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Want to go back to a question that JoseAbreu asked several weeks back, at least I think it was them.

 

What behaviors have people here in Illinois changed since we've moved to Phase 3? I went to Home Depot twice, but that's really been about it.

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1 hour ago, DisneyTaxDad said:

Interesting charts:

Within Sweden, April 2020 was clearly a difficult month, however, within the last 30 years, there have been several that have been far more deadly.  Noticeably, May 2020 returns to a more typical death-rate and by this week they are seeing no change to their average daily death rate.  

Image

 

Here is a chart of Swedish deaths per day:

Image

Deaths remarkably drop despite not having a significant lockdown to lift.

Here is a fun table regarding Germany, often praised for their response:

 

Image

 

Couple observations, firstly, Covid was already in a decline among the population when the lockdowns were implemented.  As restrictions were eased, we see some small blips and a return to standard decline - this is comparable to the small waves we are seeing in some US jurisdictions.

The science regarding Covid seems to be emerging and changing rapidly.  However, at this point, we have a sizable amount of data to interpret.  It is difficult to correlate a change in behavior, such as a "lockdown", with a measurable impact on Covid.    Fortunately, the data is consistent that those outside of our most vulnerable populations, will do remarkably well and there is minimal danger.  The data across the US is consistent, outside of New York, and voluminous that the majority of deaths are related to a LTC facility.  Clearly, these populations need to be protected.

Just as we saw some small blips in Wisconsin, Georgia, and Alabama, we can expect them to fade.  My expectation is that we will see numbers fade in today's "hotspots" of Texas and Arizona and be concentrating on other regions in the coming weeks.  Keep an eye on California, particularly Southern California.  I expect that will be of focus in the coming weeks.

This is some trash information.  R0 is a real thing.

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3 hours ago, Tony said:

So...just curious...how long are you going to keep running your shtick on this subject?

We all know you think this has all been one big joke...but we're coming up on 120K deaths in the US over a 3-4 month period.

What?  Dear God man.  People are dead.  Everywhere.  I know 2 people that died.  My wife is severely immunocompromised.  I got some serious stake in the whole thing just like everybody else.  Thankfully someone in my family hasn’t died alone in a hospital.  
 

The only thing I think is a total and complete joke is people looking at “number of cases” this whole time like that actually meant something and soapboxing from a scientifically useless statistic.  People yelling at people to stay home because they are “literally murdering people”.  Pretending they know.  Pretending they fucking know.   Nobody knows. That’s the joke.  That’s the schtick.  Not being scared, but pretending to know.  Scared is ok, but the real schtick is acting smart.  
 

 But it sure is better to err on the side of extreme caution, that’s how I’ve always felt.  So when the right wing idiots protested at a Michigan capital I was disappointed.  Because what if I’m wrong.  That gathering would really suck.  And when tens of millions of people cram together in every major city to protest for weeks...well you better stop any trace and contain schtick.   Everybody better be scared out of their minds that was screaming “murderers” a few weeks ago.  Because now it’s everywhere, you can’t stop it.  All aboard.
 

Unless of course the people who thought it already was everywhere and had massive asymptomatic rates turn out to be correct.   The people that think the death rate is actually magnitudes less than the 1% claim.  That might explain why the body bags won’t pile up in a week or two.

 

 Here we are in the middle of June and I’m still the only one on here calmly rooting for people not to die like crazy.   And what happens for pointing to positive evidence and positing based on it?  You get screamed at of course.  You get labeled as somebody who wants death.  What a world.  
 

It’s okay to root for the humans.  Join me if you like.   There’s plenty of room over here, cheering on the fact that bodies AREN’T piling up exponentially a month after opening.

I still could easily end up being wrong. But my opinions are still on the table, completely valid until the science says otherwise, just like yours. 

Edited by Jerksticks

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33 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

What?  Dear God man.  People are dead.  Everywhere.  I know 2 people that died.  My wife is severely immunocompromised.  I got some serious stake in the whole thing just like everybody else.  Thankfully someone in my family hasn’t died alone in a hospital.  
 

The only thing I think is a total and complete joke is people looking at “number of cases” this whole time like that actually meant something and soapboxing from a scientifically useless statistic.  People yelling at people to stay home because they are “literally murdering people”.  Pretending they know.  Pretending they fucking know.   Nobody knows. That’s the joke.  That’s the schtick.  Not being scared, but pretending to know.  Scared is ok, but the real schtick is acting smart.  
 

 But it sure is better to err on the side of extreme caution, that’s how I’ve always felt.  So when the right wing idiots protested at a Michigan capital I was disappointed.  Because what if I’m wrong.  That gathering would really suck.  And when tens of millions of people cram together in every major city to protest for weeks...well you better stop any trace and contain schtick.   Everybody better be scared out of their minds that was screaming “murderers” a few weeks ago.  Because now it’s everywhere, you can’t stop it.  All aboard.
 

Unless of course the people who thought it already was everywhere and had massive asymptomatic rates turn out to be correct.   The people that think the death rate is actually magnitudes less than the 1% claim.  That might explain why the body bags won’t pile up in a week or two.

 

 Here we are in the middle of June and I’m still the only one on here calmly rooting for people not to die like crazy.   And what happens for pointing to positive evidence and positing based on it?  You get screamed at of course.  You get labeled as somebody who wants death.  What a world.  
 

It’s okay to root for the humans.  Join me if you like.   There’s plenty of room over here, cheering on the fact that bodies AREN’T piling up exponentially a month after opening.

I still could easily end up being wrong. But my opinions are still on the table, completely valid until the science says otherwise, just like yours. 

Come on, you've spent the last month spewing the same shtick, and I'm clearly not the only one to notice as you've seen from others response to you. 

 

4 hours ago, Jerksticks said:

Where them exponential dead Swedes and dead Americans at?  Next week?

 

 

 

On 6/7/2020 at 12:09 PM, Jerksticks said:

Looks like Philly is set for exponential death increase.  Of all the places, that crowd was so massive and dense there’s only one possible outcome.  Only one possible.  And that’s exponential increase in death.  Since only a couple percent of populations on average have the virus, this is the end game.  There’s no other possible way for it to shake out.  
 

Im in Texas and it’s wide open.  There are people absolutely everywhere.  The only possible outcome is a massive, massive, massive, massive spike in infections and death.  Same with Philly.  
 

 

On 6/3/2020 at 11:43 AM, Jerksticks said:

For sure and for the record I think they should burn everything down- let my people go.

 

But this has absolutely nothing to do with the point.  People screaming at kids for playing because of the virus need to be scared absolutely shitless right now.   Anybody who had hope for trace and contain...have only one possible outlook right now.  Only one.  And that’s mass spread and exponential rising in cases and deaths.  There’s no other possible way to look at it if you’re one of those people.  No spikes.  Exponential spike.   Donezo.   
 

So I guess now we’ll finally see millions of dead Americans.  This sucks. 

 

On 6/3/2020 at 12:01 AM, Jerksticks said:

For sure.  It’s weird on here right now.  2 weeks ago people on here were screaming about the lake of the ozarks kids not social distancing.  Going out for any reason but to get groceries was murder.  Opening states slowly was murder.  Trump murdered 100,000.  We botched the whole virus thing, but the social distancing and curve-flattening hopefully bought us time and opportunity to set up trace and contain.  
 

But now you watch videos and see pics of literally tens of thousands of people crawling all over each other...so if any of the science that was being screamed at people on here for the last few months is true....then the only possible outcome of these riots is exponential death.  It’s the only possible outcome.  
 

How do we set up trace and contain now?

 

On 5/29/2020 at 10:23 AM, Jerksticks said:

Wow that’s terrifying how easy this spreads.  
 

And now with the riots and many states opening, we’re for sure going to see exponential death across the board.  There’s no other possible outcome.  Death will grow exponentially since spreading will do the same. 
 

Only 2 million people have it.  
 

 

 

On 5/26/2020 at 2:21 PM, Jerksticks said:

Well here we go right?  If we don’t see the exponential death in the coming weeks... gonna be surprising right?  
 

Obviously we should expect to see some growth since we simply flattened the curve with social distancing and staying home somewhat and never tried to snuff out the virus.  But if we don’t see EXPONENTIAL death...how can that possibly be explained?

 

Countries around the world opening up, but 90% of the populations are still vulnerable.  We know how infectious it is.  So here we go.  Exponential death.  It must be so.  The narrative this whole time ONLY supports that particular outcome.  So here we go.  Buckle up.  Stay home.  This thing is about to be a brushfire.  

 

On 5/24/2020 at 1:01 PM, Jerksticks said:

It’s almost like our top experts knew this was going to happen so they decided on a flatten the curve policy instead of a quarantine policy.  

 

On 5/21/2020 at 8:48 AM, Jerksticks said:

The plan isn’t to let everyone eventually get the virus?  Sure seems that way.  🤔

 You've made your point...over and over and over again, that you don't agree with the science behind this (I guess? I've never really understood what point you were trying to make) It legit took me 45 seconds to scroll through your old posts and find every post you made in this thread. It's the same thing over and over again. 

We get it. Now try to find a new routine or something else to add. 

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The Venn diagram of people who vociferously celebrate the sacrifices that our military and public safety personnel have made and still make (which is perfectly fine with me), and the people who refuse to make the comparatively minuscule sacrifice of wearing a mask inside public spaces or follow some simple social distancing guidelines (which is moronic, selfish and dangerous), is a fucking concentric circle. Which is it you nincompoops? Should Americans make sacrifices for our national good, or not?

Shit just pisses me off right now because by most accounts, if we could just get 90% of Americans to wear masks and maintain social distance in certain (not even all!) public spaces, along with some protections for vulnerable populations (long term care, some pre-existing conditions), we could probably have like 99% of all businesses back to business now AND have a lot fewer deaths. Alas, apparently for those "patriots", being asked to wear a mask in some public spaces for a few months is an affront to their warped and fact-free interpretations of their Constitutional rights. So instead we are stuck in this uneven, patchwork state of affairs in 50 different modes of operation, playing virus whack-a-mole, with a moribund economy that will take far too long to recover AND a lot more death than is necessary.

For that quarter or so of the population (just wild-ass guessing the ratio here) this applies to - the ones willing to shoot themselves in the foot (slow the economic recovery they so desire) and then fire another shot into the air above a crowd (refusing to wear a mask) 'cause it's their freedoms - fuck you and the horse you rode in on.

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3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I am not sure where your charts are being made up from but in terms of COVID deaths per million

Sweden 481

Finland 59

Norway 45

This, damnit, this.  For crying out loud DisneyTaxDad you CAN'T LOOK AT SIMPLE NUMBERS!!  You have to look at numbers PER CAPITA.  And this in a country with, generally, really healthy people.  Had they applied that approach to Americans and all their co-morbidities we'd likely be pushing 160K dead now or worse.

Their top epidemiologist admitted this week that their plan caused too many deaths, and Sweden hasn't even hit their peak yet:
https://www.euronews.com/2020/06/12/poland-and-sweden-are-the-only-eu-countries-who-have-not-passed-covid-19-peak-ecdc

People really need to stop holding Sweden up as some great success story.

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The above charts are based on deaths/per million.

R0 is absolutely is real thing:

Image

Image

 

Image

 

Countries behaved radically differently, however, there was little difference in the R value.

Interesting observation from a well-known statistician discussing the impact of the "lockdown" in the UK:

Quote

This paper does not prove that the peak in fatal infections in England and Wales preceded lockdown by several days. Indeed the failure to undertake the sampling that could have gathered data to directly measure infections early in the epidemic means that it will never be possible to be certain about timings, given the severe biases in clinical data other than deaths and fatal disease duration. What the results show is that, in the absence of strong assumptions, the currently most reliable data strongly suggest that the decline in infections in England and Wales began before lockdown. Furthermore, such a scenario would be consistent with the infection profile in Sweden, which began its decline.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.02090

 

 Firstly, Sweden absolutely failed in protecting their most vulnerable populations (a mistake that has been made throughout the world, notably in the US). Deaths related to LTC facilities are over 70%.  Sweden frequently concedes this failing; this is the "admission" of their top epidemiologist .

 

Regarding the counts compared to their nordic neighbors, this can be related to their particularly inclusive Covid counting metrics.  Sweden counts any death as a Covid death if there has been a positive test within 30 days.  Literally any death from pneumonia to falling down the stairs would be a counted as a Covid death.  However, their neighbors, such as Finland, are not even counting deaths outside of a hospital setting:  https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/17567-finland-s-coronavirus-deaths-rise-closer-to-100-actual-number-could-be-much-higher.html.

Surely, we should see a noticeable spike in death compared to their nordic neighbors:

Image

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Sweden is actually 4.5% below their baseline, Norway is 9.00% below their baseline, Denmark is 2.7% below their baseline, and Finland is actually 10.6% above their baseline.  Again, this does not demonstrate that Sweden performed well with Covid, they failed many of their citizens with a disease that is very dangerous to a portion of the population.  However, they don't have a noticeable increase in death compared to their neighbors.  It serves as evidence that the "lockdowns" had no correlation to the impact of Covid.  Norway has somewhat admitted they overreacted:

Image

Regarding the nature.com publishing:

image.png

They effectively assume a high growth rate, assume infinite exponential growth, and then assume that attenuation is because of actions without any casual link or empirical measures; there is no null hypothesis.  You could apply the same assumptions to the annual flu and you would see the same drop without any of these actions.  There is no reason to presume correlation or linearity in disease growth without non-pharma intervention.  They are claiming that because the disease did not sustain steady growth forever that the actions their model claims should stop it must have stopped it.

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As my state's case load jumps again and hospitalizations hit another high, unfortunately we're going to watch this death eater be proven wrong. We're in a society where "Going viral" is a thing we say and yet somehow...

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7 hours ago, DisneyTaxDad said:
  • They did not disclosure the fatality rate but it is clearly greater than 1.00%.  This is at least 4x the CDC's current rate.

Oh, I posted this probably 3-4 weeks ago in this thread, but the CDC's rate is definitely underestimating the death rate, epidemiologists have pointed this out, but it's almost certainly a lie being forced to make states reopen even though it's unsafe. 

 

You can actually do this math yourself. If you start with 120,000 dead, and a death rate of 0.25%, then to get that, you need 48 million Americans to have been infected. In other words, that's 20% of the current US population needs to have had this virus already.

Basically none of the antibody tests have found anything that high anywhere except for a couple spots...Lombardy Province in Italy and the hardest hit areas in the Bronx. Those tests may not be precise enough to distinguish 0% infected from 3% infected, but the ones governments are using, that MLB used, that are being published - they can tell 20% from 5%. 

A very good antibody test in Spain suggested 5% incidence. A good one in Indiana suggested even lower incidence. Both of them suggested death rates in the range of 0.5-1%. New York's antibody tests suggest that range. Now maybe we've gotten dramatically better in our medical response, maybe we were killing an awful lot of people with hydroxychloroquine and stopping its use is saving many lives, but unless there's been a dramatic change in the last few weeks, but otherwise, that CDC number is malarkey and they're using it for political reasons.

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8 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

Want to go back to a question that JoseAbreu asked several weeks back, at least I think it was them.

 

 What behaviors have people here in Illinois changed since we've moved to Phase 3? I went to Home Depot twice, but that's really been about it.

Yes it was me. I got a haircut today and have been slightly more comfortable doing things like quickly entering restaurants to pick up food (with a mask. staying apart from others, without directly touching doors, etc), but that's it

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2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Oh, I posted this probably 3-4 weeks ago in this thread, but the CDC's rate is definitely underestimating the death rate, epidemiologists have pointed this out, but it's almost certainly a lie being forced to make states reopen even though it's unsafe. 

 

You can actually do this math yourself. If you start with 120,000 dead, and a death rate of 0.25%, then to get that, you need 48 million Americans to have been infected. In other words, that's 20% of the current US population needs to have had this virus already.

Basically none of the antibody tests have found anything that high anywhere except for a couple spots...Lombardy Province in Italy and the hardest hit areas in the Bronx. Those tests may not be precise enough to distinguish 0% infected from 3% infected, but the ones governments are using, that MLB used, that are being published - they can tell 20% from 5%. 

A very good antibody test in Spain suggested 5% incidence. A good one in Indiana suggested even lower incidence. Both of them suggested death rates in the range of 0.5-1%. New York's antibody tests suggest that range. Now maybe we've gotten dramatically better in our medical response, maybe we were killing an awful lot of people with hydroxychloroquine and stopping its use is saving many lives, but unless there's been a dramatic change in the last few weeks, but otherwise, that CDC number is malarkey and they're using it for political reasons.

I swear people don't possess the ability to do basic stats or math enough to understand when are being fed garbage numbers. It should be really obvious the 0.26% was an absolute fantasy, but people just want to believe,  so they disqualify anything that might shatter their fragile world view.

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10 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

This is statistically proven false as there are strong correlations between several of the responses and slowing the spread. Social Distancing, travel bans, lockdowns, and business closures have shown the strongest correlations with limiting the spread of the disease.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8

I do agree that California is a growing hotspot, but so are the other states - because the social distancing and shutdown measures are ending. 

I'd love for you to acknowledge the hundreds of thousands of protestors marching close together and still breaking social distancing rules has not helped. I just wish people were fair and blamed all factors. For some reason the protestors get a pass. Just be fair and blame all factors please. I'll probably never get to eat a delicious buffet again because of this. And I'd like to blame a whole lot of people not just certain folks.

