Keith Law's Top 100 for 2020

[bmags]

Yeah so I'm going to go ahead and stay out of this thread.

6. Robert

16. Kopech

28. Vaughn

fin

https://theathletic.com/1627163/2020/02/24/keith-laws-top-100-prospects-for-2020/

(despite the discourse that will becoming, it was an interesting list. And he has certainly put his chips in with Corbin Carroll still.)

[SoxAce]

Law not a fan of Madrigal confirmed. 

[Y2Jimmy0]

Keith Law thinks Nick Madrigal is a regular but doesn't believe in the profile. He thinks he is David Eckstein basically which is why he's not ranked. He didn't even have him as a top 20 draft prospect in 2018. These are some stellar write-ups on Luis Robert, Michael Kopech and Andrew Vaughn though. Law has always been the highest in the industry on Kopech and that hasn't changed. He never wavered on Lucas Giolito either and that has paid off. 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

I love Keith Law.

[oldsox]

When Law went from ESPN to The Athletic, was that a step up or a step down?

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Keith Law thinks Nick Madrigal is a regular but doesn't believe in the profile. He thinks he is David Eckstein basically which is why he's not ranked. He didn't even have him as a top 20 draft prospect in 2018. These are some stellar write-ups on Luis Robert, Michael Kopech and Andrew Vaughn though. Law has always been the highest in the industry on Kopech and that hasn't changed. He never wavered on Lucas Giolito either and that has paid off. 

Eckstein had 17 career fWAR. If law thinks madrigal would have 17 career war and didn't put him in the top 100 he's a bigger dumass than I already thought.

Law with Hunter Greene 30th still but doesn't have Madrigal ranked. Classic Law

And you're exactly right. Law is stubborn both ways. Madrigal he didnt like in the draft and despite him having a very good year last year in pro ball, law will never change his mind or opinion.

Edited February 24, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Also Robert graded out better than pache defensively last year but people still love to imply pache is easily a better defender. Robert was the second best defensive player in milb last year.

[GreenSox]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Eckstein had 17 career fWAR. If law thinks madrigal would have 17 career war and didn't put him in the top 100 he's a bigger dumass than I already thought.

 

The goal of Top 100s, not to mention top 5 picks, is much higher than Eckstein.  Eckstein level would be a big disappointment. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

7 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

The goal of Top 100s, not to mention top 5 picks, is much higher than Eckstein.  Eckstein level would be a big disappointment. 

The projection of guys at the back end of the top 100 is about 10 career fWAR.

1-3 (30-40+) 60-80FV

3-10 (25+) 55-60 FV

11-40 (20+) 50-55 FV

40-80 (15+) 50 FV

80-100 (10+) 45-50 FV

Those are the projected career WAR's - roughly - based on the FV's. If you think Madrigal fits in at 15+, he falls into the 50FV bracket. Those are median projections.

Edited February 24, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[thxfrthmmrs]

50 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

The goal of Top 100s, not to mention top 5 picks, is much higher than Eckstein.  Eckstein level would be a big disappointment. 

That's how top 100 list works, ever.

[mqr]

51 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

The goal of Top 100s, not to mention top 5 picks, is much higher than Eckstein.  Eckstein level would be a big disappointment. 

I bet less than 30% of the current top 100 will be meaningfully better than David Eckstein. 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

9 minutes ago, mqr said:

I bet less than 30% of the current top 100 will be meaningfully better than David Eckstein. 

but they all have the potential to be and that's the point.  It's a list of players who have the talent/tools to be great not a list of players who have the talent/tools to be average.  

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

34 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

but they all have the potential to be and that's the point.  It's a list of players who have the talent/tools to be great not a list of players who have the talent/tools to be average.  

LOL at the top 100 is a list of 100 players who could be a great. That is comical. 

[BamaDoc]

Law qualifies his rankings with comments that he rewards higher ceilings  more than  floors.  I guess because of power projections, he penalizes Madrigal.  His take.  We all get to have our own.  He was never that high on Chris Sale either due to injury concerns.  Win some lose some.......hope he loses big on Madrigal ala Sale!

[bmags]

Do people want these lists to just confirm what they believe or tell them something new? Is Law a crank when he stays with Giolito despite performance or when he leaves off Madrigal (despite never being much of a fan)?

These lists are more fun to let you know about players you can't get many looks at...that's not madrigal. We know a lot about him and what he needs to succeed. We don't really need a writer to tell us more.

