Long-Term Viewership Trends for Sports

[caulfield12]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/briangoff/2019/12/16/long-term-viewership-trends-show-warnings-for-nfl-nba-and-other-major-sports/#1fe4cbd0584f

 

Thought this was an interesting article...a lot of stories coming out in the last few days (after Astros/Cora-Gate) have been speaking about the threat to the sport, about baseball increasingly becoming a regional and not national one (in this area, the NFL and NBA have the advantage), about how the NFL and college football product (NCAA basketball is terribly watered down this year) dominate the landscape.  

Some of it's clearly about marketing, the pace of the game, the average age of 57 for a fan that ranks baseball as his favorite sport, etc.

Of course, on the other hand, baseball still ranks ahead of the NBA in terms of revenue and is about even in terms of franchise values.  That's still a monumental change from the 1970's and 80's, before the age of Bird/Magic/Jordan.

The NBA has the China market and much of the globe....MLB dominates in Latin America/Mexico and the Pacific Rim (Japan/S.Korea/Taiwan).   India is a world all of its own.

 

In terms of football, parents are increasingly becoming concerned about football injuries, which we've been talking for at least the last 5-10 years about CTE and concussions...so it's hard to imagine the NFL ever getting MORE popular from here on out, especially with the end of the Brady/Belichick Era.   What happens in the NBA once LeBron retires and the Golden State Warriors dynasty is dissolved?  Well, it's already resulting in NBA viewership being down (along with Zion Williamson being out.)

The article also talks about NASCAR's ebbs and flows, you can certainly say the same for golf for much of the last decade with Tiger Woods out of contention for the majority of that time.

Baseball, despite national/local media talking about its demise, is still thriving...all things considered.  It just won't be the 1950's and 60's version where kids all skipped school to watch games during the daytime, listened to the radio wherever they were or found the nearest black & white television in a department store window to watch.

It's also pretty clear the Cubs and White Sox were at least five years too late to really take advantage of the most profitable broadcast rights deals...although sports will always be viable when compared to the rising production costs and billions invested by Netflix, Apple, Disney, Hulu, HBO, CBS All Access and Peacock for movies and series development.

 

Lots of different ways to take the conversation.

Just thought it was an interesting topic, and it certainly will be back in the news with Marquee Network having to announce their fee structure in February and comparing Cubs/White Sox ratings and broadcast production values.

 

 

 

Edited January 16, 2020 by caulfield12

[BackDoorBreach]

This is incredibly anecdotal but at least on my Facebook with my friends it's easily NFL, MLB, NCAA then a mixture of Hawks/Bulls depending if their good or not.  I'm in my very early 30's.  I don't think there is necessarily some down swing in MLB viewership in my age group.  There are just a shit ton of Boomers.

[caulfield12]

Well, as a recently-minted 50 year old, I'll firmly count myself in Generation X box...the first generation that was much more NFL-oriented than baseball.

For me, it's MLB, NCAA BB, NCAA FB, NFL...then a big gap down to golf (mostly the five majors) and tennis.

 

Fwiw, I really love following baseball through MLB At-Bat, especially the home and away radio (because the video streams aren't always reliable here in China) announcers and this year for sure I'll pay attention to the White Sox on a daily basis again through getting the team package (thankfully, few blackouts).  In Iowa, that was a nightmare.  The only games were basically every other Saturday/Sunday via free t.v. through the third local ABC channel.  Ironically, my friends with DISH and Directv couldn't watch most of those same games despite paying for the MLB packages.

Edited January 16, 2020 by caulfield12

[ron883]

Esports are on the rise and they aren't slowing down. Watching live streaming of videogames is big with the younger generation. It's free to watch and you can interact with the gamers through the chat. I think it will cut into the viewership of all major sports

[caulfield12]

17 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Esports are on the rise and they aren't slowing down. Watching live streaming of videogames is big with the younger generation. It's free to watch and you can interact with the gamers through the chat. I think it will cut into the viewership of all major sports

Wasn't it something like Netflix that had 119 new programs in the last year?  That's nuts.   And 32 Golden Globes nominations for their films.

