Keuchel to Sox, 3 years, 55.55 million; 4th year team option

[michelangelosmonkey]

8 minutes ago, fathom said:

Yes his hit tool is horrible. He’s got the power and a good eye, but he seems like someone that would struggle to hit over .225 in the majors.

So he'll be Kyle Schwarber...500 game MLB career of .235/.339/.490.  Strike out 30% of the time.  Yup.  I'm fine with that.  

[SonofaRoache]

46 minutes ago, mqr said:

Seriously though, wtf are the twins going to do about that staff 

The Twins will make trades if they can't sign Ryu. 

[daggins]

2 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

The Twins will make trades if they can't sign Ryu. 

Most likely, although the trade market for starters is not exactly booming with great options. Side effect of more teams trying to compete.

[ChiSox59]

Berrios, Odorizzi, Lewis Thorpe, Randy Dobnak and Devin Smeltzer isn’t striking fear in anyone. 

[bmags]

50 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

Probably hope they score 13 runs every night again 😅

They aren’t that bad. Berrios/Odorizzi Is a good 1/2 and Pineda will be back after a pretty good year.

They are also one year removed from getting pretty good production out of the fringe free agents like Perez.

There are still players like they signed last year, I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt since unlike the Sox they proved they can turn marginal FAs into production.

[thxfrthmmrs]

12 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

Then you don't get top talent. Be the Reds. Make the playoffs every 15 years when all the stars align.

As an aside, I actually don't think the years have anything to do with it -- and I don't have proof of this, just my read on it -- I think the problem is actually the total dollars. If you're a billionaire (or billion-dollar enterprise), you aren't thinking about your asset 12 months at a time. You're looking long-term. It's how it works with sponsorship contracts, TV deals, etc. The accounting behind it is considering NPV, and is considering all the money spent the moment the deal is signed. I don't think 9 years scared Jerry off at all, I think $324M or whatever is what scared him off. It could be over 20 years and would be even better.

Do you seriously think that?

It absolutely has everything to do with the years. There is a reason the longest committed contract to a baseball pitcher is only 7 years. Had Cole been looking for a 6/$216M contract Sox would absolutely be in the running. There is only one team who in the history of MLB gave 9 years of top dollar to a pitcher, and that team is worth 3x the White Sox. 

I don’t need to harp on the risk of an expensive contract to a pitcher, not to mention on top of that a 9 year deal. The risk of the pitcher coming down with career altering injury or just losing effectiveness increases significantly with a longer deal.

Also quoting $36M AAV is misleading, Cole would almost be less effective or even a shell of his former self by years 7 or 8 of the deal, so you’re essentially deferring his current salary to later years by giving him a longer deal. Also giving a deal like that would essentially close the window on any hope of resigning extending a Moncada, Giolito or even Anderson or Kopech. It’s just not a good baseball move for the Sox.

Of the things to complain about how this offseason went, not outbidding Yankees for Cole is the very last one of them.

[Eminor3rd]

7 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Do you seriously think that?

It absolutely has everything to do with the years. There is a reason the longest committed contract to a baseball pitcher is only 7 years. Had Cole been looking for a 6/$216M contract Sox would absolutely be in the running. There is only one team who in the history of MLB gave 9 years of top dollar to a pitcher, and that team is worth 3x the White Sox. 

I don’t need to harp on the risk of an expensive contract to a pitcher, not to mention on top of that a 9 year deal. The risk of the pitcher coming down with career altering injury or just losing effectiveness increases significantly with a longer deal.

Also quoting $36M AAV is misleading, Cole would almost be less effective or even a shell of his former self by years 7 or 8 of the deal, so you’re essentially deferring his current salary to later years by giving him a longer deal. Also giving a deal like that would essentially close the window on any hope of resigning extending a Moncada, Giolito or even Anderson or Kopech. It’s just not a good baseball move for the Sox.

Of the things to complain about how this offseason went, not outbidding Yankees for Cole is the very last one of them.

I absolutely think that. It doesn’t matter how many years past his effectiveness you have the guy. You can release him whenever you want. At the end of the day, you committed x dollars to the guy, regardless of how long it goes. We don’t think of it that way as fans, but the accounting department does because it makes sense. When ownership is involved, it’s an investment just like a capital improvement project. Once the money is committed, it’s gone. We’ve heard multiple GMs characterize big signings that way, like Dombrowski/Prince Fielder where he Essentially said “This wasn’t part of my plan, this was Illitch deciding he wanted to buy another player,” or when Cashman was “forced” to sign Rafael Soriano by the Steinbrenners and said as much. It’s why the Lerners are paying Scherzer over 14 years instead of the seven he’s playing — it’s just a payment structure they like better. Fans will be cutting “OMG we could go get player x if the Lerners weren’t still paying Scherzer to NOT play!” But that won’t be true at all. The money tonScherzer was gone the moment the ink dried on the contract. The rest is just financing.

