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Keuchel to Sox, 3 years, 55.55 million; 4th year team option

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10 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

You just throw Castellanos in there with one guy who will get 1/$10 and Collins?

At this point, Castellanos isn’t very likely.

Honestly...why would we give at bats to 100 year old EE or spend $100 million on Castellanos rather than hand the bat to Collins?  Collins had a .951 OPS at Charlotte, he's a lefty and his two prime skills...elite walk rate and plus power are things that should play in the majors.   Everyone on the board is so confident about all the prospects but we've given up on a 24 year old lefty who could hit 30 homers and walk 100 times...because he had a bad 30 at bats in June/July???   He had a .760 OPS in September.  Why is he not Kyle Schwarber?  Why would that not be a great addition to the team?  

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2 minutes ago, shakes said:

And if there is any sustained success, at some point one of the big name young players/prospects will be dealt to fill a need. Vaughn may be that guy. I agree just keep getting good players. 

That's why I'm excited by the DK signing. Spend money and don't give up assets now. For anyone who thinks this was an overpay, it's not. This is what paying market value looks like. If this contract hurts future success a lot of other things went wrong.

The Sox need to find a way to keep their prospects through this rebuild and keep drafting good ones.  The Cubs have fallen apart because the well has run dry and they were unable to draft any pitching.

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Just now, michelangelosmonkey said:

Honestly...why would we give at bats to 100 year old EE or spend $100 million on Castellanos rather than hand the bat to Collins?  Collins had a .951 OPS at Charlotte, he's a lefty and his two prime skills...elite walk rate and plus power are things that should play in the majors.   Everyone on the board is so confident about all the prospects but we've given up on a 24 year old lefty who could hit 30 homers and walk 100 times...because he had a bad 30 at bats in June/July???   He had a .760 OPS in September.  Why is he not Kyle Schwarber?  Why would that not be a great addition to the team?  

By signing Grandal and Keuchel, we are saying our window opens in 2020. In which case, you sign EE and let the cards fall where they may. If Collins hits well this season, he will have an opportunity to be our DH/1B/back up catcher. 

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4 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

The Sox need to find a way to keep their prospects through this rebuild and keep drafting good ones.  The Cubs have fallen apart because the well has run dry and they were unable to draft any pitching.

That will require heavy changes through the org. It's needed, but a different topic.

Just like FA is needed, trades will be required too. So not giving up any more worthwhile assets this year to keep a 4-5 year window open is a win for now. I like how they are positioned to compete now and in the near future. You just never know when the next Verlander type will come available through trade, so keep positioned to be involved when it does.

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1 minute ago, SonofaRoache said:

By signing Grandal and Keuchel, we are saying our window opens in 2020. In which case, you sign EE and let the cards fall where they may. If Collins hits well this season, he will have an opportunity to be our DH/1B/back up catcher. 

I think there is a very real chance 25 year old Collins will be better than 37 year old EE next year.  For the same reason I don't want 35 year old Adam Jones to play centerfield just in case Robert isn't good, or 38 year old Robinson Cano just in case Madrigal isn't great.  The goal is to roll out all the young guys and have them meld into a machine.  Just because your window is open doesn't mean you should be afraid to let talent rise.  

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3 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

By signing Grandal and Keuchel, we are saying our window opens in 2020. In which case, you sign EE and let the cards fall where they may. If Collins hits well this season, he will have an opportunity to be our DH/1B/back up catcher. 

Right, if we spent all this money to compete this year, are we really gonna go into the season giving regular PAs to an unproven guy like Collins? With the history of just how bad our DH spot has been and our track record with developing prospects, should we really be confident that Collins will be able to produce? We've been down that path before and it's almost never turned out well. I don't care how old EE is, the guy just hits. If you sign him, you're getting a 120 wRC+ you can plug into the 5th spot of your lineup. I still see posts about how we still need so many things to go our way for next season to be a potential playoff year, well, getting an established DH checks one thing off that list.

