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Y2Jimmy0

Baseball America Top 30 White Sox Prospects

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My BA handbook came in the mail today. It's a very interesting that will look much different than other lists. BA didn't rank: Jake Burger, Lenyn Sosa, Zack Burdi, Tyler Johnson, Bernardo Flores or Cabera Weaver. The list is very young. Luis Robert

1. Luis Robert

2. Andrew Vaughn

3. Michael Kopech

4. Nick Madrigal

5. Matthew Thompson

6. Jonathan Stiever

7. Andrew Dalquist

8. Dane Dunning

9. Blake Rutherford

10. Luis Gonzalez

11. Micker Adolfo

12. Jimmy Lambert

13. Bryce Bush

14. Gavin Sheets

15. Zack Collins

16. Luis Alexander Basabe

17. Konnor Pilkington

18. Yolbert Sanchez

19. James Beard

20. Luis Mieses

21. Bryan Ramos

22. Benyamin Bailey

23. Anderson Comas

24. Damon Gladney

25. Victor Torres

26. Codi Heuer

27. Danny Mendick

28. Jose Rodriguez

29. Ian Hamilton

30. Jefferson Mendoza

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1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Not being able to catch cost him a ton of value but having him behind Sheets is ridiculous. 

Having him below Sheets, Rutherford and Gonzalez is just crazy IMO... and I still really like Rutherford. 

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OTOH, is the question should we be more bearish on our hitters or more bullish on our pitchers?

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Injury history has bumped Adolfo down I see. Talent wise, he's the best OF prospect not named Robert in the system. 

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20 minutes ago, cjgalloway said:

I would take Sheets over Collins for sure..

Yikes.

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1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Collins can get on base and hit home runs.  Sheets can not.  

Sheets hit 16 HR last season while playing his home games in a power-sapping park, and drew walks north of 10%, while playing (slightly) younger than league average age and in his second full pro season. The walk rates have been consistently there, and he has a power track record in college that is just now translating. Yes, he can, do both.

He also strikes out far less often than Collins, who has some serious mechanical issues as a hitter.

If you believe Collins can't catch and is really a 1B/DH, then putting Sheets above him or similar to him is not outlandish. I personally would still have Collins higher, but not by much and that's because I think there is still a chance he can do some catching as part of his presence on a roster.

 

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Collins consistently hits the ball much harder than Sheets.

Collins: 

Avg exit velo velo: 92mph

95+ mph: 50%

105+ mph: 7%

Sheets:

Avg exit velo: 88 mph

95+ mph: 40%

105+ mph: 5%

Collins launch angles are also avg to above avg where Sheets is avg to below avg.  Collins profiles as an avg power hitting 1B whereas Sheets is well below avg.

 

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1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Collins consistently hits the ball much harder than Sheets.

Collins: 

Avg exit velo velo: 92mph

95+ mph: 50%

105+ mph: 7%

Sheets:

Avg exit velo: 88 mph

95+ mph: 40%

105+ mph: 5%

Collins launch angles are also avg to above avg where Sheets is avg to below avg.  Collins profiles as an avg power hitting 1B whereas Sheets is well below avg.

 

OK so we want to go with a different measure than the home runs and walks you previously argued?

I am not a fan of average exit velo myself. Obviously the harder you hit the ball the better, but that's in any given struck ball. Averages, even slotted into groups, don't tend to tell the story with enough reliability. And your stats leave out the fact that Collins just fails to make contact, far more often than Sheets.

You can like Collins better as a prospect, for a number of reasons. But saying Sheets doesn't hit home runs or walk and Collins does is just not accurate.

 

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2 hours ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

OK so we want to go with a different measure than the home runs and walks you previously argued?

I am not a fan of average exit velo myself. Obviously the harder you hit the ball the better, but that's in any given struck ball. Averages, even slotted into groups, don't tend to tell the story with enough reliability. And your stats leave out the fact that Collins just fails to make contact, far more often than Sheets.

You can like Collins better as a prospect, for a number of reasons. But saying Sheets doesn't hit home runs or walk and Collins does is just not accurate.

 

How are you judging their contact rates? I hope not via K/BB rates given that Collins sees far more pitches and works deeper into the count.

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4 hours ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Sheets hit 16 HR last season while playing his home games in a power-sapping park, and drew walks north of 10%, while playing (slightly) younger than league average age and in his second full pro season. The walk rates have been consistently there, and he has a power track record in college that is just now translating. Yes, he can, do both.

He also strikes out far less often than Collins, who has some serious mechanical issues as a hitter.

If you believe Collins can't catch and is really a 1B/DH, then putting Sheets above him or similar to him is not outlandish. I personally would still have Collins higher, but not by much and that's because I think there is still a chance he can do some catching as part of his presence on a roster.

 

Enlighten me to his mechanical issues as a hitter. 

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2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

How are you judging their contact rates? I hope not via K/BB rates given that Collins sees far more pitches and works deeper into the count.

You can actually get deeper into total pitches seen, S&B numbers, and then come up with rates. So it doesn't just have to be K and BB rates. But, K and BB rates get you a final result. Number of pitches seen per AB are important too, but in a different way.

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Enlighten me to his mechanical issues as a hitter. 

I think his load puts him in a flinchy place where he won't come out at the ball consistently. I also think, even after a couple years of tweaks, he's going to be behind significant heat because of the total load. Mind you I only saw him a few times in 2019, and it's possible he's quickened it up and I missed it.

 

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1 minute ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

You can actually get deeper into total pitches seen, S&B numbers, and then come up with rates. So it doesn't just have to be K and BB rates. But, K and BB rates get you a final result. Number of pitches seen per AB are important too, but in a different way.

I think his load puts him in a flinchy place where he won't come out at the ball consistently. I also think, even after a couple years of tweaks, he's going to be behind significant heat because of the total load. Mind you I only saw him a few times in 2019, and it's possible he's quickened it up and I missed it.

 

I think his "hitch" has been greatly exaggerated. It is merely a timing mechanism and he really limited that movement towards the end of last year. Every player has a load/timing mechanism. When I speak of mechanical issues I'm discussing the swing plane, bat in zone time, and shoulder/hand positioning through the ball. A load/hitch really isn't a mechanical issue as much as it's a timing mechanism. 

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3 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

You can actually get deeper into total pitches seen, S&B numbers, and then come up with rates. So it doesn't just have to be K and BB rates. But, K and BB rates get you a final result. Number of pitches seen per AB are important too, but in a different way.

I think his load puts him in a flinchy place where he won't come out at the ball consistently. I also think, even after a couple years of tweaks, he's going to be behind significant heat because of the total load. Mind you I only saw him a few times in 2019, and it's possible he's quickened it up and I missed it.

 

As for your first point, we don't have that data at Birmingham so we can't really judge his swing and miss rates and etc. 

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3 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

I just don't see anything that Sheets really does well. Collins has the potential to do 2 things exceptionally well - walk and hit dongs

You do that in college basketball and you get thrown out of the game.

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On 2/6/2020 at 5:47 PM, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Collins consistently hits the ball much harder than Sheets.

Collins: 

Avg exit velo velo: 92mph

95+ mph: 50%

105+ mph: 7%

Sheets:

Avg exit velo: 88 mph

95+ mph: 40%

105+ mph: 5%

Collins launch angles are also avg to above avg where Sheets is avg to below avg.  Collins profiles as an avg power hitting 1B whereas Sheets is well below avg.

 

Where are those numbers from?

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