 

1) Esports/Computer games

2) XGames/extreme sports

3) Ubiquitous nature of Social media (which obviously has to be more incorporated into the sports world)

4) Middle class is working increasingly longer hours, or two jobs (single parents)...generally economic decline leading to decreased family viewing and attendance versus corporate/elites/comps for clients/suite rentals

5) Cord-cutting, pay t.v. is too expensive

6) More engagement in politics than at any time in recent memory

7) Lots of Americans prefer hunting/fishing/camping/hiking

8  High cost of sports attendance/concessions/souvenirs leading to less loyalty (see Greg775)

9) Increased interest in futbol/soccer around the world

10) Lack of nationally-identifiable stars to promote the sport (see Commissioner's lectures on Trout's ambivalence)

11) Fewer nuclear families, so there's less of a bond between fathers and sons around watching the sport or playing catch in the backyard

12) Times and pace of games

13) Cost of participating in summer/touring teams...many are being priced out, just simple access to fields, equipment, etc.

14) Quality of baseball instruction at lower/youth levels declining..."win at all costs" parents who live out their lives vicariously through their kids and fight either the refs/umps or other parents

15) Increased disconnect between billionaire owners, millionaire players and consumers...more found at college and low minor league level

16) Professional sports increasing politicized/political correctness movement/attacks on mascots or even Title IX/gender equity backlash

 

 

 

Edited January 16, 2020 by caulfield12

[ron883]

17 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Wasn't it something like Netflix that had 119 new programs in the last year?  That's nuts.   And 32 Golden Globes nominations for their films.

 

1) Esports/Computer games

2) XGames/extreme sports

3) Ubiquitous nature of Social media (which obviously has to be more incorporated into the sports world)

4) Middle class is working increasingly longer hours, or two jobs (single parents)...generally economic decline leading to decreased family viewing and attendance versus corporate/elites/comps for clients/suite rentals

5) Cord-cutting, pay t.v. is too expensive

6) More engagement in politics than at any time in recent memory

7) Lots of Americans prefer hunting/fishing/camping/hiking

8  High cost of sports attendance/concessions/souvenirs leading to less loyalty (see Greg775)

9) Increased interest in futbol/soccer around the world

10) Lack of nationally-identifiable stars to promote the sport (see Commissioner's lectures on Trout's ambivalence)

11) Fewer nuclear families, so there's less of a bond between fathers and sons around watching the sport or playing catch in the backyard

12) Times and pace of games

13) Cost of participating in summer/touring teams...many are being priced out, just simple access to fields, equipment, etc.

14) Quality of baseball instruction at lower/youth levels declining..."win at all costs" parents who live out their lives vicariously through their kids and fight either the refs/umps or other parents

15) Increased disconnect between billionaire owners, millionaire players and consumers...more found at college and low minor league level

16) Professional sports increasing politicized/political correctness movement/attacks on mascots or even Title IX/gender equity backlash

 

 

 

[Richie]

Per #4 - I believe it's been quite a while since the economy has been declining.  

Anyway, I don't understand why people are making such a big deal out of the sign stealing stuff and acting like it's going to hurt anything. It's nothing new. There's been sign stealing scandals going back every decade for... like ever. Hell, the White Sox had a publicized sign steal scandal in the 80's using guys in the CF scoreboard with binoculars. Lighting up a lightbulb when a fastball was coming, etc...

This is nothing new and it will be a distant memory in a year or two. Hell, the steroid stuff was 10x bigger than this. So was the animosity among the fans after the player's strike. 

Teams at every level steal signs and it's LEGAL. It's not legal to use technology. Technology advances, teams try to utilize it to steal signs, they get busted and we move on. The system! It's almost like it's working! It caught them! And they'll probably catch the next guys too. 

NFL has had their political stuff, the concussion crisis and the scandals with the Patriots. Their ratings are back as high as ever. NBA has had officials fixing games for cash. 

Some guys were banging on garbage cans, stealing signs. This is nothing, people. Nothing. Wrong? Yes... but this isn't some Earth shattering ordeal. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 16, 2020 by Richie

[Richie]

Part 2...

Why is MLB viewership declining? First off, it's just the casual viewership that has declined a bit. And it's easy... You want casual viewership like the NFL and NBA? Do things that will ruin the game for the rest of us. Cut the season in half and make it the length of NBA/NHL. 82 games. This chops the rotation in half, gets rid of the fat and ensures quality on the mound every night. Your bullpen is ready and your positional guys never need rest. Then, you make the game 7 innings long. So, it's a 2 hour length. No mid-inning pitching changes either barring injury. You start it, you finish it. 

I f'ing guarantee that the above would increase viewership and interest in baseball. I'd bet my house AND my car on it. But none of us want that, do we? I sure as hell don't. I rather chop my d**k off than watch that brand of Major League Baseball. We on the same page? Nice. 

