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COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

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Long story short, when it is your job to enforce Covid safety rules life can get interesting really fast.  Fortunately I've worked with most of the coaches involved today for eight years and (believe it or not) I'm regarded as the easy going, easy to work with coach. 

I'll just say other team's parents can be a problem,  especially when there is a rookie coach who needs to find a spine. 

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6 hours ago, bmags said:

 

one of those things where had a relief package passed in october this would have already been readied. But I still think Illinois/locales could have stood this up faster anyway. We all knew in october a vaccine was close, mass vaccination plans should have been underway. It's like they just started when they heard they were getting vaccine.

I can assure you that this wasn't the case.

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2 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

These 6 are all city colleges. 

Bummer. They might as well convert McCormick Place to be a hospital rather than a convention center then.

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So good and bad news out of Israel 

- initial returns show promise that the vaccines do reduce transmission. Was always likely but not studied.

- Israel has vaccinated 25% of their population rapidly but are still in a steep increase of infections. 
 

US isn’t close to 25% (well, maybe we are  with previous infections).

But things are at the 1 million per day twice this week and we know of a lot of state capacity opening up. Hopefully we can get surprised with rapid improvement

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47 minutes ago, bmags said:

So good and bad news out of Israel 

- initial returns show promise that the vaccines do reduce transmission. Was always likely but not studied.

- Israel has vaccinated 25% of their population rapidly but are still in a steep increase of infections. 
 

US isn’t close to 25% (well, maybe we are  with previous infections).

But things are at the 1 million per day twice this week and we know of a lot of state capacity opening up. Hopefully we can get surprised with rapid improvement

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/14/health/covid-immunity-antibodies-intl/index.html

Quote

 

The SIREN research study regularly tested almost 21,000 health workers from across the UK between June and November. Among them, 6,614 people participants tested positive for antibodies against the virus, while more than 14,000 had no signs of previous infection.

But of those who had been infected, 44 developed possible new infections -- representing an 83% level of protection against reinfection.

The study will continue to monitor healthcare workers for 12 months to see if protection lasts even longer, but for now the length of protection identified means that people who caught the virus in the first wave of infections may now be able to catch it again. It will also look into the impact of the new variant and the effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccines.

But early insight from the next stage of the study shows that some people with existing immunity carry high levels of virus and could transmit the virus to others.

 

People who were infected in the first wave, nearly a year ago now, probably have pretty substantially reduced immunity and can almost certainly reinfect other people. Even people who caught it in last summer's wave are going to have pretty reduced immunity on average.

It turns out that the whole "natural herd immunity" strategy that almost the entire medical and public health communities called absolutely insane and unworkable is absolutely insane and unworkable.

Shots need to get into arms immediately. I sort of suspected it was the case, but it's disappointing to hear that the goal is now "100M shots by the end of 100 days," so only maybe 60-70M people with at least a single shot by May as the pandemic rages and the more contagious variants take hold.

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When Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar announced this week that the federal government would begin releasing coronavirus vaccine doses held in reserve for second shots, no such reserve existed, according to state and federal officials briefed on distribution plans. The Trump administration had already begun shipping out what was available beginning at the end of December, taking second doses directly off the manufacturing line.

Now, health officials across the country who had anticipated their extremely limited vaccine supply as much as doubling beginning next week are confronting the reality that their allocations will not immediately increase, dashing hopes of dramatically expanding eligibility for millions of elderly people and those with high-risk medical conditions. Health officials in some cities and states were informed in recent days about the reality of the situation, while others are still in the dark.

Because both of the vaccines authorized for emergency use in the United States are two-dose regimens, the Trump administration’s initial policy was to hold back second doses to protect against the possibility of manufacturing disruptions. But that approach shifted in recent weeks, according to the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter. The result is that next week’s allocations will remain flat.

5 more days until we swap this out with basic competence. 5 more days of this.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/15/trump-vaccine-reserve-used-up/?tid=ss_tw

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Any reason not to assume that, just like with tons of PPE shipments last Spring, this wasn't stolen by the Feds and have now simply disappeared?

 

And don't forget, these malicious assholes have decided not to invoke the DPA to ramp up production, something that could have been started months ago.

Edited by StrangeSox

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39 minutes ago, Quin said:

May we never hear "run it like a business" again.

West Virginia is currently outpacing the rest of the country in vaccine distribution. NPR dug into why:

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/01/07/954409347/why-west-virginias-winning-the-race-to-get-covid-19-vaccine-into-arms

Quote

For one thing, West Virginia has been charting its own path to vaccine distribution. All 49 other states signed on with a federal program partnering with CVS and Walgreens to vaccinate long-term care and assisted living facilities. But those chain stores are less common in West Virginia, so the state instead took charge of delivering its vaccine supply to 250 pharmacies — most of them small, independent stores.

 

And another article examining why:

https://theconversation.com/the-simple-reason-west-virginia-leads-the-nation-in-vaccinating-nursing-home-residents-153274

 

Quote

 

The big difference is in the numbers. Under the federal partnership program, CVS planned to have about 1,000 of its pharmacies as vaccine hubs to serve some 25,000 nursing home facilities across the nation, a CVS official told The Wall Street Journal in early December. Similarly, a Walgreens official said his company would have 800 to 1,000 Walgreens pharmacies to serve as hubs for about 23,000 nursing home facilities.

That meant each CVS and Walgreens pharmacy on average planned to serve about 25 nursing homes.

