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caulfield12

COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

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Anyone has any questions...I’m stuck about five kilometers from the epicenter.

Public transportation out of city shut down, and food quickly flying off the shelves of grocery stores.  Can’t go out in public without a mask.

Chinese air force will bombard city with bleach tonight between 5-9 p.m.   Chinese New Year travel plans all cancelled...heck, the WHO is probably going to declare an emergency today, which means most countries will lock down flights in and out of China.

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11 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Anyone has any questions...I’m stuck about five kilometers from the epicenter.

Public transportation out of city shut down, and food quickly flying off the shelves of grocery stores.  Can’t go out in public without a mask.

Chinese air force will bombard city with bleach tonight between 5-9 p.m.   Chinese New Year travel plans all cancelled...heck, the WHO is probably going to declare an emergency today, which means most countries will lock down flights in and out of China.

Good luck and stay safe.

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The WHO has been debating for two days about declaring it a public health emergency...but seems they’re still deadlocked at 50/50.

Part of the reason is they still don’t know exactly what happened at Ground Zero, the live animal and seafood market. It has been passed from bats to another type of animal, yesterday the theory was snakes, but they’re still not even certain about that...and that whole area of original outbreak has been completely disinfected.   The other problem is this actually started December 12th and not New Year’s Eve, so it’s almost six weeks out and the incubation period when you can still be a carrier/transmitter could be as long as two weeks.  So it’s no surprise, for those who still remember the movie Contagion from 2011.   That movie had its plot centered around a spread from Macao casinos, Kowloon and HK, some of the densest population areas in the world.

The mayor is under fire big time for allowing a massive local Spring Festival dinner party with 40,000+ guests and over 12,000 “shared” dishes to go forward.   When all is said and done, waiting a couple of weeks too long and not considering the impact of three billion holiday trips by train/bus/plane/private car/Uber-Didi will be one of the most important contributing factors.

I wouldn’t be shocked if the Chinese government tried to push back on declaring it an emergency to save face during the holidays...at least for a week.  They’re still recovering from Hong Kong and the attention on Xinjiang “re-education” camps for Muslims.  This will just make the mood of the public more tense when you try to quarantine roughly 20 million people and counting.

The mortality rate is still low and hitting mostly elderly with pre-existing conditions...but there are rumors of thousands if not tens of thousands in local hospitals...they’re even building an additional “hospital” in just six days to attempt to accommodate overflow.   Imperial College scientists are saying the likely number of infected number 4,000-10000, rather than the 600+ or so the government has published so far.  That means hundreds will eventually die, not just the 18 accounted for as of now.

 

CNN:

WHO defines a public health emergency of international concern as "an extraordinary event" that constitutes a "public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease" and "to potentially require a coordinated international response." Previous emergencies have included Ebola, Zika and H1N1.

While Ghebreyesus praised the Chinese government and its cooperation with WHO on Wednesday, Houssin then expressed that the information they had from Chinese authorities was too limited and imprecise for the committee to make a recommendation that day. The committee remained divided — roughly 50/50 — over the course of the two-day meeting, Houssin said Thursday.

Advisers to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have told CNN they are concerned that Chinese health officials have still not released basic epidemiological data about the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, making it more difficult to contain.

Edited by caulfield12

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I'm about as worried about this as I am worried about SARS.

 

The fact is, the flu is what Americans should be worried about and yet they decide foolishly not to vaccinate for it.

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It is spreading three times faster than SARs, but with roughly 1/3rd the mortality rate (so far.)  

The fact that they’re actually trying to build THREE prefabricated hospitals in the next two weeks and that even China can’t match the demand for medical supplies like masks, goggles and protective gear should tell you everything you need to know...protective capacity is down at least 75% during the holidays, too.

And Kobe Bryant is actually five times more popular in China than he is anywhere in the world.

This will hit everyone extra hard here. 

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On 1/26/2020 at 3:43 PM, caulfield12 said:

It is spreading three times faster than SARs, but with roughly 1/3rd the mortality rate (so far.)  

The fact that they’re actually trying to build THREE prefabricated hospitals in the next two weeks and that even China can’t match the demand for medical supplies like masks, goggles and protective gear should tell you everything you need to know...protective capacity is down at least 75% during the holidays, too.

And Kobe Bryant is actually five times more popular in China than he is anywhere in the world.

This will hit everyone extra hard here. 

5x more popular there than the US even?

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3 hours ago, Eloy Jiménez said:

Caulfield12, I hope you're staying safe.

I would say in the US I would worry far more about influenza than I would about the wuhan coronavirus.

The death count is not the worry, it’s the rapid, almost exponential growth in cases per day.

Mortalities are running at around 2.5%, but it’s spreading at least 3x faster than SARs and SARs after three months was running at a less alarming 4.8% and eventually ended at close to 10%.

