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COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

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On 7/10/2020 at 8:25 AM, StrangeSox said:

Positive test ratio lets you know if you're testing enough, but it doesn't tell you overall what shape you're in.

What are we doing to stop the growth of new cases? Have we implemented robust contact tracing? How do we make sure that 500 daily cases doesn't turn into 1000 daily cases (oops) doesn't turn into 5k+ daily cases?

And how much of that is largely outside of Illinois' control thanks to policy failures in other states and especially at the federal level?

Oh and by the way, we're running out of PPE again. How, exactly, are we going to safely staff schools with no PPE available?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/08/health/coronavirus-masks-ppe-doc.html

We've wasted the last several months. Complete and utter failure by our federal government. And now they're cutting back federal testing sites in areas that need it most. Shameful.

Positive test ratio does tell you what type of shape you're in. If 20% of a specific geographic area are testing positive (as some parts of the South are) vs. 2-4% (as Illinois has for the past few weeks), that is indicative of the spread (or lack of) of the virus. Number of cases is often reported by the media and while the numbers show increases (from 20K to now over 60K) that grab headlines, that number wouldn't be as meaningful if the % of positive cases was much lower than where it is in several parts of the country.

Most states have not not implemented robust contact tracing and are still lacking enough to keep up with the spread and hired enough to keep up with the early demand that resulted from the initial shelters in place. As recently as a few weeks back, Illinois was still behind, but most of the country was (and is). The CDC has issues guidelines around this prior to re-opening, and many states are still behind and/or catching up now to the demands from re-opening that were not considered. Nationwide, there needs to be at least 200K+. In order to keep up with the spread, there needs to be high % of new cases traced within 24 hours. Some of that is due to privacy concerns, etc. around the technology. NY has more contact tracing, but in many cases, aren't able to get cooperation from people. Now that the disease is spreading in many area's though, while contact tracing can be helpful for new(er) outbreaks, it's not enough to keep up with the spread.

The Defense Production Act should be more widely used for more PPE . The increased cases and re-opening of the country are both conflicting and increasing the shortages that we're seeing in specific parts of the country right now. We continue to be at the mercy of other countries for our supplies without invoking more domestic production. I have no disagreement.

The federal government has allowed the states to deal with their own situations (outside of the CARES act). More money will be coming if politics can be removed from the situation, but unfortunately that ship sailed a long time ago. 

I appreciate your post. Thoughtful and legitimate criticism.

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On 7/10/2020 at 9:33 AM, BrianAnderson said:

The problem with Trump is he's the boy who cried wolf. He's done and said so many ridiculous things that he's lost all credibility & trust. And once that's gone it's hard to "lead" effectively. If we did this like a blind fantasy baseball test -- Player A did this. Player B did this. Who do you like? I have a sneaking suspicion that more people would be actually okay with the moves that Trump has made. The problem is he's made everything around him (by choice) a traveling circus. 

I remain in the camp that there are too many people in the US for a single president to actually make a difference - presidents are more the PR for country. Just guiding the ship gently and as a calming driving force, hopefully moving it forward. We could use that in time of a pandemic more than ever. 

The country is very divided. Trump didn't start that, but has definitely added to that. He doesn't have much credibility despite being the President largely because he doesn't tell the truth and is ignorant on government/policy. It's unfortunate that everything has to be so political these days and facts can be disputed. Regardless of policy, which can't be ignored in a pandemic, he is not the leader the country needs. Unfortunately, given our divide, I'm not sure who that would be.

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On 7/9/2020 at 10:48 PM, caulfield12 said:

It will likely be an all-out battle between Pence, Nikki Haley, Cruz, Rubio, Paul Ryan and those governors like Hogan, Baker and DeWine...maybe Kasich will jump back into the fray as well.

Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Niki Haley and Larry Hogan would be the most logical ones to watch, but others will throw themselves in for 2024. Long way away.

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2 hours ago, spiderman said:

Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Niki Haley and Larry Hogan would be the most logical ones to watch, but others will throw themselves in for 2024. Long way away.

The Covid lunacy has doomed Paul to nothing more than a niche candidacy like his father, along with his unruly mop of hair and getting tackled by a neighbor.

 

Teacher says school reopenings would be 'epidemiological nightmare' as thousands sign remote learning petition

More than 25,000 teachers, students and parents want to continue distance learning this fall until U.S. coronavirus cases — 3 million and counting — subside for 14 days in their respective counties, according to a new petition that claims in-person school would lead to a health care disaster.

The Change.org proposal was written by Harley Litzelman, a history and economics teacher at Skyline High School in Oakland. Alameda County, where Oakland is located, has more than 7,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, according to Friday data. According to Litzelman, resuming in-person classes would “glorify the endless sacrifice of American teaching,” as he explained in a June 30 article on the website Medium calling for support of the petition, which uses the hashtag #14daysnonewcases.

