Spring Training Canceled, Season PPD 2 Weeks, IL Gov Recommending May 1st

[fathom]

2 hours ago, SonofaRoache said:

There will be no baseball this year. The Government is saying even with social distancing going through June, 100k people will die from Coronavirus by August. We were unprepared and incompetent leadership screwed us over. 

Agree with you, hard to imagine any baseball this year. If there’s a second wave come the Fall as predicted, there won’t be any football as well.

[chitownsportsfan]

There will be sports.  Once the testing is widespread enough they'll start up again.  No fans until fall or a vaccine but they will be playing games by middle of June, almost guaranteed.  Honestly if I'm Manfred my entire focus would be hiring a crack team of medical pros and logistics folks to get this sport going in 60 days.  Restart Spring Training May 1st and season starts with daily player testing in June.

[hogan873]

32 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

There will be sports.  Once the testing is widespread enough they'll start up again.  No fans until fall or a vaccine but they will be playing games by middle of June, almost guaranteed.  Honestly if I'm Manfred my entire focus would be hiring a crack team of medical pros and logistics folks to get this sport going in 60 days.  Restart Spring Training May 1st and season starts with daily player testing in June.

The next 30 days will be crucial.  If we see the social distancing making a significant difference, and more testing is available, I could see baseball starting back up with closed spring training at home parks by mid-May.  From everything I've read and seen, it's all about testing.  The more testing available, the better chance we have at starting to return normal...or whatever the new normal will be.

[mqr]

37 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

There will be sports.  Once the testing is widespread enough they'll start up again.  No fans until fall or a vaccine but they will be playing games by middle of June, almost guaranteed.  Honestly if I'm Manfred my entire focus would be hiring a crack team of medical pros and logistics folks to get this sport going in 60 days.  Restart Spring Training May 1st and season starts with daily player testing in June.

Idk man, the country is still way too fractured in how this is being handled. 

[SCCWS]

1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

There will be sports.  Once the testing is widespread enough they'll start up again.  No fans until fall or a vaccine but they will be playing games by middle of June, almost guaranteed.  Honestly if I'm Manfred my entire focus would be hiring a crack team of medical pros and logistics folks to get this sport going in 60 days.  Restart Spring Training May 1st and season starts with daily player testing in June.

There will be sports but I doubt we will see MLB in 2020. If the 2nd round comes next fall and it is controlled, then I think the winter sports will start their seasons around November 1st. 

[mqr]

Toronto just banned public events until June 30. So I would set your expectations around that. 

Can't say I necessarily agree with setting dates out that far. Not that I think it won't ultimately be necessary, but why not take it a few weeks at a time? 

Edited March 31, 2020 by mqr

[chitownsportsfan]

14 minutes ago, mqr said:

Toronto just banned public events until June 30. So I would set your expectations around that. 

Can't say I necessarily agree with setting dates out that far. Not that I think it won't ultimately be necessary, but why not take it a few weeks at a time? 

Yea better to over-react than under-react but no need to push it out that far right now.

[Jack Parkman]

36 minutes ago, mqr said:

Toronto just banned public events until June 30. So I would set your expectations around that. 

Can't say I necessarily agree with setting dates out that far. Not that I think it won't ultimately be necessary, but why not take it a few weeks at a time? 

This is the death blow to the MLB season. I can't possibly see how they can have a season when the earliest they can start is July 1st. 

Guys, as much as I hate to say this, the best case scenario for sports is for there to be a 120 game MLB season starting in June 2021. 

I believe all sports will miss the 2020 or 2020-21 seasons. 

Edited March 31, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[ron883]

17 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

This is the death blow to the MLB season. I can't possibly see how they can have a season when the earliest they can start is July 1st. 

Guys, as much as I hate to say this, the best case scenario for sports is for there to be a 120 game MLB season starting in June 2021. 

I believe all sports will miss the 2020 or 2020-21 seasons. 

Why June of 2021? Over a year from now?

[mqr]

18 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

This is the death blow to the MLB season. I can't possibly see how they can have a season when the earliest they can start is July 1st. 

Guys, as much as I hate to say this, the best case scenario for sports is for there to be a 120 game MLB season starting in June 2021. 

I believe all sports will miss the 2020 or 2020-21 seasons. 

Could pretty easily have a four month season and playoffs in November in this scenario. 

[Jack Parkman]

7 minutes ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

Why June of 2021? Over a year from now?

Because I don't believe public gatherings will be allowed until there is a vaccine, and it proves effective. 

They said in February that 12-18 months was a best case scenario for a vaccine. It may be even longer than that. 

As soon as these social distancing measures are lifted, COVID 19 roars back.

There being baseball in 2021 is like a best case scenario. 

In a realistic scenario, sports return some time in 2022. 

I honestly don't think our current predicament is going to last weeks or months, but years. 

I'm not expecting anything to be normal until 2022 at the earliest. 

