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Jose Abreu

What do you expect from Eloy in 2020?

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MLB posted a video today that got me thinking:

Eloy hit .267/.315/.513 (.828 OPS, 117 OPS+, 116 wRC+) in a rookie year that was often interrupted by injury, rusty periods following injury, and so on. When he was healthy and recovered from whatever ailment he had been dealing with (as in, ~2 weeks after returning from an IL stint), he was awesome. He seems to have bulked up over the winter, and his swing looks great at the end of that video.

Defense aside (I think he'll improve to the point where he's at least playable), what do you expect from him next year? Something like .270/.320/.500 may be a reasonable baseline, but if he stays healthy, I think he's gonna take a massive leap. I wouldn't be surprised if he puts up .280/.340/.560 with 45 home runs (he was on a 41 home run per 162 pace last year), for example. Is that crazy?

Edited by Jose Abreu
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I'm gonna hate doing this prediction game this year because the first question in reply to any of them is "What's the ball like"? The MLB jumped by nearly 20% last year - if the whole league went down by that much because they stop using the Happy Fun Ball, then you're talking a 34 home run pace instead of a 40 home run pace over 162.

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When I read the thread title, my first thought was, “I’m expecting a huge offensive season...something like 45 bombs and a .900 OPS.”

Then I read your post and saw you had the exact same prediction. Great minds. 

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25 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I'm gonna hate doing this prediction game this year because the first question in reply to any of them is "What's the ball like"? The MLB jumped by nearly 20% last year - if the whole league went down by that much because they stop using the Happy Fun Ball, then you're talking a 34 home run pace instead of a 40 home run pace over 162.

The balls will not be as smooth. Baseballs. 

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1 hour ago, Jose Abreu said:

MLB posted a video today that got me thinking:

Eloy hit .267/.315/.513 (.828 OPS, 117 OPS+, 116 wRC+) in a rookie year that was often interrupted by injury, rusty periods following injury, and so on. When he was healthy and recovered from whatever ailment he had been dealing with (as in, ~2 weeks after returning from an IL stint), he was awesome. He seems to have bulked up over the winter, and his swing looks great at the end of that video.

Defense aside (I think he'll improve to the point where he's at least playable), what do you expect from him next year? Something like .270/.320/.500 may be a reasonable baseline, but if he stays healthy, I think he's gonna take a massive leap. I wouldn't be surprised if he puts up .280/.340/.560 with 45 home runs (he was on a 41 home run per 162 pace last year), for example. Is that crazy?

No it's not crazy at all and frankly you could go even higher in batting average and OBP .

As far as what I expect, just being a little more serious while he still maintains the fun he seems to be having.

He really does need to improve his fielding but I won't ever expect that to be on the plus side but I'd like him to be average.

Hitting  I expect him to be more selective and see if the launch angle thing is right for him. He's a lot like Mazara in that he's a line drive hitter who likes to use the whole field and likes to extend his arms so he's vulnerable to low and away because he likes going to the opposite field. But he hits too many hard hit balls for ground outs .

Once he starts learning to lay off certain pitches and take more walks I think he's capable of huge power numbers.He's already a very good mistake hitter so force the pitchers into making more mistakes and not go after pitchers pitches.

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He's our stud.  Put him at #4 in the lineup and fill in around him.

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Eloy and everybody else in this lineup will be setting personal best in rbi and runs scored.  Runners always on base when you get up to bat and someone behind you that can get you in.  Third base coach might need rotor cuff surgery.😀  As far as Eloy HR's...I think 45 sounds right.

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Judging by his monthly splits I feel that hes going to have a monster year. Definitely can see the early struggle adjusting to MLB pitching, and then the injury in middle of the season. That September was remarkable.

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.280/.340/.540....maybe WRC+ around 130 or so would be a good year 2 at the plate.

Ideally instead of being worth -10 runs in the field if he could cut it to -7 that would be nice. 

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44 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

.280/.340/.540....maybe WRC+ around 130 or so would be a good year 2 at the plate.

Ideally instead of being worth -10 runs in the field if he could cut it to -7 that would be nice. 

That and avoiding stupid injuries by being uncoordinated and/or too gung ho at times in left.  Just keep shit in front of you, make the plays at the wall and down the line, and let Robert handle the power alley.

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.850+ OPS and ~40 bombs.

He needs to pull the ball and elevate more. I think his defense improves a tad as well.  He was ungodly hot in September, so we should see something closer to that than how he was the first couple months. 

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Based on his minor league performance and his 'hot' month in MLB, I'm surprised so many folks have him hitting .280 or under.  He's Miggy.  I expect him to hit over .300 with at least 35 bombs.  Seems with Moncada making HUGE strides last season and Robert on the horizon, the numbers Eloy put up in the minors and late 2019 are being ignored and we're instead focusing on his middling performance when he first came up.  The dude is an absolute stud.  Same as Moncada and Robert, he was a top 3 prospect in all of MLB.  The kid is going to shine brightly.

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9 minutes ago, mmmmmbeeer said:

Based on his minor league performance and his 'hot' month in MLB, I'm surprised so many folks have him hitting .280 or under.  He's Miggy.  I expect him to hit over .300 with at least 35 bombs.  Seems with Moncada making HUGE strides last season and Robert on the horizon, the numbers Eloy put up in the minors and late 2019 are being ignored and we're instead focusing on his middling performance when he first came up.  The dude is an absolute stud.  Same as Moncada and Robert, he was a top 3 prospect in all of MLB.  The kid is going to shine brightly.

Hell yea.  Keep the talkins comin!

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.275/.335/.525 with a wRC+ of ~125

I expect him to be in a close competition between he, Yoan, and Encarnacion to be the best hitter on the White Sox.

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I'll leave a specific power prediction out of it since I think that may be determined by the baseball this year ...

 

However, I am going to put a bit of pressure on Eloy & go .315BA, 350OBP,  95RBI. I think HR should be in the 25-35 range. That's expecting a lot -- but looking at this career MiLB numbers? I don't think we scratched the surface last year. 

 

Also, I want to see less strikeouts and more doubles - let's say 30 doubles and the same 134k's over a full 150 games. 

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34 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

I'll leave a specific power prediction out of it since I think that may be determined by the baseball this year ...

 

However, I am going to put a bit of pressure on Eloy & go .315BA, 350OBP,  95RBI. I think HR should be in the 25-35 range. That's expecting a lot -- but looking at this career MiLB numbers? I don't think we scratched the surface last year. 

 

Also, I want to see less strikeouts and more doubles - let's say 30 doubles and the same 134k's over a full 150 games. 

I agree with this, but remember he only played 120 games or so last year. So I think he can still get to 30-35 homers. I'd like to see a .330 ish OBP and 860-890 ish OPS.

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He hit 31 last year while being injured a ton of games. 25-30 HRs would be a huge power outage.  Even if they change the ball it's not going to really effect players like Eloy with legitimate power too greatly.  

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