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COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

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49 minutes ago, Soxbadger said:

When I went to college I had one really renowned professor. A few times he didnt show and they would play a tape recording of his past lectures.

And as ive said before you pay to belong the country club. Plenty of other people who will gladly pay that price to be a member. 

There's very commonly a difference between the renowed professors and the ones you actually learn sh*t from. 

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Yet somehow, in the last month, Trump has closed the lead from 12 points to 4, almost within the +/- margin of error...

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44 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Yet somehow, in the last month, Trump has closed the lead from 12 points to 4, almost within the +/- margin of error...

I'm curious who is actually conducting these polls and how to find them? I have yet to see one in the last 4+ years. I highly doubt the die hard Trump supporters are voting in them either.

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14 hours ago, Texsox said:

Seeing the professor live is worth $40k to $50k to you? That must be a five diamond professor. 

Actually the artificial inflation of college education makes no sense to me what so ever.  It defies the laws of market economies that its gone up so much.  

Edited by southsideirish71

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34 minutes ago, BigHurt3515 said:

I'm curious who is actually conducting these polls and how to find them? I have yet to see one in the last 4+ years. I highly doubt the die hard Trump supporters are voting in them either.

Surveys are usually 800-1500 or so people total. Odds are you won't be called. Sampling sizes for accurate representation are based on statistical formulas. Whenever you see an "NBC" or "Fox News" or "CNN" poll, it's a poll paid for by that organization but conducted by an independent 3rd party polling firm that will poll all sorts of different things for all sorts of companies for market research.

There are challenges with getting enough responses these days now that people mainly have cell phones and screen unknown numbers. Some outfits are trying out online polling with some success, but that's where they reach out to people to take a legitimate poll, not the obvious campaign push polls or website polls you might choose to find and respond to.

They have to make some assumptions as to what an accurate sample really is. You don't just call 1000 random people and then take that as your result. Something that the state-level polls didn't do well on in 2016 was that they didn't weight their samples by education enough, and that ended up mattering. How many D's responded vs. how many D's are in that area/the country? How many R's? How many of your respondents have a college degree? Race/gender etc.?

You can follow some twitter feeds like https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls who just tweet out the latest polls regularly. But for actual scientific polls, it's not something you go out and sign up for since that really skews your sample responses--people who are motivated enough to go find a poll probably aren't an accurate cross-section of the general public. 

 

All that said, I'm not sure how big of a "shy Trump" vote is hiding from the polls out there right now. Trump supporters don't really seem to be shy about it these days.

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1 hour ago, StrangeSox said:

Surveys are usually 800-1500 or so people total. Odds are you won't be called. Sampling sizes for accurate representation are based on statistical formulas. Whenever you see an "NBC" or "Fox News" or "CNN" poll, it's a poll paid for by that organization but conducted by an independent 3rd party polling firm that will poll all sorts of different things for all sorts of companies for market research.

There are challenges with getting enough responses these days now that people mainly have cell phones and screen unknown numbers. Some outfits are trying out online polling with some success, but that's where they reach out to people to take a legitimate poll, not the obvious campaign push polls or website polls you might choose to find and respond to.

They have to make some assumptions as to what an accurate sample really is. You don't just call 1000 random people and then take that as your result. Something that the state-level polls didn't do well on in 2016 was that they didn't weight their samples by education enough, and that ended up mattering. How many D's responded vs. how many D's are in that area/the country? How many R's? How many of your respondents have a college degree? Race/gender etc.?

You can follow some twitter feeds like https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls who just tweet out the latest polls regularly. But for actual scientific polls, it's not something you go out and sign up for since that really skews your sample responses--people who are motivated enough to go find a poll probably aren't an accurate cross-section of the general public. 

 

All that said, I'm not sure how big of a "shy Trump" vote is hiding from the polls out there right now. Trump supporters don't really seem to be shy about it these days.

I also wonder if they ask supporting questions to see if someone is lying to them or if there is nuance in their answers.

