COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, mqr said:

how can anyone possibly defend this? It’s absolute insanity. 

Texas is probably going to end up with something similar...based on comments from Gov. Abbott and especially the Lt. Governor.

Wonder if GOP governors and states are indemnified when this massive gamble goes south?

[Balta1701]

24 minutes ago, Texsox said:

I'm all for a careful study of ramping back to work. It seems plausible that we could start with workers who are least at risk and move to the most at risk instead of waiting for it to be safe for the most at risk group. 

I don't think there's any plausible format for ramping up back to work because it depends on what the situation is when we get to that. Right now the US is on a path accelerating in cases faster than Italy and China. If this explodes beyond what happened in China because places won't shut down or because they insist on reopening too soon...

China's an interesting case because it seems like they're slowly opening as community transmission stops, but they're doing so when countries on their border are about to start exporting cases back to them. They're an extreme case in the shutdown an d in number of transmissions, but so far who knows? 

For the US, there's already some obvious potential issues. Stop transmission in New York, but transmission ongoing in prisons in Texas and it gets exported right back to New York. Or, stop transmission in california and uninsured people in Texas keep transmission going.

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Yes, that is literally what it tells us. They stopped it in China by shutting down hundreds of millions of people for 3 months.

62 million.

Like shutting down all of California or Italy for eleven full weeks.

And there’s still a growing concern with roughly one million migrant workers finally leaving the province (they were trapped and now in massive debt after going so long without income, and no bailout checks ) and eventually city for their factory/manufacturing jobs in other areas of the country.

One local case in Hubei and only “imported” cases across the country....nobody believes it.

There were supposedly ten new Covid cases at Xiehe Hospital today, not very far from where I live.

Edited March 24, 2020 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Texas is probably going to end up with something similar...based on comments from Gov. Abbott and especially the Lt. Governor.

Wonder if GOP governors and states are indemnified when this massive gamble goes south?

Texas's governor has mostly allowed localities to declare shutdowns, and most of the urban areas are doing so as of today. 

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Texas's governor has mostly allowed localities to declare shutdowns, and most of the urban areas are doing so as of today. 

Okay, thank god the #2 in command isn’t in charge, then.

[southsideirish71]

So we bunker in place for 3 months.  Then we come out of the bunker and wave 2 hits.  then we bunker in place for another 3 months.  then we come out and wave 3 hits.  I don't see how this scales to tell people to bunker for the next year.   Is this the plan.  One year of isolation?  

[T R U]

21 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Texas's governor has mostly allowed localities to declare shutdowns, and most of the urban areas are doing so as of today. 

Unfortunately, everyone is finding some way to claim they are essential so they don't need to shut down even though the order came through this morning in the county I live in (Harris)

 

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, Tony said:

Good luck, grandpa. Hope you don't die. 

It would be nice if the President had any idea of history, at all.

[mqr]

14 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

So we bunker in place for 3 months.  Then we come out of the bunker and wave 2 hits.  then we bunker in place for another 3 months.  then we come out and wave 3 hits.  I don't see how this scales to tell people to bunker for the next year.   Is this the plan.  One year of isolation?  

Idk what the plan is or should be. What the plan can't be is do it half assed for a week, then open things up literally as you see New York and others start to hit a critical mass.

[Soxbadger]

26 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

So we bunker in place for 3 months.  Then we come out of the bunker and wave 2 hits.  then we bunker in place for another 3 months.  then we come out and wave 3 hits.  I don't see how this scales to tell people to bunker for the next year.   Is this the plan.  One year of isolation?  

I think the plan is to get the appropriate amount of tests so that we can test everyone. Then we can work with 1) who is sick, 2) who has been sick and likely not able to get sick again and 3) who isnt sick and who we need to protect.

If we had a taken this seriously to start, we could have done those 3 things and likely never had to do any of this. There is some old saying, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. Unfortunate lythe current administration doesnt like to follow that saying. 

Edited March 24, 2020 by Soxbadger

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

H1N1 - 12,500 USA deaths (nothing happened, no one knew). Corona Virus ~500 deaths (Markets crash, close down businesses, forced to stay home)... Just seems slightly strange to me.

[Soxbadger]

1 minute ago, Tony said:

So what's the conspiracy? Who's in on it? Is Italy, S. Korea, UK, Canada, the rest of the world also in on it? 

I'm genuinely curious? 

Its George Soros revenge. 

[bmags]

28 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

H1N1 - 12,500 USA deaths (nothing happened, no one knew). Corona Virus ~500 deaths (Markets crash, close down businesses, forced to stay home)... Just seems slightly strange to me.

World War II - 75 million died, 6 years long, billions of dollars of destruction

Spanish American War - 17,000 died, 10 weeks long, thousands of dollars of destruction

...seems a little bizarre to me.

[southsider2k5]

7 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

H1N1 - 12,500 USA deaths (nothing happened, no one knew). Corona Virus ~500 deaths (Markets crash, close down businesses, forced to stay home)... Just seems slightly strange to me.

It amazes me how many people fall for a meme.

Do the basic math on the death rates here and then get back to me.  Nevermind, as I want to make sure it gets done, so I will do it for you.  The meme listed about 60 million cases of H1N1 and the deaths you mentioned.  The death rate is 0.0002.  Covid so far is running at 634 deaths in just under 50,000 cases, for a death rate in the US of 0.012 or about 63 times higher of a death rate.  It is also still expanding at an exponential rate, so let's not pretend that "~500 deaths" is the end of it.

Put another way, H1N1 put up 12.500 deaths in 60 million cases in the US.  World wide we are at 18274 deaths in almost 410,000 cases.  So 50% more deaths in one half of one percent of number of cases.

