Chisoxmb35 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 On 12/31/2019 at 9:08 AM, mqr said: As far as projections go, I think they're right in line. I definitely don't expect him to hit 300 again, but I would think he does better than a .330 BABIP. Yeah, um no? What makes you think that besides ingrown Whire Sox inferiority complex? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mqr Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 42 minutes ago, Chisoxmb35 said: Yeah, um no? What makes you think that besides ingrown Whire Sox inferiority complex? It took him a .400 BABIP to do it. I’m really not going out on limb saying that’s not happening again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dominikk85 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 9 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: I suppose if it is measuring fielding skill and luck then I don't have too much use for it . Just like with much else in life you make your own luck. Some hitters just have a knack for hitting them where they aint'. Maybe there isn't too many of those type of hitters any more. Perhaps the Gwynn's, Carew's and Brett's are relics of the past and few today can beat the numbers machines that say where to play to take hits away , It's why walks are almost as important as hits now. It's why the 3 outcome players are the norm now and make baseball boring. It might also be why everyone loves Madrigal so much , such a unique player . People see a throw back to simpler times perhaps. Make contact, put the ball in play ,hustle ,field your position well. An actual living fossil and reminiscent of an era of the Go Go Sox of Fox ,Aparicio, and Rivera. That is somewhat true but still almost all full time mlb players are between 260 and 340. Within that range skill is involved but if it is like 220 or 380 it is mostly likely going to regress into that 260 to 340 range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxmb35 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 On 1/1/2020 at 12:57 PM, mqr said: It took him a .400 BABIP to do it. I’m really not going out on limb saying that’s not happening again No, my question was what makes you think he will regress that badly..If he regressed that badly, he's a failed prospect and we are major losers of the Sale trade. Luckily, he won't.. and this thread will end up forgotten. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mqr Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, Chisoxmb35 said: No, my question was what makes you think he will regress that badly..If he regressed that badly, he's a failed prospect and we are major losers of the Sale trade. Luckily, he won't.. and this thread will end up forgotten. Not really sure how thinking a guy is going to settle in around .280, .290 BA is expecting regression to the point of being a failed prospect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 (edited) The thing people always ignore with BABIP regression is progression in other areas of the game; MQR is right in his thoughts on Moncada, and even if his BABIP goes back to sane levels of 350-380 that he likely warrants with his combination of speed/ex velo/LD%, he's still an incredible talent. That said, Moncada could add 2% to his walk rate back to 9% (where he was before), and that's 11 more times on base. If his BABIP regresses 30 points (3%), he loses 12 base hits from last year (with 406 balls put in play). That means, essentially his 2% increase in walk-rate would cancel out any BABIP regression from an OB standpoint. If he takes his ISO from 233 to 237, cuts down on his strike outs by an additional 2%, and now he actually is on base more and has more total bases than last year... simply by adding 2% to his walk rate, decreasing his k-rate by 2%, and increasing his ISO very slightly. He would actually be a BETTER player under the scenario above; ever so slightly. This is what people overlook so often. Anderson could have his BABIP come down to a 350-360 range, cut down on his strike outs again (from 21% to say 19%) while increasing his defense to 2018 levels, and his WAR would actually be higher than last year - his batting average would be lower, but he would actually be a better player. When guys start showing development, it's hard to gauge when they will stop showing significant improvement. Everyone who guarantees regression due to one or two stats (like BABIP) overlook a players overall progress and growth that is the true driving force behind their improvement. Edited January 2, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxmb35 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 45 minutes ago, mqr said: Not really sure how thinking a guy is going to settle in around .280, .290 BA is expecting regression to the point of being a failed prospect. I'm sorry but a 50+ point BA drop and huge drops in OBP AND SLG in a year in which he should be getting better, would be a huge blow to us and him as a prospect. I don't think you're grasping how big of a regression that would be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Chisoxmb35 said: I'm sorry but a 50+ point BA drop and huge drops in OBP AND SLG in a year in which he should be getting better, would be a huge blow to us and him as a prospect. I don't think you're grasping how big of a regression that would be. I literally just laid out that his batting average could go down 40 points and his overall production up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mqr Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Chisoxmb35 said: I'm sorry but a 50+ point BA drop and huge drops in OBP AND SLG in a year in which he should be getting better, would be a huge blow to us and him as a prospect. I don't think you're grasping how big of a regression that would be. It's also not what I said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxmb35 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, mqr said: It's also not what I said. You said that their projections (the numbers I quoted) were right in line with what to expect. If we are moving the goal posts now, that's fine. But I'm not sure what you mean otherwise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxmb35 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 12 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: I literally just laid out that his batting average could go down 40 points and his overall production up. My post wasn't to you sir. But fine, I'll bite. What about the massive drops in OBP and SLG they project? I'm just not buying the pessimism here. I get it, that's kind of how most Sox fans are...I just choose to view the glass as half full personally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mqr Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Chisoxmb35 said: You said that their projections (the numbers I quoted) were right in line with what to expect. If we are moving the goal posts now, that's fine. But I'm not sure what you mean otherwise. I said the projections make sense but I expect him to do better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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