COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[ScootsMcGoots]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

This is why you need to get your # of new cases down low and number of tests/tracing high. It's the only shot. If your state isn't doing that, then yes, it will start spreading like wildfire.

PS: it is insanity that there are no national guidelines or leadership for this, since roads, you know, cross state 

You can't reallly call what is currently in the white house leadership

[southsider2k5]

27 minutes ago, Harry Chappas said:

I do not believe the Russia and China totals at all.  Also it started in China yet they have the lowest death rate. 

The China numbers are obviously trash, and that should have been obvious from day one. They shutdown a City bigger than NYC.

The question is why the President trusted them.

[The Beast]

1 hour ago, greg775 said:

This is very scary. Food shortages apparently are imminent which would mean disaster. Riots trying to buy food, etc. Anybody think we can survive this? Talk me off the ledge please, figuratively speaking.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/food-supply-chain-breaking-tyson-213539680.html

The sky isn’t falling. Eat plants.

[caulfield12]

11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

This is why you need to get your # of new cases down low and number of tests/tracing high. It's the only shot. If your state isn't doing that, then yes, it will start spreading like wildfire.

PS: it is insanity that there are no national guidelines or leadership for this, since roads, you know, cross state lines. 

Well, they can’t even get airline passengers limited to essential travel only...because, profits.  The Flight Attendants’ union is having to fight this battle, about PPE on planes, about discouraging touristic travel until the virus is contained, etc.  They obviously don’t have the choice whether to work or not if they want to keep their jobs. 

[caulfield12]

9 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The China numbers are obviously trash, and that should have been obvious from day one. They shutdown a City bigger than NYC.

The question is why the President trusted them.

Which leads to an obvious point.

In a concentrated geographic area less than half the size of California but roughly the same population....we went from January 23rd through April 26th before reopening the city close to 100% (schools, theatres, restaurants still not open.)

That’s three full months.  The US is still right in the middle of that timeframe...6-7 weeks. 

Our problems here were primarily concentrated in ONE contiguous area, not roughly 35 different states (with a vast divergence in mitigation strategies) compared to one unified, nationwide approach.

[southsider2k5]

30 minutes ago, ScooterMcGee said:

Yeah I really don't understand it. Some reputable and legitimate reporting is saying that deaths are falsely being recorded as due to covid, and some are saying the death is  much higher like you say. 

And again I think, as far as reopening states, we really need to take a look at this regionally. In Michigan, for example, I just listened to our governor and her team's press conference. We've ramped up testing a lot and we are finding that the % of tests that are positive are in fact dropping. Is that due to social distancing and stay at home order? Yeah, most likely. But again what happens when we reopen completely? Will this thing start spreading like wildfire again? We can't stay home until we have a vaccine. It would take too long.

Ugh. The whole all deaths are Covid thing is garbage. Again,  if you look at the numbers there is a clear statistical analysis that points to underreporting.  I am going to trust that, especially when the argument doesn't make sense. The county I live in has recorded exactly 5 covid deaths in a month and a half. The state has 900 deaths. Do you really think a state with 6 million people has only had 900 people die in 2 months time? A county with 100,000 people has had way more than 5 deaths in 6 weeks.

The Post analysis actually dug into the numbers into how and why.

[Jerksticks]

So is it safe to say South Korea is the best example of trace and contain?

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

So is it safe to say South Korea is the best example of trace and contain?

Probably.

Germany, Iceland, Taiwan, Hong Kong and New Zealand some of the other standouts...Singapore before the weakness in keeping migrant/imported laborers clustered together in inhumanely overcrowded apartments due to the exorbitant cost of living space.

[Jerksticks]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Probably.

Germany, Iceland, Taiwan, Hong Kong and New Zealand some of the other standouts...Singapore before the weakness in keeping migrant/imported laborers clustered together in inhumanely overcrowded apartments due to the exorbitant cost of living space.

Now do they keep everything locked down forever?  Do you ban thousands of international travelers every day if it reopens?  Do you make them do 14-day quarantines?  I mean, cuz you want to trace and contain every possible case since 99.9999999% of the population is still completely vulnerable.  I see this going well, sitting around waiting for a vaccine, closing down borders completely and forbidding all international in-and-out.  Since obviously that’s the only way to contain something this ridiculously infectious.  
 

I’m not sure this is something to be proud of, closing life indefinitely & banking everything on the hopeful development of a perfect vaccine.  

[Balta1701]

Just now, Jerksticks said:

Now do they keep everything locked down forever?  Do you ban thousands of international travelers every day if it reopens?  Do you make them do 14-day quarantines?  I mean, cuz you want to trace and contain every possible case since 99.9999999% of the population is still completely vulnerable.  I see this going well, sitting around waiting for a vaccine, closing down borders completely and forbidding all international in-and-out.  Since obviously that’s the only way to contain something this ridiculously infectious.  
 

