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Will There Be a 2020 Season?

Will there be a 2020 season? And if so, what will it look like?  

147 members have voted

  1. 1. What do you THINK is going to happen?

    • Season is cancelled
      59
    • Season starts in June with all teams in AZ. No fans all season.
      10
    • Season starts in June with teams at spring training facilities. No fans all season.
      14
    • Season starts in June either in AZ or spring training sites, and limited attendance is eventually allowed by late summer
      21
    • Season starts in June/July at home parks with no fans all season
      19
    • Season starts in June/July at home parks. Limited attendance is eventually allowed by late summer.
      22
    • Another scenario...leave some comments
      2


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17 hours ago, Baker said:

Carlos Rodon’s career is in real jeopardy with all the injuries he has had. He probably could have gotten $100M ,  4 years ago on an extension. Sure Boras works for him and sure Boras has been pumping him up for a big payday in free agency. Boras can afford a few busts, whereas the individual could lose generational wealth. 

Based on Sox history,  notice they don't seem to sign many pitchers to these kind of deals. If they do, it is early and for a lot less money. 

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I'm surprised that the players are going to turn this down honestly. It doesn't make sense for them. They think they should get more than 60 games prorated in exchange for expanded playoffs, etc. I don't think they'll win a grievance though. 

If they agree to a deal: players get 60 games full prorated (37% of salary), universal DH (extra jobs), two years of expanded playoffs (some money for playoffs), keep some of the advance from March, not allowed to file a grievance. 

 

If they don't agree to deal: Rob Manfred imposes season around 54 games (33% of salary), no universal DH, regular playoffs (players don't get paid), return the advance from March, they can file a grievance that owners didn't negotiate in good faith. 

The owners were worried about this grievance. After the players most recent proposal though, I think they'd lose the grievance. MLB has consistently said season must end on September 27th due to COVID-19 concerns. I think that's mostly bullshit and it's about FOX tv deal. The players proposed 70 games though which was scheduled to go longer than September 27th which is the date that MLB's health experts recommended. I think by the owners turning down that deal and not countering, it allows them to win a grievance based on the fact that players weren't being reasonable by trying to go longer than what MLB's medical experts have proposed. 

MLBPA must feel otherwise. They have to think they can win this grievance. I think the owners would cancel the season in that case though. 

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The longer the season the better chance of it turning into a Covid circus with teams decimated by illnesses trying to field a team. 

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6 minutes ago, Texsox said:

The longer the season the better chance of it turning into a Covid circus with teams decimated by illnesses trying to field a team. 

For sure. MLB just wants to get to the post-season ASAP. It's where the owners make the most money and they think they can come up with a bubble plan if necessary to get the games played. 

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Let's just play a double elimination tournament and call it a year. I might only be half joking. Looking at the college programs, Trumps staff for the rally, etc all with multiples of infected people and all I can think is why try? 

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1 hour ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I'm surprised that the players are going to turn this down honestly. It doesn't make sense for them. They think they should get more than 60 games prorated in exchange for expanded playoffs, etc. I don't think they'll win a grievance though. 

If they agree to a deal: players get 60 games full prorated (37% of salary), universal DH (extra jobs), two years of expanded playoffs (some money for playoffs), keep some of the advance from March, not allowed to file a grievance. 

 

If they don't agree to deal: Rob Manfred imposes season around 54 games (33% of salary), no universal DH, regular playoffs (players don't get paid), return the advance from March, they can file a grievance that owners didn't negotiate in good faith. 

The owners were worried about this grievance. After the players most recent proposal though, I think they'd lose the grievance. MLB has consistently said season must end on September 27th due to COVID-19 concerns. I think that's mostly bullshit and it's about FOX tv deal. The players proposed 70 games though which was scheduled to go longer than September 27th which is the date that MLB's health experts recommended. I think by the owners turning down that deal and not countering, it allows them to win a grievance based on the fact that players weren't being reasonable by trying to go longer than what MLB's medical experts have proposed. 

MLBPA must feel otherwise. They have to think they can win this grievance. I think the owners would cancel the season in that case though. 

If the players turn this down (which looks like that's what's gonna happen) I bet the season is cancelled over the owners not wanting to go to court, and are probably sick of dicking around with this whole thing.