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6 minutes ago, soxfan3530 said:

Why are people acting like EE is washed up and not good anymore? He would instantly be one of the top 4 bats in our lineup. 

Seriously...

Go look at how he hit last year and the past few years. He had an injury mid season and still crushed the ball in the 2nd half. He was hitting in the middle of the lineup for a 100+ win Yankees team. But all of a sudden he's too much of a scrub and worse than the guy who's only hit AAA pitching well. Also it's not like he's a 37 year old asking for a 4 year deal. More likely than not, he's here for one year. I'd look at him as an insurance policy. If Collins mashes, great, you can play Collins and maybe flip EE at the deadline. If Collins struggles, you still have a DH.

Edited by chw42
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2 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Right, if we spent all this money to compete this year, are we really gonna go into the season giving regular PAs to an unproven guy like Collins? With the history of just how bad our DH spot has been and our track record with developing prospects, should we really be confident that Collins will be able to produce? We've been down that path before and it's almost never turned out well. I don't care how old EE is, the guy just hits. If you sign him, you're getting a 120 wRC+ you can plug into the 5th spot of your lineup. I still see posts about how we still need so many things to go our way for next season to be a potential playoff year, well, getting an established DH checks one thing off that list.

If we define "proven" as two years in a row of elite play...they are ALL unproven...Giolito, Lopez, Cease, Kopech, Moncado, Tim Anderson, Madrigal, Robert, Vaughan, Collins, Jimenez.   We don't want to plug in old dinosaurs to get in the way of these guys beginning to prove themselves.  Collins college history and AAA history suggests he could be as good a hitter as any of them...and a lefty...and 24.   Give him a shot!!!!!! 

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1 minute ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

If we define "proven" as two years in a row of elite play...they are ALL unproven...Giolito, Lopez, Cease, Kopech, Moncado, Tim Anderson, Madrigal, Robert, Vaughan, Collins, Jimenez.   We don't want to plug in old dinosaurs to get in the way of these guys beginning to prove themselves.  Collins college history and AAA history suggests he could be as good a hitter as any of them...and a lefty...and 24.   Give him a shot!!!!!! 

Honestly I see a guy who has trouble making contact at the ML level. And while he may get better with experience, I'm not sure we have the luxury of letting him figure it out while we're in a contention window without a contingency plan. If he's hitting poorly by mid May and getting regular PAs as a DH vs. RHP most of this board will be wondering why we didn't sign a more experienced guy.

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5 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Seriously...

Go look at how he hit last year and the past few years. He had an injury mid season and still crushed the ball in the 2nd half. He was hitting in the middle of the lineup for a 100+ win Yankees team. But all of a sudden he's too much of a scrub and worse than the guy who's only hit AAA pitching well. Also it's not like he's a 37 year old asking for a 4 year deal. More likely than not, he's here for one year.

He's NOT too much of scrub.  I think he will have a fine year this year...for a slow, 37 year old, right handed hitting DH making $8 million in the twilight of his career.  I just think 24 year old lefty, back up catcher, earning $500,000 will hit better...and could become either a major part of the team for 5 years...or an attractive trade piece.  Why would you not want that?

 

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3 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Honestly I see a guy who has trouble making contact at the ML level. And while he may get better with experience, I'm not sure we have the luxury of letting him figure it out while we're in a contention window without a contingency plan. If he's hitting poorly by mid May and getting regular PAs as a DH vs. RHP most of this board will be wondering why we didn't sign a more experienced guy.

Based on 30 at bats in June???  Come on...he has an elite batters eye and plus power.  Did I mention he's lefty, 24 and had a .950 OPS in AAA in 300 at bats???   Are we benching Robert when he has a bad couple of weeks in May?   We chose a lane...trust in young talent...I really don't want to return to the lane of ...sign other teams old stars when they no longer want them.  

