COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[ptatc]

9 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If you can’t expect that, then you can expect a few million deaths. We can’t fix that problem now, we have to treat the emergency situation.

Figure the rest out once we have limited the explosion.

There's nothing out there even remotely suggested there will be a few million deaths. 

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The economy is not going to improve as long as things continue to progress. The economy has only gotten worse, not better. If you allow this to happen over 4 months, you're talking about a recession that takes years to recover from. 

If we all accept the bleeding today, up front, for the next few weeks the recovery can start sooner.

This is an interesting question for economics. I imagine there are people lined up on both sides of the argument stating which one would be better.

[StrangeSox]

6 minutes ago, Jenksismyhero said:

How many millions died as a result of the great depression? If this is where a total shutdown gets us - which is what you seem to be advocating for -  what's the point?

Unless you want to start including deaths from WW2 which arguably was caused by the Great Depression, then the answer here is actually pretty surprising:

https://phys.org/news/2009-09-life-death-great-depression.html

 

Short answer is that while there was widespread suffering, deaths due to starvation were in the hundreds per year. Uptick in suicides, but otherwise not really an increase in mortality.

4 minutes ago, ptatc said:

There's nothing out there even remotely suggested there will be a few million deaths. 

70-150M infected at 1-3% mortality rates...

Edited March 12, 2020 by StrangeSox

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, ptatc said:

This is an interesting question for economics. I imagine there are people lined up on both sides of the argument stating which one would be better.

Yes, I have spent days in meetings the past week and it's crazy to see the consensus (but not everyone) on the side I am presenting. I am not naive enough to think I have the answer, surely, but I do believe people on this side of the aisle have substantiated their position statistically and I feel this is the right direction to head. Odds are, the President and the GOP will not get on board. The financial industry is turning quickly on this administration. The tides have turned; hopefully action is next.

[mqr]

On the economy, this has a real chance to be China's post WWII moment if they are actually past this and other global economies are in the dumpster for an extended period of time. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 minutes ago, mqr said:

On the economy, this has a real chance to be China's post WWII moment if they are actually past this and other global economies are in the dumpster for an extended period of time. 

Nothing they can do if no one is buying their products; China also isn't "past this" by any means IMO.

China is just a COG in the supply chain and if the chain is broken/shut down, they can't benefit from their freedoms within the locked down market. 

[Balta1701]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Nothing they can do if no one is buying their products; China also isn't "past this" by any means IMO.

China is just a COG in the supply chain and if the chain is broken/shut down, they can't benefit from their freedoms within the locked down market. 

We are at the point now that countries like Iran, Italy, and the US are exporting this back to parts of China.

[ptatc]

10 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Unless you want to start including deaths from WW2 which arguably was caused by the Great Depression, then the answer here is actually pretty surprising:

https://phys.org/news/2009-09-life-death-great-depression.html

 

Short answer is that while there was widespread suffering, deaths due to starvation were in the hundreds per year. Uptick in suicides, but otherwise not really an increase in mortality.

70-150M infected at 1-3% mortality rates...

I think we can all logically agree that the mortality rate being reported is far too high. In the US alone testing is being done on very few people. Many people have very mild symptoms and aren't testing. So the rate after all is said and done will be far lower than current;y reported. 

Edited March 12, 2020 by ptatc

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

I think we can all logically agree that the mortality rate being reported is far too high. In the US alone testing is being done on very few people. Many people have very mild symptoms and aren't testing. So the rate after all is said and done will be far lower than current;y reported. 

Even if the rate is 1/6th of what is reported, you're looking at deaths north of 500,000 towards 750,000.

[mqr]

This shit is probably going to end up being the most defining historical moment of our life time and uh we've already lived through a pretty big one. 

[Balta1701]

11 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I think we can all logically agree that the mortality rate being reported is far too high. In the US alone testing is being done on very few people. Many people have very mild symptoms and aren't testing. So the rate after all is said and done will be far lower than current;y reported. 

It’s only far too high if people can get treatment. The center is the outbreak in northern italy reportedly has seen a death rate >5% according to the Wall Street journal.

[StrangeSox]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

It’s only far too high if people can get treatment. The center is the outbreak in northern italy reportedly has seen a death rate >5% according to the Wall Street journal.

You could also see mortality of other diseases increase if there are no hospital beds or drugs available.

[TaylorStSox]

57 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't sound like an idiot or alarmist anymore for suggesting a shutdown days ago now, do I? 