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Good polling outlets release all their data and methodologies so you can see what the raw responses were, how and why they weighted the responses, and all the crosstabs of how they get to the topline numbers of "Biden xx% Trump zz%". I think generally though they take the answers they get as honest. How many people are going to spend 10+ minutes on a call with a pollster just to "trick" them out of the thousands they call?

 

Here's a random recent example from Quinnipiac of Florida in July of a variety of questions.

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3668

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We can't have on campus education. Why? The second we open up, if we test, we'll get stories like this. Everybody in this sorority is quarantined at Oklahoma State after 23 cases? This is ridiculous. Now they are all trapped in there a couple weeks. Other dorms where they don't test around the country? It's just not doable. I am starting to think the country is about OK with herd mentality. Everybody's gonna get this virus.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/16/us/osu-sorority-covid-trnd/index.html

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It's a shame they didn't realize the inevitable outcome before causing even more community spread.

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2 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

It's a shame they didn't realize the inevitable outcome before causing even more community spread.

something something, same mistake over and over again.

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Metro East has reached 'mitigation level' and will face new restrictions in Illinois. Here's the tough new crackdown:

 

https://capitolfax.com/2020/08/16/state-announces-mitigation-effort-in-metro-east/

 

Once a region meets resurgence criteria, mitigations will be implemented. For Region 4, mitigation measures taking effect August 18, 2020, include the following:

  • • Meetings, social events, and other gatherings are now limited to the lesser of 25 individuals or 25 percent of overall room capacity
    • All bars, restaurants, gaming facilities, and casinos will close at 11 pm, matching the newly imposed closing times for St. Louis
    • All reception halls closed
    • Party buses not allowed to operate
    • Reservations required for each party at restaurants and bars, and no congregating indoors or outdoors
    • Indoor tables reduced to six people or less
    • No dancing indoors
    • Removal of bar stools at bars to help prevent congregating
    • Tables should continue to be six feet apart

 

I'm sure this will do the trick!

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50 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

It's a shame they didn't realize the inevitable outcome before causing even more community spread.

Just after you posted this, UNC went fully virtual for the semester. 

 

 135 cases in 1 week of being open.

 

 

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4 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

Surveys are usually 800-1500 or so people total. Odds are you won't be called. Sampling sizes for accurate representation are based on statistical formulas. Whenever you see an "NBC" or "Fox News" or "CNN" poll, it's a poll paid for by that organization but conducted by an independent 3rd party polling firm that will poll all sorts of different things for all sorts of companies for market research.

There are challenges with getting enough responses these days now that people mainly have cell phones and screen unknown numbers. Some outfits are trying out online polling with some success, but that's where they reach out to people to take a legitimate poll, not the obvious campaign push polls or website polls you might choose to find and respond to.

They have to make some assumptions as to what an accurate sample really is. You don't just call 1000 random people and then take that as your result. Something that the state-level polls didn't do well on in 2016 was that they didn't weight their samples by education enough, and that ended up mattering. How many D's responded vs. how many D's are in that area/the country? How many R's? How many of your respondents have a college degree? Race/gender etc.?

You can follow some twitter feeds like https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls who just tweet out the latest polls regularly. But for actual scientific polls, it's not something you go out and sign up for since that really skews your sample responses--people who are motivated enough to go find a poll probably aren't an accurate cross-section of the general public. 

 

All that said, I'm not sure how big of a "shy Trump" vote is hiding from the polls out there right now. Trump supporters don't really seem to be shy about it these days.

Thank you for the info, I didn't know that!

For the bolded: I would say the opposite. I would think most people who are going to vote for Trump or support what he has done aren't inclined to speak up with fear of being labeled a racist or whatever other name you can think of.

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First day of staff development. In some ways I feel like I was drafted. I'm hearing things like WHEN someone has symptoms, WHEN we have a positive test, WHEN you are quarantined. 

 

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So we were told today that our company is going to try to re open our office on October 1. The plan is to have half the employees come in for a week, and the other half the next. As sick of working from home as I am, I think I will probably opt out for at least another month or two. 

