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Last week without any baseball

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10 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

Shields/Tatis

Shields is a FA still. We could still tilt this out way.

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43 minutes ago, bmags said:

What should we argue about?

Fangraphs' opinion that Moncada isn't anywhere near as good as last year because BABIP. They went as far as to say he hasn't improved at all from 2018 and that his 2019 was a statistical blip. 

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2020-forecast-hitter-babip-decliners/

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21 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Fangraphs' opinion that Moncada isn't anywhere near as good as last year because BABIP. They went as far as to say he hasn't improved at all from 2018 and that his 2019 was a statistical blip. 

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2020-forecast-hitter-babip-decliners/

Eh this doesn't phase me at all. His babip will be lower. He had an amazing year last year, but he's a great player. 

He can mitigate the loss of babip by cutting Krate even more, which is reasonable.

But yeah, I quibble with the "didn't improve at all". His approach meant putting 9% more balls in play (reduced k/reduced BB), but those balls weren't just weak contact he was throwing on the ball. He found more pitches he could hit hard, and it may have been a flukey babip, but he hits the shit out of the ball so good things happen.

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I dont get the babip argument against Moncada, I watched about 80% of his atbats and he murdered the ball. How many bloops and sqiubblers? I dont remember seeing many honestly. 

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2 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

I dont get the babip argument against Moncada, I watched about 80% of his atbats and he murdered the ball. How many bloops and sqiubblers? I dont remember seeing many honestly. 

Quality of contact actually doesn't matter with BABIP luck though. You can absolutely murder baseballs but hit it right at the defender, and it still results in an out. 

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14 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Quality of contact actually doesn't matter with BABIP luck though. You can absolutely murder baseballs but hit it right at the defender, and it still results in an out. 

Yes it does. You can murder the baseball and get an out but it's much more likely to be a hit than soft contact. This is why exit velocity and % line drive are important stats as well.

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19 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Quality of contact actually doesn't matter with BABIP luck though. You can absolutely murder baseballs but hit it right at the defender, and it still results in an out. 

If you hit the ball good and hard, odds are defenders in the infield won't react as well to it, and it will shoot to the outfield before they can catch it. Softly hit balls find defenders much more frequently. 

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4 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

If you hit the ball good and hard, odds are defenders in the infield won't react as well to it, and it will shoot to the outfield before they can catch it. Softly hit balls find defenders much more frequently. 

Not always true. You not only have to hit it hard, you have to hit it where the defenders aren't. sometimes, hitting the ball where the defenders aren't requires hitting the ball softly. 

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5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Not always true. You not only have to hit it hard, you have to hit it where the defenders aren't. sometimes, hitting the ball where the defenders aren't requires hitting the ball softly. 

Go look at a batting average to exit velo chart

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41 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Not always true. You not only have to hit it hard, you have to hit it where the defenders aren't. sometimes, hitting the ball where the defenders aren't requires hitting the ball softly. 

Not always true indeed. But odds are if you crush a baseball consistently you are more likely to achieve success. Just like a pitcher who throws 98 to 100 has a better chance to succeed than one who throw 88 to 90. Every case won't work this way, but odds are odds. 

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39 minutes ago, mqr said:

Go look at a batting average to exit velo chart

I realize that hitting the ball hard helps, but it doesn't always help, and that is my point. It can be mitigated with good defensive positioning. I'd argue that if you're hitting right at defenders, hitting the ball soft enough to drop in front of the outfielder and behind the infielders leads to more hits. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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15 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

Not always true indeed. But odds are if you crush a baseball consistently you are more likely to achieve success. Just like a pitcher who throws 98 to 100 has a better chance to succeed than one who throw 88 to 90. Every case won't work this way, but odds are odds. 

I agree with this statement. 

