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2020 Draft: Day 2 Discussion


southsider2k5
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I don't get the consternation about investing the entire draft into 2 guys. In a good year, the Sox draft, what, 4 interesting guys plus a couple of college players we talk ourselves into liking because we're fans? It seems to me like we got the appropriate amount of players by cutting the slotted rounds in half...

I don't pay much attention to other teams, so maybe everybody else (without comp picks) drafted 5 rounds of worthwhile players?

 

Edited by gatnom
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10 hours ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

Hoerner may be the best shortstop in Chicago in 2 years

I may be missing the context of your post but you may be crazy. There is no way in hell he is better then TA or Baez in 2 years. 

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Quote

“He’s actually a two-way player,” Shirley said. “We have some interest in him actually doing both. He’s transitioning to the mound. In the fall he was 94-97 mph on the mound. He would show you a plus slider and we are anxious to see him actually transition to the mound. But we do have some hope that maybe he can possibly let this thing play out a little bit.”

Called it on Coffey 😎. From The Athletic.

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54 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Lots of attrition. HS pitchers have a long ways to go to make it to the big leagues and a lot of bad things can happen along the way.  That's why the vast majority of top pitchers in baseball come from college.  They made thru their college years and have a much shorter path to the big leagues.  

Right. And I forget about that. I  get excited everytime the Sox draft a high school arm too. Are there any examples of success for the Sox with high school pitching? Over the last 25 years? I can't think of one. There's the kid from Florida they drafted from the 2nd rd about 7 years ago. Had the funky delivery. Sox called him up and he struggled. Then the Sox released him. So sorry i forgot the name and details.

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6 minutes ago, smellysox said:

Right. And I forget about that. I  get excited everytime the Sox draft a high school arm too. Are there any examples of success for the Sox with high school pitching? Over the last 25 years? I can't think of one. There's the kid from Florida they drafted from the 2nd rd about 7 years ago. Had the funky delivery. Sox called him up and he struggled. Then the Sox released him. So sorry i forgot the name and details.

Tyler Danish.  I think he's a guy they got too hung up on the performance.  If I remember correctly I think he only gave up 1 earned run all season and had a crazy H/IP and BB/K ratios.  Stats lie especially in HS.  

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9 minutes ago, smellysox said:

Right. And I forget about that. I  get excited everytime the Sox draft a high school arm too. Are there any examples of success for the Sox with high school pitching? Over the last 25 years? I can't think of one. There's the kid from Florida they drafted from the 2nd rd about 7 years ago. Had the funky delivery. Sox called him up and he struggled. Then the Sox released him. So sorry i forgot the name and details.

Well they don’t ever draft them honestly. Gio Gonzalez was a big success and enough to make it a good success rate

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18 minutes ago, smellysox said:

Right. And I forget about that. I  get excited everytime the Sox draft a high school arm too. Are there any examples of success for the Sox with high school pitching? Over the last 25 years? I can't think of one. There's the kid from Florida they drafted from the 2nd rd about 7 years ago. Had the funky delivery. Sox called him up and he struggled. Then the Sox released him. So sorry i forgot the name and details.

The Sox really haven't drafted high school arms to the extent that they have a track record to measure them by.  Though with the two they got last year, and now Kelley this year, that will be something put to the test.

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1 hour ago, Nardiwashere said:

 

 

Putting pre-debut injury risks aside.... Does the fact that a guy like Kelley already has MLB caliber stuff and body help mitigate some of the risk?  When people bring up his "now" body, that's usually a knock on him.  Why wouldn't you want the guy who is guaranteed to have the right size over the guy you hope grows into that?   

I'm not a big fan of any physically mature high schoolers. The advantage they have over their less developed peers make them a tough evaluation imo. I want nothing to do with high schoolers throwing 99. That's peak velocity way too young. I'd prefer guys who grow into velocity, and develop as they age. Being fully developed at a young age is a turn off for me.

It's easier to look great when your physically further along. It's one reason I liked Howard a lot. Still plenty to grow into but even though he was smaller he was still dominating older kids when he was young.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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1 hour ago, Nardiwashere said:

 

 

Putting pre-debut injury risks aside.... Does the fact that a guy like Kelley already has MLB caliber stuff and body help mitigate some of the risk?  When people bring up his "now" body, that's usually a knock on him.  Why wouldn't you want the guy who is guaranteed to have the right size over the guy you hope grows into that?   

