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Keuchel to Sox, 3 years, 55.55 million; 4th year team option


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4 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

You mean like...Moncada?   But with a better eye?   He had a .950 OPS at AAA.  He had an .800 OPS in the impossible Birmingham park between 2017-18; an .850 OPS in 16-17 at A+, and a 1.000 OPS in three years in college...all while playing the hardest defensive position to learn.  And you say his hit tool is "highly questionable"???.  Again...Soxtalk has lost their minds on Collins...we should be SOOOO excited to see him DH next year full time and instead we want the fossilized remains of EE??   

You really don’t seem to understand the impact that the juiced ball had on the International League this past year.  I mean, Ryan Goins had a .937 OPS in 300+ at-bats for the Knights if that gives you a sense of how ridiculous the offensive environment.  I’m not saying Collins had a bad year, but it wasn’t the elite offensive season you are thinking it was.  That being said, he did do better after the swing changes so there is reason for optimism.

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19 minutes ago, bmags said:

Yes, though decent chance we can get a fast rising college pitcher this year. I do love we still have our second round pick.

I fully expect a polished college arm in the 1st who can either help us in a few years or quickly used as trade bait.  It really is nice having our 2nd round pick and I hope they snag another prep guy in next year’s draft.

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14 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

At what point do you think he hits the wall?  He'll be 37.5 at the all star game.  Guys drop off quickly.  He was very good last year but his 2019 numbers don't help us and delaying Collins development for a year for maybe an extra win?  And then EE retires?  Pointless.  

Where in the world do you think Collins plays in 2021?  I know many here will say “Vaughn is just a prospect”, but odds are the kid will be ready by OD 2021.

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1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You really don’t seem to understand the impact that the juiced ball had on the International League this past year.  I mean, Ryan Goins had a .937 OPS in 300+ at-bats for the Knights if that gives you a sense of how ridiculous the offensive environment.  I’m not saying Collins had a bad year, but it wasn’t the elite offensive season you are thinking it was.  That being said, he did do better after the swing changes so there is reason for optimism.

And you really don't seem to understand that Collins has a major pedigree...he was BA's freshman of the year at Miami, as a junior he led all college players in walks, he won the Buster Posey award as best college catcher.  He was a top ten draft pick.  In 2017 he was selected to the Futures game and  He led all minor league players in walks in 2018...was a Southern league all star...mid year and year end.   And yes he had a .950 OPS in 2019....then had 30 terrible at bats in June, wherein you and everyone else on Soxtalk determined he's not good...and then in his final 30 at bats in September he had a .930 OPS.   Every other fan base in baseball would be excited about Collins and we wan a 37 year old fading star. I surrender.    

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2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Where in the world do you think Collins plays in 2021?  I know many here will say “Vaughn is just a prospect”, but odds are the kid will be ready by OD 2021.

50 games at catcher, 50 games at 1st 50 games at DH.   McCann is gone by 2021.  Abreu will need more rest.   

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3 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

And you really don't seem to understand that Collins has a major pedigree...he was BA's freshman of the year at Miami, as a junior he led all college players in walks, he won the Buster Posey award as best college catcher.  He was a top ten draft pick.  In 2017 he was selected to the Futures game and  He led all minor league players in walks in 2018...was a Southern league all star...mid year and year end.   And yes he had a .950 OPS in 2019....then had 30 terrible at bats in June, wherein you and everyone else on Soxtalk determined he's not good...and then in his final 30 at bats in September he had a .930 OPS.   Every other fan base in baseball would be excited about Collins and we wan a 37 year old fading star. I surrender.    

Probably because it's time to win. Honestly, I was one of Collins' few backers last year when times got tough, but if Collins sucks this year again, the Sox not only won't be able to use him as a decent chip in a trade package but will once again have a hole at DH. In today's game, it's relatively easy or at least should be relatively easy to find a DH who can get you 30+ homers which is exactly what Encarnacion can do.