It's not rocket science. The game is slow, people. It's honestly f'ing boring if I just look at it from a neutral perspective. I love it. This game is my first love... but when you have smart phones, social media, video games that are more fun to people than real life, unlimited internet porn at the click of a mouse. Come on... you people really can't understand why the game of baseball is not generating the interest that it used to? 162 games, played nearly every day, your star pitcher only plays 1/5th of the games.... Hell, your star hitters only succeed 30% of the time at the plate. Think about that vs football/basketball and the rate that star QB's fire completions and star shooters make baskets. 

Your blinded by your love for this game if you can't see why it's losing favor to NFL, NCAAF and NBA. It's obvious. Not only that, it isn't fixable. Not unless you destroy the game as we know it. 

 

Edited January 16, 2020 by Richie

[Richie]

48 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Esports are on the rise and they aren't slowing down. Watching live streaming of videogames is big with the younger generation.

Not really. I'm in my mid 20's and I don't know anyone who watches that stuff. It's more of a niche thing. It doesn't compete with professional sports, in the least. 

[caulfield12]

37 minutes ago, Richie said:

Part 2...

Why is MLB viewership declining? First off, it's just the casual viewership that has declined a bit. And it's easy... You want casual viewership like the NFL and NBA? Do things that will ruin the game for the rest of us. Cut the season in half and make it the length of NBA/NHL. 82 games. This chops the rotation in half, gets rid of the fat and ensures quality on the mound every night. Your bullpen is ready and your positional guys never need rest. Then, you make the game 7 innings long. So, it's a 2 hour length. No mid-inning pitching changes either barring injury. You start it, you finish it. 

I f'ing guarantee that the above would increase viewership and interest in baseball. I'd bet my house AND my car on it. But none of us want that, do we? I sure as hell don't. I rather chop my d**k off than watch that brand of Major League Baseball. We on the same page? Nice. 

It's not rocket science. The game is slow, people. It's honestly f'ing boring if I just look at it from a neutral perspective. I love it. This game is my first love... but when you have smart phones, social media, video games that are more fun to people than real life, unlimited internet porn at the click of a mouse. Come on... you people really can't understand why the game of baseball is not generating the interest that it used to? 162 games, played nearly every day, your star pitcher only plays 1/5th of the games.... Hell, your star hitters only succeed 30% of the time at the plate. Think about that vs football/basketball and the rate that star QB's fire completions and star shooters make baskets. 

Your blinded by your love for this game if you can't see why it's losing favor to NFL, NCAAF and NBA. It's obvious. Not only that, it isn't fixable. Not unless you destroy the game as we know it. 

 

The NBA added billions in revenue and viewership due to Yao Ming/China.

Unfortunately, Latin America is not extremely wealthy.  Mexico's the closest you get to a potential new market, along with Montreal.   Japan/S.Korea/Taiwan, each are too far away to make bi-weekly travel unfeasible, although it's possible to imagine a future where their championship teams take part in the end of a season against the MLB teams but in a "real stakes" format as compared to the WBC.  That would require a significant increase in talent in the Pacific Rim.  That's pretty unlikely to happen.

So the question is obviously if there is an area for growth.   NFL has England, they tried the World League and football is also somewhat popular in Australia/New Zealand, but the NFL's pinned in as well in terms of future markets/expansion.

Countries like India, Indonesia, Brazil and South Africa are some of the real wild cards here in terms of the future of the game.   Baseball is close enough to cricket, but that's still a unique/distinctive quasi-religion there that will never catch on in the States.

 

Salary/Endorsement Earnings for ten highest paid in every sport:  

NBA: $600M Soccer: $555M NFL: $376M MLB: $315M NHL: $159M

 

Avg. Team Values per @Forbes
NFL: $2.6 billion
NBA: $1.9 billion
MLB: $1.7 billion
NHL: $630 million

 

On the other hand, MLB overall revenue is significantly higher than the NBA...with the NFL far and away #1, MLB #2, the English Premier League #3 and NBA close behind at #4.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2018/01/12/has-mlb-been-passed-by-the-nba-in-popularity-the-problems-with-the-gallup-poll/#5533426e2cd3

Fans of basketball and soccer rejoice! Baseball fans panic! Analysts say, "Wait a second..."

Here’s the deal: while historically you can say that the categories hold true, what has greatly changed is exposure to the types of products within each. It’s here that “baseball” bumps up into a disadvantage the other sports don’t.