Here’s an article that discusses some of things you are asking about. The part about Blake Snell touches on your question because he was only throwing 90 when drafted and was allowed to grow into his velocity. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.com/.amp/mlb/2018/11/19/mlb-draft-high-school-pitchers-velocity-tommy-john-surgery-problem

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The big excitement that Kelley may be different is the ease of his velocity and his command. If it was just a big texas dude throwing 98 and a need to learn how to harnass it, it's more worrisome. 

We saw with Giolito how good a fastball/changeup approach can get you. So he needs to find some version of a breaking pitch as he develops but he has time.

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8 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The Sox really haven't drafted high school arms to the extent that they have a track record to measure them by.  Though with the two they got last year, and now Kelley this year, that will be something put to the test.

I forgot about Gio Gonzalez. This might age me some but I  remember about 20+ years ago they took quite a few of them. Honel, Ruffcorn, and Jason Stumm - high schooler from the state of Washington. Got alot of Roger Clemens comps.  Obviously that didn't work out.  I  get  it was a  different regime back then. Different scouting department,  and GM. I'm not knocking the Sox. Everybody in the industry gets excited about good high school pitching. And still do. Just didn't realize the very low success rate. 

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54 minutes ago, bmags said:

The big excitement that Kelley may be different is the ease of his velocity and his command. If it was just a big texas dude throwing 98 and a need to learn how to harnass it, it's more worrisome. 

We saw with Giolito how good a fastball/changeup approach can get you. So he needs to find some version of a breaking pitch as he develops but he has time.

To me this is the key. He's not a high school kid stressing his arm trover the next few yearsing to fool kids with braking stuff and his fastball. The FB/CH combo is good. They can teach him and perfect a breaking pitch over the next few years. The ease and quality of the delivery as well. He's not a gangly kid using everything he has to reach that velocity. 

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1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'm not a big fan of any physically mature high schoolers. The advantage they have over their less developed peers make them a tough evaluation imo. I want nothing to do with high schoolers throwing 99. That's peak velocity way too young. I'd prefer guys who grow into velocity, and develop as they age. Being fully developed at a young age is a turn off for me.

It's easier to look great when your physically further along. It's one reason I liked Howard a lot. Still plenty to grow into but even though he was smaller he was still dominating older kids when he was young.

This is why so many high school pitchers flame out. Some grow into it, some don't. Some try to throw to hard and aren't physically ready and wreck their arms. 

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Just now, ptatc said:

This is why so many high school pitchers flame out. Some grow into it, some don't. Some try to throw to hard and aren't physically ready and wreck their arms. 

Thanks for your input. So what’s your take on Kelley, specifically? I know you touched on it above, but do you like his chances of staying healthy? Or are the odds too much in favor of high school arms flaming out for you to ever feel good about somebody’s chances?

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5 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Thanks for your input. So what’s your take on Kelley, specifically? I know you touched on it above, but do you like his chances of staying healthy? Or are the odds too much in favor of high school arms flaming out for you to ever feel good about somebody’s chances?

I think his injury risk is lower than most high school pitchers for the reasons stated above. As far as if he will learn how to pitch to higher competition, that's a crapshoot. He didn't really use a breaking pitch much in HS so that's where his development really lies.

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13 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I think his injury risk is lower than most high school pitchers for the reasons stated above. As far as if he will learn how to pitch to higher competition, that's a crapshoot. He didn't really use a breaking pitch much in HS so that's where his development really lies.

Isn’t the fact that he didn’t use a breaking ball much in high school a good thing? I’m no expert but I’ve heard that throwing a lot of breaking balls at a young age can be detrimental for pitchers. We also have the advantage that Kelley wasn’t used and abused by his high school coach because of the pandemic.

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26 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Isn’t the fact that he didn’t use a breaking ball much in high school a good thing? I’m no expert but I’ve heard that throwing a lot of breaking balls at a young age can be detrimental for pitchers. We also have the advantage that Kelley wasn’t used and abused by his high school coach because of the pandemic.

That is a good point I really hadn't considered for pitchers in general this year.  They are going to be a lot lower mileage than normal because of no baseball this spring.  This will allow the Sox to manage their growth instead of the usual path of very few innings pitched in their draft year like usual.

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