The real concern in under reporting and projections of as many as 80-250,000 contracting the virus...the horse is already out of the barn, and with more Chinese connections with Africa via construction, trade and tourism, that continent would be particularly devastated by a potential outbreak.

As for me, haven’t gone outside for going on a week now.

Edited by caulfield12

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4 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

The death count is not the worry, it’s the rapid, almost exponential growth in cases per day.

Mortalities are running at around 2.5%, but it’s spreading at least 3x faster than SARs and SARs after three months was running at a less alarming 4.8% and eventually ended at close to 10%.

The real concern in under reporting and projections of as many as 80-250,000 contracting the virus...the horse is already out of the barn, and with more Chinese connections with Africa via construction, trade and tourism, that continent would be particularly devastated by a potential outbreak.

As for me, haven’t gone outside for going on a week now.

This is probably a stupid assumption, but wouldn’t mass under reporting likely mean that the true mortality rate is much lower (as I presume those who pass away get checked more thoroughly for the actual virus)? 
 

I write this as there is one case in my city and here I am coming down with a fever and chills (thanks to my kiddos who repaid all my kindness for taking care of them and staying up late with them by infecting me haha)

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8 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

This is probably a stupid assumption, but wouldn’t mass under reporting likely mean that the true mortality rate is much lower (as I presume those who pass away get checked more thoroughly for the actual virus)? 
 

I write this as there is one case in my city and here I am coming down with a fever and chills (thanks to my kiddos who repaid all my kindness for taking care of them and staying up late with them by infecting me haha)

Not necessarily.  There were reportedly at least 150-200 critical cases still, and many not released or cleared yet.

That’s not counting the serious cases (another 200-300 or so) and the underreporting or lack of up to date testing from countryside or rural hospitals across the 15 city quarantine zone.  These numbers are just for Hubei Province. 

The best guess, since this is 85% similar to SARs is the mortality rate in the next week will be somewhere in the 4-6% range...so more dangerous than the flu but also much more alarming due to the rapidity of the spread. 
 

It can’t get to Africa without catastrophic consequences.

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On 1/28/2020 at 9:26 AM, soxfan49 said:

No

I don't think anybody really is the authority to take the temperature on who and who is not a bigger fan of Kobe. China does love the NBA though... he was a mega world star.

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46 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

I don't think anybody really is the authority to take the temperature on who and who is not a bigger fan of Kobe. China does love the NBA though... he was a mega world star.

Absolutely. Maybe Kobe is a giant star over there, but 5x more than here? Doubtful

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16 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

This is probably a stupid assumption, but wouldn’t mass under reporting likely mean that the true mortality rate is much lower (as I presume those who pass away get checked more thoroughly for the actual virus)? 
 

I write this as there is one case in my city and here I am coming down with a fever and chills (thanks to my kiddos who repaid all my kindness for taking care of them and staying up late with them by infecting me haha)

Not a stupid assumption. That's generally considered accurate. The cases are more likely to be underreported, leading to a higher overall mortality estimate. 

However, it's early so we don't know a lot yet. 

Edited by Eloy Jiménez

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1 hour ago, soxfan49 said:

Absolutely. Maybe Kobe is a giant star over there, but 5x more than here? Doubtful

I'm going to guess the comment was related to China having roughly 5x the population of the U.S.

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2 hours ago, Eloy Jiménez said:

Not a stupid assumption. That's generally considered accurate. The cases are more likely to be underreported, leading to a higher overall mortality estimate. 

However, it's early so we don't know a lot yet. 

It’s more important to look at cases “cleared” vs. critical vs. serious vs. reported/suspected cases, and then there are already thousands or even tens of thousands under observation.

The biggest risk is that nearby city of 7.5ish million that I’d never even heard of named Hanggang blows up...48 miles to the east.

Undoubtedly, you’ll eventually have huge outbreaks in Chongqing, Chengdu, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Beijing, Shenzhen/Guangzhou.

That leads to a situation where those other megacities don't finish their peak cycles of infection until April or even May.

 

For example, today the mortality rate (updated from yesterday’s) is just a tick under 2.4%...which doesn’t on its face seem that much worse than the common flu until you consider the rate of spread and overall lack of preparedness around most of the world. 
 

Netflix just debuted a six part show called Pandemic: How to Prevent an Outbreak, and there’s a much more interesting to watch series The Hot Zone based on the 1976 and 1989 (averted in DC area) ebola outbreaks.   Scary stuff.

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Over 9,000 suspected cases not included in the reporting as of yet because the testing can’t keep up (especially in smaller cities), which would put it at over 16,000 and climbing.

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2 hours ago, champagne030 said:

I'm going to guess the comment was related to China having roughly 5x the population of the U.S.

