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SonofaRoache

How good do YOU think we can be next season?

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1 hour ago, turnin' two said:

(though I am an advocate of putting Rodon in the pen where I think he could stay healthier and just dominate)

I'm a big fan of this idea

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Wow, there is some real optimism here. 

To win the division, or even to make the playoffs as a wild card, a few things will have to happen.

1. Starting pitching will need to take a huge leap forward. We all expect Giolito to repeat, or even get better. Keuchel and Gonzalez have been pretty reliable, so we can likely expect normal years out of them. After that, Lopez and Cease need to take leaps forward, or at least one of them does if Kopech steps up when he can return. Rodon will also most likely be needed for depth because you never get through a season with 6 starters. 

2. The bullpen will need to be stronger. There will a lot more games where we will need our A pitchers to hold a lead or stay close, and fewer B games where we're so far behind it doesn't matter what the pen does.  That can burn a pen out quickly if it's not deep enough or managed well enough. Just ask the Nationals. We all expect the Sox to make additions here.

3. Robert will need to hit the ground running. He's much more important to the offense than Madrigal, who is going to hit from the get go, but doesn't have the power to change a game. It would be great if he signed an extension and started Opening Day. What would hurt is if he has the growing pains Moncada had as a rookie. 

4. We need pretty good health. Every team gets injuries, and we have more depth to cover than we did last year. But we can't lose one or more of our mashers or key starters for an extended period. 

5. Renteria has to manage the team he has, with appropriate adjustments for the players hitting and pitching skills. On the offensive side, that likely means less bunting, for example. For the pitching, managing the bullpen will be critical. Managers do make a difference. 

I'm not going to predict a W-L number. But I think the team will have a shot at making the postseason. 

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1 hour ago, WBWSF said:

I don't see why the team can't win 117 games this coming 2020 season.

I don't see why an admin still hasn't banned you for being a huge troll

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Going to play this really conservative as I think this team is sitting at 85 wins right now. I'm still a little worried about the pen being able to close out important games. Plus there is a lot riding on the youngsters. Cease, Lopez, Kopech, Robert, and Madrigal all need to really hit the ground running out of the gate. I also expect a little regression to take place too with Giolito, Anderson, and Colome; but we should see that offset itself with all the additions made to the team. Should still be a really fun season, and my only expectation is to be .500 or better. Anything in addition to that is a bonus.

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If more things break right than not, I believe 90 wins is within reach.  Whether or not that has them in the chase for the division or a wild card I don't know.  But I'm optimistic and think we are in for a fun ride in 2020.

Edited by SouthWallace

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I think the Sox have a huge cone of uncertainty.  Right now, I would say around 85 wins.  If everything goes right, I could see them winning as many as 95, but if everything goes wrong, I could see them winning as few as 75, especially considering how deep the league is.  However it turns out, it should be exciting.

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14 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

I think the Sox have a huge cone of uncertainty.  Right now, I would say around 85 wins.  If everything goes right, I could see them winning as many as 95, but if everything goes wrong, I could see them winning as few as 75, especially considering how deep the league is.  However it turns out, it should be exciting.

A 3 win improvement from last season is too low unless 'everything goes wrong' scenario is our top 5 WAR guys going down with injuries.

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12 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

A 3 win improvement from last season is too low unless 'everything goes wrong' scenario is our top 5 WAR guys going down with injuries.

Here's what I think everything goes wrong is:  Colome is 2nd half Colome all season, Herrera is still bad, Marshall and Cordero face serious regression, Giolito regresses, Anderson's batted ball luck evaporates, Robert is not ready, he hits for a low average with a lot of strikeouts, Keuchel's ERA matches his FIP, Cease and Lopez do not improve, Madrigal is at the low end of his projection sub .700 OPS, and Mazara does not improve, and at least one injury for Moncada or Eloy.  Even with good seasons from Abreu, Grandal, Eloy, and Moncada, that team wins 75 games in a tough AL.  Now, I don't think all that's going to happen, but it's all plausible. 

Now reverse it:  Robert's an immediate impact player, Giolito is an all star, Kopech and Cease pitch close to their talent, Herrera is the guy he was last September, Mazara improves, Madrigal's closer to the higher end of his projections, Anderson's batted ball profile is a semi-permanent skill, Keuchel is rejuvenated... well, that could be  a 95 win team.  Lot of variables for the Sox.  Maybe harder to predict than any team in the past several years.

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I think our floor next year will be 80 wins. So if things go as expected or better, we can add 10 to 15 wins to this. I think being a .500 team at the break last year with a team not nearly as talented as this one, should inspire hope in us all. Especially since the division isn't getting any better. 

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26 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

Here's what I think everything goes wrong is:  Colome is 2nd half Colome all season, Herrera is still bad, Marshall and Cordero face serious regression, Giolito regresses, Anderson's batted ball luck evaporates, Robert is not ready, he hits for a low average with a lot of strikeouts, Keuchel's ERA matches his FIP, Cease and Lopez do not improve, Madrigal is at the low end of his projection sub .700 OPS, and Mazara does not improve, and at least one injury for Moncada or Eloy.  Even with good seasons from Abreu, Grandal, Eloy, and Moncada, that team wins 75 games in a tough AL.  Now, I don't think all that's going to happen, but it's all plausible. 

Now reverse it:  Robert's an immediate impact player, Giolito is an all star, Kopech and Cease pitch close to their talent, Herrera is the guy he was last September, Mazara improves, Madrigal's closer to the higher end of his projections, Anderson's batted ball profile is a semi-permanent skill, Keuchel is rejuvenated... well, that could be  a 95 win team.  Lot of variables for the Sox.  Maybe harder to predict than any team in the past several years.

