2021 MLB Draft Thread

[Harold's Leg Lift]

4 hours ago, ChiSoxJon said:

Will he even be available?

Nope

[DirtySox]

 

Hmmmmmm.

[DirtySox]

Some stock watch blurbs today from BA.

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Jud Fabian, OF, Florida (No. 28)

We wrote about a mechanical adjustment Fabian implemented in last week’s stock watch, and after a 4-for-9 weekend that featured two home runs, a double, five walks and just one strikeout, Fabian’s strikeout rate is down to 27.7%. Fabian is one of the most interesting prospects in the class and one of the most difficult to find consensus on among scouts. His strikeout rate will be one of the most interesting numbers to watch as the season progresses, but don’t sleep on the fact that his 18 home runs are among the top five of Division I hitters.

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Ryan Holgate, OF, Arizona (No. 124)

Holgate went 3-for-12 with a home run, a double, three walks and four strikeouts against Stanford this weekend. On the season he’s hitting .354/.429/.575 with seven home runs and 17 doubles. It sounds like there’s enough interest in Holgate’s powerful lefthanded bat that he could go in the second or third round range where there are plenty of offensive-oriented but profile-challenged college bats. Holgate will be limited to an outfield corner thanks to below-average running ability, but scouts really seem to like his power potential, with some putting 70-grade raw power on the 6-foot-1, 205-pound outfielder. He has a track record of hitting and hitting for pop going back to his high school days, and the last two seasons he’s really performed with an OPS right around 1.000, though it has come with some swing and miss—though not an inordinate amount.

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Jake Fox, SS, Lakeland (Fla.) Christian HS (No. 315)

Fox is one of two players ranked on the current BA 400 from his high school—along with No. 159 OF Ty Evans—and scouts think he’s taken a bit of a step forward this spring. Some teams really like his hit tool, and through 27 games he’s managed a .362/.559/.695 line with three home runs, 32 stolen bases and 29 walks to 10 strikeouts against Florida 3A competition. Fox is a plus runner and a lefthanded hitter with impressive agility and hands that could keep him in the middle of the diamond, though scouts think his arm is a better fit for second than shortstop in pro ball, and he also has below-average power. But he’s one of many prep shortstops to keep an eye on. He’s committed to Florida.

 

Edited May 11, 2021 by DirtySox

[Quin]

40 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

 

Hmmmmmm.

I want @Harold's Leg Lift take

[Harold's Leg Lift]

54 minutes ago, Quin said:

I want @Harold's Leg Lift take

I hate everything.

[DirtySox]

6 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I hate everything.

But would you take him if he falls to 22? 😶

[ChiSoxJon]

26 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

But would you take him if he falls to 22? 😶

Yes

[Harold's Leg Lift]

51 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

But would you take him if he falls to 22? 😶

Absolutely.  Hoglund is my 2nd best pitcher behind Leiter.  

[maxjusttyped]

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22. Chicago White Sox

Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU

Hill was a top-10 pick entering the year despite a short track record on the mound and some injuries. He was up-and-down with flashes of greatness this spring, then went down with Tommy John surgery. The lack of track record and polish puts him next to advanced high school pitchers, but the surgery timeline pushes Hill behind the top couple of prep arms. He also may land in the comp or early second round where a team can spread savings from their first pick, but I'd expect a bonus in line with the 15th to 25th overall pick (i.e. $3-4 million).

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31422161/kiley-mcdaniel-2021-mlb-mock-draft-10-pirates-tough-choice-make-no-1-overall-pick

[ChiSoxJon]

3 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31422161/kiley-mcdaniel-2021-mlb-mock-draft-10-pirates-tough-choice-make-no-1-overall-pick

All for this

[bmags]

I wouldn’t be too thrilled with Hill honestly.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

He mocked them Hill?  I don't think they were on him when he was healthy.  

[ChiSoxJon]

59 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

He mocked them Hill?  I don't think they were on him when he was healthy.  

