COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[caulfield12]

The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS May 7-10 among a random national sample of 1,112 adults reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer, including 1,001 registered voters and 583 voters in battleground states, defined as the 15 states decided by 8 points or less in 2016 -- Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

 

This is the first poll I've seen with Biden actually trailing in the battleground states...by 7 points.   That said, do the math for 15 states with those numbers and you could have just 39 voters (on average) representing each of these battleground states (some with quite significant populations.)    It would be Trump 303 and Biden with 262 and then another 18 "others."

All of the major betting sites have the cumulative average as Trump at 49.9 and Biden at 41.7 (won't get into all the possible reasons for that, but it starts out with Trump having significantly more "hardcore" followers or for sure/certain voters.)

Statistical noise, or a meaningful sign that the push to reopen is starting to resonate more and more around the country?  It's pretty difficult to ascertain as of yet.    We should know more conclusively by June 1st.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/13/politics/cnn-poll-2020/index.html

Edited May 14, 2020 by caulfield12

[Heads22]

I know there's been a lot of discussion that its difficult to envision a world where Biden is up five nationally but that far behind in their selection of battleground states

[StrangeSox]

 

[caulfield12]

49 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

 

That would put it at anywhere from a 6-12X higher mortality rate compared to the common/seasonal flu.

We can split the difference and just call it 9X worse.

 

 

It's going to be interesting to see the results here in Wuhan....attempting to test 11 million with the throat swab/nucleic acid antibody test before next Friday.

It won't be 100% conclusive, since roughly 4-5 million left the city in the first three weeks of January (especially university students, who comprise 2 million of the seasonal population and are presumably all back in their home cities/provinces, would have a higher rate of contracting but much lower death rate).

Edited May 14, 2020 by caulfield12

[The Beast]

1 hour ago, Kyyle23 said:

*jeff joniak voice*

https://giphy.com/gifs/devin-hester-XYjl3MoWXmgJq

[The Beast]

1 hour ago, Heads22 said:

I know there's been a lot of discussion that its difficult to envision a world where Biden is up five nationally but that far behind in their selection of battleground states

How so? 

[Texsox]

[StrangeSox]

Bad news about the Abbott tests again

 

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

They are estimating less than 3% of Indiana has been infected. 

https://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/11-times-more-hoosiers-infected-with-covid-19-than-testing-suggests-study-finds/article_6f3c7b81-be45-5b6a-92c8-01cd2460eae6.html?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_The_Times_of_Northwest_Indiana

 

Don't let Jerksticks see this. No way 50% of population hasn't gotten it!

[greg775]

5 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

Dr. Trump has assured us this will just go away, vaccine or not. And a lot sooner than anyone thinks. He is the smartest person in the history of the world.

He's really taking a chance. I heard him today say college should definitely be in session, maybe have teachers over 60 take a few months off. If colleges open and it's a disaster, Trump won't be able to escape the consequences. I bet if COVID runs amok he withdraws from the race. If covid is controlled he'll probably win again.

[greg775]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

That would put it at anywhere from a 6-12X higher mortality rate compared to the common/seasonal flu.

We can split the difference and just call it 9X worse.

 

 

It's going to be interesting to see the results here in Wuhan....attempting to test 11 million with the throat swab/nucleic acid antibody test before next Friday.

It won't be 100% conclusive, since roughly 4-5 million left the city in the first three weeks of January (especially university students, who comprise 2 million of the seasonal population and are presumably all back in their home cities/provinces, would have a higher rate of contracting but much lower death rate).

Do you get treated special by the government over in China since you came over to teach? Or have you had bad experiences with the authorities there? Do they treat you with respect or like anybody else?

[Jerksticks]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Don't let Jerksticks see this. No way 50% of population hasn't gotten it!

Ha.  Dude I’m upping my percentage now that Caulfield says 4-5 million people left Wuhan the first 3 weeks of January.  63% minimum.  

[caulfield12]

46 minutes ago, greg775 said:

Do you get treated special by the government over in China since you came over to teach? Or have you had bad experiences with the authorities there? Do they treat you with respect or like anybody else?

Much better than in a US public high school.   Because we are one of the most expensive intl. schools in the city and have the most placements for elite universities abroad, at least of any major city outside Beijing, Hong Kong and Shanghai, so we are certainly prioritized compared to ESL/language teachers backpacking across Asia.   But education is much more highly valued and teachers more respected across nearly every single Asian culture. 