I’m not sure this is something to be proud of, closing life indefinitely & banking everything on the hopeful development of a perfect vaccine.  

If you actually had a nationwide system to do it, you could do contact tracing involving apps and cell phones for international travelers, South Korea and Australia have rolled out systems like that for their own populations. But again, Washington State can't do that alone and have a different app than Florida, we'd need a functioning national government effort.

[StrangeSox]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Probably.

Germany, Iceland, Taiwan, Hong Kong and New Zealand some of the other standouts...Singapore before the weakness in keeping migrant/imported laborers clustered together in inhumanely overcrowded apartments due to the exorbitant cost of living space.

Australia and Hawaii are doing well too

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, Jerksticks said:

Now do they keep everything locked down forever?  Do you ban thousands of international travelers every day if it reopens?  Do you make them do 14-day quarantines?  I mean, cuz you want to trace and contain every possible case since 99.9999999% of the population is still completely vulnerable.  I see this going well, sitting around waiting for a vaccine, closing down borders completely and forbidding all international in-and-out.  Since obviously that’s the only way to contain something this ridiculously infectious.  
 

I’m not sure this is something to be proud of, closing life indefinitely & banking everything on the hopeful development of a perfect vaccine.  

How many people are acceptable for you to kill in the pursuit of economy?  Where do you draw the line?

[almagest]

Quote

Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, Governor Andrew M. Cuomo announced the results of phase two of the state's antibody testing survey. The preliminary results show 14.9 percent of the population have COVID-19 antibodies. The preliminary results of phase one of the state's antibody testing survey released on April 23rd showed 13.9 percent of the population have COVID-19 antibodies.

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-phase-ii-results-antibody-testing-study

If 14.9% of people have antibodies for COVID-19 that means almost 3 million people in NY state have been infected.

Also according to this 24.7% of people in NYC tested positive. If these numbers are accurate around 2.07 million NYC residents have had COVID-19, a 1196% increase from the official 160K confirmed cases figure.

There is improved specificity on these tests as well.

Edited April 28, 2020 by almagest

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Jerksticks said:

Now do they keep everything locked down forever?  Do you ban thousands of international travelers every day if it reopens?  Do you make them do 14-day quarantines?  I mean, cuz you want to trace and contain every possible case since 99.9999999% of the population is still completely vulnerable.  I see this going well, sitting around waiting for a vaccine, closing down borders completely and forbidding all international in-and-out.  Since obviously that’s the only way to contain something this ridiculously infectious.  
 

I’m not sure this is something to be proud of, closing life indefinitely & banking everything on the hopeful development of a perfect vaccine.  

South Korea and China have similar mobile phone applications.

Hyperbole aside, South Korea presents their citizens with a considerable number of freedoms, comparatively.  I worked there, so I should know.  The ones in China work through WeChat and Alipay (Alibaba’s mobile payments’ platform.) 

The elephant in the room though...are you willing to allow a government controlled app to track your every single movement through GPS?   To provide you a green (okay to work), yellow (warning) or red (must go into quarantine) based on a comprehensive set of data analysis parameters and algorithms?   Are all 200 something million American adults?  

What about seniors or kids without cell phones, much more common in the US than in Asian countries, where absolutely every living soul except my coworker who attended Princeton had a smartphone at the beginning of this crisis.

This app tracks your proximity to infected people...or at least those with a temperature...and allows one to access block by block and neighborhood/district by neighborhood detailed information about active cases.

The problem is that we are not willing or unable to assign ten thousands (or in the case of China, millions) of trained workers to do contact tracing across the country.   Most states with huge problems are on the verge on bankruptcy or insolvency, so funds would have to come from the Federal level to support public health initiatives.

Dr. Birx has already basically thrown her hands up in the air and given up...hoping for some near future technological breakthrough on testing.

 

Willingly or unwillingly, the entire country is now just rolling the dice, HOPING to protect the 20% most vulnerable and not to wipe out the other 80% in the process.

The problem is that roughly 60% of Americans are elevated risk due to age or health factors.

Whatever they do, opening businesses at 20-40% of previous capacity but 80-90% of the previous overhead costs is not going to save the economy.   Only science can do that.   Not a national salesman, confidence man  or cheerleader. Politicians have never successfully confronted the public health crises of the last 150 years, only scientists have succeeded. And that will always be the case.  We don’t need political solutions geared towards winning elections in the short term, we need long term investment in this sector so we’re 100% prepared for the next wave, the next year...the next emerging pandemic that’s lurking in a cave or wild animal somewhere in the world at this very moment. 

 

Edited April 28, 2020 by caulfield12

[Heads22]

 

 

[caulfield12]

12 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

How many people are acceptable for you to kill in the pursuit of economy?  Where do you draw the line?

We’re never going to get a number...doing so makes those individuals sound like a cross between Mussolini and Pol Pot.