Wouldn't have been an option at 22

All for taking a risk of Hill/Hoglund personally

[Sleepy Harold]

This particular mock has the Sox selecting Wes Kath

[Harold's Leg Lift]

42 minutes ago, Sleepy Harold said:

This particular mock has the Sox selecting Wes Kath

👀

[DirtySox]

55 minutes ago, Sleepy Harold said:

This particular mock has the Sox selecting Wes Kath

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22. Chicago White Sox

Wes Kath, Third Baseman, Desert Mountain

The Chicago White Sox are all over the board this year in terms of who they’ve been out to see most, but we’re certainly catching a theme; prep bats with substantial upside. Kath brings a physicality to the plate that is tough to match in the class on the prep side. It’s a well-leveraged lefty swing with plenty of present loft and plus power projection. He takes his walks and doesn’t expand the zone too much. Most tab Kath a future solid average hitter with 20+ homer juice. His future home is almost certainly third base where he looks like a fringe average defender at worst. We’ve thrown Matt Carpenter comparisons on Kath for some time now and we’re not veering off that course anytime soon. Others that make sense here include guys like Izaac Pacheco, Peyton Stovall and potentially some draft sleepers like Cody Schrier or Maxwell Muncy. All that being said, don’t be surprised if a college arm really blossoms over the final few months of the season and is seen as a value play by Rick Hahn. Guys like Will Bednar and Matt Mikulski have a lot of helium.

I like what I'm reading on high upside prep bats or a value grab on a college pitcher.

Edited May 12, 2021 by DirtySox

[bmags]

4 hours ago, DirtySox said:

I like what I'm reading on high upside prep bats or a value grab on a college pitcher.

Yeah I'd be fine pretty excited with some of those names. Obviously have flagged Stovall before but his lack of defensive profile is a bit concerning. 

[SoxAce]

Give me a prep player Sox. Lets load up the second level in the system.

Edited May 13, 2021 by SoxAce

[ChiSoxJon]

Going off this mock, I would like one of Taylor, Fabian, Del Castillo, or Hill at 22

[knightni]

I feel like you can never have too many CF/RF or SP.

LF and the infield should be locked down for a few years.

[fathom]

Don’t know where to put this but fangraphs reported that Detmers got his fastball as high as 97 in his last start. 

[DirtySox]

New Keith Law draft rankings. He has a new player at #1.

https://theathletic.com/2580901/2021/05/13/2021-mlb-draft-big-board-version-1-0-keith-law-ranks-the-top-100-draft-prospects-with-a-new-name-at-no-1/

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This year’s draft class is … hold on, it just changed again. It’s not great at the top, maybe not even through the first round, but I still see plenty of depth here, even in the much-maligned college hitter crop – there are still plenty of players to get us through the first few rounds, and as a longtime friend of mine who’s been a scout, a director, and a VP likes to say, “You can’t pass.” (Well, you can, technically, but he’s right that it’s a career-limiting move to do so.) It’s a good year for real scouting, and raise a glass to the teams that chose to keep their scouts, because they’ll be better equipped to assess this class in the absence of so much of the summer and year-prior data that can help drive draft decisions in a normal year.

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Top 15:

1.) Henry Davis

2.) Jordan Lawlar

3.) Marcelo Mayer

4.) Kumar Rocker

5.) Jack Leiter

6.) Sal Frelick

7.) Matt McLain

8.) Kahlil Watson

9.) Harry Ford

10.) Sam Bachman

11.) Brady House

12.) Ryan Cusick

13.) Jordan Wicks

14.) Colton Cowser

15.) Will Taylor

 

Edited May 13, 2021 by DirtySox

[DirtySox]

Also here's some blurbs on players that have been discussed here, or linked to the White Sox in one way or another.

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9. Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS (Kennesaw, GA)

Ford is a high school catcher — a very risky demographic in the draft — but scouts talk about his athleticism more than anything else, which is unusual for any catching prospect, especially his plus speed. He’s also very strong, and coupled with his huge bat speed and good balance even through a big stride in the box, he looks like he’ll get to power as well.