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This team currently has just as many ifs as the failed teams right before the total rebuild. They seem to be better ifs but they are still there. Robert and Madrigal being rookies who knows what will happen. Eloy really struggled for quite a while. Mazara is an if. Abreu a year older. TA isn't going to hit .330 in all likelihood. So really the offense is still short.

Pitching wise, Giolito few saw coming, hopefully it's real. Cease and Looez struggled for the most part . Will they step up? How will the others return from injury? How will the bullpen be supplemented? And most importantly will the team be able to stay healthy? 

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13 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Based on 30 at bats in June???  Come on...he has an elite batters eye and plus power.  Did I mention he's lefty, 24 and had a .950 OPS in AAA in 300 at bats???   Are we benching Robert when he has a bad couple of weeks in May?   We chose a lane...trust in young talent...I really don't want to return to the lane of ...sign other teams old stars when they no longer want them.  

I'm more or less basing that from what I saw in September, AFTER he got overmatched in June. He did play better in September, but he still struck out 36% of the time. When bat meets ball, Collins is very good. He had good exit velos and hard hit % in his short stint last year. But he's got a lot of things to work on in his swing to make sure he can at least make contact 70% of the time. He was clearly overmatched by fastballs and velocity last year at the ML level if you go look at just how poorly he hit off fastballs last year and his whiff rate on it. You're basically praying he adjusts this off-season and ST if you seriously think he can give you a .350 wOBA next year. Because that's what he'd have to do to be better than EE next year. That's the bar. The $8-10 mil you're giving to EE isn't coming out of your pocket and it's not a financial burden on the franchise. I'm not sure why you wouldn't make that investment to shore up a spot that's haunted us in the past on previous contending teams.

Edited by chw42

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I think it's really foolish to punt Collins for EE.  He should be our backup C in 2021 and we have no idea how he's going to look at the plate based on 100 ABs last year. 

You can pick up a DH at the deadline if he sucks or try our beloved fat body in AAA.

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6 minutes ago, chw42 said:

I'm more or less basing that from what I saw in September, AFTER he got overmatched in June. He did play better in September, but he still struck out 36% of the time. When bat meets ball, Collins is very good. He had good exit velos and hard hit % in his short stint last year. But he's got a lot of things to work on in his swing to make sure he can at least make contact 70% of the time. He was clearly overmatched by fastballs and velocity last year at the ML level if you go look at just how poorly he hit off fastballs last year and his whiff rate on it. You're basically praying he adjusts this off-season and ST if you seriously think he can give you a .350 wOBA next year. Because that's what he'd have to do to be better than EE next year. That's the bar. The $8-10 mil you're giving to EE isn't coming out of your pocket and it's not a financial burden on the franchise. I'm not sure why you wouldn't make that investment to shore up a spot that's haunted us in the past on previous contending teams.

The argument is it’s more worthwhile to play Collins and you have a replacement who can be mentored by Grandal the next 3-4 seasons (it took Flowers even longer to establish himself in ATL) or you trade him at fifty cents on the dollar.   All things considered, there should be a plethora of Abreu/Dickerson/Puig/EE/Gardner types available at the trade deadline for little more than salary relief.   By that time, they’ll know more about Vaughn’s potential timeframe as well.

Of course, there’s always that risk starting out with Leury, Mendick and Collins the first weeks of the season and getting buried under .500.  But nobody should run away with this division that early.

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2 minutes ago, chw42 said:

I'm more or less basing that from what I saw in September, AFTER he got overmatched in June. He did play better in September, but he still struck out 36% of the time. When bat meets ball, Collins is very good. He had good exit velos and hard hit % in his short stint last year. But he's got a lot of things to work on in his swing to make sure he can at least make contact 70% of the time. He was clearly overmatched by fastballs and velocity last year at the ML level if you go look at just how poorly he hit off fastballs last year and his whiff rate on it. You're basically praying he adjusts this off-season and ST if you seriously think he can give you a .350 wOBA next year. Because that's what he'd have to do to be better than EE next year. That's the bar.