[ptatc]

17 minutes ago, bmags said:

Do people want these lists to just confirm what they believe or tell them something new? Is Law a crank when he stays with Giolito despite performance or when he leaves off Madrigal (despite never being much of a fan)?

These lists are more fun to let you know about players you can't get many looks at...that's not madrigal. We know a lot about him and what he needs to succeed. We don't really need a writer to tell us more.

Theoretically he is paid to be an expert on these players whereas we are just fans and don't make our living evaluating these players. 

So, yes his opinion and evaluation should mean more especially for people who pay for his opinion by subscribing to the publication.

[turnin' two]

Law's responses to some of the questions asked of him about Madrigal, are very, well Stone-esque.  

[TomPickle]

I would be totally fine with Madrigal not making the list if Evan White also didn't make the list. White is just the first baseman version of Madrigal.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

20 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Law's responses to some of the questions asked of him about Madrigal, are very, well Stone-esque.  

I will say this about Law, he is one of the most sensitive members of the media.

Keith Law is the only person/thing/site on all of the internet who has ever blocked me from participating in discussions. I have never attacked Law, or said anything personal, and frankly I rarely ever interacted with him. If you disagree with Keith, he will likely block you regardless of how cordial you are and how well thought out your responses are. That is my one and only beef with someone like Law. If you want to put your opinions out there, and frequently go against consensus, you should be prepared to support your opinions and express them without anger.

[bmags]

57 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Theoretically he is paid to be an expert on these players whereas we are just fans and don't make our living evaluating these players. 

So, yes his opinion and evaluation should mean more especially for people who pay for his opinion by subscribing to the publication.

There have been plenty of experts who have written him, a highly visible college and minor league career, and law's previous writings. Madrigal is about to be up and be the real validation on whether his style of play can translate, Law giving a thumbs up or thumbs down doesn't change much of any known variables at this point.

But by all means, scream into the void.

[NorthSideSox72]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I will say this about Law, he is one of the most sensitive members of the media.

Keith Law is the only person/thing/site on all of the internet who has ever blocked me from participating in discussions. I have never attacked Law, or said anything personal, and frankly I rarely ever interacted with him. If you disagree with Keith, he will likely block you regardless of how cordial you are and how well thought out your responses are. That is my one and only beef with someone like Law. If you want to put your opinions out there, and frequently go against consensus, you should be prepared to support your opinions and express them without anger.

He does get defensive, but I am surprised he blocked you. I once dressed him down on something where he was factually wrong (he laughably suggested that minor league teams were high-profit businesses), we had a big back and forth on Twitter that lots of people reacted to, and in the end we cooled it down. He didn't block me, in fact we interacted multiple times after that.

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

He does get defensive, but I am surprised he blocked you. I once dressed him down on something where he was factually wrong (he laughably suggested that minor league teams were high-profit businesses), we had a big back and forth on Twitter that lots of people reacted to, and in the end we cooled it down. He didn't block me, in fact we interacted multiple times after that.

 

I found it odd as well, and actually had no idea he blocked me until he was quoted in something else and I couldn't read it. Given that I never attack people personally, and don't make anything more than just a debate of facts/merit, maybe Keith was just having a bad day. 

[Dominikk85]

6 hours ago, GreenSox said:

The goal of Top 100s, not to mention top 5 picks, is much higher than Eckstein.  Eckstein level would be a big disappointment. 

Not every top100 is created equal. That is the beauty of the FV system.  10 years ago anyone hoped any top100 must become a star but now we can differentiate that better.

For a top15 prospect (60 fv) 17 career war is a disappointment but for a 70-100 ranked guy 17 war is a decent result.

Basically you expect a 50 fv to average 2 war in his prime years (with sone fluctuation of course) while you expect a top15 prospect to be a star and average like 4 war in their prime.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

Correct.  Law's list is tools driven.  Fangraphs tries to lean more towards tools but they also scout the stat line .  BP is obviously stats driven.  I have no idea what drives MLB Pipeline's list other than draft position and whoever actually answers Callis' phone calls.  

[ptatc]

4 hours ago, bmags said:

There have been plenty of experts who have written him, a highly visible college and minor league career, and law's previous writings. Madrigal is about to be up and be the real validation on whether his style of play can translate, Law giving a thumbs up or thumbs down doesn't change much of any known variables at this point.

But by all means, scream into the void.

I'm not. It really doesnt matter to me.  I'm just saying it's his job so you just discounting people valuing an expert's opinion is a little over the top. But maybe you do have a better handle on it than them.