West Virginia chose to mobilize independent and chain pharmacies alike, rather than relying just on CVS and Walgreens. Over 250 pharmacies offered to help in vaccinating people at 214 nursing homes. In other words, each nursing home on average is served by more than one pharmacy.

 

Quote

 

Under the contracts signed with the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, CVS and Walgreens essentially won the right to vaccinate about 99% of U.S. nursing homes that registered with the program. They had little incentive to commit a large number of pharmacies and workers to the daunting task of vaccinating people in nursing homes.

In West Virginia, however, hundreds of local and other chain pharmacies were involved, and each had every incentive to provide speedy services so nursing homes would not walk away from the vaccination deals. Local pharmacies also often have existing relationships with nursing homes – relationships they want to keep.

 

 

Tear up the CVS/Walgreens contracts and start giving it to every qualified pharmacy and doctor's office in the state. Everything about this rollout has been a complete disaster.

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putting total numbers daily is just the least helpful way of communicating ever.

But +33k 2nd highest.

However, our 7 day rolling average looks like it's plateauing, sort of like when we hit 10k/day in testing.

Screen Shot 2021-01-15 at 12.11.31 PM.png

Maybe sometime we won't take weekends off.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-variant-dominant-us/2021/01/15/4420d814-5738-11eb-a817-e5e7f8a406d6_story.html 


The highly contagious variant of the coronavirus first seen in the United Kingdom will become the dominant strain in the United States within about two months, its rapid spread heightening the urgency of getting people vaccinated, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicted Friday in its most sobering warning yet about mutations in the virus.

In every scenario explored by the CDC, the U.K. strain, which British researchers estimate is roughly 50 percent more transmissible than the more common coronavirus strain, will account for a majority of cases in the United States by some point in March.

We are going to be at 3k+ deaths/day through the spring.

 

CDC report here:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm?s_cid=mm7003e2_w#F1_down

Edited by StrangeSox

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6 hours ago, Quin said:

May we never hear "run it like a business" again.

Jared Kushner and his posse of PPE experts/Ivy frat buds are in trouble...

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On 1/15/2021 at 12:12 PM, bmags said:

 

putting total numbers daily is just the least helpful way of communicating ever.

But +33k 2nd highest.

However, our 7 day rolling average looks like it's plateauing, sort of like when we hit 10k/day in testing.

Screen Shot 2021-01-15 at 12.11.31 PM.png

Maybe sometime we won't take weekends off.

All the way back down to only 8.5k yesterday. Lowest number of daily vaccinations since January 3rd. 7-day average trending rapidly downward. Absolutely pathetic.

 

 

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This public health stuff is difficult. We have a mostly honest government, imagine third world countries where corruption is the norm. 

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1 hour ago, Texsox said:

This public health stuff is difficult. We have a mostly honest government, imagine third world countries where corruption is the norm. 

I’m glad you have reawakened after your exactly 4 year long nap. I have some bad news for you.

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My wife was trying to help her Trump loving uncle register for the vaccine as it is now available for 65+ year olds here in AZ. She couldn’t make an appointment for him because the slots are already full (and I assume we’ll run out of the vaccine soon).

Her uncle immediately started blaming Biden and Pelosi and saying it was a political conspiracy to limit who gets the vaccine. Seriously, these people are nuts.

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4 minutes ago, Middle Buffalo said:

My wife was trying to help her Trump loving uncle register for the vaccine as it is now available for 65+ year olds here in AZ. She couldn’t make an appointment for him because the slots are already full (and I assume we’ll run out of the vaccine soon).

Her uncle immediately started blaming Biden and Pelosi and saying it was a political conspiracy to limit who gets the vaccine. Seriously, these people are nuts.

Indiana is currently giving to people with qualifying situations (medical, first responders etc) and 70 years or older.  Our county is booked out until APRIL for an appointment.

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I'd rather the reports that we are having vaccine shortages than not using what's there.

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/19/single-covid-vaccine-dose-in-israel-less-effective-than-we-hoped

Quote

Israel’s coronavirus tsar has warned that a single dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine may be providing less protection than originally hoped, as the country reported a record 10,000 new Covid infections on Monday.

In remarks reported by Army Radio, Nachman Ash said a single dose appeared “less effective than we had thought”, and also lower than Pfizer had suggested.

By contrast, those who had received their second dose of the Pfizer vaccine had a six- to 12-fold increase in antibodies, according to data released by Sheba Medical Center in Tel Hashomer on Monday.

The issue of some vaccines being less effective after a single dose rather than two is well known, as well as the fact that protection is not immediate. While the first dose can take several weeks to promote an effective antibody response, the second dose can trigger different responses, supercharging the protection. Pfizer itself says a single dose of its vaccine is about 52% effective. Some countries such as the UK have delayed administering their second doses to try to maximise the number of people given a first dose.

 

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

what's the hospitalization rate of those infected after one dose? What's the breakdown of how soon after vaccine administered that they were infected?

There's more than one consideration here. 

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8 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I’m glad you have reawakened after your exactly 4 year long nap. I have some bad news for you.

Travel central and south America and you realize how honest our government is. How much did you bribe officials to get your driver's license? 

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20 minutes ago, Texsox said:

Travel central and south America and you realize how honest our government is. How much did you bribe officials to get your driver's license? 

Ironically Texas’s attorney general was happy to accept that bribe.

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12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Ironically Texas’s attorney general was happy to accept that bribe.

You really have a low opinion of America. So where would you rather be living? 

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