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COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

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3 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Every time I see these projections about states likely reaching a peak at some point in the near future, I wonder if the modeling used for that takes into account any potential bounce-back of the virus as it moves to other states or regions. With a number of larger cities being pretty heavily infected now, what happens next of course is this starts hitting smaller towns and rural areas hard too. And their medical facilities are probably even less able to address even small spikes in need for ICU-level care. Add in those more rural states are, in some cases, among the ones stubbornly resisting medical advice and not locking things down, and it seems like you have a perfect formula for this to happen.

 

Until we have testing we're in this fog of war.  Lamentably, the Feds are already acting like this is over and we don't need to expand testing.  It's insane.  As of today the Feds estimate they have tested 64K Americans.  

Maybe Reagan was partially right, the most terrifying words you can here as a American in a crisis are "I'm a GOP POTUS, and I'm here to help you in a natural disaster".

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5 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

It's also believed that it came to the US from Europe via vacation and business travelers rather than directly from Asia.

 

 

 

 

The federal government promised millions of tests almost a month ago. Instead:

 

 

I can't even begin to understand the rationale for this.  The playbook is aggressively test with rapid results to ensure that you are catching people who are asymptomatic.  What - non-corrupt - motive could possibly back the feds ending support for testing sites?

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4 minutes ago, illinilaw08 said:

I can't even begin to understand the rationale for this.  The playbook is aggressively test with rapid results to ensure that you are catching people who are asymptomatic.  What - non-corrupt - motive could possibly back the feds ending support for testing sites?

Instill a false sense of security for short term economic results? Not sure I'd exactly call that non-corrupt but that's my thought process

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47 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Every time I see these projections about states likely reaching a peak at some point in the near future, I wonder if the modeling used for that takes into account any potential bounce-back of the virus as it moves to other states or regions. With a number of larger cities being pretty heavily infected now, what happens next of course is this starts hitting smaller towns and rural areas hard too. And their medical facilities are probably even less able to address even small spikes in need for ICU-level care. Add in those more rural states are, in some cases, among the ones stubbornly resisting medical advice and not locking things down, and it seems like you have a perfect formula for this to happen.

 

That's a big concern for sure. We have such a disjointed and staggered approach and outbreaks. NYC gets this under control, loosens a bit, then people from other hotspots come pouring back in and they have to start all over again.

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In some potentially positive news, there's some researching going into an old tuberculous vaccine called "BCG" that's been administered in different ways in different populations around the world. It's not perfect, but there does seem to be some pretty good correlation with populations who received the vaccine in childhood having much better outcomes and populations who received it in adulthood having better outcomes. Unfortunately for most of us, what appears to be the most helpful variant wasn't given in the US. It's the one given largely in Warsaw Pact and eastern countries.

Some background links:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/09/health/tuberculosis-bcg-vaccine-coronavirus/index.html

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/04/09/world/science-health-world/fewer-coronavirus-deaths-seen-countries-mandate-tuberculosis-vaccine/

a more technical paper on it:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.07.20053272v1

 

Here's a  map of the different BCG vaccine types given in countries, but researches are digging down into whether the vaccine was mandatory or not and at what times.

 

image-1.png?w=960&ssl=1

 

 

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44 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Really bad news if this holds true

 

Basically no let up until a vaccine is widely available.

Just want to point out, people need to be careful of everything they read.  A lot of views that this is because the testing was faulty / inaccurate to begin with vs. "reactivation".  In general the failure rate on the early test was pretty high (as high as 20%).  

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New data out in 20 minutes for illinois. I'm a bit scared for today. Almost hoping any death toll under 100 as a positive.

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1 minute ago, bmags said:

New data out in 20 minutes for illinois. I'm a bit scared for today. Almost hoping any death toll under 100 as a positive.

