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COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

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16 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

How's your state doing on contact tracing?

Our governor has decided to hire only half the recommended number of them and gave a $250 million no-bid contract to a company that had never done anything like contact tracing and no one else in the state seems to have heard of beforehand. Once again supporting my hypothesis that he actually is a coronavirus.

Slow, grant money just got delivered so there will be a lag to hiring. Though most counties are effectively in phase 4 in terms of numbers they won't be able to graduate until the contact tracers are in place to track at least 60% (now it's at 30%).

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Yet hospitalizations with "influenza like symptoms" declines in Texas:

image.png

 

If hospitalizations begin following the positive test numbers, we will need to pay attention.  However, based upon a similar trend line in Georgia, they won't.

 

 

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14 minutes ago, DisneyTaxDad said:

Yet hospitalizations with "influenza like symptoms" declines in Texas:

image.png

 

If hospitalizations begin following the positive test numbers, we will need to pay attention.  However, based upon a similar trend line in Georgia, they won't.

 

 

Hospitalizations across Texas for COVID are climbing steadily.

 

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1 hour ago, DisneyTaxDad said:

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f

May be difficult to call that a surge.  More hospitalizations on May 5, over a month into the height of the lockdown in Texas.

You are cherry-picking a single day number. Look at the chart. Also, the early May high in general was expected as peak-ish, then it started declining. Now second wave is caused most likely by behavioral changes. That is the problem.

 

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Hospitalization and % positive test rate are both climbing steadily in Texas. In Arizona, ICU beds are almost full.

Reminds me of the "there's no global warming, 1998 was the hottest year" stuff you'd see until we regularly set new temp records every year. That's why we have trendlines of different periods rather than comparing to local maxima or minima.

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Two weeks ago there were concerns in Alabama.  Today, Alabama's current hospitalization rate has declined dramatically despite little change in behavior. Over two weeks ago we recognized Wisconsin had a significant change in behavior yet their hospitalizations have declined.    Florida has been relatively aggressive in their reopening plans and spiked with new hospitalizations on May 21, however, this increase has proven to be inconsistent with the overall data.  It is difficult to correlate a change of behavior with increased cases.  Therefore, it would not be unreasonable to project similar ebbs in flows throughout the country as it begins to reopen.

 

https://alpublichealth.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/6d2771faa9da4a2786a509d82c8cf0f7

 

https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/hosp-data.htm

 

https://tallahasseereports.com/2020/06/07/two-charts-show-positive-trends-for-florida-in-coronavirus-battle/

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2 minutes ago, DisneyTaxDad said:

Two weeks ago there were concerns in Alabama.  Today, Alabama's current hospitalization rate has declined dramatically despite little change in behavior. Over two weeks ago we recognized Wisconsin had a significant change in behavior yet their hospitalizations have declined.    Florida has been relatively aggressive in their reopening plans and spiked with new hospitalizations on May 21, however, this increase has proven to be inconsistent with the overall data.  It is difficult to correlate a change of behavior with increased cases.  Therefore, it would not be unreasonable to project similar ebbs in flows throughout the country as it begins to reopen.

 

https://alpublichealth.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/6d2771faa9da4a2786a509d82c8cf0f7

 

https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/hosp-data.htm

 

https://tallahasseereports.com/2020/06/07/two-charts-show-positive-trends-for-florida-in-coronavirus-battle/

You signed up for  White Sox message board to post about Covid?

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A neighbor is a nurse at Stroger. She said deaths from non Covid things are way up because many delayed getting care because of Covid.

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5 hours ago, DisneyTaxDad said:

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f

May be difficult to call that a surge.  More hospitalizations on May 5, over a month into the height of the lockdown in Texas.

There are currently 1,935 Covid-19 patients in hospitals across the state, topping the previous hospitalization record of 1,888 patients on May 5, according to new data from the Texas Department of State Health Services.

Texas was among the first states to relax its statewide stay-at-home order, allowing it to expire April 30 and some businesses to resume operations May 1. 
 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/texas-reports-a-record-high-number-of-hospitalized-coronavirus-patients-after-state-reopened-early.html

 

It’s much more likely from a scientific standpoint that Covid-19 is currently declining in virulence compared to re-opening not being correlated to jumps in the massive, across-the-board numbers of cases and hospitalizations.   That said, we’re far from out of the woods in the Western Hemisphere due to all the problems in South America, Central America, Mexico and pretty much the entire South, Southwest and West of the United States...