When you read “baseball” you think of MLB. When you read “basketball”, “football”, and "soccer" you think of NBA, the NFL, NCAA Basketball, NCAA Football, MLS, Premier League, and a host of other soccer leagues now visible on television. When it comes to baseball, nothing other than Major League Baseball gets the coverage close to its counterparts in the Gallup poll, sans the College World Series. Ask how often you see collegiate baseball outside that. Or for that matter, Minor League Baseball;.

There’s also timing. The Gallup poll was conducted December 4-11 of 2017. That is at the height of MLB’s off-season and at the height of football season with the NBA season underway.

So, depending on your preferences, if you’re a fan of basketball or soccer, you may see the Gallup numbers as reaffirming your ideology. At the same time, if you’re a baseball fan, you might wonder what other data shows.

ESPN polling (of which the latest has not yet been run), presents a more granular view. In fairness to soccer fans, the poll only shows MLS, and no other soccer leagues. Within that data, MLB is seen as the second-most popular behind the NFL, followed by collegiate football, and then the NBA.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 16, 2020 by caulfield12

[Colinski]

For context, I’m an English White Sox fan based just north of London. I hadn’t even been to America when I feel in love with the sport.

 

NFL doesn’t have England to itself. Simply MLB got here late. Europe is for the taking. Every veiwer lost to Esports or the internet or whatever is easily replaceable over here. English fans in particular are used to slower sports (test cricket lasts five days). Baseball is far more interesting than cricket and that’s coming from someone who grew up playing it daily.

[Moan4Yoan]

1 hour ago, Colinski said:

For context, I’m an English White Sox fan based just north of London. I hadn’t even been to America when I feel in love with the sport.

 

NFL doesn’t have England to itself. Simply MLB got here late. Europe is for the taking. Every veiwer lost to Esports or the internet or whatever is easily replaceable over here. English fans in particular are used to slower sports (test cricket lasts five days). Baseball is far more interesting than cricket and that’s coming from someone who grew up playing it daily.

How did you get into baseball initially and why the White Sox?

[Colinski]

1 hour ago, Moan4Yoan said:

How did you get into baseball initially and why the White Sox?

Channel four used to put one game on a week at like 1am here. I was about 11 years old and one night stayed up during summer holidays to watch it (not even sure why).

 

The game I saw was was White Sox vs Tigers (I think). Chris Singleton robbed a home run, becoming instantly my favourite player and the Sox won. I then paid attention throughout my teens, happening to work a night job in 05’. The whole World Series that year was shown and I managed to dodge work enough to see most of the key moments. 

It’s pure luck I’m a Sox fan, seeing as back then normally it was Braves (presenter supported them and their pitching), Red Sox and Yankees on this game of the week. Who knows who i’d support if it wasn’t for timing and Chris Singleton. 

Its easier now being a fan here in some ways, as my MLB.TV subscription obviously has no black outs. I now watch  nearly every game, the following morning without checking the scores so it’s as if it’s live to me. 

 

 

Edited January 16, 2020 by Colinski

[black jack]

5 hours ago, Richie said:

Not really. I'm in my mid 20's and I don't know anyone who watches that stuff. It's more of a niche thing. It doesn't compete with professional sports, in the least. 

It's all my kid watches.  He's ten. 

[reiks12]

9 hours ago, ron883 said:

It's free to watch and you can interact with the gamers through the chat. 

I wish you could do this through mlb.tv, it would have to be heavily moderated though.

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

I wish you could do this through mlb.tv, it would have to be heavily moderated though.

A lot of those illegal free sports streaming sites have that an attached chat function but it’s a complete free for all and almost distracting when it’s people rooting blindly for their favorite college teams.

Sportsurge.net, for example.  I was able to watch most of the NCAA title game this week at work through that one, although there was a significant lag.

[ron883]

11 hours ago, Richie said:

Not really. I'm in my mid 20's and I don't know anyone who watches that stuff. It's more of a niche thing. It doesn't compete with professional sports, in the least. 

 

5 hours ago, black jack said:

It's all my kid watches.  He's ten. 

^ live streaming videogames is bigger than you think, and it is still a relatively young "industry". It has only been around for 10-15 years. People are becoming millionaires from streaming videogames. Big names like Michael Jordan, Drake, Jerry Jones and many others are investing in esports teams. This is an industry that will blow up in the future. 