Edited by ScooterMcGee

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1 minute ago, ScooterMcGee said:

If the players turn this down (which looks like that's what's gonna happen) I bet the season is cancelled over the owners not wanting to go to court, and are probaboy sick of dicking around with this whole thing.

Heyman said that's unlikely which makes me believe the owners think they'd win a grievance. 

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2 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Heyman said that's unlikely which makes me believe the owners think they'd win a grievance. 

I don’t see the players as being in a very strong position for a grievance anymore, am pretty surprised at them turning this down.

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52 minutes ago, bmags said:

I don’t see the players as being in a very strong position for a grievance anymore, am pretty surprised at them turning this down.

Yup

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4 hours ago, Texsox said:

Twenty games and a outbreak ends the season. 

If/when players and coaches report, I think every team will have such a large number of positive cases it'll make playing unfeasible. I hope to be wrong, but playing sports in America doesn't seem possible right now unless it's in a bubble scenario.

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8 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

If/when players and coaches report, I think every team will have such a large number of positive cases it'll make playing unfeasible. I hope to be wrong, but playing sports in America doesn't seem possible right now unless it's in a bubble scenario.

It’s very possible in pockets of the country. If every game were in Chicago/Milwaukee and NY area, they’d probably be fine actually 

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14 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

If/when players and coaches report, I think every team will have such a large number of positive cases it'll make playing unfeasible. I hope to be wrong, but playing sports in America doesn't seem possible right now unless it's in a bubble scenario.

Well we still don’t know anything about the virus.  It’s possible that most of the MLB players could become positive and never have a single person get sick or require hospitalization.  
 

What’s likely is something in between. If every player got infected at once, some would probably get sick.  It’s hard to say, simply statistically, if any would require hospitalization.  
 

I would lean towards probably not but of course I’m just speculating, just like anybody who takes a counter opinion to what I’m saying.  It’s all speculation.  

This is definitely a giant mess any way you slice it.  The science just isn’t there to even suggest a course of action yet outside of a bubble.  

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18 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Well we still don’t know anything about the virus.  It’s possible that most of the MLB players could become positive and never have a single person get sick or require hospitalization.  
 

What’s likely is something in between. If every player got infected at once, some would probably get sick.  It’s hard to say, simply statistically, if any would require hospitalization.  
 

I would lean towards probably not but of course I’m just speculating, just like anybody who takes a counter opinion to what I’m saying.  It’s all speculation.  

This is definitely a giant mess any way you slice it.  The science just isn’t there to even suggest a course of action yet outside of a bubble.  

Well, we’re already seeing multiple cases of top NCAA FB teams with 15-25 team members testing positive...the virus doesn’t care about your politics, or if you trust science over gut instincts and intuition or not.  It simply looks for available/vulnerable hosts to infect.

If we’re not following any of the CDC guidelines or attempting to enforce them, then why do they exist, exactly?

Washington State was perhaps the national model of how to handle this in the beginning.  Now Yakima hospitals are being overrun, months later.

https://www.yakimaherald.com/special_projects/coronavirus/yakima-county-hospitals-exceed-capacity-report-critical-staffing-shortages/article_9e24ab98-dd28-5bd4-a829-8dce719f251d.html

 

Edited by caulfield12

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23 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Well, we’re already seeing multiple cases of top NCAA FB teams with 15-25 team members testing positive...the virus doesn’t care about your politics, or if you trust science over gut instincts and intuition or not.  It simply looks for available/vulnerable hosts to infect.

If we’re not following any of the CDC guidelines or attempting to enforce them, then why do they exist, exactly?

Washington State was perhaps the national model of how to handle this in the beginning.  Now Yakima hospitals are being overrun, months later.

https://www.yakimaherald.com/special_projects/coronavirus/yakima-county-hospitals-exceed-capacity-report-critical-staffing-shortages/article_9e24ab98-dd28-5bd4-a829-8dce719f251d.html

 

Not everyday you hear of that place... lived right by it years ago in a small town called Pe Ell 😆

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21 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Not everyday you hear of that place... lived right by it years ago in a small town called Pe Ell 😆

Sounds like a character from Star Wars.

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2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Sounds like a character from Star Wars.

Old Indian name, pronounced P L. Very interesting place out in the middle of nowhere. Olympic National Forest.
 

