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FS: What's Driving Mercedes' Power?

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16 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Collins struck out 27% of the time in the minors last year. Yermin struck out 17% of the time. Collin's contact issues worry me. 

Now there I do agree with you. Collins' contact rate is a significant concern.

 

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59 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Good post!!!

 

59 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Good post!!!

This is a good post... But the thing you're leaving out is that Yermin didn't just do this in AAA... He's done it at EVERY SINGLE LEVEL he has ever played at.. So I think the "just looking at AAA stats" is just wrong.

Edited by cjgalloway

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2 hours ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Seriously? Putting aside that AAA numbers in a vacuum mean very little in predicting major league performance, let's go with your numbers example anyway. Both are players who are nominally catchers but probably more 1B/DH-types long term who can occasionally catch...

  • Player A: Took 260 games over 2.5 years to reach AAA, where he put up a .951 OPS in 88 games at age 24
  • Player B: Took 564 games over 8.5 years to reach AAA, where he put up a 1.033 OPS in 53 games at age 26

Can you not understand the context here? I want Yermin to succeed, he's a fun player and I hope he kicks ass (and he might!). But literally anyone who follows prospects and minor leaguers, as scouts or journalists, will tell you that you cannot just look at someone who mashed in AAA for a half season and assume they will do the same in the majors. The correlation factor there is very small.

Dan Black did the same thing in AAA, at the same age as Yermin (and got there a lot faster). They are even similarly built and both were itinerant catchers. Black never saw the majors. You can make a list with at least one player almost every year in Charlotte who does this, and the great majority either don't see the majors or get there but provide no value.

Further proof? Here's a list of players, year, and age in AAA for the Knights the last 8 years or so, who played some combo of C and/or 1B, and posted strong (let's say mid-800's OPS or better) numbers at age 25+, playing at least a few weeks there (and I'll leave out the ones who had played a lot of MLB before their AAA time)...

  • Matt Skole, 2019, 29, .880 OPS
  • Danny Hayes, 2016, 25, .847 OPS
  • Dan Black, 2015, 27, 1.025 OPS (closest approximation)
  • Andy Wilkins, 2014, 25, .896 OPS
  • Josh Phegley, 2014, 26, .861 OPS
  • Josh Phegley, 2013, 25, .966 OPS
  • Seth Loman, 2013, 27, .861 OPS

What does that list tell you? Some never even made it to the majors. Of the ones who did, only one put up a positive WAR for their career (Phegley). And in Phegley's case he had only about 300 career MiLB games prior to that 2013 explosion. Not 564. Plus he is more legitimately a catcher.

Be very wary of AAA numbers without context. That is why people are pushing back.

Wanting to see someone get a shot in the majors doesn’t mean we’re getting ahead of ourselves. And cherry picking players with a 800+ OPS literally has nothing to do with whether or not Mercedes will be successful or not. Nobody, and I repeat nobody, is saying that he definitely WILL BE successful because of minor league numbers. Only that they think he deserves a chance. It may be you who doesn’t understand the context by evidence of the straw man you built above. 

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Mercedes v Collins is a moot point. Neither one has any business on our 2020 roster.

 

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3 hours ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Be very wary of AAA numbers without context. That is why people are pushing back.

And the context is his AA numbers: he raked while everyone else, nearly to a man, struggled.  

And what about Narvaez...he never hit in the minors, but suddenly rakes in the majors.  Sometimes these guys just blow-up and teams need to be ready when they do.  Dodgers specialize in this stuff.

Edited by GreenSox

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3 hours ago, cjgalloway said:

 

This is a good post... But the thing you're leaving out is that Yermin didn't just do this in AAA... He's done it at EVERY SINGLE LEVEL he has ever played at.. So I think the "just looking at AAA stats" is just wrong.

I was responding specifically to how he has raked at Charlotte. Anyway, it is true he has generally hit well, but his numbers didn't truly get to these mashing-level values until the last year or two.

 

1 hour ago, NCsoxfan said:

Wanting to see someone get a shot in the majors doesn’t mean we’re getting ahead of ourselves. And cherry picking players with a 800+ OPS literally has nothing to do with whether or not Mercedes will be successful or not. Nobody, and I repeat nobody, is saying that he definitely WILL BE successful because of minor league numbers. Only that they think he deserves a chance. It may be you who doesn’t understand the context by evidence of the straw man you built above. 

 

I don't think you know what a straw man is. What I did was show you a list of examples of players whose numerical profiles at AAA for similar positions and ages are not encouraging. That is called comparison. And on the bolded, it was you who talked about him putting up big numbers. That is what I was responding to.

 

55 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

And the context is his AA numbers: he raked while everyone else, nearly to a man, struggled.  

And what about Narvaez...he never hit in the minors, but suddenly rakes in the majors.  Sometimes these guys just blow-up and teams need to be ready when they do.  Dodgers specialize in this stuff.