I am pretty sure Herrera will be healthier and our division will be weak. 85 should be doable but this will be a sloppy squad. We should be better than Cubs or Bosox for a change. 

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I feel the same way about White Sox expectations. The amount of potential within the offense is honestly scary. Scary good. The pitching staff on the other hand is what makes me a little bit nervous. I hope our 2 newly aquired vets can stay healthy. If they do stay healthy and Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech dont totally bust, I think our pitching staff will be among the best in the AL. I've already prepped myself to expect Rodon and Lopez both to have alot of time coming out of the bullpen after the break. Hey, more depth! We need depth when we have alot of question marks currently in the pen. 

I predict that TA will regress to about a .290 avg but Im sure he will be working hard on his OBP because Im pretty sure he will be batting leadoff until Robert is ready for that role. Abreu's numbers will probably decline as well, and as much as I love Jose, I feel batting him 5th or maybe even 6th in the order makes alot of sense and honestly if it helps the team I dont see why Abreu wouldnt be ok with that?? (If anynody has more knowledge about that situation please fill me in.) James McCann will regress, and I also dont think Mazara is all of sudden going to become a star, but I do think he will hit .260 with about 25 Dingers. Not too shabby if that happens.

I think Grandal, Moncada, EE and Giolito will have similar seasons to 2019 which would be great.

I think Eloy and Robert are going to just CRUSH the ball this year.

I think Cease and Kopech are going to pitch great in the 2nd half and just keep improving.

I think Collins, Madrigal and Garcia will all help in major ways.

I think Ricky Renteria will do his thing. He seems like a great guy and him being bilingual is so huge for this team.

IMO we will have our hiccups in the first few monthes especially with our younger pitchers, but an amazing 2nd half is something I can see this squad pulling off.

*My HONEST prediction is 89 wins...Sox win the AL Central...Giolito, Moncada, Grandal, and Jimenez all make the All Star Team. Eloy in the Derby. Robert AL Rookie of the year*

This is my verrrry FIRST and verrrry optimistic post on Soxtalk! Dont be too hard on my positivity and lack of statistics guys!! I think we can all agree that this team is going to be extremely fun and exciting not only for White Sox fans but for Baseball fans around the league. I have not been this excited for a team since Ventura and Big Frank were in our lineup!

Lets Go White Sox!

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The Pods had Muchado and Tatis but the Sox had two more wins. So there is that. 

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Glass half full guy: Our lineup is so good that it carries the team and we roll, baby, roll to 93 wins.

Glass half empty guy: Our manager is so ordinary and our pitching so iffy and the teams in our division so fired up when they play us it never works and we finish 4 below .500.

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35 minutes ago, greg775 said:

Glass half full guy: Our lineup is so good that it carries the team and we roll, baby, roll to 93 wins.

Glass half empty guy: Our manager is so ordinary and our pitching so iffy and the teams in our division so fired up when they play us it never works and we finish 4 below .500.

ok you made your 2019 quota of one rational post with about 72 hours to spare, congrats and we're on to 2020.

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I can see the Sox finishing with the 3rd-6th best record in AL after NYY, Astros. Twins, Oakland and Tampa Bay will duke it out with us. Key variables for me are effectiveness of Colome/closer and Lopez/Cease progress. I have no doubt we will score runs and am counting on TAs defence to improve.

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Also, I know this year has become a "Contend Now" season and I dont mean to drift away from the original topic. But IF almost everything goes according to plan. The 2021 White Sox season COULD get insane!

1. Kopech

2.Giolito

3.Keuchel

4.Cease

5.Dunning/Lambert

 

CF Robert

3B Moncada

RF Betts*

LF Jimenez/Adolfo

C Grandal/Collins

DH Abreu

SS Anderson

1B Vaughn

2B Madrigal/Garcia

 

SCHWWWWING!

 

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3 hours ago, Timmy U said:

I think the Sox have a huge cone of uncertainty.  Right now, I would say around 85 wins.  If everything goes right, I could see them winning as many as 95, but if everything goes wrong, I could see them winning as few as 75, especially considering how deep the league is.  However it turns out, it should be exciting.

This is basically what I think so split the difference and get 81 to 85 wins as we now stand.

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So this is for the experts in WAR. I don’t have any experience in it. Everyone talks about how hard it will be to catch up to the Twins. Can someone tell me if all the moves they made last year actually showed a 23 game improvement. I see predictions of us getting 9 more wins with a net of 5(according to some). We have basically changed half our roster but the improvements are barely double digit. Did the Twins actually make enough moves to improve by 23 games last year? I just find it hard to believe. Most swear by WAR and how we will hardly improve  past .500 yet they improved by 23 games. Just wanted confirmation that it really can happen. Making moves that can improve a team by 23 games without signing a superstar. Thanks in advance

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1 minute ago, Drwhoo1 said:

So this is for the experts in WAR. I don’t have any experience in it. Everyone talks about how hard it will be to catch up to the Twins. Can someone tell me if all the moves they made last year actually showed a 23 game improvement. I see predictions of us getting 9 more wins with a net of 5(according to some). We have basically changed half our roster but the improvements are barely double digit. Did the Twins actually make enough moves to improve by 23 games last year? I just find it hard to believe. Most swear by WAR and how we will hardly improve  past .500 yet they improved by 23 games. Just wanted confirmation that it really can happen. Making moves that can improve a team by 23 games without signing a superstar. Thanks in advance

let me give you a short answer: by projections of WAR, this is the 1st White Sox team with a good shot of contending for a division title since probably like 2012.  Someone can correct me if I'm wrong.  

Now, a lot can go wrong, but "on paper" this is about an 83-85 win team.  WIth easy upside given Robert and Madrigal and Kopech all coming up as reinforcements early.

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