 

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https://www.yahoo.com/gma/satellite-data-suggests-coronavirus-may-hit-china-earlier-100416976--abc-news-topstories.html
 

Here’s where those brilliant Harvard people didn’t take into account how many people arrive at hospitals in China by subway, public taxi, private taxi, bus, scooter, walking, etc.

Another factor is that on 10/10, everyone was already back at work for three days after weeklong October national holidays.  Families tend to go to the hospital during those holiday times, even though the wait times are MUCH longer.

Another factory might have been groups coming into town for the World Military Games held Oct 18-27.

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I had the test yesterday. 

Shit that swab is loooong and it goes up into your nose and then back down towards your toes and stays there for the longest three seconds of your life,

Waiting on the results before being allowed into my oncologist's office. 

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Not sure if this was posted here or not, but Who is now stating it is much less likely for asymptomatic individuals to infect others with COVID. Similar to the revised statements around touching surfaces, you can still get from asymptomatic individuals, but at a much lower clip than those who have symptomatic infections (or whatever the appropriate medical term is). 

 

If this is true, this would be great news as it would indicate things like temperature checks, etc, would likely be much more effective. If you combined that with just a really good tracing program to those who were symptomatic - you'd put a huge dent in this thing right than and there.  There are also lots of updated mortality and morbidity stats that continue to show positive signs in terms of the effectiveness of treatment. In particular, better use of cocktails of drugs, in particular more focus on early prevention of bloodcluts and other treatments to target patients who are undergoing "cytokine" attacks.  

In a sea of constant bad news, I'll take these few things as major positives. That isn't to say everything is perfect, but either way, much better than if the above wasn't the case (i.e., mortality was staying elevated with no effective treatments & asymptomatic spread ran worse).  

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

Note: There is a difference between asyompmatic & presymptomatic.    

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6 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Not sure if this was posted here or not, but Who is now stating it is much less likely for asymptomatic individuals to infect others with COVID. Similar to the revised statements around touching surfaces, you can still get from asymptomatic individuals, but at a much lower clip than those who have symptomatic infections (or whatever the appropriate medical term is). 

 

If this is true, this would be great news as it would indicate things like temperature checks, etc, would likely be much more effective. If you combined that with just a really good tracing program to those who were symptomatic - you'd put a huge dent in this thing right than and there.  There are also lots of updated mortality and morbidity stats that continue to show positive signs in terms of the effectiveness of treatment. In particular, better use of cocktails of drugs, in particular more focus on early prevention of bloodcluts and other treatments to target patients who are undergoing "cytokine" attacks.  

In a sea of constant bad news, I'll take these few things as major positives. That isn't to say everything is perfect, but either way, much better than if the above wasn't the case (i.e., mortality was staying elevated with no effective treatments & asymptomatic spread ran worse).  

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

Note: There is a difference between asyompmatic & presymptomatic.    

They have already contradicted this statement.

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On 6/7/2020 at 5:20 PM, Balta1701 said:

How's your state doing on contact tracing?

Our governor has decided to hire only half the recommended number of them and gave a $250 million no-bid contract to a company that had never done anything like contact tracing and no one else in the state seems to have heard of beforehand. Once again supporting my hypothesis that he actually is a coronavirus.

When govt leaders give unqualified money to unqualified cronies they should summarily be dispensed to one of their private prisons. With no dessert. 

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1 hour ago, Chisoxfn said:

Not sure if this was posted here or not, but Who is now stating it is much less likely for asymptomatic individuals to infect others with COVID. Similar to the revised statements around touching surfaces, you can still get from asymptomatic individuals, but at a much lower clip than those who have symptomatic infections (or whatever the appropriate medical term is). 

 

If this is true, this would be great news as it would indicate things like temperature checks, etc, would likely be much more effective. If you combined that with just a really good tracing program to those who were symptomatic - you'd put a huge dent in this thing right than and there.  There are also lots of updated mortality and morbidity stats that continue to show positive signs in terms of the effectiveness of treatment. In particular, better use of cocktails of drugs, in particular more focus on early prevention of bloodcluts and other treatments to target patients who are undergoing "cytokine" attacks.  