Also, what does pedigree even mean? All of these guys are accomplished or they wouldn't in the majors.

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3 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

And you really don't seem to understand that Collins has a major pedigree...he was BA's freshman of the year at Miami, as a junior he led all college players in walks, he won the Buster Posey award as best college catcher.  He was a top ten draft pick.  In 2017 he was selected to the Futures game and  He led all minor league players in walks in 2018...was a Southern league all star...mid year and year end.   And yes he had a .950 OPS in 2019....then had 30 terrible at bats in June, wherein you and everyone else on Soxtalk determined he's not good...and then in his final 30 at bats in September he had a .930 OPS.   Every other fan base in baseball would be excited about Collins and we wan a 37 year old fading star. I surrender.    

Lol...you have no fucking clue what you are talking about.  I actually like Collins and believe he could become a good hitter.  His bad stretch with the White Sox last summer has no bearing on my thought process.  The reality is Collins has a questionable hit tool and this has been the case since he was drafted.  Maybe the swing changes ultimately work, maybe they don’t.  Either way, the DH spot won’t be available for him come 2021.  So if my options are adding a guy who was 30% above league average as a hitter last year on a one year deal or hand considerable at-bats to a guy with question marks that has no obvious path to being a regular one year from now, I know which route I’m going.

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8 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

50 games at catcher, 50 games at 1st 50 games at DH.   McCann is gone by 2021.  Abreu will need more rest.   

You think they’re going to play Abreu & Vaughn only 110 games each in 2021?  That is not happening buddy.  Collins can have a role going forward, but he’s got to be able to stick behind the plate for it to be meaningful at all.  There simply won’t be a ton of playing at those two spots and Grandal will certainly get a piece of the action when he’s not catching.

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18 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

If defense had absolutely nothing to do with how many runs a pitcher gives up, you'd be right.

But it does, so...

It isn't just his FIP it's his stuff too and I know everyone likes to compare every soft tosser to Buehrle but he is a outlier.

At some point the wheels are going to come off and three years means we will be the ones left holding the bag. I am not impressed with the offseason at all we resigned Abreu for ridiculous money and then did the same to Keuchel.

Is this really the best we can do? Grandal, Abreu and Keuchel? Two of those guys were looking for pillow contracts in the offseason I guess we get to be the sucker who gives them a long term deal after other teams extracted most of their surplus value and they moved into their early to mid 30's.

Edited by wrathofhahn
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I thought this was a super interesting quote about Keuchel & Gonzalez and the potential pairing with Grandal:

Quote

Keuchel avoids the heart of the strike zone at all costs. Only 18.3 percent of the pitches he threw last season, less than one in every five, were in the interior of the zone (meaning more than one baseball’s width inside the strike zone). Just check out his pitch location heatmaps from 2019 with the Braves — where he got to pitch to another elite framer, Tyler Flowers. […]

Only two regular starting pitchers stayed out of the heart of the zone more often than Keuchel in 2019: Gio Gonzalez — now Keuchel’s teammate in Chicago — and Zach Davies. Both Gonzalez and Davies were Brewers last season. Guess who was their catcher in Milwaukee?

https://www.soxmachine.com/2019/12/22/white-sox-a-serious-team-with-dallas-keuchel-if-not-a-contender/

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1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Lol...you have no fucking clue what you are talking about.  I actually like Collins and believe he could become a good hitter.  His bad stretch with the White Sox last summer has no bearing on my thought process.  The reality is Collins has a questionable hit tool and this has been the case since he was drafted.  Maybe the swing changes ultimately work, maybe they don’t.  Either way, the DH spot won’t be available for him come 2021.  So if my options are adding a guy who was 30% above league average as a hitter last year on a one year deal or hand considerable at-bats to a guy with question marks that has no obvious path to being a regular one year from now, I know which route I’m going.