 

[thxfrthmmrs]

21 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

I absolutely think that. It doesn’t matter how many years past his effectiveness you have the guy. You can release him whenever you want. At the end of the day, you committed x dollars to the guy, regardless of how long it goes. We don’t think of it that way as fans, but the accounting department does because it makes sense. When ownership is involved, it’s an investment just like a capital improvement project. Once the money is committed, it’s gone. We’ve heard multiple GMs characterize big signings that way, like Dombrowski/Prince Fielder where he Essentially said “This wasn’t part of my plan, this was Illitch deciding he wanted to buy another player,” or when Cashman was “forced” to sign Rafael Soriano by the Steinbrenners and said as much. It’s why the Lerners are paying Scherzer over 14 years instead of the seven he’s playing — it’s just a payment structure they like better. Fans will be cutting “OMG we could go get player x if the Lerners weren’t still paying Scherzer to NOT play!” But that won’t be true at all. The money tonScherzer was gone the moment the ink dried on the contract. The rest is just financing.

 

I am completely aware of how the contract is accounted on the team's books, but what I am suggesting is the number of years a pitcher needs to be effective, and not the number of years the contract would be accounted across.

Put it this way, how much value does a pitcher like Cole get you? 6 WAR? 7? The value he gives you per season is capped. So in a $324M contract, Cole would have to pitch at an elite level for 6 years to justify the contract. With how volatile pitchers have proven to be, especially aging power pitchers, that is a huge risk. So you can argue that it doesn't matter id the contract is accounted over 9 or 20 years, it absolutely matters in this 9 year contract Cole has to be elite for 6. 

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

So he'll be Kyle Schwarber...500 game MLB career of .235/.339/.490.  Strike out 30% of the time.  Yup.  I'm fine with that.  

The fear with Collins is that he's going to be flirting with Mendoza constantly. If Collins can hit .235-.245 he's going to do what Schwarber did this year, but with an OBP around ~.360. Collins power and eye are unquestionable. It's a matter of whether or not he makes enough contact for them to be useful. 

I think he's worth a 1 season trial. 

Edited December 22, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[chitownsportsfan]

I'm OK with this deal but need a couple more.   I think you can project him for about 160 innings and an ERA around 4.20 so around 2.5 bWAR, maybe a little better if Chicago has a really good defense once Robert and Madrigal are up and settled.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

Berrios, Odorizzi, Lewis Thorpe, Randy Dobnak and Devin Smeltzer isn’t striking fear in anyone. 

Pineda and Graterol...

[Y2Jimmy0]

3 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I think there is a very real chance 25 year old Collins will be better than 37 year old EE next year.  For the same reason I don't want 35 year old Adam Jones to play centerfield just in case Robert isn't good, or 38 year old Robinson Cano just in case Madrigal isn't great.  The goal is to roll out all the young guys and have them meld into a machine.  Just because your window is open doesn't mean you should be afraid to let talent rise.  

Do you think Zack Collins will have a better year than Jose Abreu? 

[Y2Jimmy0]

3 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

It's not that people aren't giving him a chance...it's that Collins struggled to make contact at every level until 2019 at AAA with a juiced baseball that heavily inflated AAA hitting stats. Collins hit tool is highly questionable until proven otherwise. 

Collins hit tool was so bad in the low minors that until his swing change and AAA emergence, I thought he was a borderline non prospect. 

This is a foolish statement. Collins has shortcoming for sure but he was a really good hitter in the minors. He never had less than a 130 wRC+ in the minor leagues. 

[Y2Jimmy0]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

They aren’t that bad. Berrios/Odorizzi Is a good 1/2 and Pineda will be back after a pretty good year.

They are also one year removed from getting pretty good production out of the fringe free agents like Perez.

There are still players like they signed last year, I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt since unlike the Sox they proved they can turn marginal FAs into production.

PIneda is out for the first 30 games though. 

[ChiSox59]

25 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Pineda and Graterol...

I said OD. Pineda is suspended for 25% of the season, and they’re never going to start a guy (graterol) that has eclipsed 100 innings once in the OD rotation. 

