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COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

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3 hours ago, BrianAnderson said:

no winning is just an expression my man. 

A no-win set of conditions is one in which whatever happens there will be an unhappy and unsuccessful result: to be in a no-win situation.

Aka, if you say let's shut down everything, let's stay inside, let's follow the rules and get healthy. Then everybody lives, but jobs crash. 

If you say let's go out there and work, try to be safe ... well, you see what happens, people don't follow rules and get sick. 

AKA no winning. 

 

I don't care about winning an argument ... who cares if i win an argument with a stranger on a white sox message board about a nuanced topic like covid? Like what i say here is going to change anybody's mind or have an influence in the world in the slightest.. ha. It's a topic like religion and politics nowadays ... people are dug in, trying to defend their "side" as much as possible when the topic has so many angles that in reality there is no right answer. 

My mistake, thank you for explaining. 

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7 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

Europe had been doing a lot better

 

We're really struggling in some places in Canada again too. :(

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23 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

Trump gave a speech today and sounded horrible. He still has mucus in his lungs.

Would be a shame if he had a relapse after being so brave and invincible.

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On 10/14/2020 at 11:23 AM, StrangeSox said:

Sky News found dozens of fake names on the list of medical signatories, which anyone can add to if they tick a box and enter a name. These included Dr. I.P. Freely, Dr. Person Fakename and Dr. Johnny Bananas, who listed himself as a “Dr of Hard Sums”.

 

I'm surprised the fake names didn't include Drs. "Howard, Fine and Howard." Paging Dr. Howard, Dr. Fine, Dr. Howard.

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The most amazing thing I see is that many people still aren't taking this threat seriously. And they are endangering others as a result.

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23 minutes ago, NWINFan said:

The most amazing thing I see is that many people still aren't taking this threat seriously. And they are endangering others as a result.

The numbers have done nothing but accelerate since school started, but that isn't the problem.  Sure. Lol, right. People want to believe so bad they just buy anything.  Literally every time we loosen restrictions and open up, numbers go back up.

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2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

The numbers have done nothing but accelerate since school started, but that isn't the problem.  Sure. Lol, right. People want to believe so bad they just buy anything.  Literally every time we loosen restrictions and open up, numbers go back up.

In a sense, all of this is very human. It's too depressing to contemplate. But the country is at a stage when we have snap out of it. It is really happening no matter how tough it is to face. Back in the spring I said this was the one of the biggest crisis the country ever had to face. A person responded by saying the War of 1812 was worse. After all the British attacked the White House. Now the White House is a virus cluster.

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The problem with that study is that you're working with very incomplete and limited data. It relies on schools self-reporting infections and doesn't account for asymptomatic spreading. She's not an epidemiologist. The whole article has a very smug attitude about it as well, which makes me wonder if there's some motivated reasoning going on behind this economist's research.

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Really shows the false dichotomy of "savings lives/the economy"

 

ycQUDu4.png

 

 

It turns out that unless you get the pandemic under control, your economy suffers!

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On 10/16/2020 at 8:56 AM, southsider2k5 said:

The numbers have done nothing but accelerate since school started, but that isn't the problem.  Sure. Lol, right. People want to believe so bad they just buy anything.  Literally every time we loosen restrictions and open up, numbers go back up.

I'm pleasantly surprised that at my school of over 3,200 students we've had no teachers (actually any adults)  infected so far and only two students since we resumed. I believe part of the reason it's we're using city wide metrics to guide how we reopen. Our area was never hard hit but we're using worst case data. 

I'm going to be interested in the longitudinal data on the affect of one less than ideal year of education on children's development. My hunch is we'll see a wider gap than usual between economic groups. Children of  parents who are better educated and have a higher economic situation will not fall as behind as economic at risk children. Also children with learning struggles will fall behind as no in person remediation is available.

My district is prioritizing getting those kids back on campus as quickly as possible but we're far from achieving 100% of those children on campus.

 

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Daniel Griffin on the latest TWiV pointed out something important. A lot of spread may not be traced to happening in the school buildings themselves right now, but kids and families have shifted their risk assessments substantially based on the clear and loud public policy signals that "schools are safe." So if schools are safe, and the kids are in classrooms with other kids all day...why not let Johnny have a birthday party with 10-15 other kids? And sure the parents can come for a bit, too, we're all already exposed indirectly. The risk-taking creeps and creeps and creeps.

Oops, superspreader event!

 

I'm glad my wife's district is now remote until January at the earliest for everyone but the highly special needs. She's already had two students in her remote classes test positive. Illinois actually tallied the most cases in the country yesterday, cracking 4.3k on a Sunday. Lots of sharks down at Oak Street Beach.

Edited by StrangeSox

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My wife has the same issue. She teaches at a private school with nearly all the kids in attendance. They don't understand why they can play and travel together on the weekends without masks but have to distance at school.

There are still areas in Texas with zero cases that don't follow any restrictions. Wide open ranch lands just don't seem to be good shark habitat. 

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Pretty easy to be socially distant when your nearest neighbor is 50 miles away! Drove from Midland-Odessa down to BBNP last December. There's a whole lotta nothing on the way, and even more once you get there.

 

We're going to be going the opposite way, if anything. Currently, we both work from home, and our parents watch our kids 4 days a week. They're all either wfh, retired or furloughed and don't go anywhere but the grocery store once every week or so, maybe the occasional doctor's appointment. Once my wife is back in school and the kids are in daycare, we won't be able to see them until mid-June. Unfortunate, but that's the way to keep them safe from exponentially more second-order contacts via the daycare and school.

