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COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

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15 minutes ago, almagest said:

How is "bad nursing homes get money for COVID patients" or "governors of some states made indefensible decisions to send COVID positive people to nursing homes" a republican plant to discredit democrats? I've seen some amazing mental gymnastics in defense of "republican bad democrat good" tribalism but this one is something else.

Who do you think fed you the idea that tons of homes are taking COVID patients for the money, and that is why this is spreading in homes?

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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
Sweden, by the way, not exactly bending the curve by any measure.

 

In the very beginning here in Wuhan, the health care system was totally overrun, much like in NYC.

You can blame Cuomo and De Blasio, but the storyline from the White House is that everything was contained because of the supposed shutdown/“sort of ban” of travel from China and lack of breakouts across the West Coast other than Seattle area nursing homes.

The reality is there wasn’t the same warning bell coming from any Federal agency about European travel, the CDC, or even the WHO.
 

In the initial phases, there was also no Javits Center, no USS Comfort, no requisitioning or commandeering of hotels and sports arenas/community centers and unfinished housing projects, as well as the ability to construct two completely brand new facilities in under two weeks.

Once the true severity of the crisis was identified, NY as a state did a very good job...De Blasio at best would be a C-.

What other options were there available besides skilled nursing facilities for demand outstripping supply of hospital beds?  Piling people up in the hallways or turning them away to go back out into the public and eventually home to infect their families/neighborhoods/communities?


It’s the job of the Federal government to analyze and interdict international threats before they reach the shores of the US, as well as international multilateral organizations like the WHO.  To blame NY and NJ for what happened there...well, that’s why they dumped the Articles of Confederation and went back in the direction of Alexander Hamilton’s vision for the new nation. 

 


Cue Bobby Boucher’s mom Kathy Bates in The Waterboy,  Btw, IHME predicted deaths now over 180,000 without nationwide masking, 3X the revised predictions after 8-10 weeks of shutdowns across most of the country.
 

 

Edited by caulfield12

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2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Who do you think fed you the idea that tons of homes are taking COVID patients for the money, and that is why this is spreading in homes?

You agreed sending sick people to bad nursing homes with a financial incentive was a bad idea so I don't even understand what you're trying to argue here. It's also a non-partisan fact that some governors mandated sick people be sent to nursing homes and that had negative effects until they stopped doing it. How is ANY of this republican sabotage? Democrats make terrible decisions too for heaven's sake.

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48 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

This is not at all what South Korea, Thailand, Germany, Australia or New Zealand did.

Even Vietnam, HK and Taiwan provided far more freedoms than here in mainland China.

This is almost like jerksticks’ “well, we don’t or can’t be 100% sure about anything so let’s just throw our hands up and trudge right through the unknown” line of thinking.   It doesn’t have to be one extreme or the other...except for the fact that the lack of a coordinated, consensus-driven Federal response has put us in this position.  Even the UK was able to course correct and largely overcome initial missteps.  Why would it be surprising that the US and Brazil have the two most similar political leaders as well as approaches to science (or lack thereof) and coronavirus debacles on their hands?
 

 

Brazil's president Jair Bolsonaro has been ordered by a federal judge in Brasilia to wear a face mask in public or face a fine. 

Federal Judge Renato Borelli issued a decision Monday, saying Bolsonaro must wear a mask when circulating in public in Brasilia. The judge's order said failure to do so could potentially lead to a fine of up around $386 per day.

The decision extends to all government employees in the Federal District, where the capital Brasilia is located.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/23/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-coronavirus-mask-intl/index.html

This has never been one of my thoughts on here.  Ever.  Please write a retraction.  
 

I HAVE steadily maintained the position that we have no idea what the asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic rates are.  Without knowing those numbers, anybody on here telling people about death rates, cases and “today’s number of cases” is not using their brain.  Go ahead and use that info to speculate all you want, I’m game for that and will be right there in the trenches with you, but don’t you dare tell me you know what’s going on with COVID based on flimsy flim-flam.


For example, the other day some guy on here was telling people 1 out of every 200 baseball players statistically would die if they all caught Covid, because a chart showed a .5% death rate in 20-69 year olds.   People are shouting that information like it’s fact without even using their brains to say “wait a second, are there some pretty obvious ways this chart is missing some seriously huge data points?”

 


 

 

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43 minutes ago, almagest said:

You agreed sending sick people to bad nursing homes with a financial incentive was a bad idea so I don't even understand what you're trying to argue here. It's also a non-partisan fact that some governors mandated sick people be sent to nursing homes and that had negative effects until they stopped doing it. How is ANY of this republican sabotage? Democrats make terrible decisions too for heaven's sake.

None of that excuses the misinformation here.

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1 minute ago, Jerksticks said:

This has never been one of my thoughts on here.  Ever.  Please write a retraction.  
 

I HAVE steadily maintained the position that we have no idea what the asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic rates are.  Without knowing those numbers, anybody on here telling people about death rates, cases and “today’s number of cases” is not using their brain.  Go ahead and use that info to speculate all you want, I’m game for that and will be right there in the trenches with you, but don’t you dare tell me you know what’s going on with COVID based on flimsy flim-flam.