Yes but this is not win in 2020 or disband.  This is how do we build a juggernaut.  There is zero question that EE is less risky for 2020 than Collins...unless you measure the risk of wasting a year of development of Collins...or you measure the risk of people at 37 aging really quickly.   I think it's nice that you didn't just take into account his 30 terrible June at bats but also took into account his 60 September at  bats before writing him off.  But...his last 30 at bats he put up a .930 OPS.  You suggest he has things to work on...but if Grandal and Abreau and EE and Mccann are splitting 1800 at bats between 1b, DH and C...where are the at bats for Collins?  Are you sending him back down??  

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10 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Yes but this is not win in 2020 or disband.  This is how do we build a juggernaut.  There is zero question that EE is less risky for 2020 than Collins...unless you measure the risk of wasting a year of development of Collins...or you measure the risk of people at 37 aging really quickly.   I think it's nice that you didn't just take into account his 30 terrible June at bats but also took into account his 60 September at  bats before writing him off.  But...his last 30 at bats he put up a .930 OPS.  You suggest he has things to work on...but if Grandal and Abreau and EE and Mccann are splitting 1800 at bats between 1b, DH and C...where are the at bats for Collins?  Are you sending him back down??  

I think it'd depend on how good Collins looks in ST, specifically how he hits against ML-level fastballs. I know he doesn't have much more to prove down in AAA, but if he still struggles in ST against velocity and you do sign a DH, he'd have nowhere to go but AAA. I don't see that as bad for his development since he's still just 24 and does have things to work on.

There is a chance father time finally catches up with EE, but for hitters like him they are supposed to slow down around their early 30s and never hit again. He's bucked the trend. He did go from an elite to a good hitter after his early 30s, but he's been a consistently good hitter ever since. I think there's a much better chance he continues that than Collins figuring it out at the ML level this year.

Edited by chw42

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1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Honestly...why would we give at bats to 100 year old EE or spend $100 million on Castellanos rather than hand the bat to Collins?  Collins had a .951 OPS at Charlotte, he's a lefty and his two prime skills...elite walk rate and plus power are things that should play in the majors.   Everyone on the board is so confident about all the prospects but we've given up on a 24 year old lefty who could hit 30 homers and walk 100 times...because he had a bad 30 at bats in June/July???   He had a .760 OPS in September.  Why is he not Kyle Schwarber?  Why would that not be a great addition to the team?  

It's not that people aren't giving him a chance...it's that Collins struggled to make contact at every level until 2019 at AAA with a juiced baseball that heavily inflated AAA hitting stats. Collins hit tool is highly questionable until proven otherwise. 

Collins hit tool was so bad in the low minors that until his swing change and AAA emergence, I thought he was a borderline non prospect. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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7 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

It's not that people aren't giving him a chance...it's that Collins struggled to make contact at every level until 2019 at AAA with a juiced baseball that heavily inflated AAA hitting stats. Collins hit tool is highly questionable until proven otherwise. 

You mean like...Moncada?   But with a better eye?   He had a .950 OPS at AAA.  He had an .800 OPS in the impossible Birmingham park between 2017-18; an .850 OPS in 16-17 at A+, and a 1.000 OPS in three years in college...all while playing the hardest defensive position to learn.  And you say his hit tool is "highly questionable"???.  Again...Soxtalk has lost their minds on Collins...we should be SOOOO excited to see him DH next year full time and instead we want the fossilized remains of EE??   

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3 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

You mean like...Moncada?   But with a better eye?   He had a .950 OPS at AAA.  He had an .800 OPS in the impossible Birmingham park between 2017-18; an .850 OPS in 16-17 at A+, and a 1.000 OPS in three years in college...all while playing the hardest defensive position to learn.  And you say his hit tool is "highly questionable"???.  Again...Soxtalk has lost their minds on Collins...we should be SOOOO excited to see him DH next year full time and instead we want the fossilized remains of EE??   

Yes his hit tool is horrible. He’s got the power and a good eye, but he seems like someone that would struggle to hit over .225 in the majors.

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