Problem with looking at deaths is that those numbers are already baked into to data from a few days ago. New hospitalizations is the most telling number imo

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Just now, mqr said:

Problem with looking at deaths is that those numbers are already baked into to data from a few days ago. New hospitalizations is the most telling number imo

Unfortunately we don't get that data often from illinois. I just bake in a 30% to total cases for hospitalization rate. IL has had decent mortality rates, it would be nice if they were pushed lower rather than just ride the higher # of cases from the last week.

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1344 new cases, 66 deaths. I'm a bit relieved. I think we are really starting to plateau. 

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Cook County coroner data shows what you would expect in terms of age and comorbidities for novel coronavirus deaths. Almost all above the age of 55 with underlying health conditions.

They update every day I believe here...   https://datacatalog.cookcountyil.gov/Public-Safety/Medical-Examiner-Case-Archive/cjeq-bs86/data

 

 

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It's looking more and more like Trump will listen to his Fox News friends and ease the social distancing at the end of this month. 

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6 minutes ago, shipps said:

Cook County coroner data shows what you would expect in terms of age and comorbidities for novel coronavirus deaths. Almost all above the age of 55 with underlying health conditions.

They update every day I believe here...   https://datacatalog.cookcountyil.gov/Public-Safety/Medical-Examiner-Case-Archive/cjeq-bs86/data

 

 

jeeze the gender spread is getting huge. 72% male.

edit: nevermind, when i moved to the visualization it opened it up to all deaths.

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We now have eclipsed Minnesota here in Iowa in terms of total cases.

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1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

It's looking more and more like Trump will listen to his Fox News friends and ease the social distancing at the end of this month. 

🤬😡😱

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1 hour ago, Heads22 said:

We now have eclipsed Minnesota here in Iowa in terms of total cases.

That’s pretty incredible...in and of itself.   Nebraska will probably be trending in the same direction with Ricketts.

People just didn’t realize their votes in the past two elections could actually cost them their lives.

https://qctimes.com/news/local/groups-criticize-reynolds-for-declaring-day-of-prayer/article_4e743bdb-0fa6-5411-81fe-f8a5527e1ccc.html#tracking-source=home-top-story

Unsurprisingly, Gov. Reynolds is using the coronavirus situation to sneak in a Day or Prayer that is going to be challenged on the basis of separation of church and state.

Edited by caulfield12
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3 hours ago, bmags said:

jeeze the gender spread is getting huge. 72% male.

edit: nevermind, when i moved to the visualization it opened it up to all deaths.

Hypertension is one of the comorbidities and if you think about that alone, you probably have more men with hypertension than women (I have not actually looked that up, but someone can certainly fact check me on that).  

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How many of you guys will feel comfortable going back to work May 1st?

If the number of deaths per day across the US is still over 100 (it will be, at least into late May and early June) and there’s no widespread testing (including surveillance testing) in your area?

What will be your own personal rule about this, as it pertains to your family?

 
Here in Day 79, it’s almost impossible to imagine NYC...or even the eastern half of the entire country, opening up, however that’s going to be defined, on May 1st.

Especially for those over 50/55 or with preexisting conditions or co-morbidities.

 

Without that testing and relying on “therapeutics”...especially without having any idea what’s going on in these more rural counties, this seems to be ill-conceived at best.  Once again, that more optimistic IHME model with 60,000 deaths is based on social distancing through August 4th.

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3 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

It's looking more and more like Trump will listen to his Fox News friends and ease the social distancing at the end of this month. 

All I can say is that I am sick of Fox News. How many times do they have to be proven wrong before they shut up? 

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17 minutes ago, NWINFan said:

All I can say is that I am sick of Fox News. How many times do they have to be proven wrong before they shut up? 

The response from the “other side” will be “Oh you trust CNN, NBC, The Wall Street Journal and the rest of the LAME STREAM MEDIA?!?” 

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11 minutes ago, Tony said:

The response from the “other side” will be “Oh you trust CNN, NBC, The Wall Street Journal and the rest of the LAME STREAM MEDIA?!?” 

My response is I don’t trust any of them.  Just report the facts and let me form my own opinions.  

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