No....although that’s a better way to look at GDP wealth between the two countries.

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Caulfield why haven't you left your place in a week? Is your school you teach at closed? Please describe the scene in your city. What is it like. Bless u Caulfield. Take care of your family.

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On 1/30/2020 at 11:24 AM, greg775 said:

Caulfield why haven't you left your place in a week? Is your school you teach at closed? Please describe the scene in your city. What is it like. Bless u Caulfield. Take care of your family.

They had only one flight out and it was mostly for US Embassy staff across China and also high risk individuals, mostly 60+ or those with pre-existing conditions.

I could have trued to leave, but my wife and son wouldn’t have been able to come with me...then  would have faced a two week quarantine at a military base in CA, and had to figure out a way home to the freezing Quad Cities.

Meanwhile, our school and all of China (even elementary) is attempting online classes starting Feb 10th...which cant be done with the system from outside the country.   Some coworkers trapped in Thailand have been told if they don't come back to our suster school in Xi’an (terra cotta warriors location,) they will be replaced by local Chinese teachers.

Even my wife is already working online...for a company that sells car insurance when nobody has been allowed to drive for almost a week.  Imagine getting an ask about this when you've been stuck at home for weeks, lol.  Yet the company (her office) wants to clear 1500000 rmb in Jan/Feb sales.  Nobody could go out and buy a car even if they wanted, and many will start asking for refunds or that their car be considered as garaged or in storage.

There are plenty of videos online at scmp.com, cnn, bbc....Laurie Garrett at twitter has best, most informative scientific info. 

Basically, I haven't been outside once in ten or eleven days now.  Wife has gone out to get groceries twice wearing ski goggles and face mask, since the eyes are most vulnerable.  Nobody can enter a public place without mask, and almost everything in the entire province of sixty million is closed but for some of the grocery stores.

When people wake up this morning to realize you can pass it for a period of up to 15 days without being symptomatic, they will start to freak out a bit, just like the stock market did today.  Heck, you can even get it, be cleared...then contract it again.  Mortality rates are low so far, but very few have been medically cleared and tens of thousands have it but have not been diagnosed quickly enough for a number of bureaucratic reasons as well as the sheer limitation of hospital beds (about 10000).   They are even building two pop up prefabricated hospitals in just ten days to house an additional 2300, but too little too late IMO.

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8 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

They had only one flight out and it was mostly for US Embassy staff across China and also high risk individuals, mostly 60+ or those with pre-existing conditions.

I could have trued to leave, but my wife and son wouldn’t have been able to come with me...then  would have faced a two week quarantine at a military base in CA, and had to figure out a way home to the freezing Quad Cities.

Meanwhile, our school and all of China (even elementary) is attempting online classes starting Feb 10th...which cant be done with the system from outside the country.   Some coworkers trapped in Thailand have been told if they don't come back to our suster school in Xi’an (terra cotta warriors location,) they will be replaced by local Chinese teachers.

 Even my wife is already working online...for a company that sells car insurance when nobody has been allowed to drive for almost a week.  Imagine getting an ask about this when you've been stuck at home for weeks, lol.  Yet the company (her office) wants to clear 1500000 rmb in Jan/Feb sales.  Nobody could go out and buy a car even if they wanted, and many will start asking for refunds or that their car be considered as garaged or in storage.

 There are plenty of videos online at scmp.com, cnn, bbc....Laurie Garrett at twitter has best, most informative scientific info. 

Basically, I haven't been outside once in ten or eleven days now.  Wife has gone out to get groceries twice wearing ski goggles and face mask, since the eyes are most vulnerable.  Nobody can enter a public place without mask, and almost everything in the entire province of sixty million is closed but for some of the grocery stores.

When people wake up this morning to realize you can pass it for a period of up to 15 days without being symptomatic, they will start to freak out a bit, just like the stock market did today.  Heck, you can even get it, be cleared...then contract it again.  Mortality rates are low so far, but very few have been medically cleared and tens of thousands have it but have not been diagnosed quickly enough for a number of bureaucratic reasons as well as the sheer limitation of hospital beds (about 10000).   They are even building two pop up prefabricated hospitals in just ten days to house an additional 2300, but too little too late IMO.

Geez. Do the stores have food? Enough food? I did have a question. I've read the symptoms are usually not life threatening. What would happen if people just went about their everyday lives. I mean when we get a bad cold or the flu here, most people only take a day off work. Sure people get infected and sick from others germs but life goes on. How come they can't just let the disease run its course like the flu here? Just let everybody go out and about and whoever gets sick gets sick a week max? Like the flu here? I mean if it's not life threatning is it that big a deal if peeps get sick? Bless you and yours! It must be maddening to never leave your house.

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