I love the civility on Soxtalk.   "No fucking clue"?    And yet...all 37 year old DH's perform exactly as they did in younger years in perpetuity.  Just plug in the numbers in your Xbox.  Meanwhile we deny that Zack Collins has an extraordinary batting eye and plus power but will likely not hit so many singles so there is no spot for him on the team...so let's go back to the old Sox plan.  I wonder if Melky is still available.

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1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You think they’re going to play Abreu & Vaughn only 110 games each in 2021?  That is not happening buddy.  Collins can have a role going forward, but he’s got to be able to stick behind the plate for it to be meaningful at all.  There simply won’t be a ton of playing at those two spots and Grandal will certainly get a piece of the action when he’s not catching.

I think Abreu begins being phased out and Vaughn will be a rookie.  If Collins can hit 30 homers and walk 100 times as a lefty batter for the next ten years...I'd find a spot for him.   Still I respect your dogged love of really really old DH sorts.

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10 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

It isn't just his FIP it's his stuff too and I know everyone likes to compare every soft tosser to Buehrle but he is a outlier.

At some point the wheels are going to come off and three years means we will be the ones left holding the bag. I am not impressed with the offseason at all we resigned Abreu for ridiculous money and then did the same to Keuchel.

Is this really the best we can do? Grandal, Abreu and Keuchel? Two of those guys were looking for pillow contracts in the offseason I guess we get to be the sucker who gives them a long term deal after other teams extracted most of their surplus value and they moved into their early to mid 30's.

Wheeler is obviously younger than Keuchel , but there’s no guarantee on the health of Cole or Strasburg, either.  The more you study the career arcs of guys with 97+ average fastballs, especially after it took Zack 2 1/2 years for him to make a full comeback last time...there’s just a lot of ways for that deal to go wrong.

Other than signing Rendon for the rest of his career at age 31 or Machado/Harper/Betts, not sure who you’re pining for here.

It wouldn’t be shocking for the Phillies to still miss out on the playoffs in that division, fwiw.

 

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1 hour ago, soxfan49 said:

Probably because it's time to win. Honestly, I was one of Collins' few backers last year when times got tough, but if Collins sucks this year again, the Sox not only won't be able to use him as a decent chip in a trade package but will once again have a hole at DH. In today's game, it's relatively easy or at least should be relatively easy to find a DH who can get you 30+ homers which is exactly what Encarnacion can do.

Also, what does pedigree even mean? All of these guys are accomplished or they wouldn't in the majors.

Why are you, the Collins backer, going to assume he sucks next year? What if Robert sucks? What if Giolito sucks?   Should we bring in more old guys because we fear the young guys will suck based on his first 30 at bats in the majors...and ignore his .930 OPS in his last 30 at bats in the majors?  Collins madness.    

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16 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I love the civility on Soxtalk.   "No fucking clue"?    And yet...all 37 year old DH's perform exactly as they did in younger years in perpetuity.  Just plug in the numbers in your Xbox.  Meanwhile we deny that Zack Collins has an extraordinary batting eye and plus power but will likely not hit so many singles so there is no spot for him on the team...so let's go back to the old Sox plan.  I wonder if Melky is still available.

Sorry, but I’m not going to be civil when you make sweeping generalizations and lump me in with them.  You accused me of not liking Collins because of his cold stretch with the Sox during the summer, despite the fact I’ve been arguing in support of him most of the winter.  But our roster construction has changed and there is no clear path for him to become a regular anytime soon.  So if I can get a guy who was as good as EE last year and take some pressure off the rest of the young guys I’m going do it.  And you’re right, a 37 year old can fall off a cliff and if that were to happen we’d have Collins ready for his opportunity.  If he doesn’t fall off a cliff, we suddenly have a high end hitter to help anchor our lineup and have an interesting guy in Collins who provides great depth.