It’s simply not the way most of us were raised.  To willingly sacrifice so many American lives that were 100% preventable.   This is clearly not the same issue as sending transport ships against fortified pillboxes on Omaha Beach. 

[StrangeSox]

4 minutes ago, Heads22 said:

 

 

(This is why they are doing this)

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, Heads22 said:

 

 

Of course, if you don’t have access to testing...especially rural counties...which encompasses 80-85% of the state, you can never qualify since Covid won’t ever be verified and you’ll be (expletive deleted) out of luck.

But the cat’s out of the bag on how red states are planning on saving money.  But I would hardly agree that’s a utilitarian case of the greatest good for the greatest number of people.

Edited April 28, 2020 by caulfield12

[StrangeSox]

This seems like a bad idea

 

[Texsox]

3 hours ago, greg775 said:

This is very scary. Food shortages apparently are imminent which would mean disaster. Riots trying to buy food, etc. Anybody think we can survive this? Talk me off the ledge please, figuratively speaking.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/food-supply-chain-breaking-tyson-213539680.html

Buy a gun or don't eat. Widespread looting, only the rich will have easy access to food. I'd watch Soylent Green to be prepared. 

[bmags]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-secret-group-of-scientists-and-billionaires-pushing-trump-on-a-covid-19-plan-11587998993?emailToken=52281952aa731ce0ab195686a0f7bb91pNX96nrwqAd54J2pUtMOCm5Z+w4rSBr9tLpbY1PXzgxmDzoEKnEyrWvzsA4DD2q1fyUqRqsI04tCYInkXLdpzfOKKgFRcbhJeSVGeSro62IzsH+S6FQWYXPUV4NFUPb1waqCKYwuUcT8jt6kinc1uA%3D%3D&reflink=article_copyURL_share

very interesting article

[greg775]

5 hours ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

I hear greg has a head of hair that rivals Brad Pitt's. You can't put a price on keeping that head of hair properly maintained. It's worth the risk. 

the long hair is giving me headaches. I need it cut.

[hi8is]

2 hours ago, greg775 said:

the long hair is giving me headaches. I need it cut.

Go for it.

[Harry Chappas]

12 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

South Korea and China have similar mobile phone applications.

Hyperbole aside, South Korea presents their citizens with a considerable number of freedoms, comparatively.  I worked there, so I should know.  The ones in China work through WeChat and Alipay (Alibaba’s mobile payments’ platform.) 

The elephant in the room though...are you willing to allow a government controlled app to track your every single movement through GPS?   To provide you a green (okay to work), yellow (warning) or red (must go into quarantine) based on a comprehensive set of data analysis parameters and algorithms?   Are all 200 something million American adults?  

What about seniors or kids without cell phones, much more common in the US than in Asian countries, where absolutely every living soul except my coworker who attended Princeton had a smartphone at the beginning of this crisis.

This app tracks your proximity to infected people...or at least those with a temperature...and allows one to access block by block and neighborhood/district by neighborhood detailed information about active cases.

The problem is that we are not willing or unable to assign ten thousands (or in the case of China, millions) of trained workers to do contact tracing across the country.   Most states with huge problems are on the verge on bankruptcy or insolvency, so funds would have to come from the Federal level to support public health initiatives.

Dr. Birx has already basically thrown her hands up in the air and given up...hoping for some near future technological breakthrough on testing.

 

Willingly or unwillingly, the entire country is now just rolling the dice, HOPING to protect the 20% most vulnerable and not to wipe out the other 80% in the process.

The problem is that roughly 60% of Americans are elevated risk due to age or health factors.

Whatever they do, opening businesses at 20-40% of previous capacity but 80-90% of the previous overhead costs is not going to save the economy.   Only science can do that.   Not a national salesman, confidence man  or cheerleader. Politicians have never successfully confronted the public health crises of the last 150 years, only scientists have succeeded. And that will always be the case.  We don’t need political solutions geared towards winning elections in the short term, we need long term investment in this sector so we’re 100% prepared for the next wave, the next year...the next emerging pandemic that’s lurking in a cave or wild animal somewhere in the world at this very moment. 

 

 

I am only being partially sarcastic when I compare this to the 2nd Amendment and gun control.  There is a good percentage of America that feels like the government is out to get them.  Of that group my guess is a majority can only survive because the government props them up.  I don't care if the government can track me, I am not going anywhere.  but i also feel that semi automatic weapons are not needed in life.   

America is pretty selfish as a whole and then has this fear that government and big business are try to control their life on top of it.  I have a friend that is a government employee that hates the government....yet if it weren't for his bullshit government job he'd be destitute instead of retiring at 52 years old at 65% of his pay and will never have to work again in his life and can retire to his summer home and finish the story of the American Dream provided by the same government that he hates.

The only hope is Biden finds a great VP, builds an amazing cabinet and then retires four months in.

Edited April 28, 2020 by Harry Chappas

[StrangeSox]

 

contrast: