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caulfield12

COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

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Nobody is questioning that Sweden reduced mobility, however, they clearly did so at a lower rate than their peers yet attained similar results, including the unfortunate situation with their LTC facilities; clearly a failing.

I've already shared how their all cause deaths compare to their nordic neighbors; remarkably it is similar.

Interesting findings regarding transmission among children:  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.20.20108126v1

They find .44 infection in children compared to adults:

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This is conservative as they use Odds Ratios, not this adjusted for contact type from initial studies.  Potential criticisms include potential lack of testing on non-syptomatic children causing missing cases.  Fortunately, we have some new evidence there:

 Israel:

https://journals.lww.com/pidj/Abstract/9000/The_Role_of_Children_in_the_Dynamics_of_Intra.96128.aspx

New York:

https://academic.oup.com/jpids/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jpids/piaa070/5849922

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These two studies both tested all household contacts, regardless of symptoms and found children are roughly 50% less likely to become infected as adults.  But wait, what about false negative because children are difficult to swab:

In the Netherlands, they performed a similar study using serology. 

 

https://ntvg.nl/artikelen/de-rol-van-kinderen-de-transmissie-van-sars-cov-2/volledig

Shockingly, they found similar findings, children are 50% as likely to get infected as adults and teens in the household.

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Same study looked at infection pairs from a national database to see who was infecting who.  They found almost all transmission was adult to adult, minimal child to adult or child to child transmission:

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We are consistently finding children are less easily infected than adults, and when they are transmission is reduced.  Children do not appear to be super-spreaders.

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I've posted this before, so forgive me, but:

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Sweden counts any death as a Covid death if there has been a positive test within 30 days.  Literally any death from pneumonia to falling down the stairs would be a counted as a Covid death.  However, their neighbors, such as Finland, are not even counting deaths outside of a hospital setting:  https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/17567-finland-s-coronavirus-deaths-rise-closer-to-100-actual-number-could-be-much-higher.html.

Sweden is actually 4.5% below their baseline in total deaths, Norway is 9.00% below their baseline, Denmark is 2.7% below their baseline, and Finland is actually 10.6% above their baseline.

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39 minutes ago, DisneyTaxDad said:

I've posted this before, so forgive me, but:

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Sweden counts any death as a Covid death if there has been a positive test within 30 days.  Literally any death from pneumonia to falling down the stairs would be a counted as a Covid death.  However, their neighbors, such as Finland, are not even counting deaths outside of a hospital setting:  https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/17567-finland-s-coronavirus-deaths-rise-closer-to-100-actual-number-could-be-much-higher.html.

Sweden is actually 4.5% below their baseline in total deaths, Norway is 9.00% below their baseline, Denmark is 2.7% below their baseline, and Finland is actually 10.6% above their baseline.

I truly don't know where you get your charts, but https://www.mpg.de/14915504/0605-defo-137749-international-death-counts-show-peaks-of-the-pandemic

In no way could this find that Sweden is below trend:

See the actual excess death chart from that research:

Also when the NYT looked at excess deaths and compared them to reported covid deaths, it found Sweden had an additional 800 deaths in the first two months.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

Finland had 100. Finland has half the people...so that doesn't track.

Lastly EUROMOMO tracking excess mortality across european nations. These track the z-scores: sweden vs. finland. 

 

Screen Shot 2020-06-17 at 12.08.02 PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-06-17 at 12.12.30 PM.png

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When reopening started my County had an average of under 10 cases per day. Until last week we never had more than 50.

145 in the last 24 hours. 

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We're not seeing spikes or increases in cities that had massive protests. It wasn't 100% of course, but a lot of people at these protests have been wearing masks. Could be some indication that outdoors + masks really knocks down transmission potential if it continues to hold up.

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31 minutes ago, DisneyTaxDad said:

All sources included:

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This chart seems to show Sweden who was consistently 3rd in deaths per million, now jumping to a tie for first. 

And none of this matters at all. The US has been terrible at it. To suggest that by doing less the US would have been better off is absurd. 

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57 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

We're not seeing spikes or increases in cities that had massive protests. It wasn't 100% of course, but a lot of people at these protests have been wearing masks. Could be some indication that outdoors + masks really knocks down transmission potential if it continues to hold up.

Masks always seem to be key, yet so many just refuse to wear them. If everyone did, we would be far better off right now. 

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The big rally on Saturday is so crazy, and like gassing peaceful protesters for a photo op, this is just to massage an ego. If one person gets sick because of the rally, all the enablers should be held responsible.  

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1 hour ago, bmags said:

I truly don't know where you get your charts

 

I looked into it, one of his from the last page came from some far right blog. The blogger did cite correct data, but used it in an intentionally misleading way to make it seem like Sweden is doing a much better job than in reality. It’s probably safe to assume that the rest of the graphs and charts being shared have been similarly arranged

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45 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

The big rally on Saturday is so crazy, and like gassing peaceful protesters for a photo op, this is just to massage an ego. If one person gets sick because of the rally, all the enablers should be held responsible.  

And depending on Trump's mood that day, it could get really ugly regarding masks. I think most of us can see Trump grabbing the mike and cracking some jokes about masks being for wimps or something. 

He shouldn't do that. Unfortunately this like EVERYTHING nowadays is political. No matter what some are saying about "most of the people" during the "peaceful" nightly marches and riots wore masks, that simply is very very debatable as far as being true. Cmon. There were and still are nightly protests and big time rallies and these  should be called out for being huge spreaders of covid-19. Let's face it, Trump certainly is holding this and all rallies as a bit of a frick-you to the governors who turned the other way and NEVER. blasted the protestors for huge gatherings. It's a "get-even' by Trump for sure.

What a world we live in, folks.

ps. I saw this story AFTER my take. yes it's ALL political and Trump is getting the last laugh on the other side blasting him for holding rallies when the protestors break covid rules NIGHTLY.

from yahoo

On Tuesday’s episode of The View, Meghan McCain called out what she sees to be a double standard when it comes to two current hot-button issues: While President Donald Trump has been criticized for holding an upcoming rally in the midst of a pandemic, says McCain, those participating in nationwide protests haven’t been subject to the same criticism.

“There’s a lot of hypocrisy to go around,” said McCain, “and this is one of the issues that I’m really enraged about.”

While McCain made it clear that she thinks all large public gatherings are dangerous during this time, she made the point that Trump rally-goers are being treated differently than the protestors.

“Is COVID a pandemic that we all have to stay sheltering in place and inside, or is it not?” she asked. “Or is it only a pandemic if you are a conservative and you’re a Trump supporter and then you have to stay inside, and you’re a hypocrite if you sign this waiver and you go into his rally?”

The debate between the co-hosts grew testy, with Joy Behar sparring with McCain over Trump’s role in the handling of the pandemic. 

“If he hadn’t been so incompetent, we all probably would be out of this by now,” Behar said. McCain replied, saying, “This is an American problem, this is a problem that is bipartisan, this is not just a Trump administration problem.”

And lest you think McCain was sticking up for Trump, she made it clear she was only bringing to light the unbalanced coverage, in her eyes. “I’m no Trump fan, everybody knows that,” she said. “But you make me defend him when you say things like ‘he wants people to die’, ‘he doesn’t care about public health.’”

HOW CAN ANYBODY NOT ENDORSE MCCAIN's POSITION ON THIS? It is so hypocritical folks? You can't say the riots/protests are more important than other things, you just can't during COVID.

Edited by greg775
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26 minutes ago, greg775 said:

And depending on Trump's mood that day, it could get really ugly regarding masks. I think most of us can see Trump grabbing the mike and cracking some jokes about masks being for wimps or something. 

He shouldn't do that. Unfortunately this like EVERYTHING nowadays is political. No matter what some are saying about "most of the people" during the "peaceful" nightly marches and riots wore masks, that simply is very very debatable as far as being true. Cmon. There were and still are nightly protests and big time rallies and these  should be called out for being huge spreaders of covid-19. Let's face it, Trump certainly is holding this and all rallies as a bit of a frick-you to the governors who turned the other way and NEVER. blasted the protestors for huge gatherings. It's a "get-even' by Trump for sure.

What a world we live in, folks.

ps. I saw this story AFTER my take. yes it's ALL political and Trump is getting the last laugh on the other side blasting him for holding rallies when the protestors break covid rules NIGHTLY.

from yahoo

On Tuesday’s episode of The View, Meghan McCain called out what she sees to be a double standard when it comes to two current hot-button issues: While President Donald Trump has been criticized for holding an upcoming rally in the midst of a pandemic, says McCain, those participating in nationwide protests haven’t been subject to the same criticism.

“There’s a lot of hypocrisy to go around,” said McCain, “and this is one of the issues that I’m really enraged about.”

While McCain made it clear that she thinks all large public gatherings are dangerous during this time, she made the point that Trump rally-goers are being treated differently than the protestors.

“Is COVID a pandemic that we all have to stay sheltering in place and inside, or is it not?” she asked. “Or is it only a pandemic if you are a conservative and you’re a Trump supporter and then you have to stay inside, and you’re a hypocrite if you sign this waiver and you go into his rally?”

The debate between the co-hosts grew testy, with Joy Behar sparring with McCain over Trump’s role in the handling of the pandemic. 

“If he hadn’t been so incompetent, we all probably would be out of this by now,” Behar said. McCain replied, saying, “This is an American problem, this is a problem that is bipartisan, this is not just a Trump administration problem.”

And lest you think McCain was sticking up for Trump, she made it clear she was only bringing to light the unbalanced coverage, in her eyes. “I’m no Trump fan, everybody knows that,” she said. “But you make me defend him when you say things like ‘he wants people to die’, ‘he doesn’t care about public health.’”

HOW CAN ANYBODY NOT ENDORSE MCCAIN's POSITION ON THIS? It is so hypocritical folks? You can't say the riots/protests are more important than other things, you just can't during COVID.

Then why choose Oklahoma, a state with a GOP governor where he has a very negligible chance of losing in November?

Arizona and Florida also have GOP governors but are states that are in serious  jeopardy 4+ months out...where they have held rallies and/or major fundraisers recently.  Pence was just in Iowa, another state carried by 9 points.

 

It has a bit more to do with some other factors, like Juneteenth and especially the 1920’s Greenwood/Black Wall Street riots/massacre.  At one point, doing a speech on race relations at that moment (when it was scheduled) made sense to about half the members of the administration.  The other half was bitterly opposed and thought it would turn into an unmitigated PR disaster, hence the pre-emptive change in date.

Edited by caulfield12

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1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

Masks always seem to be key, yet so many just refuse to wear them. If everyone did, we would be far better off right now. 

 

 

 

some more stuff:

Orlando airport tested around 500 employees, 260 came back positive.

 

 

and, @greg775

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1 hour ago, greg775 said:

He shouldn't do that. Unfortunately this like EVERYTHING nowadays is political. No matter what some are saying about "most of the people" during the "peaceful" nightly marches and riots wore masks, that simply is very very debatable as far as being true. Cmon. There were and still are nightly protests and big time rallies and these  should be called out for being huge spreaders of covid-19.

So far, many of the cities that had major rallies in the North - Chicago, Philadelphia, New York, Washington DC have avoided major spikes in case numbers, and they should be showing up right now if they were going to happen.

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2 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

We're not seeing spikes or increases in cities that had massive protests. It wasn't 100% of course, but a lot of people at these protests have been wearing masks. Could be some indication that outdoors + masks really knocks down transmission potential if it continues to hold up.

Im wary to get too excited but 30 k tests today and only 560 new cases. 1.8% positive

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51 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Then why choose Oklahoma, a state with a GOP governor where he has a very negligible chance of losing in November?

Arizona and Florida also have GOP governors but are states that are in serious  jeopardy 4+ months out...where they have held rallies and/or major fundraisers recently.  Pence was just in Iowa, another state carried by 9 points.

 

It has a bit more to do with some other factors, like Juneteenth and especially the 1920’s Greenwood/Black Wall Street riots/massacre.  At one point, doing a speech on race relations at that moment (when it was scheduled) made sense to about half the members of the administration.  The other half was bitterly opposed and thought it would turn into an unmitigated PR disaster, hence the pre-emptive change in date.

Maybe I'm just dense but I have never heard of Juneteenth until this year. Never. I think this talk is just more partisan politics as always. Who the heck ever talked of Juneteenth before this political season of rallies? Pardon me if it's very common; I swear on a stack of Bibles I'd never heard of it before a week or two ago. Now it's everything.

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1 minute ago, greg775 said:

Maybe I'm just dense but I have never heard of Juneteenth until this year. Never. I think this talk is just more partisan politics as always. Who the heck ever talked of Juneteenth before this political season of rallies? Pardon me if it's very common; I swear on a stack of Bibles I'd never heard of it before a week or two ago. Now it's everything.

Black people.

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13 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So far, many of the cities that had major rallies in the North - Chicago, Philadelphia, New York, Washington DC have avoided major spikes in case numbers, and they should be showing up right now if they were going to happen.

my biggest concern is that because it skewed so young many may be the prototype for asymptomatic carriers. If they haven't get tested they wouldn't show up but people they infect may appear in the next 15 days.

That's why I was glad to see a big testing spike today as it had started to decline and my guess is that would be due to just population wanting the test going down.

https://app.powerbigov.us/view?r=eyJrIjoiYjUwNjEwN2QtYmJkYS00MTZmLTg4YjMtZGRkMzEzMmFmYjg4IiwidCI6IjcwMzZjZGE5LTA2MmQtNDE1MS04MTQ0LTk3ZGRjNTZlNzAyNyJ9

Also I got my answer. The previous day always shows up as 1 in the dashboard. However, Monday shows only 34 cases in Chicago, the only mondays I found that was lower than the sunday reports.

So it's not just illinois not seeing a hot spot, Chicago is seeing massive decline now a full 2 weeks post protests. That is probably the bigger thing to hang its hats on and I know NYC is the same.

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44 minutes ago, greg775 said:

Maybe I'm just dense but I have never heard of Juneteenth until this year. Never. I think this talk is just more partisan politics as always. Who the heck ever talked of Juneteenth before this political season of rallies? Pardon me if it's very common; I swear on a stack of Bibles I'd never heard of it before a week or two ago. Now it's everything.

This is one of the least surprising posts you have ever made. 

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More and more, it seems a consensus is building around the idea that for any given region once it has bent the curve down and gotten well below health care capacity limits, we would really just need:

  • Masks in public spaces - indoors always, outdoors if unable to maintain distance
  • Special treatment of and precautions in crammed in facilities, long-term care, and for specifically vulnerable populations
  • Avoiding super-large crowd events especially if they involve a lot of vocalization or heavy breathing (concerts, pro sports, etc.)
  • Washing your hands

We could literally open up nearly everything else, if only we had a population that was willing to do the masking thing reliably (like 90% or better I guess). But no... there's that quarter or so of the population that have been conned into thinking wearing masks is some kind of conspiracy or made up thing. Other countries don't have that garbage (or at least have a lot less of it). So we in the US are stuck with these uneven and inconsistent lockdowns instead, damaging the economy even further and killing more people.

Again... if you are in that quarter, GFY.

 

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1 hour ago, greg775 said:

Maybe I'm just dense but I have never heard of Juneteenth until this year. Never. I think this talk is just more partisan politics as always. Who the heck ever talked of Juneteenth before this political season of rallies? Pardon me if it's very common; I swear on a stack of Bibles I'd never heard of it before a week or two ago. Now it's everything.

You came up with the $1 million reparations plan, but no Juneteenth?  Kwanzaa sound familiar? 

I’m not sure saying “now it’s everything” makes much sense when it has been there all along in Wyandotte County, Wichita and pockets of the KU, KSU and WSU campuses.
 

What’s shocking to me is that you weren’t paying attention to Fox News here...

https://www.foxnews.com/us/what-is-juneteenth-the-history-behind-the-oldest-commemoration-of-the-abolishment-of-slavery-in-the-us

 

 

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1 hour ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

More and more, it seems a consensus is building around the idea that for any given region once it has bent the curve down and gotten well below health care capacity limits, we would really just need:

  • Masks in public spaces - indoors always, outdoors if unable to maintain distance
  • Special treatment of and precautions in crammed in facilities, long-term care, and for specifically vulnerable populations
  • Avoiding super-large crowd events especially if they involve a lot of vocalization or heavy breathing (concerts, pro sports, etc.)
  • Washing your hands

We could literally open up nearly everything else, if only we had a population that was willing to do the masking thing reliably (like 90% or better I guess). But no... there's that quarter or so of the population that have been conned into thinking wearing masks is some kind of conspiracy or made up thing. Other countries don't have that garbage (or at least have a lot less of it). So we in the US are stuck with these uneven and inconsistent lockdowns instead, damaging the economy even further and killing more people.

Again... if you are in that quarter, GFY.

 

I’m still very concerned about bars, night clubs and churches even with masks. The drinking and dancing makes night clubs seem impossible especially on tracing.

Id prefer they stick with the outdoor focus through sept.

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