2020 Projection for Moncada from Brooks Baseball/Roto

[mqr]

3 minutes ago, JoshPR said:

I could give a rodents ass about projections...... Let the games be played

What else is there to kill time with when sitting at work on New Year's Eve.

Predicting is fun

[soxfan49]

8 minutes ago, mqr said:

I wouldn't think it's particularly likely he raises hes BB% back to that level, because I don't think it'd be a good idea. And that be a pretty huge spike in ISO. What you're saying isn't unreasonable, but I don't think I'd bet on it. 

The guy has all the talent in the world and as @Jack Parkman pointed out, he hits the piss out of the ball.

[michelangelosmonkey]

Moncada had a 13% walk rate in the minors and an 11% rate after 800 major league at bats...at 23.  Last year his walk rate was 7%   I would think pitchers will be more cautious this year and we see 70 walks.  BABIP will certainly drop but I should think strikeout rate will likely drop too.  .275/.375/.525?  With 30 steals.  

[SkokieSox]

If his average dips to that extent, I would expect his homers to increase 

[Jack Parkman]

There are 3 types of players that projection systems struggle with:

1. A young player who breaks out in their 2nd or 3rd MLB season or later(Moncada, Giolito and Anderson)

2. Hitters who pulverize baseballs such that they have an abnormally high BABIP and also strike out a bunch (Moncada and Judge) 

3. Pitchers that have a track record of striking out a lot of batters but also putting up an ERA over 4.25. (Robbie Ray and historically, Javier Vazquez) 

Edited December 31, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

19 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Moncada had a 13% walk rate in the minors and an 11% rate after 800 major league at bats...at 23.  Last year his walk rate was 7%   I would think pitchers will be more cautious this year and we see 70 walks.  BABIP will certainly drop but I should think strikeout rate will likely drop too.  .275/.375/.525?  With 30 steals.  

Did you notice the 3rd  (Abreu, Moncada) Sox player on that exit velocity list? Another guy with a high walk rate. None other than Zack Collins.

Edited December 31, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[mqr]

6 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

1. A young player who breaks out in their 2nd or 3rd MLB season or later(Moncada, Giolito and Anderson)

I think it's less that they struggle with them than it is they should be met with at least some level of skepticism. 

[Jerksticks]

1 hour ago, SonofaRoache said:

I'm not worried about projection and regression with Yo, I am concerned about his health. IF he stays healthy, he will be between a 4 and 6 fWAR player most years. 

I was thinking 7-12 fWAR.  30 steals and he’s trout 

[Kyyle23]

Guys I searched the word "pulverize" on the google machine and it brought me here that's a little weird right 

[thxfrthmmrs]

For his projected BA, I think the best metrics to use his xBA from last season, which already factors in his EV, launch angle, and sprint speed for certain batted balls.

While his xBA last year was .291, I expect his K% to continue to come down and BB% to come up, some of the said effect could be negated by de-juicing of the ball. All being said l think a .290/.360/.550 season is not unreasonable, meaning the projections in the OP, which most likely factors in a multi-year average rather than players making sustainable improvements, is too bearish on him.

[michelangelosmonkey]

48 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Did you notice the 3rd  (Abreu, Moncada) Sox player on that exit velocity list? Another guy with a high walk rate. None other than Zack Collins.

Oh no you don't...I'm not getting beaten up by the Collins-is-a-turd crowd in another thread. But thanks...I hadnt noticed.   An elite eye combined with plus power is why I was bullish on Moncada in his darkest hours a year ago and why I think we should be more excited about Collins.

[Jack Parkman]

10 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Oh no you don't...I'm not getting beaten up by the Collins-is-a-turd crowd in another thread. But thanks...I hadnt noticed.   An elite eye combined with plus power is why I was bullish on Moncada in his darkest hours a year ago and why I think we should be more excited about Collins.