Edited January 16, 2020 by ron883

[caulfield12]

12 minutes ago, ron883 said:

 

^ live streaming videogames is bigger than you think, and it is still a relatively young "industry". It has only been around for 10-15 years. People are becoming millionaires from streaming videogames. Big names like Michael Jordan, Drake, Jerry Jones and many others are investing in esports teams. This is an industry that will blow up in the future. 

That’s all you hear about in Asia.  Especially the Korean teams, Faker and Ambition...the Chinese have a top player now too, although roughly 75% of the top teams are still based out of S.Korea.

[Eminor3rd]

16 minutes ago, ron883 said:

 

^ live streaming videogames is bigger than you think, and it is still a relatively young "industry". It has only been around for 10-15 years. People are becoming millionaires from streaming videogames. Big names like Michael Jordan, Drake, Jerry Jones and many others are investing in esports teams. This is an industry that will blow up in the future. 

This is a fact.

You don’t hear about it because it doesn’t need to be broadcast via the traditional mass media channels you see your sports on. It’s all happening online, but it’s there. Some of these leagues are selling out arenas. Blizzard is starting to build its own arenas instead of renting existing ones. The corporate ad revenue is growing very fast. 

[black jack]

I once asked him how he can sit there and watch someone else play a video game and he responded how I could sit there and watch someone else golf or play baseball.

 

Little brat had me there. 
 

lol 

[mqr]

23 minutes ago, black jack said:

I once asked him how he can sit there and watch someone else play a video game and he responded how I could sit there and watch someone else golf or play baseball.

 

Little brat had me there. 
 

lol 

I occasionally will watch some, and it's for the exact same reason I watch baseball. I enjoy watching people compete in something I myself enjoy at a level that I will never hope to reach. 

The house I lived in in college got really into Rocket League, and eventually heard about huge tournaments that were being streamed/televised and said screw it and sat and watched it and drank like any other sports game and it was entertaining as all shit. 

Edited January 16, 2020 by mqr

[chitownsportsfan]

14 hours ago, BackDoorBreach said:

This is incredibly anecdotal but at least on my Facebook with my friends it's easily NFL, MLB, NCAA then a mixture of Hawks/Bulls depending if their good or not.  I'm in my very early 30's.  I don't think there is necessarily some down swing in MLB viewership in my age group.  There are just a shit ton of Boomers.

I'm surrounded by people 28-40 in my current social group (mostly bachelors around that age) so maybe it's a bit of a selection bias but I'd say most of them are baseball fans.  Casual sure, like go to a couple mariners games a year, maybe a few more if the team is good or it's a corporate thing.   Every major NA sports league makes most their bank off the casual fans.  Sure hardcore MLB fans are in decline but with so many leisure options now that's not surprising.  

[chitownsportsfan]

7 minutes ago, mqr said:

I occasionally will watch some, and it's for the exact same reason I watch baseball. I enjoy watching people compete in something I myself enjoy at a level that I will never hope to reach. 

The house I lived in in college got really into Rocket League, and eventually heard about huge tournaments that were being streamed/televised and said screw it and sat and watched it and drank like any other sports game and it was entertaining as all shit. 

lol ur a bit younger than myself but I got into RL about 5 years ago at 30 and I had to stop playing after I burned through 3 PS4 controllers and still wasn't out of bronze.  That game is not for the spatially challenged.  Helluva game tho incredibly fun.

[BackDoorBreach]

So the video game stuff/eSports is kind of funny to me. I'll give a quick online video game history lesson.

I played competitively for $ at the very start of competitive console gaming on a website that used to be called SocomBattles.com around 2003/2004 when I was 14 or 15.  The website was for the Playstation 2 game SOCOM 2 and had a very competitive ladder.  Socombattles.com turned into Gamebattles.com which I played a ton of competitive games such as Socom 3, Socom 3: Combined Assault, then eventually the original CoD 4: Modern Warfare, RBSV 2, CoD Black OPS, CoD MW 2 et cetera.  CoD4 onwards turned into Major League Gaming on the website and in turn exploded to what is now eSports. Around the same Counter Strike was the competitive game on PC IIRC.  Fun times.

[mqr]

12 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

lol ur a bit younger than myself but I got into RL about 5 years ago at 30 and I had to stop playing after I burned through 3 PS4 controllers and still wasn't out of bronze.  That game is not for the spatially challenged.  Helluva game tho incredibly fun.

Agreed, it's awesome and there's such an insanely high skill ceiling on it that the stuff people can do is mind blowing. But, if you haven't picked it up yourself and have no interest in picking it up yourself, I totally get the what's the big deal reaction.