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Betts to Dodgers

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1 minute ago, SCCWS said:

Sorry to move away from the Mazara Love/Hate Soap Opera, but the Betts trade is on a temporary hold due to Graterol health questions. There may have to be a work -a-round. 

If anything Boston would be the team to hold it up. The JDM contract had some provisions in it regarding a previous foot injury. Not sure how much the Betts part of the deal is affected. I think they are pleased with that . They have to work out something with the Twins but they think they can work it out.

If not they might go to another 3rd team.

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1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The odds that Steele Walker has as many career plate appearances in the MLB as Mazara has had through his age 24 season is probably 10% or less.

"The odds that ______ has as much of an impact as ______" is probably 10% or less.

Tatis and Shields, Semien and Samardzija, Bassitt and Samardzija, Montas and Frazier, Hudson and Jackson, a pile of money and Teahen. I mean,  you say it enough times and it's got to be correct eventually right?

The flaw in "becoming obsessed with a guy who has limited control and overpaying for him because it's not likely to hurt us" has been so well illustrated that we had to rebuild for 3 years because of it. You're probably correct this time...because that statement can't be wrong every single time we do this trade. 

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Looks like there's a snag in the Pederson deal. His arb hearing isn't done and LAA may not want to take him on if his number is too high, if I'm reaidng this right

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It sounds like there are some obstacles and quite a few moving parts to both of these trades that there is a chance they will fall apart. 

Edited by maloney.adam

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20 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

"The odds that ______ has as much of an impact as ______" is probably 10% or less.

Tatis and Shields, Semien and Samardzija, Bassitt and Samardzija, Montas and Frazier, Hudson and Jackson, a pile of money and Teahen. I mean,  you say it enough times and it's got to be correct eventually right?

The flaw in "becoming obsessed with a guy who has limited control and overpaying for him because it's not likely to hurt us" has been so well illustrated that we had to rebuild for 3 years because of it. You're probably correct this time...because that statement can't be wrong every single time we do this trade. 

So clearly the answer is hang onto every single prospect until they show their ass and are useless to everyone. 

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You are not going to tell me that the Red Sox did not know that the Twins prospect was more likely to be a reliever. I knew that and I have limited knowledge of other teams prospects. Sounds to me like the Red Sox heard the criticism about their return and are getting cold feet or trying to squeeze out a better second piece.

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2 minutes ago, mqr said:

So clearly the answer is hang onto every single prospect until they show their ass and are useless to everyone. 

Frankly, that would have been a better result than what this organization has done for the last decade. But more seriously - -if you're using prospect capital in trades, it should not be low reward trades. When you are bringing back people with limited amounts of control (Betts, Mazara), you ought to be doing so when you are acquiring a key piece or two for a team that is already close enough that this move has a good chance of putting you over the top the very next year. It shouldn't be a "hey maybe this time it'll work out" gamble, and that's the type of move we specialize in.

Betts would have been a great get for us, but even the optimists aren't 100% sure where this team will be next year, so giving up prospect resources for him would be a mistake. Mazara might be a great get for him, but even the optimists aren't saying that he's the guy who was going to put us over the top next year. 

Pederson would have been a great get for us...and the return the Angels have sent to the Dodgers appears so weak that even I couldn't complain about losing it while following that set of rules. 

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2 minutes ago, Orlando said:

You are not going to tell me that the Red Sox did not know that the Twins prospect was more likely to be a reliever. I knew that and I have limited knowledge of other teams prospects. Sounds to me like the Red Sox heard the criticism about their return and are getting cold feet or trying to squeeze out a better second piece.

The articles this morning mentioned both shoulder and elbow issues for Graterol, and if he's got a shoulder problem that I wasn't fully detailed on I might hesitate too. 

Delaying because you got cold feet after you already bit the bullet and announced the trade so that your fans had to see the commentary for 2 days...that'd be silly.

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Its going to be strange business if this falls through but if it means the Twins have to give up more, or another top prospect then im all for it

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40 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

"The odds that ______ has as much of an impact as ______" is probably 10% or less.

Tatis and Shields, Semien and Samardzija, Bassitt and Samardzija, Montas and Frazier, Hudson and Jackson, a pile of money and Teahen. I mean,  you say it enough times and it's got to be correct eventually right?

The flaw in "becoming obsessed with a guy who has limited control and overpaying for him because it's not likely to hurt us" has been so well illustrated that we had to rebuild for 3 years because of it. You're probably correct this time...because that statement can't be wrong every single time we do this trade. 

