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caulfield12

COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

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1 hour ago, Tony said:

There are crazy people on both sides. Always have been, always will be. The political divide in this country currently, combined with the rise of social media over the last decade, makes things even worse. I've made it pretty clear what side of the aisle I sit on, but I also try not to surround myself with "crazy" people. I have a number of conservative friends, some of those conservative friends voted for Trump, most didn't, but I can always have a rational conversation with them because at the end of the day our views are fairly similar aside from a few topics.

It really sucks how it feels like we're so far apart all the time. A bunch of "extremists" have to ruin it for everyone else. 

Yeah I'm leaning left but I have nothing against sane, moderate conservatives plus there are crazy leftists too.

Definitely pretty crazy atmosphere in us politics right now.

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21 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Where are you getting 6 trillion dollars? 

They just announced the package will be for 6 trillion dollars which is 1/3rd of the GDP. Only 2 trillion will be direct to american and 4 trillion will be QE and other corporate welfare.

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24 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

I don’t know the credibility level of this but man I hope this ends up being true.  This is finally the first hint of an article mentioning what I’ve been saying on here the last few weeks.  
 

Oxford?  I’ll take it.  Get out there scientists and test this theory!  Put some points on the board for the human race, we need it.  

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
 

Sure, anyone can argue anything, because NOBODY knows due to under-testing.   This Stanford epidemiologist was just on CNN arguing based on information from a cruise ship and Iceland statistics (just one death!) that it was THEORETICALLY the same or even LESS dangerous than the common flu virus.

He wants reliable data before making economy-shifting decisions, but it’s already way too late to use manpower for contact tracing and community surveillance.

They need 30,000 respirators and ventilators in NYC over the next month.

Without them, doctors will be making “hand of God” decisions (see Italy/Spain) on an hourly basis about who should live and die.

China can’t get them to the US before May.  Too late.

They’ve come up with under 1,000 today.  As they bid for them against other states and localities (capitalism!), it bids up the cost to taxpayers who will eventually foot the bill.

They simply need to allocate all available resources to NYC...deal with the crisis there, then quickly move equipment and fully experienced (with COVID-19) staff all across the country as new trouble spots like Illinois, Louisiana, Washington and California flare up.

That’s the only path that makes sense. GM, GE, Ford, Tesla and 3M can’t get it done that quickly.  It would have required converting the factories 6-8 weeks ago to meet present and future demands.

 

PS:  Spain is reduced to transforming garbage bags into PPE and calling in NATO.  So many bodies are piling up that nobody has the protective equipment to deal with them...so they all are being diverted to a massive ice skating arena.

 

Edited by caulfield12

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20 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

I don’t know the credibility level of this but man I hope this ends up being true.  This is finally the first hint of an article mentioning what I’ve been saying on here the last few weeks.  
 

Oxford?  I’ll take it.  Get out there scientists and test this theory!  Put some points on the board for the human race, we need it.  

Article behind a paywall.

Cliffnotes?

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11 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

Yeah I'm leaning left but I have nothing against sane, moderate conservatives plus there are crazy leftists too.

Definitely pretty crazy atmosphere in us politics right now.

Kasich, Hogan, DeWine and Baker might be it.

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15 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

They just announced the package will be for 6 trillion dollars which is 1/3rd of the GDP. Only 2 trillion will be direct to american and 4 trillion will be QE and other corporate welfare.

QE is under the purview of the fed and requires the approval of no congressional body. 

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37 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

QE, Fed purchases...lending power/backstop of the Fed, Treasury notes, etc.  Once upon a time, spending $1 trillion was considered a clear threat to future generations of Americans.   Now the pendulum has swung so far the other direction.

The other $4 trillion will allow the Federal Reserve to make huge emergency bailouts to whatever entity it chooses — a measure that was used to prop-up Wall Street firms from collapse during the 2008 financial crisis.

 

2008s response was clearly inadequate, this situation is in short term worse, I don’t see how this is a bad thing. 
 

The other 4 trillion of it even is that is from what I understand just hypothetical loans, and that was paid back in 2008.

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12 minutes ago, justBLAZE said:

Article behind a paywall.

Cliffnotes?

Oh weird I wasn’t blocked.  Basically Oxford is going to start testing for antibodies in the UK population like crazy to test a model that suggests the virus is super infectious, moves super fast and has already infected over half of the UK population, thus bringing them closer to herd immunity than thought.    maybe 1 in 1000 needs hospitalization.  
 

this is super optimistic and would be nice if true.   Some data out there suggests this might be true and some data says the total opposite, like Korea.  But the key is antibodies, not necessarily positive tests.   we’ll know if this model is close to correct if the deaths start leveling off in the next few weeks.  

this might end up being completely false just like everything I’ve been saying.  But they do raise an interesting point:

 We have no idea of infection or mortality rates until we start testing for antibodies.  