We had a 14 acre farm outside of town, tiny place called McCormick Creek. Population 13.

When we left, population became 11 people. 😆

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5 hours ago, Jerksticks said:

Well we still don’t know anything about the virus.  It’s possible that most of the MLB players could become positive and never have a single person get sick or require hospitalization.  
 

What’s likely is something in between. If every player got infected at once, some would probably get sick.  It’s hard to say, simply statistically, if any would require hospitalization.  
 

I would lean towards probably not but of course I’m just speculating, just like anybody who takes a counter opinion to what I’m saying.  It’s all speculation.  

This is definitely a giant mess any way you slice it.  The science just isn’t there to even suggest a course of action yet outside of a bubble.  

Somewhat nonsurprisingly, in fact not surprisingly at all, i've been sitting here watching people say their 30 year old healthy relative died from this on twitter and just waiting for someone (basically you, tinfoil hat person) to make this point. It's focused in people who have compounding issues, but if you take an average across the age group in the recent CDC data you can estimate a death rate for the 20-39 age group that covers MLB. Basically the rule with this bug seems to be once your lungs are fully developed the death rate is 0.45% (4 or more times the flu) until you get to the 80 year old population where it skyrockets and kills everyone. 

blog_covid19_cdc_cases_by_age.gif 

IF MLB has a lower rate of people with underlying conditions then their rate will be lower, but for that age group the difference might well not be all that large. On average, if you had 900 people in MLB and you just let all of them get infected, for those age groups....you are talking about killing a couple of baseball players. The average would be 3. A healthy population would give you 2. And that doesn't count your coaching and training staffs, and it doesn't consider long-term issues in the survivors (Such as the stuff hitting youths below 18). 

The science really tells you that this virus has a lot of problems you simply cannot expect just from your population statistics. It just flat out kills a lot of people and if your sample size is high enough you will kill someone from that group and you will be devastated from that. Treatment is getting better, but damn this thing is really awful. 

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19 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Somewhat nonsurprisingly, in fact not surprisingly at all, i've been sitting here watching people say their 30 year old healthy relative died from this on twitter and just waiting for someone (basically you, tinfoil hat person) to make this point. It's focused in people who have compounding issues, but if you take an average across the age group in the recent CDC data you can estimate a death rate for the 20-39 age group that covers MLB. Basically the rule with this bug seems to be once your lungs are fully developed the death rate is 0.45% (4 or more times the flu) until you get to the 80 year old population where it skyrockets and kills everyone. 

blog_covid19_cdc_cases_by_age.gif 

IF MLB has a lower rate of people with underlying conditions then their rate will be lower, but for that age group the difference might well not be all that large. On average, if you had 900 people in MLB and you just let all of them get infected, for those age groups....you are talking about killing a couple of baseball players. The average would be 3. A healthy population would give you 2. And that doesn't count your coaching and training staffs, and it doesn't consider long-term issues in the survivors (Such as the stuff hitting youths below 18). 

The science really tells you that this virus has a lot of problems you simply cannot expect just from your population statistics. It just flat out kills a lot of people and if your sample size is high enough you will kill someone from that group and you will be devastated from that. Treatment is getting better, but damn this thing is really awful. 

Death is not the only problem with this virus. The worse cases that don't kill people leave people with permanent severe lung damage. This virus could leave someone like Yoan Moncada alive, but unable to ever play baseball again.

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7 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Somewhat nonsurprisingly, in fact not surprisingly at all, i've been sitting here watching people say their 30 year old healthy relative died from this on twitter and just waiting for someone (basically you, tinfoil hat person) to make this point. It's focused in people who have compounding issues, but if you take an average across the age group in the recent CDC data you can estimate a death rate for the 20-39 age group that covers MLB. Basically the rule with this bug seems to be once your lungs are fully developed the death rate is 0.45% (4 or more times the flu) until you get to the 80 year old population where it skyrockets and kills everyone. 

blog_covid19_cdc_cases_by_age.gif 

IF MLB has a lower rate of people with underlying conditions then their rate will be lower, but for that age group the difference might well not be all that large. On average, if you had 900 people in MLB and you just let all of them get infected, for those age groups....you are talking about killing a couple of baseball players. The average would be 3. A healthy population would give you 2. And that doesn't count your coaching and training staffs, and it doesn't consider long-term issues in the survivors (Such as the stuff hitting youths below 18). 