Yet, I've literally never said it any other time but for this instance pertaining to Walker vs Mazara. All cases should be evaluated on an individual level.  

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15 minutes ago, Orlando said:

You are not going to tell me that the Red Sox did not know that the Twins prospect was more likely to be a reliever. I knew that and I have limited knowledge of other teams prospects. Sounds to me like the Red Sox heard the criticism about their return and are getting cold feet or trying to squeeze out a better second piece.

This would be a real easy way to make every team in baseball reluctant to deal with you. I imagine that Graterols shoulder has not shown up very rosey in his physical after issues with it last year.

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1 hour ago, reiks12 said:

Its going to be strange business if this falls through but if it means the Twins have to give up more, or another top prospect then im all for it

Exactly. This is a win win for 2020 and beyond for Sox. They either have to pony up another prospect or deal falls through - No Maeda for Twins and they have a "damaged" reliever prospect. Good news indeed. 

Edited by EloyJenkins
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16 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

Exactly. This is a win win for 2020 and beyond for Sox. They either have to pony up another prospect or deal falls through - No Maeda for Twins and they have a "damaged" reliever prospect. Good news indeed. 

Pretty much.  This has the potential to damage the Twins quite a bit.  No 3 WAR Maeda and oh yea the guy they tried to trade has a bum arm and now everybody knows it.  Of course it could be they just want some more imaging/testing done and it goes through anyways.  We'll see.

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6 hours ago, Orlando said:

You are not going to tell me that the Red Sox did not know that the Twins prospect was more likely to be a reliever. I knew that and I have limited knowledge of other teams prospects. Sounds to me like the Red Sox heard the criticism about their return and are getting cold feet or trying to squeeze out a better second piece.

 

 

7 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

If anything Boston would be the team to hold it up. The JDM contract had some provisions in it regarding a previous foot injury. Not sure how much the Betts part of the deal is affected. I think they are pleased with that . They have to work out something with the Twins but they think they can work it out.

If not they might go to another 3rd team.

Agree the principles will move and the secondary pieces may have to be adjusted. I would guess Twins will stay as the 3rd team though.   

Edited by SCCWS
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On 2/6/2020 at 10:19 AM, Balta1701 said:

Note that I did not say "There's no development left for Mazara", that's the phrase you made up. In the post you replied to I literally said "Even if it works out this time", I literally left open the possibility you said I ignored. 

Even if there is development left for Mazara, it's giving up the 6 years of control to get a "might get better" guy who we only control for 2 years is the mistake. Because that's what sets it up to bite us. Even if Mazara shows substantial development - he's more expensive next year and then gone. And even if Walker shows no development and this case works out well, the reward is limited because he has only 2 years of control.

That's how you do low reward, moderate risk moves. And yeah, the odds are that this one won't bite us in the tail, but that's because the last several of these have bitten us so badly that we're due for luck.

If Mazara improves he could be extended but we are deep with young OFs. No need for gnashing of teeth. I expect both he and Walker will do well. 

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If the reports are true and Boston thought Gatorade was a starter, but medicals show he is a reliever, why would they still trade with Minny? Unless the twins are willing to really pony up why would you settle for a relief picture after trading away Betts? 

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1 hour ago, pcq said:

If Mazara improves he could be extended but we are deep with young OFs. No need for gnashing of teeth. I expect both he and Walker will do well. 

If Mazara turns out to be a player worth extending, why are we complaining? That means we could probably make a serious run this year and/or next year. 

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On 2/6/2020 at 2:15 PM, chitownsportsfan said:

Pretty much.  This has the potential to damage the Twins quite a bit.  No 3 WAR Maeda and oh yea the guy they tried to trade has a bum arm and now everybody knows it.  Of course it could be they just want some more imaging/testing done and it goes through anyways.  We'll see.

I think the deal will go through anyways but the Twins part could  be excluded. LA will just pony up another prospect or take on more of Price's contract. 

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8 hours ago, SCCWS said:

I think the deal will go through anyways but the Twins part could  be excluded. LA will just pony up another prospect or take on more of Price's contract. 

The Twins were supposed to pony up not phony up. Cuz Twins. 

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14 hours ago, SonofaRoache said:

If Mazara turns out to be a player worth extending, why are we complaining? That means we could probably make a serious run this year and/or next year. 

More years of cheaper control is always better than less.

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