It’s just an optimistic view amid a sea of pessimism.  Hope is okay. Good luck to you Oxford.  
 

 

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Honestly...if these couple reports were right...it really would be tremendous. Not tremendous in the sense that we still have people who obviously are very negatively impacted by the disease, but positive that mortality rates & hospital rates would be dramatically worse.  You still have general health concerns (as evidenced by Italy where they just don't have the equipment) but much more manegable if that was already a deep infection / near peak season (vs. 1% of the population infected).  

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https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/why-trump-to-restart-the-economy-in-april-is-being-derided-as-totally-nuts-190129407.html
 

Good virus heat map of the entire country by counties...

 


😱Medical staff in the national capital New Delhi say they have been ostracized and discriminated against by their communities due to fears that they may be infected after working with coronavirus patients. Some doctors have even reported being evicted, or facing threats that their electricity will be cut off.

"Doctors, nurses and other healthcare workers involved in Covid care are being asked to vacate their rented homes and some have been even forcefully evicted from their temporary residence by landlords and house-owners due to the fear that those healthcare professionals make them susceptible to coronavirus infection," said a letter from the Resident Doctors' Association of New Delhi's All India Institute of Medical Sciences, sent on Tuesday to Union Home Minister Amit Shah.

"Many doctors are now stranded on the roads with all their luggage, nowhere to go, across the country," said the letter, which urged Shah to take action to protect the embattled medical workers.

www.cnn.com

Edited by caulfield12

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7 hours ago, bmags said:

2008s response was clearly inadequate, this situation is in short term worse, I don’t see how this is a bad thing. 
 

The other 4 trillion of it even is that is from what I understand just hypothetical loans, and that was paid back in 2008.

I agree, definitely good to invest a lot now even if it means lots of new debt. Need to keep the economy running.

What is bad is that goverment in the US hasn't saved money or slightly raised interests (not much, just a tiny bit) during good economy. Yeah that would have slowed growth a bit but it is actually good to slow the growth a bit during boom so you can invest when there is recession. 

Problem is people got greedy and never stopped lighting the fire during boom and now you don't have many reserves to put into. 

Still they absolutely need to invest now at all costs but hopefully they learn from this next time and stop big spending during the next good phase.

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Can't wait to find out how much money of this stimulus is allocated to the -ESSENTIAL- cruise industry.   Where would we all be now if not for all of these metal typhoid mary's weren't floating around the ocean, docking in international waters and setting up offshore shell companies to avoid paying taxes.   

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I want to know how much pork is in this stimulus package and how much this will add to our national debt. I understand it is stimulating the economy but damn that is a lot of money. Hopefully the oversight the Democrats sought is going to be enough to ensure money is being used properly and not for CEO bonuses and stock buy backs but for actual business reasons, which might be wishful thinking.

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18 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Can't wait to find out how much money of this stimulus is allocated to the -ESSENTIAL- cruise industry.   Where would we all be now if not for all of these metal typhoid mary's weren't floating around the ocean, docking in international waters and setting up offshore shell companies to avoid paying taxes.   

It's the hospitality industry of which a certain someone is also linked.  If that someone ran Amazon and Jeff Bezos ran the hotel and real estate company The Bezos Organization and dabbled in game shows, the cruise industrry would be left to die. 

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Also how are we getting the payments, is it going to bank accounts from our 2019 tax returns? Is this coming out of our income taxes for next year?

What oversight, eligibility guidelines and exclusions are there for businesses? Time will tell.

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Just give me the money to spend anonymously and I will take care of everyone. 

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35 minutes ago, The Beast said:

I want to know how much pork is in this stimulus package and how much this will add to our national debt. I understand it is stimulating the economy but damn that is a lot of money. Hopefully the oversight the Democrats sought is going to be enough to ensure money is being used properly and not for CEO bonuses and stock buy backs but for actual business reasons, which might be wishful thinking.

I assure you that whatever debt crisis would come will not be close to as bad as the unemployment numbers we will see on Thursday.

waste is the least of our worries right now. Better to be wasteful and fast than targeted and slow. 

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We may be looking at 20-25% unemployment in many states...waste is a secondary concern. The $600 per week for unemployment insurance plus expanding that group is huge. Businesses can put employees on furlough and bring them back in four months, and that group can just stay home and pay their bills.