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On 10/16/2020 at 8:56 AM, southsider2k5 said:

The numbers have done nothing but accelerate since school started, but that isn't the problem.  Sure. Lol, right. People want to believe so bad they just buy anything.  Literally every time we loosen restrictions and open up, numbers go back up.

You've had some interesting posts on COVID, many I disagree with obviously. I'd like to hear your summation of what we should be doing now and what should have been done then in 10 paragraphs or less. Pls. take into consideration EVERYTHING ... the insidious disease, but also the economy (not the big corps but the little guys and gals need to eat and have shelter) and mental health. You are very opinionated and get upset at others' comments like mine a lot. I'd like to see your plan in a nutshell. What should be done now and what shoulda been done at the start all the way thru late fall into this dark winter. Thank u in advance.

Edited by greg775

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3 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

Pretty easy to be socially distant when your nearest neighbor is 50 miles away! Drove from Midland-Odessa down to BBNP last December. There's a whole lotta nothing on the way, and even more once you get there.

 

We're going to be going the opposite way, if anything. Currently, we both work from home, and our parents watch our kids 4 days a week. They're all either wfh, retired or furloughed and don't go anywhere but the grocery store once every week or so, maybe the occasional doctor's appointment. Once my wife is back in school and the kids are in daycare, we won't be able to see them until mid-June. Unfortunate, but that's the way to keep them safe from exponentially more second-order contacts via the daycare and school.

And few tourists or outside contact. When I was out that way a couple months ago I stopped in a gas station and put on a mask and fresh gloves to go inside. The clerk thanked me and mentioned how she felt bad but she wasn't as neighborly to strangers as she normally would have been. But I noticed her spraying and wiping as I was leaving. 

We had 450 students sign up for in person classes but less than 200 are actually coming on campus. Our total enrollment is 3,200. I have one or two in each class each day and basically have to ignore them in person and work with them on line. 

Anecdotally it seems more students that selected virtual classes are testing positive than in person. We believe it's because many of those kids are working in fast food and retail operations. The district is requesting all teachers report to campus which is causing some stress. Currently about 120 of our 140 teachers are on campus.

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18 hours ago, Texsox said:

And few tourists or outside contact. When I was out that way a couple months ago I stopped in a gas station and put on a mask and fresh gloves to go inside. The clerk thanked me and mentioned how she felt bad but she wasn't as neighborly to strangers as she normally would have been. But I noticed her spraying and wiping as I was leaving. 

We had 450 students sign up for in person classes but less than 200 are actually coming on campus. Our total enrollment is 3,200. I have one or two in each class each day and basically have to ignore them in person and work with them on line. 

Anecdotally it seems more students that selected virtual classes are testing positive than in person. We believe it's because many of those kids are working in fast food and retail operations. The district is requesting all teachers report to campus which is causing some stress. Currently about 120 of our 140 teachers are on campus.

See that’s why you don’t have spreading in the schools and teachers getting infected, your building is 10% full. The size of the district is not a helpful number except as a denominator there to tell how vacant the place is. Teachers only get sick if 1 of the 2 kids in that room can transmit and they’re not taking the right precautions (open windows/ air flow / masks).

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On 10/18/2020 at 2:36 PM, StrangeSox said:

Really shows the false dichotomy of "savings lives/the economy"

 

ycQUDu4.png

 

 

It turns out that unless you get the pandemic under control, your economy suffers!

https://marker.medium.com/forget-shutdowns-its-demand-shock-that-s-killing-our-economy-3062e94c122e

This was my preferred read of the day.

Quote

This shouldn’t be a revelation. In fact, myriad studies have now shown that in the early days of the pandemic, people began voluntarily socially distancing and avoiding places they perceived as risky even before lockdowns were put in place. And if you go further back in history, during the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, businesses stayed open in most cities, yet economic activity still fell sharply, and contemporary accounts suggest that the economy only started to rebound when people became less afraid of catching the flu. The point is that lifting stay-at-home orders and opening restaurants isn’t enough: Until consumers feel safe, they’re going to stay away.

In the wake of the spring lockdowns, a popular narrative emerged that the only thing holding back the U.S. economy were busybody government officials who insisted on keeping stuff shut down. And, to be sure, government-imposed restrictions are still playing a role in holding back the economy, particularly in states like California — which has yet to allow Disneyland, or movie theaters, to open. But what the experience of restaurants and gyms and theme parks is telling us is that the problem now isn’t lockdowns. It’s something more basic: justifiable fear.

 

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4 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

See that’s why you don’t have spreading in the schools and teachers getting infected, your building is 10% full. The size of the district is not a helpful number except as a denominator there to tell how vacant the place is. Teachers only get sick if 1 of the 2 kids in that room can transmit and they’re not taking the right precautions (open windows/ air flow / masks).

Open doors but not windows. I have my 30 desks arranged into 10 pods. They get sprayed after anyone sits there and left to dry. There's a one hour minimum between kids sitting at the same desk,but more likely three hours. Not enough on its own but it allows me to let the disinfectant air dry. I'm wearing a mask and there is a small plexiglass divider but it really doesn't do anything. I'm also fortunate to teach seniors who are least likely to be coming on campus. 

My biggest risk is coaching. All the golf facilities are running at full capacity and we are mixed with the public. 

And paperwork. We're continuously contact tracing. I can report exactly where everyone has sat in every class this year. I can tell you who followed who at a certain location on the range. Which players played together in practice rounds or tournament. I know who I've been in close contact with day by day. Bloody pain in the arse. 

I've met virtually with two coaches who have had players test positive and don't want the experience. The records that the health officials and our district want is a full time job. 

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