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COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

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1 hour ago, StrangeSox said:

local food banks, generally they prefer cash, would probably be pretty good

 

 

there was some talk of cruise lines being bailed out earlier:

foreign-built boats, registered under foreign flags to avoid US labor and other laws, but will get a cut of that corporate welfare.

 

 

That should absolutely be part of this stimulus. They were able to restrict Trump (and WH and Congressional staff/family) from getting this money, they should also exclude any company that has dodged federal laws/taxes in the last decade. 

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nearly 700 new cases in Illinois today. Hopefully this was with a huge increase in testing, but we are definitely in the exponential growth. Have to hope by next wednesday we start to see some stabilization. 

 

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1 hour ago, pcq said:

My friend The Resurrection begins on Easter.

Trump can talk all he wants about this but states have taken the lead and continue to do so. My guess is if the medical community is saying we're not ready by Easter, Cuomo, Pritzker, Newsom, etc. will extend the shelter-in-place orders. 

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So what's the running theory on why the European countries have such a higher mortality rate than the US? Stronger strain of the virus?

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10 minutes ago, bmags said:

nearly 700 new cases in Illinois today. Hopefully this was with a huge increase in testing, but we are definitely in the exponential growth. Have to hope by next wednesday we start to see some stabilization. 

 

With the shelter in place order taking effect nine days ago, one would expect to see some stablization/decrease in growth over the next week or so.  Those testing positive were most likely exposed 7-14 days ago.

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1 minute ago, Jenksismyhero said:

So what's the running theory on why the European countries have such a higher mortality rate than the US? Stronger strain of the virus?

There might as well be zero data at this point for us idiot-level humans to look at.    Who knows who gets a test in any of these countries and USA doesn’t even test etc.  Mortality rate is pointless without blanket testing for antibodies.  JMO

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Six months or a year from now it will be interesting to see which country's health systems were better equipped to handle this. 

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14 minutes ago, Jenksismyhero said:

So what's the running theory on why the European countries have such a higher mortality rate than the US? Stronger strain of the virus?

Undertesting for sure.  The US death rate is in the 1-1.5 of total cases.  Italy is 10%.  That means they are probably undertesting by a factor of between 6-10 times.

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29 minutes ago, Jenksismyhero said:

Trump can talk all he wants about this but states have taken the lead and continue to do so. My guess is if the medical community is saying we're not ready by Easter, Cuomo, Pritzker, Newsom, etc. will extend the shelter-in-place orders. 

Genuinely curious what happens when States defy his claim that it's ok to come outside and he starts getting really nervous about the economy.   I'm expecting a lot of twitter shit talking towards governors when that bridge is crossed

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7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Undertesting for sure.  The US death rate is in the 1-1.5 of total cases.  Italy is 10%.  That means they are probably undertesting by a factor of between 6-10 times.

Maybe I'm wrong but didn't Italy's mortality rate start climbing once hospitals hit capacity? That's where we're heading, especially in major cities.

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1 minute ago, StrangeSox said:

Maybe I'm wrong but didn't Italy's mortality rate start climbing once hospitals hit capacity? That's where we're heading, especially in major cities.

I can try to work back down the curve, but I feel like Italy's mortality rate has always been WAY high.  Even adjusting for something like age of population, it was very high.

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1 minute ago, Kyyle23 said:

Genuinely curious what happens when States defy his claim that it's ok to come outside and he starts getting really nervous about the economy.   I'm expecting a lot of twitter shit talking towards governors when that bridge is crossed

The numbers will speak for themselves even before Easter that for the most part Trumps efforts to open back up will fall upon deaf ears, if he still is singing that tune. 

But again, for the most part. There will still be his loyal base that doesn't care about numbers. Ever. And will side with him no matter how many are dying.   

 

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We just had a school district update from our Superintendent. In about one week we passed out 25,000 iPads, Chromebooks, and mobile hotspots to students. We've distributed over 100,000 meals. We are pulling coaches from the distribution of meals and tech to allow us back into our classrooms full time. The video that was shown with the parents being so grateful put tears in my eyes. 

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3 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

 

How does that even work? I never thought of this before but is there a national database that all cause of deaths are reported to? 

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1 minute ago, Texsox said:

How does that even work? I never thought of this before but is there a national database that all cause of deaths are reported to? 

States are generally giving daily update press conferences with totals. 

 

This website has a continuously updated state-by-state tracker with source links

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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1 minute ago, StrangeSox said:

States are generally giving daily update press conferences with totals. 

 

This website has a continuously updated state-by-state tracker with source links

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm thinking beyond this. We have stats on how many people die from bee stings, cancer, heart attacks, lightening, etc. 

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47 minutes ago, Jenksismyhero said:

Trump can talk all he wants about this but states have taken the lead and continue to do so. My guess is if the medical community is saying we're not ready by Easter, Cuomo, Pritzker, Newsom, etc. will extend the shelter-in-place orders. 

I have no doubt California is going to stay the course.  

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Ah.

Looks like the CDC compiles county-level data

https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html

Summary:

  

The Underlying Cause of Death data available on WONDER are county-level national mortality and population data spanning the years 1999-2018. Data are based on death certificates for U.S. residents. Each death certificate identifies a single underlying cause of death and demographic data. The number of deaths, crude death rates or age-adjusted death rates, and 95% confidence intervals and standard errors for death rates can be obtained by place of residence (total U.S., region, state and county), age group (single-year-of age, 5-year age groups, 10-year age groups and infant age groups), race, Hispanic ethnicity, gender, year, cause-of-death (4-digit ICD-10 code or group of codes), injury intent and injury mechanism, drug/alcohol induced causes and urbanization categories. Data are also available for place of death, month and week day of death, and whether an autopsy was performed

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Nightmare scenario is we see the heads of the Federal government working in concert with politically friendly media to attack and pressure states to rescind their measures, threaten to cut off federal assistance, or urge noncompliance either directly or indirectly, coupled with politically aligned state Governors insisting that it's still no big deal and that they are Open for Business.

 

Hopefully we either have some sort of miracle hard break where new cases and deaths start dropping and a mid-April timeline actually makes sense medically, or more likely we continue on current trends and the harsh reality quiets down the voices currently advocating for letting a whole bunch of people die.
 

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Tucked into the Senate bill, a $170B tax break giveaway to real estate developers that backdates to 2018 and 2019 losses

 

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Do you mean like the Lt Governor in Texas stating he'd die for the economy? 

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1 hour ago, Jenksismyhero said:

So what's the running theory on why the European countries have such a higher mortality rate than the US? Stronger strain of the virus?

It has seemed that people show peak symptoms 5-7 or so days after infection in most cases but most of the deaths are delayed by about a week, most of the deaths happen something like days 10-14, so we're seeing the cases that were established last week right now, and the deaths will come next week. 

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