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50 minutes ago, The Beast said:

I want to know how much pork is in this stimulus package and how much this will add to our national debt. I understand it is stimulating the economy but damn that is a lot of money. Hopefully the oversight the Democrats sought is going to be enough to ensure money is being used properly and not for CEO bonuses and stock buy backs but for actual business reasons, which might be wishful thinking.

Right now this bill will add about $2 trillion. however, because the Federal Reserve is going to simply buy up the bonds that are issued as part of their $4 trillion package, the effect in terms of increasing interest rates will be muted/gone as there's absolutely a market for those bonds. In a normal time, printing up $2 trillion and handing it to people would drive inflation, but that's 10% of the economy and the size of the economy is about to drop by more than 10%, so it's still probably not large enough to be a major inflationary push. And if it is...GREAT WE LIVED THROUGH THIS.

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9 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

Honestly...if these couple reports were right...it really would be tremendous. Not tremendous in the sense that we still have people who obviously are very negatively impacted by the disease, but positive that mortality rates & hospital rates would be dramatically worse.  You still have general health concerns (as evidenced by Italy where they just don't have the equipment) but much more manegable if that was already a deep infection / near peak season (vs. 1% of the population infected).  

Narrator..."They were not".

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The government can borrow more for free right now.

 

The cost of federal stimulus overreaction is, what, inflation up around 4 or 5% for a year? After a decade+ of very low inflation? Not that big of a risk.

The cost of federal stimulus underreaction is massive economic privation and unnecessary suffering and death.

 

 

eta: some initial details on the one-time payments in the Senate bill that will possibly pass today:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/politics/senate-deal-stimulus-checks-coronavirus/index.html

Lawmakers struck a $2 trillion stimulus deal early Wednesday that includes sending checks directly to individuals amid the coronavirus crisis -- but it will likely take until at least May before the money goes out. Under the plan as it was being negotiated, single Americans would receive $1,200, married couples would get $2,400, and parents would see $500 for each child under age 17. However, the payments would start to phase out for individuals with adjusted gross incomes of more than $75,000, and those making more than $99,000 would not qualify at all. The thresholds are doubled for couples. About 90% of Americans would be eligible to receive full or partial payments, according to estimates by the Tax Policy Center. Lawmakers set aside $250 billion for the so-called recovery rebates.

 

checks not going out until May seems pretty far from ideal.

Edited by StrangeSox

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1 hour ago, bmags said:

I assure you that whatever debt crisis would come will not be close to as bad as the unemployment numbers we will see on Thursday.

waste is the least of our worries right now. Better to be wasteful and fast than targeted and slow. 

And 1200 isnt going to save anyone home or job. The jobs are gone. This is going to be the third batch of corporate welfare in 15 years; these same lobbyist are the same who shame people for having safety net benefits.

The system is broken and needs heavy reworking. Throwing 1/3rd of the GDP at the problem with very little revenue income following the massive tax cuts is a disaster. Companies didnt reinvest in their employees or systems/r&d last time - they just did massive stock buy backs and rebuys -and got rich off low interest government loans. 

Convenient capitalism. The same party and lobby who has endlessly pushed to roll back all regulations in the name of "free market capitalism" is the same group of people that put their handout first and take the majority of the distribution.

Breaking news: trickle down economics is fake and 100% does not work. Period. End of story.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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12 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

The government can borrow more for free right now.

 

The cost of federal stimulus overreaction is, what, inflation up around 4 or 5% for a year? After a decade+ of very low inflation? Not that big of a risk.

The cost of federal stimulus underreaction is massive economic privation and unnecessary suffering and death.

 

 

eta: some initial details on the one-time payments in the Senate bill that will possibly pass today:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/politics/senate-deal-stimulus-checks-coronavirus/index.html

Lawmakers struck a $2 trillion stimulus deal early Wednesday that includes sending checks directly to individuals amid the coronavirus crisis -- but it will likely take until at least May before the money goes out. Under the plan as it was being negotiated, single Americans would receive $1,200, married couples would get $2,400, and parents would see $500 for each child under age 17. However, the payments would start to phase out for individuals with adjusted gross incomes of more than $75,000, and those making more than $99,000 would not qualify at all. The thresholds are doubled for couples. About 90% of Americans would be eligible to receive full or partial payments, according to estimates by the Tax Policy Center. Lawmakers set aside $250 billion for the so-called recovery rebates.

 

checks not going out until May seems pretty far from ideal.

Yeah you're talking 2 months without getting income if you were laid off and $1200-$2400 isnt going to pay months of bills.

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