In a sea of constant bad news, I'll take these few things as major positives. That isn't to say everything is perfect, but either way, much better than if the above wasn't the case (i.e., mortality was staying elevated with no effective treatments & asymptomatic spread ran worse).  

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

Note: There is a difference between asyompmatic & presymptomatic.    

 

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

They have already contradicted this statement.

I think there's a trick in this data coming out of what we know about the virus. We know that a huge fraction of the spreading happens via the super-spreading events, where one person is in the right spot, around a lot of people, at just the right time when they're shedding the largest amount of virus, doing the exact right thing (talking, singing, exercising, being tear gassed). 

If there's anything that cuts down the likelihood of a person in a certain group being a super-spreader, then there will be a noticeable drop in how often that group spreads it. If asymptomatic people don't cough, and coughing in the right setting is a factor in those super-spreading events, then asymptomatic people will be less likely to pass it on. 

But the problem with those folks is the chain. Maybe they don't pass it on to 50 people maybe they pass it on to 1, then that person passes it on to 1, then the next person passes it on to 75. Your temperature check failed, you didn't break the chain, and now you hit the "explode cases" button. 

There seems to be a lot of reports about schools not being major centers for spreading and this probably comes from the same setup - asymptomatic people might not pump out the loads necessary to infect 20 people.

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20 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

There are currently 1,935 Covid-19 patients in hospitals across the state, topping the previous hospitalization record of 1,888 patients on May 5, according to new data from the Texas Department of State Health Services.

Texas was among the first states to relax its statewide stay-at-home order, allowing it to expire April 30 and some businesses to resume operations May 1. 
 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/texas-reports-a-record-high-number-of-hospitalized-coronavirus-patients-after-state-reopened-early.html

It is worth noting that because many people who require hospitalization don't get there until day 10-14 of the infection, and many people who require hospitalization stay there for 2-4 weeks, hospitalization rates are a lagging indicator for confirmed cases, and that lags actual infections even more. This increasing hospitalization rate right now is telling us what was happening at the end of May. Case loads have continued rising since then, and infections more faster than recognized cases.

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6 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

It is worth noting that because many people who require hospitalization don't get there until day 10-14 of the infection, and many people who require hospitalization stay there for 2-4 weeks, hospitalization rates are a lagging indicator for confirmed cases, and that lags actual infections even more. This increasing hospitalization rate right now is telling us what was happening at the end of May. Case loads have continued rising since then, and infections more faster than recognized cases.

>100 more today, very large increase - much larger than the previous few days, 2000+ hospitalized statewide.

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Denmark, the first country in Europe to relax its coronavirus lockdown said on Wednesday that the spread of Covid-19 has not accelerated since it eased restrictions and began the second phase of reopening society last month.
"The level of contagion in society is still very low," the Danish health authority said in a report in Wednesday, according to Reuters news agency.

It added that the number of confirmed new infections had continued to fall despite more tests being carried out.

In April Denmark became the first country to reopen its schools and daycare centres and the following month bars and restaurants and shopping centres were allowed to resume business.

"There is no sign yet of noticeable changes in the extent of contagion despite the gradual reopening of society in April and early May," the report said.

In its report, the agency calculated that Denmark's 'R number' for the coronavirus pandemic had risen to 1.0 over the last week from a low of 0.7 estimated on May 18.

But Jens Lundgren, a professor of infectious medicine at Copenhagen's leading hospital Rigshospitalet, said that the rise in the R number, which describes the number of people each infected person on average goes on to infect, was less significant when the level of overall infection in society was so low.

"There's nothing dangerous about this. It is an indication that the infection is very low," he told the Ritzau newswire. "I think you have to stop using concepts like reproduction number for the present. Right now, it's fine to have a reproduction number of 1.0 "

On Monday the Danish government raised the maximum limit on pubic gatherings to 50 from 10 and allowed gyms and swimming pools to reopen.

https://www.thelocal.dk/20200610/denmark-says-easing-lockdown-has-not-increased-infections

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On 6/9/2020 at 9:40 AM, Texsox said:

I had the test yesterday. 

Shit that swab is loooong and it goes up into your nose and then back down towards your toes and stays there for the longest three seconds of your life,

Waiting on the results before being allowed into my oncologist's office. 

Feels like they are tickling your brain. 

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Illinois is now below 3% positive rate. It needs to be here for test and trace to work.

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