[caulfield12]

16 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I said OD. Pineda is suspended for 25% of the season, and they’re never going to start a guy (graterol) that has eclipsed 100 innings once in the OD rotation. 

Sure, but to not discuss those names is like leaving Kopech out of the White Sox discussion.  We don’t know how Pineda will do starting the season later, but he’s still important depth.  Probably it means both teams will be slower out of the gate not having their June/July rotations in place.

Edited December 22, 2019 by caulfield12

[ChiSox59]

Just now, caulfield12 said:

Sure, but to not discuss those names is like leaving Kopech out of the White Sox discussion.  We don’t know how Pineda will do starting the season later, but he’s still important depth.  Probably it means both teams will be slower out of the gate not having their June/July rotations in place.

Again, I said OD rotation. Kopech won’t be in the Sox OD rotation either. 

Obviously Pineda will factor into their rotation come late May, and the Twins may decide to get Graterol some starts next summer. But none of that changes the fact that the Twins rotation is a clusterfuck, especially early in then season, with minimal means left to fix it. I’d be shocked if they were able to sign Ryu. 

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Again, I said OD rotation. Kopech won’t be in the Sox OD rotation either. 

Obviously Pineda will factor into their rotation come late May, and the Twins may decide to get Graterol some starts next summer. But none of that changes the fact that the Twins rotation is a clusterfuck, especially early in then season, with minimal means left to fix it. I’d be shocked if they were able to sign Ryu. 

There are still a few options remaining.  Bailey, Wood, Walker, R.Hill for second half, Felix, McHugh, Cahill, Harvey.   None are that appealing, though.

[mqr]

2 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Berrios, Odorizzi, Lewis Thorpe, Randy Dobnak and Devin Smeltzer isn’t striking fear in anyone. 

You can’t convince me you didn’t just make those names up. 

[bmags]

53 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

PIneda is out for the first 30 games though. 

That’s not that big of a deal. It’s like 2-3 bullpen games with the days off/cancellations in April. Nobody acts like Kopech isn’t on the Sox because he misses the first month.

[Chicago White Sox]

5 hours ago, shakes said:

And if there is any sustained success, at some point one of the big name young players/prospects will be dealt to fill a need. Vaughn may be that guy. I agree just keep getting good players. 

That's why I'm excited by the DK signing. Spend money and don't give up assets now. For anyone who thinks this was an overpay, it's not. This is what paying market value looks like. If this contract hurts future success a lot of other things went wrong.

Now that we’ve signed Keuchel very little chance they trade Vaughn.  More likely it will be some combo of our 2020 1st rounder, Dunning, Stiever, Dalquist, & Thompson that will help us shore up any needs come next offseason.

[bmags]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Now that we’ve signed Keuchel very little chance they trade Vaughn.  More likely it will be some combo of our 2020 1st rounder, Dunning, Stiever, Dalquist, & Thompson that will help us shore up any needs come next offseason.

Yes, though decent chance we can get a fast rising college pitcher this year. I do love we still have our second round pick.

[Chicago White Sox]

5 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I think there is a very real chance 25 year old Collins will be better than 37 year old EE next year.  For the same reason I don't want 35 year old Adam Jones to play centerfield just in case Robert isn't good, or 38 year old Robinson Cano just in case Madrigal isn't great.  The goal is to roll out all the young guys and have them meld into a machine.  Just because your window is open doesn't mean you should be afraid to let talent rise.  

The difference is Encarnacion is actually still a damn good hitter and those other guys suck.

[michelangelosmonkey]

1 hour ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Do you think Zack Collins will have a better year than Jose Abreu? 

I'm not sure what point you are trying to make.  I think Collins will be a way better hitter in 2021 if he gets 400 major league at bats this year.  If the Sox sign EE he won't. I think that is a huge mistake.  I think Collins, Madrigal, Robert, Cease and Kopech have proven everything they need in the minors and this is the year to learn if they are major leaguers.  None are likely to be instant stars...but all will be better than the garbage they had last year.  This is the year we stumble into the playoffs and next year is the year where it all comes together.  EE does nothing for that.     

[michelangelosmonkey]

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The difference is Encarnacion is actually still a damn good hitter and those other guys suck.

At what point do you think he hits the wall?  He'll be 37.5 at the all star game.  Guys drop off quickly.  He was very good last year but his 2019 numbers don't help us and delaying Collins development for a year for maybe an extra win?  And then EE retires?  Pointless.