Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
bmags

PECOTA 2020

Recommended Posts

I canceled my bp but here is some good news (though I’m partial to ZIPS)

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

is WARP just WAR?

I believe Moncada beats those numbers if he continues to have the exit velo he has. That .267 average is way too low with that in mind, especially when his slugging is .481. Will be interesting to see how his season plays out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm convinced they accidentally switched Moncada and Robert because it makes zero sense. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

is WARP just WAR?

I believe Moncada beats those numbers if he continues to have the exit velo he has. That .267 average is way too low with that in mind, especially when his slugging is .481. Will be interesting to see how his season plays out.

It's BPs version of WAR yes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Robert projected to be a top 25 player in all of baseball.

I don't remember the time when a prospect of ours was predicted to be tops early, and I'm a bit surprised he'd be so much higher than moncada given the similar swing and miss. 

I'll take it!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

It always cracks me up when people get their panties in a bunch over this.  More bulletin board material for the Cubs!

I like pecota/zips for when it thinks young players will do well or older players won't decline that much. But other than that it's helpful for OOTP.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, bmags said:

I don't remember the time when a prospect of ours was predicted to be tops early, and I'm a bit surprised he'd be so much higher than moncada given the similar swing and miss. 

I'll take it!

This has been why I have been so confused on some analytics sites grading Robert low. His projections across the board are absurd for a 22 year old; you don't see 3-4 WAR projections for rookies practically ever.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, bmags said:

I like pecota/zips for when it thinks young players will do well or older players won't decline that much. But other than that it's helpful for OOTP.

Yeah, this adjustment PECOTA made seems to take away some of the penalty for young players that was worked into the models. I like that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cool but I"ll eat my hat if Moncada doesn't have an OBP over 350 one way or another.  He'll regress with the BABIP 20 or so points but I'd imagine this is the year he really refines his strike zone to the best of both world's between swinging away early and going deep into the count and he hits something like 275/360/500

Edited by chitownsportsfan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Cool but I"ll eat my hat if Moncada doesn't have an OBP over 350 one way or another.  He'll regress with the BABIP 20 or so points but I'd imagine this is the year he really refines his strike zone to the best of both world's between swinging away early and going deep into the count and he hits something like 275/360/500

Yeah, that "Mike Trout" growth, where the thing you learn and change the most is your approach and strike zone knowledge - learning to attack only what you can crush. Yoan made the first step of that change last year - he attacked pitches he could crush. The next step is now working counts and drawing walks to the level he did before. Once he combines the two, you're talking about an elite of the elite.

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Cool but I"ll eat my hat if Moncada doesn't have an OBP over 350 one way or another.  He'll regress with the BABIP 20 or so points but I'd imagine this is the year he really refines his strike zone to the best of both world's between swinging away early and going deep into the count and he hits something like 275/360/500

probably still punishing him for first two years / injury penalties. I do worry about how moncada will play through ailments.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, bmags said:

probably still punishing him for first two years / injury penalties. I do worry about how moncada will play through ailments.

I'd like to see him sit a bit more personally.  140 games should be the target and being as close to 100% for those 140 as possible.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, bmags said:

I canceled my bp but here is some good news (though I’m partial to ZIPS)

 

I think Jimenez will be a beast in 2020 with at least 40 home runs if healthy

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I'd like to see him sit a bit more personally.  140 games should be the target and being as close to 100% for those 140 as possible.  

Him and TA. Love the feistiness but no reason to push it. Also very happy Moncada no longer has the flares that send him chasing into the RFer (like at 2b).

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, bmags said:

Him and TA. Love the feistiness but no reason to push it. Also very happy Moncada no longer has the flares that send him chasing into the RFer (like at 2b).

Just make sure there's no electrical boxes in play.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Just make sure there's no electrical boxes in play.

I know I move probably 10% as fast as moncada, but always found it less frightening/mistake prone tracking against the walls then dealing with people running toward. Always felt like when we'd try to avoid we'd end up moving to same spot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Moncada's 2017-18 skew his numbers negatively in the projection systems. There's not enough of a sample size with him for reliable projections. 

Take them all with a grain of salt. 

It wouldn't shock me if he hits .320 with 35 bombs and an OBP approaching .400 this year. All it takes is him refining his plate approach and spitting on pitches(which we already know he can do) more and killing mistakes like he did last year, and all of the sudden he's putting up 8+ WAR seasons. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Moncada's 2017-18 skew his numbers negatively in the projection systems. There's not enough of a sample size with him for reliable projections. 

Take them all with a grain of salt. 

It wouldn't shock me if he hits .320 with 35 bombs and an OBP approaching .400 this year. All it takes is him refining his plate approach and spitting on pitches(which we already know he can do) more and killing mistakes like he did last year, and all of the sudden he's putting up 8+ WAR seasons. 

I have a hard time saying any player will "regularly put up 8 war seasons" but Moncada is probably about one of 10 in baseball that could potentially do that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I have a hard time saying any player will "regularly put up 8 war seasons" but Moncada is probably about one of 10 in baseball that could potentially do that.

There's a reason Mike Trout was just paid half a bill

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×