Of course the opposite happens, in fact that makes the point more deeply. That numbers should only be a small part of the picture when evaluating likely future outcomes for prospects.

Yermin is fine for what he is - the 5th catcher on the depth chart. Emergency depth in AAA with a small possibility of doing something meaningful in the majors value-wise. But the idea of him leaping over any of Grandal, McCann, Collins or Zavala, or any of the 1B/DH candidates either, is being way over-hyped here. It would be a mistake. Not because anyone has a 100% or 0% chance of being good, but because Mercedes' odds are far longer than those other players.

 

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Yermin should have gotten a chance last year but they wasted those at bats on AJ Reed.  I don’t see him getting a chance on this roster. The Sox would be doing him a favor by trading or releasing him but that wouldn’t make much sense for them to do.

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3 hours ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

I was responding specifically to how he has raked at Charlotte. Anyway, it is true he has generally hit well, but his numbers didn't truly get to these mashing-level values until the last year or two.

 

 

I don't think you know what a straw man is. What I did was show you a list of examples of players whose numerical profiles at AAA for similar positions and ages are not encouraging. That is called comparison. And on the bolded, it was you who talked about him putting up big numbers. That is what I was responding to.

 

Of course the opposite happens, in fact that makes the point more deeply. That numbers should only be a small part of the picture when evaluating likely future outcomes for prospects.

Yermin is fine for what he is - the 5th catcher on the depth chart. Emergency depth in AAA with a small possibility of doing something meaningful in the majors value-wise. But the idea of him leaping over any of Grandal, McCann, Collins or Zavala, or any of the 1B/DH candidates either, is being way over-hyped here. It would be a mistake. Not because anyone has a 100% or 0% chance of being good, but because Mercedes' odds are far longer than those other players.

 

Again, you selectively picking players with similar statistics is not a “comparison”. It literally has no predictive ability or signal, thus is useless. The success or failure of those players (and others with very different stats) play no role in the future for Mercedes. You may personally believe it, but it doesn’t make it true. We can all data mine to find things to fit our narrative. 

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9 hours ago, NCsoxfan said:

Again, you selectively picking players with similar statistics is not a “comparison”. It literally has no predictive ability or signal, thus is useless. The success or failure of those players (and others with very different stats) play no role in the future for Mercedes. You may personally believe it, but it doesn’t make it true. We can all data mine to find things to fit our narrative. 

So you have gone from saying Yermin should get a shot because he's put up big numbers, to now saying that those numbers have no predictive ability. Welcome to the dark side!

Also, cherry-picking indicates taking only specific data points that fit. In this case I set specific criteria, all of which line up with the player in question, and listed all players to fit that criteria, using their statistical performance which is the reason you were supporting your argument. I used your argument, and showed you how the same argument played out previously. Now if you want to set an envelope and show me how Mercedes has more than a sliver of a chance of success based on other cases, feel free.

 

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21 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

So you have gone from saying Yermin should get a shot because he's put up big numbers, to now saying that those numbers have no predictive ability. Welcome to the dark side!

Also, cherry-picking indicates taking only specific data points that fit. In this case I set specific criteria, all of which line up with the player in question, and listed all players to fit that criteria, using their statistical performance which is the reason you were supporting your argument. I used your argument, and showed you how the same argument played out previously. Now if you want to set an envelope and show me how Mercedes has more than a sliver of a chance of success based on other cases, feel free.

 

I think he is saying you can't just throw out random names as examples of players who couldn't produce at the MLB because we could just as easily do the opposite.. AKA provide names of former minor leaguers who put up big numbers and continued to in the MLB, specifically non-major prospects (Like Yermin). I am with him, stating bad MLB players who had a good year or two in the minors is not the same. 

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1 minute ago, cjgalloway said:

I think he is saying you can't just throw out random names as examples of players who couldn't produce at the MLB because we could just as easily do the opposite.. AKA provide names of former minor leaguers who put up big numbers and continued to in the MLB, specifically non-major prospects (Like Yermin). I am with him, stating bad MLB players who had a good year or two in the minors is not the same. 

You should probably re-read my post then. Because that is not what I did. I listed, literally, every Sox system player in the last 8 or 9 seasons who fit the general profile of Yermin: late 20's age (25+), C/1B positional slot, big AAA numbers, no former major leaguers. How on earth do you get "random" from that? What you are saying I should have done, is exactly what I did.

On the bolded, do you know why those weren't listed? Because within that profile I just mentioned... there aren't any, other than Phegley, whom I listed. At least on the Sox. I did not look at the other 29 AAA teams but feel free to do so. You will find the same pattern - very few ever do anything meaningful in the majors.

 

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Mercedes on knocking down the damn wall when he got an opportunity:
"I’m thinking about it like I’m the 26th man right now,” Mercedes said. "They’re going to give me the opportunity and I’m going to take it.”Mercedes backed up his words Monday, launching a gargantuan home run and adding a single in the White Sox’s 2-2 tie with the Dodgers at Camelback Ranch.