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10. Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (Ohio)

Bachman has been up to 102 mph as a starter with a plus slider in the low 90s, with some effort but not so much that he couldn’t stick in the rotation. He missed two starts earlier this spring, but the RedHawks’ coaching staff eased him back in after his return and he showed the same electric stuff he had before he was shut down.

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12. Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest

Cusick has one of the best fastballs in the draft, into the upper 90s with enough life that nobody can hit it, so while his breaking ball is inconsistent and his changeup — more like a low-90s two-seamer — is a work-in-progress, he offers top-10 upside with more downside risk.

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14. Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State

Cowser continues to hit for average, improving as the season has progressed, with strong contact rates, although he went four weeks without homering before hitting one on Sunday against Arkansas-Little Rock and projects to hit more for average than for power in pro ball.

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16. Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (Oklahoma City)

Jobe checks every box for a high school pitcher except possibly in his delivery; he’s an outstanding athlete (and a prospect as a shortstop, too) with a four-pitch mix who has feel for the changeup and who can alter the shape on his slider at will, with good spin rates on the slider and his mid-90s fastball. There’s some effort in the delivery and some scouts don’t love how he finishes, but you can’t risk changing anything given the stuff. His biggest risk factor is just who he is – a high school pitcher.

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22. Izaac Pacheco, 3B, Friendswood (TX) HS

Pacheco is a power-hitting third baseman with a strong left-handed swing and solid defense already at third, although the way he opens up his front side through contact might give him trouble against better pitching, especially when he sees more left-handers.

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24. Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian (Fort Lauderdale, FL)

Painter is the classic high school right-hander with some now velocity but projection you can dream on, and he’s bounced back from a rough first few outings to show better control and more of a breaking ball.

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27. Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU

Hill went into the year as one of the top three college arms in the class but went down early in the year with Tommy John surgery. Prior to that he’d shown three above-average to plus pitches, touching 98, with plus control, and he seemed to have the size for durability, but had a history of minor injuries.

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30. Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss

Ole Miss announced on Tuesday that Hoglund will undergo Tommy John surgery, just a few days after he was pulled from his Friday start only 18 pitches into the outing. Hoglund had been extremely consistent most of the spring and looked like he’d be the next college starter taken after the Vandy boys, offering less upside but high probability that he’d at least develop into a fourth starter.

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57. Jud Fabian, OF, Florida

Fabian is one of the leaders in the “tooled-up SEC outfielders who swing and miss too much” category, leading the pack in tools, but with no history of making adjustments even though he has two pretty significant holes in his approach. He’s cut his strikeout rate to a manageable level over the last few weeks in the SEC, enough to put himself into second-round range for someone who wants to bet on his upside.

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71. Peyton Stovall, 2B, Haughton (LA) HS

Stovall could go as high as the back of the first round to one of the teams that loves his left-handed swing and sees a 60 hit tool, but I see him as more of a second-round talent because he doesn’t have a clear position — he’s rough at second base — and doesn’t have a plus second tool to go with the bat.

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78. Wes Kath, SS, Desert Mountain HS, Scottsdale, AZ

Kath is a left-handed hitter with the potential for 55/60 hit and power tools, with a lot of room to add muscle to his 6-3 frame, although he can get too rotational at the plate and will have to move to third in pro ball.

 

Edited May 13, 2021 by DirtySox

[bmags]

I don't know what to think this year.

[DirtySox]

Keith Law draft chat happening. Picked out the interesting/relevant stuff.

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David G.

what should the pirates do at number 1?

Keith Law

@David G. They should take whoever they think is the best player available, but right now, there is truly no consensus on that. Leiter missed his last start and as of last night I hadn't heard if he was taking the ball this weekend - and that's after he laid eggs in two straight outings. Rocker certainly hasn't seized the reins with his up-and-down performance and velocity. Davis is my current #1 but I know that is a minority opinion right now. Lawlar and Mayer probably offer more upside if you are willing to take more risk. And perhaps the Pirates would try to get a better deal on the bonus at pick 1 so they can go well over slot with their next pick atop the second round. Some years there's an easy answer (Strasburg, Harper, Rutschman). This year there isn't.