It really isn't that complex.

 

[Soxbadger]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It amazes me how many people fall for a meme.

Do the basic math on the death rates here and then get back to me.  Nevermind, as I want to make sure it gets done, so I will do it for you.  The meme listed about 60 million cases of H1N1 and the deaths you mentioned.  The death rate is 0.0002.  Covid so far is running at 634 deaths in just under 50,000 cases, for a death rate in the US of 0.012 or about 63 times higher of a death rate.  It is also still expanding at an exponential rate, so let's not pretend that "~500 deaths" is the end of it.

Put another way, H1N1 put up 12.500 deaths in 60 million cases in the US.  World wide we are at 18274 deaths in almost 410,000 cases.  So 50% more deaths in one half of one percent of number of cases.

It really isn't that complex.

 

Woah woah woah, enough of your math and science. What does your hunch say about it? We are at 15 cases well be at 0 in a few days, so dont do anything proactive, its going to magically disappear. 

[Balta1701]

48 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

So we bunker in place for 3 months.  Then we come out of the bunker and wave 2 hits.  then we bunker in place for another 3 months.  then we come out and wave 3 hits.  I don't see how this scales to tell people to bunker for the next year.   Is this the plan.  One year of isolation?  

 

32 minutes ago, Soxbadger said:

I think the plan is to get the appropriate amount of tests so that we can test everyone. Then we can work with 1) who is sick, 2) who has been sick and likely not able to get sick again and 3) who isnt sick and who we need to protect.

If we had a taken this seriously to start, we could have done those 3 things and likely never had to do any of this. There is some old saying, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. Unfortunate lythe current administration doesnt like to follow that saying. 

Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Singapore have shown fully that aggressive testing, tracing, and isolation can absolutely work against this. So if you can stop the first wave and you aren't filling mass graves, you institute that policy - any time anyone is sick, you test them, you test everyone around them, you test everyone who went to the same place as them, and anyone who comes back positive you do the exact same thing - isolate, then test, test, test. 

If and when you do start getting clusters, that way within a week or two you've identified them and you're at least limiting its ability to explode. 

South Korea seems to be the worst failure of this; they had a patient who was positive (patient 31) who was supposed to isolate but who instead went out shopping and to church, and literally thousands of cases trace back to that one person.

 

 

[Balta1701]

15 minutes ago, bmags said:

World War II - 75 million died, 6 years long, billions of dollars of destruction

Spanish World War - 17,000 died, 10 weeks long, thousands of dollars of destruction

...seems a little bizarre to me.

WTF is the Spanish World War?

 

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

WTF is the Spanish World War?

 

lol damn it, when you are american it's your whole world baby.

[southsider2k5]

38 minutes ago, Soxbadger said:

Woah woah woah, enough of your math and science. What does your hunch say about it? We are at 15 cases well be at 0 in a few days, so dont do anything proactive, its going to magically disappear. 

It is almost April afterall.

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It is almost April afterall.

While I am destroying myths, can we also quit pretending that no one freaked out about H1N1?  Maybe because no one remembers the technical name, but "Swine Flu" was a 24/7 news cycle thing for quite a while.  There were plenty of people who freaked out about.  Maybe you are too young to remember it, but this was declared a pandemic, and it did get people worried.  Let me take you back to 2009

https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2009/1024/america-in-the-midst-of-two-major-national-emergencies

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/examining-the-anatomy-of-a-pandemic-and-the-h1n1-scare

https://www.livescience.com/41539-2009-swine-flu-death-toll-higher.html

https://www.healthleadersmedia.com/strategy/swine-flu-scare-abates-lessons-future

[Texsox]

Graduation that year was interesting. We bowed as we crossed the stage. 

And, can't we strive to do better?

[mqr]

35 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

While I am destroying myths, can we also quit pretending that no one freaked out about H1N1?  Maybe because no one remembers the technical name, but "Swine Flu" was a 24/7 news cycle thing for quite a while.  There were plenty of people who freaked out about.  Maybe you are too young to remember it, but this was declared a pandemic, and it did get people worried.  Let me take you back to 2009

https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2009/1024/america-in-the-midst-of-two-major-national-emergencies

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/examining-the-anatomy-of-a-pandemic-and-the-h1n1-scare

https://www.livescience.com/41539-2009-swine-flu-death-toll-higher.html

https://www.healthleadersmedia.com/strategy/swine-flu-scare-abates-lessons-future

I had swine flu. I would do just about anything to not have it again. 
 

And by every account this sucks way worse. 

[mqr]

[Balta1701]

42 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

While I am destroying myths, can we also quit pretending that no one freaked out about H1N1?  Maybe because no one remembers the technical name, but "Swine Flu" was a 24/7 news cycle thing for quite a while.  There were plenty of people who freaked out about.  Maybe you are too young to remember it, but this was declared a pandemic, and it did get people worried.  Let me take you back to 2009

https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2009/1024/america-in-the-midst-of-two-major-national-emergencies

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/examining-the-anatomy-of-a-pandemic-and-the-h1n1-scare

https://www.livescience.com/41539-2009-swine-flu-death-toll-higher.html

https://www.healthleadersmedia.com/strategy/swine-flu-scare-abates-lessons-future

The day I defended my thesis, I sat down for 20 minutes, then went to the clinic for H1N1 shot day to celebrate. 

[pcq]

Just now, Tony said:

Good luck, grandpa. Hope you don't die. 

We Orangeshirts will march the experts to the guillotine!!  Unless Cuomo is another lying pol this sh*t is gonna get some kinda real. I am in dire need of a Kayleigh McEnany update right now.