The science really tells you that this virus has a lot of problems you simply cannot expect just from your population statistics. It just flat out kills a lot of people and if your sample size is high enough you will kill someone from that group and you will be devastated from that. Treatment is getting better, but damn this thing is really awful. 

I’m not sure what you’re arguing here though.  The reality is not all players will get COVID-19 and those that do may get it for reasons other than playing baseball.  But more importantly, the players get to decide if they want to take a small risk in exchange for hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars.  They aren’t being forced to play baseball against their will, they can opt-out if they feel they are high risk or simply don’t want to chance it.  Again, just trying to understand what you are arguing here, because I’ve seen you make this “someone might die” statement before and not really sure if you saying we shouldn’t allow guys to play baseball or what.

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The back and forth between players and owners is not resolving the intractable issues posed by this virus. For that and other reasons I think it is time to bag  an abbreviated  2020  baseball season without fans and wait to see how this virus impacts us over the next several months.

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9 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Somewhat nonsurprisingly, in fact not surprisingly at all, i've been sitting here watching people say their 30 year old healthy relative died from this on twitter and just waiting for someone (basically you, tinfoil hat person) to make this point. It's focused in people who have compounding issues, but if you take an average across the age group in the recent CDC data you can estimate a death rate for the 20-39 age group that covers MLB. Basically the rule with this bug seems to be once your lungs are fully developed the death rate is 0.45% (4 or more times the flu) until you get to the 80 year old population where it skyrockets and kills ever

IF MLB has a lower rate of people with underlying conditions then their rate will be lower, but for that age group the difference might well not be all that large. On average, if you had 900 people in MLB and you just let all of them get infected, for those age groups....you are talking about killing a couple of baseball players. The average would be 3. A healthy population would give you 2. And that doesn't count your coaching and training staffs, and it doesn't consider long-term issues in the survivors (Such as the stuff hitting youths below 18). 

The science really tells you that this virus has a lot of problems you simply cannot expect just from your population statistics. It just flat out kills a lot of people and if your sample size is high enough you will kill someone from that group and you will be devastated from that. Treatment is getting better, but damn this thing is really awful. 

So you are taking anecdotal evidence (twitter) that 30 year olds are dying and then laying in wait for someone to disagree with you and insult them (tinfoil hats)??   What's the matter with having a reasoned argument?   You make a claim that 3 out of 900 baseball players will be dead if they play baseball.  Last week in all of America there were 4 men out of 35 million between 18-34 that died of Coronavirus (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex) and only a few hundred since the outbreak...and your own link (to make this point) says you are 12 times more likely to die if you have an underlying condition.   This thing is really awful disease for old people and people with underlying conditions.  It is a bad flu for young people.    The risk of death is not zero but for most baseball players it is very very close to zero.  Give the players that data and let them chose for themselves.  Its not idiotic to suggest that there are inherent dangers to living and just learning to deal with that risk is something we humans do every time we step in a car (WAY deadlier for males 18-34 than Covid-19).  

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Yesterday we saw 5 members of the Phillies test positive at their training site. If that occurs during the season, what happens during the resulting quarantine? You could end up w teams losing numerous players for 1-2 weeks at a time. That issue extends to all major sports. We saw a couple of Tampa Bucs also test positive this week.

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9 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

Death is not the only problem with this virus. The worse cases that don't kill people leave people with permanent severe lung damage. This virus could leave someone like Yoan Moncada alive, but unable to ever play baseball again.

Is this proven? How would you possibly know it leaves permanent damage when the virus is only a few months old?

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25 minutes ago, KrankinSox said:

Is this proven? How would you possibly know it leaves permanent damage when the virus is only a few months old?

There's probably lung scarring in all cases, even the mild ones. That's what they were saying in Italy in February. 

Covid-19 also seems to be very hard on the kidneys and liver. Younger people are dying from multi organ failure rather than ARDS. 

 My mom's friend's brother had it in California and lived. Not only was he on a vent for weeks, and flirted with death multiple times, the virus attacked his intestines, and they had to remove a lot of his colon. He now has to wear an ostomy bag. 

There are also neurological effects being seen. It's causing dementia like symptoms in younger people. 

It's too early to know if these are permanent. 

 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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