I'm bearish on Collins' hit tool but I still think he should have received a look. I would've preferred Puig over EE for the positional versatility and as a platoon partner for Collins and Mazara. 

EE was someone I thought they should look to acquire at the TDL if the Sox were in contention and Collins sucked. 

Edited December 31, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[JoshPR]

3 hours ago, mqr said:

What else is there to kill time with when sitting at work on New Year's Eve.

Predicting is fun

Yeah. You're right for fun. I think too many people here put too much stock in these and get all fried up about it. That's what I meant. 

[Boopa1219]

I think Moncada will take more walks this year compared to last as he’s established that he can hit and he’s more used to this aggressive approach. 

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, Joshua Strong said:

I think Moncada will take more walks this year compared to last as he’s established that he can hit and he’s more used to this aggressive approach. 

Moncada has an elite eye and once he starts getting the respect from pitchers and umpires, his BB% is going to skyrocket. It wouldn't shock me if he starts putting up .400 OBPs in 2021 and later.  I'm expecting .370+ this year from him. 

[poppysox]

7 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Moncada had a 13% walk rate in the minors and an 11% rate after 800 major league at bats...at 23.  Last year his walk rate was 7%   I would think pitchers will be more cautious this year and we see 70 walks.  BABIP will certainly drop but I should think strikeout rate will likely drop too.  .275/.375/.525?  With 30 steals.  

It's hard to pitch cautiously to Moncada or anyone in our lineup.  We have danger lurking up and down the lineup.  We are going to see some football scores this year.

[Eminor3rd]

His BABIP will go down, but as long as his hard hit rates remain elite and his speed doesn’t go away, he should still be able to maintain a BABIP significantly higher than normal. If he is hitting reasonably well, I don’t see any reason that .350 or so isn’t a reasonable expectation. 

[Dominikk85]

9 hours ago, reiks12 said:

those projections really surprise me. I know his BABIP was insane but i figured it was mostly due to him murdering the baseball. I dont see why it should drop to the .330 level. 

.338 is actually a really high babip. Only 21 out of 127 players with at least 2000 career PAs have a higher career babip and only one is above 350 (yelich). 

Things that help babip are generally low pop ups, high EV, low pull rate and low launch angle and moncada checks some of those marks but still above 350 is extremely hard to maintain. I could see him being a consistent 340 guy though.

The question is if he wants that though because those babip indicators also supress power some. If moncada wants to tap into more power he might want to increase his launch angle and pull rate some which helps power but hurts babip.

So moncada can basically decide if he wants to be a high 20s homer guy with a .345 babip or a 40 hr guy with a .310 babip. Both plays, 285 with 28 homers is nice but so is .260 with 40 homers.

[oldsox]

Moncada is a freaking stud.  He'll hit a bunch.   Not even close to his peak.

[chitownsportsfan]

8 hours ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

For his projected BA, I think the best metrics to use his xBA from last season, which already factors in his EV, launch angle, and sprint speed for certain batted balls.

While his xBA last year was .291, I expect his K% to continue to come down and BB% to come up, some of the said effect could be negated by de-juicing of the ball. All being said l think a .290/.360/.550 season is not unreasonable, meaning the projections in the OP, which most likely factors in a multi-year average rather than players making sustainable improvements, is too bearish on him.

Not sure there is a player in the game that has Moncada's power and speed combo, which leads to an absurd xBABIP around 365.  I'd expect the BABIP to regress down to around 360, but the walk rate and HR rate will go up and the result will once again be a wRC+ around 125-135 with good defense at 3B.  About 5-6 WAR.

If he puts it all together in his prime, (2021-25) look out.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

5 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

.338 is actually a really high babip. Only 21 out of 127 players with at least 2000 career PAs have a higher career babip and only one is above 350 (yelich). 

Things that help babip are generally low pop ups, high EV, low pull rate and low launch angle and moncada checks some of those marks but still above 350 is extremely hard to maintain. I could see him being a consistent 340 guy though.