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14 minutes ago, ChiSoxJon said:

Manfred sucks

If you are looking for something to argue about, I doubt you will get any takers to argue the pro-Manfred side

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All the xBABIP calculators that the fantasy wonks use incorporate some form of "hard hit %" and usually "pull %" and a speed score as well.  If you hit the ball hard, pull it, and can run, you're going to have a high xBABIP and most likely a high BABIP.   For example, iirc when I did Moncada's xBABIP using the free calculator on FanGraphs it was something like .335.  So  yea, he will regress, but it will still be high.

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Statcast xwOBA for Moncada:

2018: .302
2019: .362

Statcast has Moncada’s xBABIP at 0.383

Interesting that it differs so much from Fangraphs' formula, but to say he hardly improved at all from 2018 seems like quite the hot take.

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Oh, I have one! Why do so many people talk about Luis Robert as a "future leadoff man." Just because he is fast?!?

He doesn't walk much and strikes out a lot. He definitely shouldn't be leadoff early in his career until he shows he can hit breaking balls, but even final form Robert makes no sense at leadoff. His OBP won't be ideal unless he is hitting well over .300, and if he is doing that he is going to be smashing 40 home runs a season.

Even if you don't care about walks, Tim Anderson is also fast as hell AND he already proved he can get on base with BA alone by winning the batting crown this year. He isn't my choice (I want Grandal) but I think TA is at least a logical choice to lead off. Putting Robert there is just a waste. 

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17 minutes ago, OmarComing25 said:

Statcast xwOBA for Moncada:

2018: .302
2019: .362

Statcast has Moncada’s xBABIP at 0.383

Interesting that it differs so much from Fangraphs' formula, but to say he hardly improved at all from 2018 seems like quite the hot take.

I trust statcast because that's the data that actual MLB teams use. Given how Moncada destroys baseballs, the statcast number seems more accurate. 

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2 hours ago, wegner said:

If you are looking for something to argue about, I doubt you will get any takers to argue the pro-Manfred side

I’ll try since we have a week!

I’d argue the defense for not punishing players is that it would be really hard and exhausting to do.  
 

As I see it, I think the prosecution has to pick one of two lanes:

Either you bring individual “charges” against those involved or you “blanket charge” everybody.  

The first way sounds impossible.  Investigating each player and their personal involvement?  GMAFB.  Good luck with that investigation taking less than 100 years and actually yielding truth.  Seems to me the prime investigating technique would be: “Hi.  Would any of you like to rat on your teammates?”

 

The other way of a blanket charge seems crazy because if the punishment is severe it’s completely unfair to those that didn’t partake.  But if it’s severe enough, like permanent banning from baseball, i could definitely see it leading to a bunch of the finger-pointing and ratting mentioned above.  And then who determines who is lying at that point?  Seems like you end up with no proof but suspicions, just like the steroids era.  
 

so I think the commissioner probably wanted to punish a few people with permanent bans but there was no way of truly identifying who was involved.  Does 1 time deserve a ban?  Does knowing about it but not saying anything deserve less of a ban?   
 

it’s just too messy.  
 

stripping them of the title sounds nice but it’s not really a punishment.  Seems like a slap on the wrists and won’t stop what’s coming this year.  
 

maybe Manfred has done an okay job with this.  
 

how did I do?

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43 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

Oh, I have one! Why do so many people talk about Luis Robert as a "future leadoff man." Just because he is fast?!?

He doesn't walk much and strikes out a lot. He definitely shouldn't be leadoff early in his career until he shows he can hit breaking balls, but even final form Robert makes no sense at leadoff. His OBP won't be ideal unless he is hitting well over .300, and if he is doing that he is going to be smashing 40 home runs a season.

Even if you don't care about walks, Tim Anderson is also fast as hell AND he already proved he can get on base with BA alone by winning the batting crown this year. He isn't my choice (I want Grandal) but I think TA is at least a logical choice to lead off. Putting Robert there is just a waste. 

I'd go Madrigal, Moncada, Robert, Jimenez, Grandal, Abreu as my top 6

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