Edited by greg775
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11 hours ago, Jerksticks said:

It’s okay to root for the humans.  Join me if you like.   There’s plenty of room over here, cheering on the fact that bodies AREN’T piling up exponentially a month after opening.

I still could easily end up being wrong. But my opinions are still on the table, completely valid until the science says otherwise, just like yours. 

Excellent post. I root for the humans with you.

Edited by greg775
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10 hours ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

The Venn diagram of people who vociferously celebrate the sacrifices that our military and public safety personnel have made and still make (which is perfectly fine with me), and the people who refuse to make the comparatively minuscule sacrifice of wearing a mask inside public spaces or follow some simple social distancing guidelines (which is moronic, selfish and dangerous), is a fucking concentric circle. Which is it you nincompoops? Should Americans make sacrifices for our national good, or not?

Shit just pisses me off right now because by most accounts, if we could just get 90% of Americans to wear masks and maintain social distance in certain (not even all!) public spaces, along with some protections for vulnerable populations (long term care, some pre-existing conditions), we could probably have like 99% of all businesses back to business now AND have a lot fewer deaths. Alas, apparently for those "patriots", being asked to wear a mask in some public spaces for a few months is an affront to their warped and fact-free interpretations of their Constitutional rights. So instead we are stuck in this uneven, patchwork state of affairs in 50 different modes of operation, playing virus whack-a-mole, with a moribund economy that will take far too long to recover AND a lot more death than is necessary.

For that quarter or so of the population (just wild-ass guessing the ratio here) this applies to - the ones willing to shoot themselves in the foot (slow the economic recovery they so desire) and then fire another shot into the air above a crowd (refusing to wear a mask) 'cause it's their freedoms - fuck you and the horse you rode in on.

Instead, public health officials across the country are resigning because of all the death threats they receive

 

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6 hours ago, greg775 said:

I'd love for you to acknowledge the hundreds of thousands of protestors marching close together and still breaking social distancing rules has not helped. I just wish people were fair and blamed all factors. For some reason the protestors get a pass. Just be fair and blame all factors please. I'll probably never get to eat a delicious buffet again because of this. And I'd like to blame a whole lot of people not just certain folks.

Show me one post where someone argued the opposite

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2 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Show me one post where someone argued the opposite

*Incoming Sean Hannity link in 3...2.....1....

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9 hours ago, greg775 said:

I'd love for you to acknowledge the hundreds of thousands of protestors marching close together and still breaking social distancing rules has not helped. I just wish people were fair and blamed all factors. For some reason the protestors get a pass. Just be fair and blame all factors please. I'll probably never get to eat a delicious buffet again because of this. And I'd like to blame a whole lot of people not just certain folks.

So for all of the posts directly to you and trying to educate you on your "questions" and general ignorance that you completely ignored, not to mention the garbage conspiracy that you have spread on a regular basis, now you are going to come in here and personally call someone else out? You have some nerve.

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7 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

Show me one post where someone argued the opposite

Balta and southsider don't seem to acknowledge that part of it. Or I've missed it.

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23 hours ago, DisneyTaxDad said:

I'm failing to see how Sweden did so much worse then their neighbors:

 

Image

Image

Perhaps is it alternative reporting methodologies.

The % number of deaths increasing in Sweden in 2020 is going to end up at roughly 25%.

370 per day through early June, compared to a normalized rate of 240-250. 

Whatever bullshit graph you show that skews deliberately misleading statistics is not going to change that.


 

 

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3 hours ago, greg775 said:

Balta and southsider don't seem to acknowledge that part of it. Or I've missed it.

You miss it every time someone mentions it.  @Balta1701 mentioned it last time you brought it up, I believe.

not that it matters, why does their acknowledgment of it make a damn bit of difference?  It doesn't.

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3 hours ago, greg775 said:

Balta and southsider don't seem to acknowledge that part of it. Or I've missed it.

You have never engaged in an honest and open discussion.  You have never acknowledged anything despite all of your pretending to not understand things that just happened to all fall along a single partisan line. If you ever want to drop the dumb greg act there are plenty of people who will engage you in an open and honest exchange.  Until then don't come in here and demand satisfaction on some point while pretending to have been a full intellectual participant in this discussion.  

The day you drop the greg act, and actually act like the real person you actually are people will treat you with a real level of respect again.  Until then, take your demands and stick them with the rest of the trash.

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