“We refuse to return to campus this fall until our counties report no new cases of COVID-19 for at least 14 consecutive days,” reads the petition. “Let it be known that this is not simply a petition, but a statement of intent, a pledge not to return until it is safe.”

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/teacher-school-reopenings-epidemiological-nightmare-thousands-sign-remote-learning-petition-215709113.html

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2 hours ago, spiderman said:

Positive test ratio does tell you what type of shape you're in. If 20% of a specific geographic area are testing positive (as some parts of the South are) vs. 2-4% (as Illinois has for the past few weeks), that is indicative of the spread (or lack of) of the virus. Number of cases is often reported by the media and while the numbers show increases (from 20K to now over 60K) that grab headlines, that number wouldn't be as meaningful if the % of positive cases was much lower than where it is in several parts of the country.

Most states have not not implemented robust contact tracing and are still lacking enough to keep up with the spread and hired enough to keep up with the early demand that resulted from the initial shelters in place. As recently as a few weeks back, Illinois was still behind, but most of the country was (and is). The CDC has issues guidelines around this prior to re-opening, and many states are still behind and/or catching up now to the demands from re-opening that were not considered. Nationwide, there needs to be at least 200K+. In order to keep up with the spread, there needs to be high % of new cases traced within 24 hours. Some of that is due to privacy concerns, etc. around the technology. NY has more contact tracing, but in many cases, aren't able to get cooperation from people. Now that the disease is spreading in many area's though, while contact tracing can be helpful for new(er) outbreaks, it's not enough to keep up with the spread.

The Defense Production Act should be more widely used for more PPE . The increased cases and re-opening of the country are both conflicting and increasing the shortages that we're seeing in specific parts of the country right now. We continue to be at the mercy of other countries for our supplies without invoking more domestic production. I have no disagreement.

The federal government has allowed the states to deal with their own situations (outside of the CARES act). More money will be coming if politics can be removed from the situation, but unfortunately that ship sailed a long time ago. 

I appreciate your post. Thoughtful and legitimate criticism.

Your discussion of positive test rate is flat out wrong. It tells you if your testing capacity is overwhelmed or not. It doesn't tell you where you're likely heading. We could be testing 2M per day with super low positive test rate, but if we're not tracing and isolating it's pretty meaningless. If you're sitting at 1000k cases per day, you're primed to lose control very quickly. Our positive rate is trending back up, anyway.

 

The federal government leaving states to fend for themselves is a massive failure of the federal government and the White House specifically as the feds have a lot of tools, including public persuasion, that states don't. Especially monetary/budget. Unfortunately the President has completely politicized the response every step of the way.

Edited by StrangeSox

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15 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

The Covid lunacy has doomed Paul to nothing more than a niche candidacy like his father, along with his unruly mop of hair and getting tackled by a neighbor.

 

Teacher says school reopenings would be 'epidemiological nightmare' as thousands sign remote learning petition

More than 25,000 teachers, students and parents want to continue distance learning this fall until U.S. coronavirus cases — 3 million and counting — subside for 14 days in their respective counties, according to a new petition that claims in-person school would lead to a health care disaster.

The Change.org proposal was written by Harley Litzelman, a history and economics teacher at Skyline High School in Oakland. Alameda County, where Oakland is located, has more than 7,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, according to Friday data. According to Litzelman, resuming in-person classes would “glorify the endless sacrifice of American teaching,” as he explained in a June 30 article on the website Medium calling for support of the petition, which uses the hashtag #14daysnonewcases.

“We refuse to return to campus this fall until our counties report no new cases of COVID-19 for at least 14 consecutive days,” reads the petition. “Let it be known that this is not simply a petition, but a statement of intent, a pledge not to return until it is safe.”

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/teacher-school-reopenings-epidemiological-nightmare-thousands-sign-remote-learning-petition-215709113.html

I don't think there is any scenario where Rand Paul is anything but a niche candidate.  He is just an awful person and senator

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8 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Your discussion of positive test rate is flat out wrong. It tells you if your testing capacity is overwhelmed or not. It doesn't tell you where you're likely heading. We could be testing 2M per day with super low positive test rate, but if we're not tracing and isolating it's pretty meaningless. If you're sitting at 1000k cases per day, you're primed to lose control very quickly. Our positive rate is trending back up, anyway.

 

The federal government leaving states to fend for themselves is a massive failure of the federal government and the White House specifically as the feds have a lot of tools, including public persuasion, that states don't. Especially monetary/budget. Unfortunately the President has completely politicized the response every step of the way.