Edited March 31, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[hogan873]

3 minutes ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

Why June of 2021? Over a year from now?

I think the end of June ban might be overkill, but no one knows what will happen over the next month.  If things still look grim at the end of April, I'd be more apt to believe sports may not happen.  I still think they will do everything in their power to have a season, shortened or not.

[hogan873]

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Because I don't believe public gatherings will be allowed until there is a vaccine, and it proves effective. 

They said in February that 12-18 months was a best case scenario for a vaccine. It may be even longer than that. 

As soon as these social distancing measures are lifted, COVID 19 roars back. 

It's not the vaccine that will be the decision maker.  It's all about testing.  Mass-testing has to be available...that and the social distancing needs to show that it's flattening the curve.

[mqr]

47 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Yea better to over-react than under-react but no need to push it out that far right now.

It feels assumption-driven rather than by evidence. 

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

It's not the vaccine that will be the decision maker.  It's all about testing.  Mass-testing has to be available...that and the social distancing needs to show that it's flattening the curve.

This is the killer...they need to test everyone weekly. 

There's no way that anything could possibly be safe unless they've tested everyone...like once a week. Mass testing has gone beyond the point of feasibility. 

Edited March 31, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, mqr said:

It feels assumption-driven rather than by evidence. 

If you look at the data there is no spot in North America that has even reached the peak of the curve yet, even NY. 

The peak is still 2-4 weeks away in most places, in the most optimistic scenarios. 

Edited March 31, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, mqr said:

It feels assumption-driven rather than by evidence. 

Seeing as the length of the Wuhan lockdown is supposed to be 11 weeks, that seems to be a pretty good starting point, especially since our lockdown doesn't look nearly like China's.

[mqr]

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

If you look at the data there is no spot in North America that has even reached the peak of the curve yet, even NY. 

That's an assumption. New cases could start to level off tomorrow for all we know. I certainly wouldn't bet on it, but it's entire possible the peak isn't that far away. 

Edited March 31, 2020 by mqr

[mqr]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Seeing as the length of the Wuhan lockdown is supposed to be 11 weeks, that seems to be a pretty good starting point, especially since our lockdown doesn't look nearly like China's.

I don't necessarily disagree, but we don't know to what degree the Chinese measures were actually necessary. The west coast seems to be coping without going that far, NY not so much. 

Edited March 31, 2020 by mqr

[SonofaRoache]

I'll say it again, if 100k people die from the virus, Baseball probably won't play out of respect to a national disaster. It's not about testing people and finding vaccines, the optics would be terrible. If 100k, the low end side of deaths is not the reality, and say 200k people die, then football will be canceled too. 

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Seeing as the length of the Wuhan lockdown is supposed to be 11 weeks, that seems to be a pretty good starting point, especially since our lockdown doesn't look nearly like China's.

Right, and because our lockdown isn't a strict don't leave your house for any reason whatsoever, its going to take longer. I's say 4 months is a bare minimum, if you put it into perspective that's July 15th. It's more likely to be 6 months. 

 

In order to keep R<1.0, basically the only difference between now and what can be opened are restaurants and schools, and restaurants have to be limited to under 50 ppl at a time. 

 

EDIT: With the scientific community pushing back on 12-18 months for a vaccine, and a more realistic timeframe being 12-18 years, I don't see how we can function as a society anymore. This thing is really apocalyptic. 

Nothing will ever be the same. 

Edited March 31, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[SonofaRoache]

2 minutes ago, mqr said:

That's an assumption. New cases could start to level off tomorrow for all we know. I certainly wouldn't bet on it, but it's entire possible the peak isn't that far away. 

This is true, but the experts doubt it. They are saying we'd be fortunate to only lose 100k people. We all hope for the best but not trusting the experts would be a huge mistake. I see social distancing going through June 30th and shelter in places through April, with a little more leniency in May and June. 

[mqr]

Just now, SonofaRoache said:

This is true, but the experts doubt it. They are saying we'd be fortunate to only lose 100k people. We all hope for the best but not trusting the experts would be a huge mistake. I see social distancing going through June 30th and shelter in places through April, with a little more leniency in May and June. 

I'm not advocating for starting things back up, just for taking things a handful of weeks at time as opposed to three months. 

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, mqr said:

I don't necessarily disagree, but we don't know to what degree the Chinese measures were actually necessary. The west coast seems to be coping without going that far, NY not so much. 

Washington state had a very bad early outbreak, and isn't nearly done with this.  California is still accelerating up the curve.

[Blackout Friday]

I’m not 100%, but I believe the June 30 date means the city won’t be approving any permits for public gatherings before that date. If the virus miraculously disappears (not bloody likely) before then, I believe the Jays will be good to go. 
 

I’ll try to dig more into this but I think that’s the deal. 
 

Edit: Nevermind, I think it’s both. 

Edited March 31, 2020 by Blackout Friday