That said, the last week or so out in public there are so few foreigners remaining we get stopped for documents and temperature checks nearly everywhere we go in public. There's a tangible fear of foreigners importing the virus....they don't know I have been here the whole time, so they probably believe many of us are sick from watching worldwide coverage.   90% of infections are related to locals and returning students. 

Edited May 14, 2020 by caulfield12

[Jerksticks]

14 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Much better than in a US public high school.   Because we are one of the most expensive intl. schools in the city and have the most placements for elite universities abroad, at least of any major city outside Beijing, Hong Kong and Shanghai, so we are certainly prioritized compared to ESL/language teachers backpacking across Asia.   But education is much more highly valued and teachers more respected across nearly every single Asian culture. 

That said, the last week or so out in public there are so few foreigners remaining we get stopped for documents and temperature checks nearly everywhere we go in public. There's a tangible fear of foreigners importing the virus....they don't know I have been here the whole time, so they probably believe many of us are sick from watching worldwide coverage.   90% of infections are related to locals and returning students. 

 Are they quarantining ALL foreigners who enter?  If so, for how long?

[caulfield12]

28 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

 Are they quarantining ALL foreigners who enter?  If so, for how long?

No foreigners have been allowed into the country since the end of March.

Chinese coming back from abroad, students, tourists...mandatory two week quarantines.

Have been told this ban might last until October, or even January of 2021.   So I essentially can’t leave to go home to the US for summer vacation and return to my family and job, at least as things stand now.

First test will be renormalizing flights with South Korea, Thailand, Japan and Bali in all likelihood.   Americans might be the last group cleared, along with the UK.

 

[caulfield12]

9 hours ago, Heads22 said:

I know there's been a lot of discussion that its difficult to envision a world where Biden is up five nationally but that far behind in their selection of battleground states

Battlegrounds	Biden	Trump	Spread
Wisconsin	46.0	43.3	Biden +2.7
Pennsylvania	48.3	41.8	Biden +6.5
North Carolina	46.7	47.0	Trump +0.3
Florida	46.5	43.3	Biden +3.2

Georgia               47-46   Biden +1

Texas                   43-43

https://www.yahoo.com/news/cnn-buries-own-poll-results-011348264.html

Only after all of this stuff did we learn that CNN has a new poll out, under the headline, “CNN Poll: Biden tops Trump nationwide, but battlegrounds tilt Trump.” Polls are expensive, news organizations tend to hype them breathlessly to generate headlines in rival media outlets, Wednesday was (obviously) a slow news day, and politics is one of CNN’s core topics. Yet CNN seemed oddly unenthused about its own poll. And the story to which the homepage linked doesn’t mention that Trump had never scored higher in a CNN poll. True, there are lots of noisy data in the piece, most of which cut against Trump. But on the other hand the single most surprising and hence most newsworthy detail of the poll was that Trump holds a seven-point lead over Biden in the battleground states. The CNN story doesn’t even tell us what that figure is — seven points seems like a pretty big number — and downplays its own finding by noting, “Given the small sample size in that subset of voters, it is difficult to determine with certainty whether the movement is significant or a fluke of random sampling.”

The headline of a different CNN news story about the same poll carries the headline, “CNN Poll: Negative ratings for government handling of coronavirus persist” over a picture of Trump looking downcast. This story, unlike the other one, mentions (but not till the fourth paragraph) that Trump’s approval rating of 45 percent “now matches his high point in CNN polling dating back to the start of his term.”

Btw, Realclearpolitics.com average/aggregate numbers on a rolling basis, they had Michigan in the Biden column and actually added NC.   An uphill battle if Trump’s fighting for his political survival in FL, NC and even GA, but still 5 1/2 months left to go.   At the rate things are going, Biden can coast while sheltering at home up until September, and will have an appreciable bounce from his VP pick as well in August.   But Trump will use that financial advantage to hammer him the next 3 1/2 months unless Bloomberg fulfills his promise.  See below...

https://theintercept.com/2020/04/10/bloomberg-hawkfish-biden-campaign/

Edited May 14, 2020 by caulfield12

[StrangeSox]

8 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Don't let Jerksticks see this. No way 50% of population hasn't gotten it!

Similar numbers out of France

 

[pcq]

3 hours ago, Iwritecode said:

 

Illinois "requires" it but my wife works in a gas station where they don't enforce either the employees or the customers wearing them. My daughter works at a pizza place where they were told by management that they can't turn customers away for not wearing one. 

 

I've read that death certificates do have a place for secondary cause of death. I don't know if it's standard nation wide or not. 