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2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Sorry, but I’m not going to be civil when you make sweeping generalizations and lump me in with them.  You accused me of not liking Collins because of his cold stretch with the Sox during the summer, despite the fact I’ve been arguing in support of him most of the winter.  But our roster construction has changed and there is no clear path for him to become a regular anytime soon.  So if I can get a guy who was as good as EE last year and take some pressure off the rest of the young guys I’m going do it.  And you’re right, a 37 year old can fall off a cliff and if that were to happen we’d have Collins ready for his opportunity.  If he doesn’t fall off a cliff, we suddenly have a high end hitter to help anchor our lineup and have an interesting guy in Collins who provides great depth.

We should explore trading Collins for Nelson Cruz AND sign EE.  Cruz had a way better year than EE.   

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7 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Why are you, the Collins backer, going to assume he sucks next year? What if Robert sucks? What if Giolito sucks?   Should we bring in more old guys because we fear the young guys will suck based on his first 30 at bats in the majors...and ignore his .930 OPS in his last 30 at bats in the majors?  Collins madness.    

Where did I assume he will suck? I said "if" he sucks. As much as you want to support his final 30 PA's and make fun of Soxtalk for declaring him bad right off the bat, the PA's before the final 30 were greater in number and so he was worse in a larger sample size.

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2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I fully expect a polished college arm in the 1st who can either help us in a few years or quickly used as trade bait.  It really is nice having our 2nd round pick and I hope they snag another prep guy in next year’s draft.

Yes and no.  There will be a nice selection of arms at 11...but as usual it all depends who falls...who develops...etc.  I mean if a bunch of pitchers have greats springs and there's a run on them and guys like Patrick Baily or Blaze Jordan are sitting there it's not a given an arm will be taken.  I agree with taking arms and all...but there's a lot variables.

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17 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Why are you, the Collins backer, going to assume he sucks next year? What if Robert sucks? What if Giolito sucks?   Should we bring in more old guys because we fear the young guys will suck based on his first 30 at bats in the majors...and ignore his .930 OPS in his last 30 at bats in the majors?  Collins madness.    

You are really drawing some serious conclusions based on a 30 at-bat sample that involved a .400 BABIP.

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With the 26th man on the roster I see no reason why EE and Collins can’t exist on the roster together. Having a 3rd catcher option will allow lots of different lineup constructions. Sure Collins will get less ABs that way but it helps you guard against bad offensive stretches when key guys struggle and you have absolute garbage to turn to. 

Edited by BFirebird
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5 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

So he'll be Kyle Schwarber...500 game MLB career of .235/.339/.490.  Strike out 30% of the time.  Yup.  I'm fine with that.  

I've been  liking your arguments for Collins . I only question that you accepted the hit tool argument. Yes if we look back on his early development the hit tool along with the K's and lack of reliable info on his progress of catching skills was making a lot of people nervous. There also isn't a large sample size to go with making an argument for a much improved hit tool.

However in the last stage of his development at AAA with 367 PA's he hit 282. ( his highest ever batting avg.) ,403 OBP  which is elite , .548 SLG.. and .961 OPS both high marks for his MiLB career.

in August after he was send back down in 99 PA's he hit .338 .455 OBP and .763 SLG and 1.217 OPS . As crazy as these numbers are they might be even better if we count the 12 games in July after he was send down because his BA in those games was .348 but I can't find a way to add up the total s unless I do it myself which I'm not doing.

So if there is bias because of his early career we can use the most recent bias ( which really should count the most) to build a case that his hit tool is much improved.Sox need to hold onto him at all costs.

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18 minutes ago, Wanne said:

Yes and no.  There will be a nice selection of arms at 11...but as usual it all depends who falls...who develops...etc.  I mean if a bunch of pitchers have greats springs and there's a run on them and guys like Patrick Baily or Blaze Jordan are sitting there it's not a given an arm will be taken.  I agree with taking arms and all...but there's a lot variables.

I just meant I think they will lean towards an arm.  Obviously BPA should hold unless the difference between two guys is fairly narrow.

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  • Heads22 changed the title to Keuchel to Sox, 3 years, 55.55 million; 4th year team option
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