Positive test rate is an indicator of how widespread the virus is. A state with a high percentage of positive tests could eventually lead to increased hospitalizations, but obviously, that is a function of total cases identified, the demographics and the symptoms being present

States will have more demand in area's with higher positive rates, but states are adding more capacity to test. Illinois is now up to 35K+ - it wasn't long enough that Illinois was under 10K tests per day. They continued to ramp up testing locations as percentage of positive tests were 20%. 

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20 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

I don't think there is any scenario where Rand Paul is anything but a niche candidate.  He is just an awful person and senator

He always receives some initial attention because he's an outlier and creates some attention for himself with his style. He is never going to be a national candidate.

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1 hour ago, spiderman said:

He always receives some initial attention because he's an outlier and creates some attention for himself with his style. He is never going to be a national candidate.

It's funny how no matter how many times the mods warn us, politics creeps back into the thread and the board. Not complaining just chuckling a bit how much politics rules our minds.

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1 hour ago, spiderman said:

Positive test rate is an indicator of how widespread the virus is. A state with a high percentage of positive tests could eventually lead to increased hospitalizations, but obviously, that is a function of total cases identified, the demographics and the symptoms being present

States will have more demand in area's with higher positive rates, but states are adding more capacity to test. Illinois is now up to 35K+ - it wasn't long enough that Illinois was under 10K tests per day. They continued to ramp up testing locations as percentage of positive tests were 20%. 

The high percentage told you that you weren't capturing nearly the whole scope. The lower positivity tells you that you are testing enough. 

But testing enough isn't the only thing that matters. Testing doesn't stop the spread directly. You need to get results to people quickly enough, and you need rapids contact tracing in place to smother the spread. So raw totals are still very, very important. The more cases you have, the harder it is to contain any individual cluster even if you have low positivity rates.

 

Let's say we tested 1m per day in Illinois, but our results weren't rapidly available and we weren't sufficiently contact tracing. Our positivity would be well below 1% even if we had 10k and growing new cases every single day. The raw count still tells you if you're primed for this to spiral out of control exponentially. That's where Illinois is sitting today.

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A potential housing crisis is on the way for millions of Americans whose mortgage and rent deferrals are about to sunset.

Evictions loom as the end of state and local moratoriums will no longer protect homeowners and tenants unable to make payments because of COVID-19 lockdowns. A minority of U.S. states have already expired orders against evictions, and a host of others across the country are set to expire over the next two months.

Once they do, residents are facing a possible flood of non-payment legal actions. The COVID-19 Eviction Defense Project (CEDP) predicted recently that by the end of September, more than 20 million U.S. renters —many of them Black and Latino located in big cities — will be at risk for eviction.

According to data released on Friday by mortgage tracking firm ATTOM Data Solutions, homeowners most at risk for foreclosures during the second quarter were those in metropolitan markets along the East Coast and in Northern Illinois, with clusters of troubled borrowers in New York City, Chicago, Baltimore and Washington, D.C.

“There are millions of Americans now unemployed due to the pandemic with greatly reduced means to keep up on their mortgages,” Todd Teta, ATTOM’s chief product officer, told Yahoo Finance in an email.

“At some point, banks are going to need mortgage holders to pay what they owe and go after those who don't,” he added.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/renters-homeowners-face-new-phase-of-coronavirus-crisis-evictions-172940378.html

 

 

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Trump finally wore a mask and in public. Now he dispatched his surgeon general and the assistant secretary for health on the Sunday shows to promote masks and defend the administration. Now he would be best served to go in front of the cameras and say to wear masks and their benefits. But still, this is the same dude that said that his opponent wearing a mask is weak. Nice about-face.

Edited by The Beast

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11 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

 

so strange how this virus isn't actually political and you cannot tell it what to do.

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A friend of mine knows someone significant In the Iowa athletic department. He told me this person told him they really do not expect to play football this fall. Hopefully in the spring.

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They are also playing baseball with crowds in Taiwan.

Those countries probably don’t test enough so the virus decided to go somewhere else

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1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

A friend of mine knows someone significant In the Iowa athletic department. He told me this person told him they really do not expect to play football this fall. Hopefully in the spring.

Any school that thinks they can do fall sports is deluding themselves right now, it's just a matter of time. 

Getting pro sports going in this country has required testing every 2 days for MLB, and even then it's an open question whether it will work. The country simply doesn't have the testing capacity to do that with college sports. 

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Illinois wrestling camps were all cancelled this summer

 

So instead the parents took the kids to Indiana, where they had full spectators and nobody wearing masks.

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BUt HoW DiD tHe WhITe HoUSe FAiL uS?!?

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They have no plan to control this and keep us safe, and they don't care if you or your children die.

 

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17 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

They have no plan to control this and keep us safe, and they don't care if you or your children die.

 

Please tell me she didn’t really say this.  My god if there’s anyone more incompetent than Trump it’s Betsy fucking DeVos.

Edited by Chicago White Sox
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