For example, the other day some guy on here was telling people 1 out of every 200 baseball players statistically would die if they all caught Covid, because a chart showed a .5% death rate in 20-69 year olds.   People are shouting that information like it’s fact without even using their brains to say “wait a second, are there some pretty obvious ways this chart is missing some seriously huge data points?”

 


 

 

Okay, let’s try this one.

33-34,000 additional Americans will lose their lives between now and October 1st according to IHME.

With 95% masking, we would be at 146,000 deaths.

As it stands, we’re heading for over 180,000.

As far as retractions go, I’m not sure why I’m being held to a higher standard than the President of the United States.  But I would love to get some clarification on why a “highly-offensive” weeks ago is now suddenly acceptable again.

 

White House counselor Kellyanne Conway reacted to President Donald Trump’s use of “kung flu” first by explaining that Trump used the phrase to highlight the origins of the coronavirus in China — and then by suggesting she disagreed with him.

Weeks ago, Conway blasted the phrase as "highly offensive." But on Wednesday, she initially reacted to a reporter's question about the president's repeated use of "kung flu" by criticizing the Chinese government.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/24/kellyanne-conway-trump-kung-flu-coronavirus-337682

 

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7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

None of that excuses the misinformation here.

What misinformation?

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The claim that we have "no idea" what infection rates are is flat out wrong.

Edited by StrangeSox

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1 minute ago, StrangeSox said:

The claim that we have "no idea" is flat out wrong.

How does one even clinically define “mildly symptomatic”?

One thing we are seeing here in China is the definite likelihood that an asymptomatic positive means, at best, 2-3 months of immunity before being susceptible to contracting it a second time.  Which means coming up with any type of “permanent” or even long/er lasting vaccine is increasingly a daunting task for epidemiologists around the world.

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17 minutes ago, almagest said:

You posted a bunch of things saying there are "half-truths".

 

https://www.medpagetoday.com/publichealthpolicy/generalprofessionalissues/87229

This article probably gets a bit closer to the “profiting off Covid cases” argument.
 

At any rate, “half truths” is a pretty accurate picture of the reality in this case.

Nevertheless, the lack of consistent guidelines (or their being obscured by bureaucracy or political infighting) and the overall trustworthiness of Federal agencies being called into question has led to this quagmire.

If you were the Governor of NY, faced with that same exact situation, even today in late June it’s not easy to decide what clearly should have been done (that was realistic or even remotely feasible in that exact moment in time.)

Whereas the Federal Government knew what was coming since January 8th, and the national intelligence/defense community, since late November.

If that information was made readily accessible to governors before early March, they would have been able to formulate a much more proactive, forward-facing approach.

Edited by caulfield12

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12 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Which is a pretty accurate picture of the reality in this case.

Nevertheless, the lack of consistent guidelines (or their being obscured by bureaucracy or political infighting) and the overall trustworthiness of Federal agencies being called into question has led to this quagmire.

If you were the Governor of NY, faced with that same exact situation, even today in late June it’s not easy to decide what clearly should have been done (that was realistic or even remotely feasible in that exact moment in time.)

Whereas the Federal Government knew what was coming since January 8th, the national intelligence, since late November.

If that information was made readily accessible to governors before early March, they would have been able to formulate a much more proactive, forward-facing approach.

The guidance from the WHO at that time and all of the national media outlets were reporting that this wasn't going to be an issue.

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4 minutes ago, almagest said:

The guidance from the WHO at that time and all of the national media outlets were reporting that this wasn't going to be an issue.

Sure and the President led the chorus of Chinese praise so he could get his trade deal.

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Cuomo handled this poorly at the start. Very poorly.

Federal Dems are doing half measures at best.

But the GOP governors and federal officials are blowing them away in terms of incompetence and malice at every turn.

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10 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Sure and the President led the chorus of Chinese praise so he could get his trade deal.

I'm also not a Trump supporter.

Edited by almagest

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1 hour ago, almagest said:

I'm also not a Trump supporter.

Well, they did that not to create a panic in the days before roughly five million people were going to leave the city for Chinese New Year’s.

In reality, covering it up and then the WHO not pushing any harder were terrible mistakes that have led to hundreds of thousands of deaths.

That said, by the week of January 19th, the full severity was becoming readily apparent and they took decisive action by locking down 70 million people (the equivalent of California) with less than ten hours’ notice the night of January 22nd/morning of the 23rd.

The other fatal mistake was allowing a Spring Festival Gala banquet to go on, with over 12,000 dishes shared with roughly 40,000 people.  That was the equivalent of (attempting to hold) an indoors rally without masks for 19-20,000 people Saturday night, or 3,000 teenagers and twenty-somethings in an enclosed church on Tuesday night.  To top it off, both Tulsa and Phoenix were experiencing explosive Covid case growth at that time.  
 

I do solemly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.

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I think NYC, Detroit, Chicago areas got hit harder than any of tests and numbers can tell.  While being cautious, still very very dense areas. While anti-bodies may be short and booster vaccine shots may be needed, the hope is that the second time it hits you, your body has some reaction that makes it less lethal.

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