The question is if he wants that though because those babip indicators also supress power some. If moncada wants to tap into more power he might want to increase his launch angle and pull rate some which helps power but hurts babip.

So moncada can basically decide if he wants to be a high 20s homer guy with a .345 babip or a 40 hr guy with a .310 babip. Both plays, 285 with 28 homers is nice but so is .260 with 40 homers.

I never do understand why HR's aren't counted in BABIP. Do they just omit HR's from the whole stat ? Seems to me HR's are balls in play since they are fair balls and count as a hit. If a ball is hit above a HR line but a fielder robs the HR it counts against BABIP right ? I guess in play technically means in the field of play where a fielder can make a play on a ball. At least make a separate stat that includes HR's like BAoFB ( batting average on fair balls).

[Dominikk85]

This stat exists already and is called BA on contact. Babip is not supposed to measure batter quality but the effect of fielding skill and luck thus homers are excluded. Of course with some homers luck and fielding skill plays a role, but babip just assumes this is not true to make it easier

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

This stat exists already and is called BA on contact. Babip is not supposed to measure batter quality but the effect of fielding skill and luck thus homers are excluded. Of course with some homers luck and fielding skill plays a role, but babip just assumes this is not true to make it easier

I suppose if it is measuring fielding skill and luck then I don't have too much use for it . Just like with much else in life you make your own luck. Some hitters just have a knack for hitting them where they aint'. Maybe there isn't too many of those type of hitters any more. Perhaps the Gwynn's, Carew's and Brett's are relics of the past and few today can beat the numbers machines that say where to play to take hits away , It's why walks are almost as important as hits now. It's why the 3 outcome players are the norm now and make baseball boring.

It might also be why everyone loves Madrigal so much , such a unique player . People see a throw back to simpler times perhaps. Make contact, put the ball in play ,hustle ,field your position well. An actual living fossil and reminiscent of an era of the Go Go Sox of Fox ,Aparicio, and Rivera.

[poppysox]

17 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I suppose if it is measuring fielding skill and luck then I don't have too much use for it . Just like with much else in life you make your own luck. Some hitters just have a knack for hitting them where they aint'. Maybe there isn't too many of those type of hitters any more. Perhaps the Gwynn's, Carew's and Brett's are relics of the past and few today can beat the numbers machines that say where to play to take hits away , It's why walks are almost as important as hits now. It's why the 3 outcome players are the norm now and make baseball boring.

It might also be why everyone loves Madrigal so much , such a unique player . People see a throw back to simpler times perhaps. Make contact, put the ball in play ,hustle ,field your position well. An actual living fossil and reminiscent of an era of the Go Go Sox of Fox ,Aparicio, and Rivera.

Madrigal has skills that play every day.  He can take a pitch or two so a baserunner has a chance to steal or steal a base himself...he can bunt...hit behind the runner...catch the ball...throw to the right base, etc.  In short...he's a baseball player who does everything well except hit home runs.  The 40 homer guy hits a HR once every 4 games.  I'm not sure that Nellie Fox type player can win the MVP today as he did in1959 but for sure...a Fox type player will help you win baseball games today.

[oneofthemikes]

2 hours ago, poppysox said:

Madrigal has skills that play every day.  He can take a pitch or two so a baserunner has a chance to steal or steal a base himself...he can bunt...hit behind the runner...catch the ball...throw to the right base, etc.  In short...he's a baseball player who does everything well except hit home runs.  The 40 homer guy hits a HR once every 4 games.  I'm not sure that Nellie Fox type player can win the MVP today as he did in1959 but for sure...a Fox type player will help you win baseball games today.

This is basically where I'm at with Madrigal. I know that HRs are sexy and have become the only thing anyone wants to see but Nick is absolutely the type of player that this team needs right now. We have several elite, explosive talents at other positions around the diamond. We could use a guy like him.