They're continuing to be reactive and that's no good. 

You've never not been an alarmist. You spike with each strikeout. 

[TaylorStSox]

I'm just assuming the vast majority of us are going to get it, so we might as well just it over with so we can move on with our lives. I'm also assuming this is going to be a regular thing. There are simply too many people in this world. It's unsustainable. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

And here's your economic dagger boys:

"BREAKING: Mitch McConnell says he won’t look at House relief bill for coronavirus for another 12 days. This is absolutely insane and obscene. I feel as if it’s criminal. This negligence and playing politics is beyond corruption. Shame on GOP."

Get these self fulfilling scumbags out of office. 

Edited March 12, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[ptatc]

17 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Even if the rate is 1/6th of what is reported, you're looking at deaths north of 500,000 towards 750,000.

Which isn't a few million. Not that it is good or acceptable. My comment was on the exaggeration that we can expect a few million deaths.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, TaylorStSox said:

I'm just assuming the vast majority of us are going to get it, so we might as well just it over with so we can move on with our lives. I'm also assuming this is going to be a regular thing. There are simply too many people in this world. It's unsustainable. 

There are people here you are saying should just shut up and die.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

Which isn't a few million. Not that it is good or acceptable. My comment was on the exaggeration that we can expect a few million deaths.

Sure, but that's a SHIT TON of people.

[ptatc]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

It’s only far too high if people can get treatment. The center is the outbreak in northern italy reportedly has seen a death rate >5% according to the Wall Street journal.

Right but again. Was everyone even with mild symptoms tested? Also taking the rate from one area in northern Italy is not the way the research nor claculations should be done. Everyone on the board discusses small sample size in baseball. Same rule applies here.

[TaylorStSox]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

There are people here you are saying should just shut up and die.

It doesn't matter what I think. There are simply too many of us and we live too long. We can try to mitigate the consequences of an overly populated/aging society, but there's no stopping those consequences. Nature truly is metal and doesn't give a shit about us. 

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, TaylorStSox said:

It doesn't matter what I think. There are simply too many of us and we live too long. We can try to mitigate the consequences of an overly populated/aging society, but there's no stopping those consequences. Nature truly is metal and doesn't give a shit about us. 

The Thanos theory of the universe?

[Jack Parkman]

Well, the good news for us younger folk is that they're prioritizing us over older people if you come down with severe illness(at least in other countries overrun) 

Though I'm concerned a bit about myself fitting the criteria because I'm a fatass. Not really my choice because I was born with structural deformities in my legs that made physical activity severely painful. 

Edited March 12, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[TaylorStSox]

3 minutes ago, ptatc said:

The Thanos theory of the universe?

The what? 

[iWiN4PreP]

4 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

It doesn't matter what I think. There are simply too many of us and we live too long. We can try to mitigate the consequences of an overly populated/aging society, but there's no stopping those consequences. Nature truly is metal and doesn't give a shit about us. 

Your posts are garbage here.

First, your assumption (in other post) that the vast majority of us are going to get it may be true, but it's not about that. It's about stretching that timeline out so hospitals can compensate with it. We know we are likely going to get it, but if we do get it, we want proper health to back it up. We won't get that if it all commences instantly like it did in Italy and the hospitals can't help.

Now you are suggesting us to shrug our shoulders with death. Like, ah, who cares if some old people die, it's nature. We've been fighting off 'nature' our whole life, no reason to get pessimistic and downright hateful now. Some of those you speak about are our friends, family members, and others who simply aren't ready to die yet to a virus because the infrastructure wasn't in place to protect them. 

[TaylorStSox]

1 minute ago, iWiN4PreP said:

Your posts are garbage here.

First, your assumption (in other post) that the vast majority of us are going to get it may be true, but it's not about that. It's about stretching that timeline out so hospitals can compensate with it. We know we are likely going to get it, but if we do get it, we want proper health to back it up. We won't get that if it all commences instantly like it did in Italy and the hospitals can't help.

Now you are suggesting us to shrug our shoulders with death. Like, ah, who cares if some old people die, it's nature. We've been fighting off 'nature' our whole life, no reason to get pessimistic and downright hateful now. Some of those you speak about are our friends, family members, and others who simply aren't ready to die yet to a virus because the infrastructure wasn't in place to protect them. 

You're confusing my intent with my acceptance of reality as I see it. Hate has nothing to do with it. At least it'll fix our social security woes.