TN Department Of Health reports that 53% of their CV cases have recovered. Most infected age group is 21-30. Largest number of the dear departed cases are in the plus 81 age group. I would be wondering about the status of the not recovered group still living. I also wonder about places with meat producers who are no longer reporting CV cases. Sounds rather evil. The whole animal processing industry is unsavory. 

[StrangeSox]

Nearly 3 million more people filing jobless claims last week, bringing the total to 36.5 million.

 

 

Edited May 14, 2020 by StrangeSox

[caulfield12]

8 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Nearly 3 million more people filing jobless claims last week, bringing the total to 36.5 million.

 

 

“The chips are starting to crumble.”    Eric Trump

[NWINFan]

Hey Greg - I don't wear a mask because I'm a proud leftist. I wear a mask because I don't want to be exposed to a lethal disease.

I don't criticize Trump for the sake of criticizing him. I fear for the country, and I think he doesn't have a clue.

I think the current paranoia is giving conspiracies a bad name. For example, I think there was a conspiracy to assassinate President Kennedy. I don't think there has been any conspiracy behind this crisis. Sometimes things are what they seem to be.

You are right about one thing: We are not in this together, and that starts right at the top. And you may be right about something else: Trump may win re-election. But that is because many don't want to hear the truth. They prefer his lies.

If I was president I would have consulted with everyone of every political stripe and all the medical experts I could find. I'd talk to as many foreign leaders as I could to see what was going on in their countries. Winning re-election would mean nothing to me if hundreds of thousands died on my watch.  And I wouldn't divide the country.

[bmags]

 

good stuff on travel procedure into HK.

[caulfield12]

Greg, you can get a haircut, Starbucks coffee, non-LGBTQ Subway sandwich and a reserved church pew if you simply hire these dudes!

 

SHEPHERD, Texas — When Jamie Williams decided to reopen her East Texas tattoo studio last week in defiance of the state’s coronavirus restrictions, she asked Philip Archibald for help. He showed up with his dog Zeus, his friends and his AR-15 semi-automatic rifle.

Archibald established an armed perimeter in the parking lot outside Crash-N-Burn Tattoo, secured by five men with military-style rifles, tactical shotguns, camouflage vests and walkie-talkies. One of them already had a large tattoo of his own. “We the People,” it said.

“I think it should be a business’s right if they want to close or open,” said Archibald, a 29-year-old online fitness trainer from the Dallas area who lately has made it his personal mission to help Texas business owners challenge government orders to keep their doors shut during the coronavirus pandemic. “What is coming to arrest a person who is opening their business according to their constitutional rights? That’s confrontation.”

https://www.yahoo.com/news/businesses-chafing-under-covid-19-121824076.html

Edited May 14, 2020 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

12 minutes ago, bmags said:

 

good stuff on travel procedure into HK.

If they tried to put GPS trackers on Red Staters, they’d inevitably hack limbs off James Franco “127 Hours” style...

”Many years from now, would you be willin' to trade ALL the days, from this day to that, for one chance, just one chance, to come back here and tell our enemies that they may take our lives, but they'll never take... OUR FREEDOM!!”

Edited May 14, 2020 by caulfield12

[NorthSideSox72]

14 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Hey @NorthSideSox72, remember when I said that the Wisconsin Supreme Court was obviously going to overturn the Governor's Stay at Home order because they're Republicans and you outlined all the legal details for why the governor had that authority, as though the Republicans on the Supreme Court cared about the Rule of Law? Some folks would like to laugh at you.

 

 

Um, yeah, that's not what I said. I said I thought the court would not find for the plaintiffs because the legislature had the ability to override within the specified time window, and therefore had their own mechanism already in place. I just looked and it appears his first emergency order went in on March 12th, which is 63 days ago, past the 60-day limit. So now we are in a different legal scenario.

Also if you read the decision, they focused in a big way on the "rules" enacted by the department of public health, saying that regardless of emergency that continuing long-term rules could not be done via the emergency and instead needed to go through legislative rule-making procedures. I find that argument crap, but that's the route they took. Also interesting, the ruling was 4-3, and one of the more conservative judges sided with Evers. And one of the 4 judges who ruled in majority is being replaced in August thanks to that recent election.

Regardless, the 60 days have passed, and the legislature elected not to allow Evers further leeway OR extend the order, nor did the GOP issue their own plan or orders. Because the Wisconsin GOP is more interested in scoring points than who dies. So now there IS no plan or any rules or restrictions or even guidance at the state level. It's horrible. Fortunately, it looks like the mayors of some of the larger cities like Milwaukee and Madison and some others are electing to keep their own restrictions in place. At least until that becomes a legal issue.