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4 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

Good polling outlets release all their data and methodologies so you can see what the raw responses were, how and why they weighted the responses, and all the crosstabs of how they get to the topline numbers of "Biden xx% Trump zz%". I think generally though they take the answers they get as honest. How many people are going to spend 10+ minutes on a call with a pollster just to "trick" them out of the thousands they call?

 

Here's a random recent example from Quinnipiac of Florida in July of a variety of questions.

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3668

Thank you for sharing. I do wonder if the shy Trump voter theory is true though.

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Iowa has been putting out faulty numbers for weeks.

 

 

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9 hours ago, southsideirish71 said:

Actually the artificial inflation of college education makes no sense to me what so ever.  It defies the laws of market economies that its gone up so much.  

1- Simple supply and demand.  The market is flooded with easy loans.  The universities are more than happy to take the money.

2- Parents have lost all ability to tell there kids “no, we can’t afford it”.  (Because they cant tell themselves that). Believe me, I know, I live in Naperville, the epicenter of people not being able to tell their kids no.  When parents are willing to spend then you have to put in the climbing wall and the dorm suites in order to attract the money or the money will go elsewhere 

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2 hours ago, RTC said:

1- The market is flooded with easy loans.  The universities are more than happy to take the money.

2- Parents have lost all ability to tell there kids “no, we can’t afford it”.  (Because they cant tell themselves that). Believe me, I know, I live in Naperville, the epicenter of people not being able to tell their kids no.  When parents are willing to spend then you have to put in the climbing wall and the dorm suites in order to attract the money or the money will go elsewhere 

On #1, this is true. What's more, student loans are not tied to a borrower's ability to repay, and nor are they tied to an asset. [In this case, the student's future earnings potential.]

For some stupid reason, someone who borrows a metric fvkcton of cash to stupidly get a degree in "recreation studies" can borrow as much as someone who studies electrical engineering, for example. This leads to overpricing in degrees that have little value, because the fed guarantees the cash will get to the schools. If the schools KNOW that the loans guarantee that they'll get their cash, they'll keep jacking up the prices, without any real regard to the quality of the product delivered. 

 

For #2, I often suggest to parents that they SERIOUSLY consider the JC route for their child for their 1st year or 2 years of their bachelor's degrees. English 101 is the same fvkcing thing, whether you pay $45K/year in tuition to Loyola, or take it at COD for less than $10K/year. So too are the rest of the 100-level courses, be it in Bio, the maths, or whatever. The "college experience" is an abject waste of time and money, unless you either have the means to pay for it, get a scholly of some sort, or have saved for it. [This is often hard for young Boomer/Gen X parents to reconcile, because those generations had a different experience than kids do today.]

 

That said, if your child is truly gifted [READ: They get into a top school, like an Ivy, Stanford, U of C, etc...], AND want to pursue a path that requires a lot of networking and connections, then that is a different conversation. But, for the most part, if you haven't saved for the ENTIRETY of your kid's college, have them go to JC for a year or two, and bend the cost curve downward. When they finish, their degree won't make mention of their attendance at COD, or Moraine Valley, or Daley College. It'll only list where they finished their programs.

 

Hell, with COVID being in place, I'd DEFINITELY have my kid go to JC if (s)he were entering college this year/next year. I'd then defer entry into their 4 year school whenever we're on the other side of COVID, for the simple fact that I wouldn't squander cash on remote learning. YMMV.

Edited by Two-Gun Pete
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13 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

 

 

Man, if we only had the foresight to realize that putting 1000's of teachers and students in close contact with each other for 6-8 hours a day was a bad idea...

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8 minutes ago, Iwritecode said:

Man, if we only had the foresight to realize that putting 1000's of teachers and students in close contact with each other for 6-8 hours a day was a bad idea...

Yes, if only. Where I live, the town board discussed having a fall festival in our town square. One town board member doubted that was wise as it expose town workers to a large gathering. So true. However, with people with outlaying communities attending as well, we would have the potential to spread the virus throughout the local geographical area. Maybe we should realize we have a pandemic here.

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1 hour ago, Iwritecode said:

Man, if we only had the foresight to realize that putting 1000's of teachers and students in close contact with each other for 6-8 hours a day was a bad idea...

 

 

who ever could have seen this coming

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