Look
If you had
One shot
Or one opportunity
To seize everything you ever wanted
In one moment
Would you capture it
Or just let it slip?
Yo
His palms are sweaty, knees weak, arms are heavy
There's vomit on his sweater already, mom's spaghetti
He's nervous, but on the surface he looks calm and ready
To drop bombs, but he keeps on forgettin'
What he wrote down, the whole crowd goes so loud

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16 hours ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Yermin should have gotten a chance last year but they wasted those at bats on AJ Reed.  I don’t see him getting a chance on this roster. The Sox would be doing him a favor by trading or releasing him but that wouldn’t make much sense for them to do.

Not really.  Yermin was in AA when Reed in in the big leagues.  IF anything, Yermin should have gotten Castillo's at bats in September.  

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45 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Not really.  Yermin was in AA when Reed in in the big leagues.  IF anything, Yermin should have gotten Castillo's at bats in September.  

I'm still a little puzzled as to why Yermin didn't get a look last Sept only to be added to the 40 man after the season was over.  Seems like a real missed opportunity.

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On 2/25/2020 at 10:35 AM, ChiSox59 said:

Lol, some people going a bit overboard with the Mercedes love.  He is a guy that may be nice to have around in case of injury, but he isn't a guy you need to move people around to make space for.  

How do you know? We haven't even given him a shot in the majors yet.

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55 minutes ago, ron883 said:

 

LET THE MAN PLAY! Plenty of folks here will be eating crow

I was excited too, unfortunately I was informed by other Soxtalk members that Yermin is unlikely to amount to anything. Supposedly, because previous 25yr old+ AAA players in the Sox organization that have put up .850+ OPS have failed, that Yermin is doomed and we shouldn’t get so excited.


That being said, I’m hoping those in the organization have more sense than this shallow thinking:)

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2 hours ago, ron883 said:

 

LET THE MAN PLAY! Plenty of folks here will be eating crow

I don't think it'snecessary for anyone to eat crow.Everyone here should want every player to do well. I know you get a fair share of grief when Abreu does well but don't you want him to do well ? You shouldn't marry yourself to what seems like a hatred for him at this point. You don't want to be a cliche and let it drown out quality posts you make because you're known as the guy who hates Abreu. It's one thing to speculate on someones future but do you honestly hope he sucks ?

That's the case for those who rank prospects and why you never saw Yermin listed in the Sox top 30 prospects. At some point when 26 yrs. old or so and a career minor leaguer who can pretty much only hit there's no reason to rank  them very highly . It matters not whether they are close to the majors or not. Mendick never got ranked very highly because pedigree means a lot when ranking prospects and if you are drafted after round 10 or so and even if you can field your upside is considered limited. Late bloomers get no love but it's not personal. In order to be considered a top notch prospect evaluator you don't often go out on a limb for guys without pedigree, older guys, bad fielders and round bodies.

This is not believers versus non believers . People who like Yermin like the way he can hit and those who don't just don't see much of a future for him when evaluating him based on how they normally project and rank prospects.

Many of us love Yermin but even we have to admit it'll take a lot of breaks for him to ever get a chance to be a regular DH somewhere.

We can always hope for the best for Yermin but chances are they will be right and not us.

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

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OK, I'll buy into the Garfien love for Mercedes. I suppose that if Madrigal starts at second on Opening day the 26th roster spot might be open for  a third string catcher/pinch hitter.  

Sox trivia:    In the mid-sixties, the Sox had a second string catcher who was used in that role - Smokey Burgess. He  did not have power but  he was a clutch hitter. That kept him in the league until he was 40 years old. 

If Mercedes keeps dropping bombs on the outfield knoll at Camelback, maybe just maybe he finally makes it to the bigs. That would be amazing and fun to watch. You have to love that Juan Uribe maximum effort swing.

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Yermin looks to have a good approach at the plate. He is a great bat to have on the bench looking for some late inning power.

 

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He is not hurting his stock but as a pinch hitter, besides Mazarra vs a LHP and whoever is at second, who else would he pinch hit for?  It may be worth a shot and he could be dh insurance if someone is injured.  He probably is improving his trade value if nothing else.  I also wish he had gotten an opportunity last year.  

I still think it is possible he has a role next year if McCann and EE don't come back.  No guarantee Vaughn is ready, injuries happen etc.  

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YM has a serious shot at 26 because he has shown serious hitting skills. Given his age there is no concern about his development or pt. Just roll with it.

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8 hours ago, HoosierSox said:

Yermin looks to have a good approach at the plate. He is a great bat to have on the bench looking for some late inning power.

 

And what if we give him a chance and rakes in the majors, is still just going to be a bat off the bench if he is one of our best hitters? People are assuming he is not the real deal but we won't know unless we give him a chance. 

Edited by JuliusO1274
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