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Chris L.

Keith, do you expect high school draftees to be more reluctant to sign this year vs taking the college route? I'm curious if you think uncertainties about the new minor league structure, or other factors such as covid might tip the scales for your average HS draftee.

Keith Law

@Chris L. No, I think if anything they'll be more inclined to sign because 1) the college class at the top isn't that great and 2) there's still something of a backlog of players at college from last year's truncated draft, with a lot of HS players who might have signed last year ending up at college.

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Russell H.

Chances that Jaden Hill or Gunnar drop past the 2nd round?

Keith Law

@Russell H. Second round? I think zero unless either has a worse medical than we'd expect for a TJ guy.

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Gavin G.

If you were picking in the 20s, would you go with a falling Gunnar Hoglund even with the upcoming TJ?

Keith Law

@Gavin G. Yes.

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Philip G.

Do we need to wait until the end of June to get a good sense on Davis, the Vandy pitchers, etc and where they are likely to end up? How does the constant movement at the top of this draft board compare to other years for you?

Keith Law

@Philip G. It's more volatile this year, mostly because none of these pitchers seems to be able to stay healthy and post up every week. At least Rocker hasn't missed a start - Leiter, Hoglund, Hill, Bachman all have.

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Ben G.

Is this the year the White Sox take a prep bat?

Keith Law

@Ben G. The safe bet is no.

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Matt W.

Who do you think the Rangers will take with the 2nd pick and why should it be Jack Leiter?

Keith Law

@Matt W. Today, as we speak, there is no reason it should be Jack Leiter. He just missed a start with an explanation I did not find especially credible - you don't scratch a guy from his start a few hours before game time if you'd planned to do that all week. We have to see him pitch again.

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Joey F.

Is Hoglund to the Nats destiny now? They love the injured pitcher who slips route, even though it hasn't paid dividends for them.

Keith Law

@Joey F. Why not Jaden Hill? Better stuff, better size, less track record.

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David H.

What range in the draft would you feel comfortable taking Hill or Hoglund considering the TJ surgeries?

Keith Law

@David H. Jeff Hoffman went 9th, and Cal Quantrill 8th. That's the high-water mark for TJ guys. I would say in the back half of the first round I'd be open to them. I ranked them conservatively because 1) I'm not a doctor and 2) I haven't heard anything at all from teams about their comfort level with them.

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Mark C.

Hey Keith, who will be drafted 1st, Adrian Del Castillo or Andrew Painter?

Keith Law

@Mark C. I could go either way here. As much as Del Castillo is supposed to be a high pick, he hasn't exactly performed like one, has he? And he's not a lock to stay behind the plate. It only takes one team to pull the trigger, but if I'm trying to think about probabilities I'd guess in the back half of the round there will be more teams in play on Painter than on ADC.

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Joshua S.

Is there any smoke to the White Sox selecting Wes Kath at 22? They seems to be going hard after high upside prep types. I know they like Ford a lot.

Keith Law

@Joshua S. I don't think Ford gets out of the top 20 picks. Whether they're really on Kath remains to be seen ... I haven't heard that specifically.

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Alexander B.

How does this draft class compare to classes from the past few years?

Keith Law

@Alexander B. The top of the draft isn't great, and we're light on college bats, but I think the depth through rounds 2+ is as good as it has been in any recent year. Might have less pure velocity among HS arms but so what? I'm fine taking guys with less present fastball if they can pitch, or have a great breaking ball or changeup, and letting player development build up their velo.

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Alex P.

What’s the latest you’re hearing on Baltimore’s plans? Think they’re likely to go under-slot again with #5?

Keith Law

@Alex P. The most common rumor has them going under-slot for someone like House or Ford - Mike Elias has gone out to see a few guys, including, if I remember correctly, Will Taylor? - and I do think they'll pursue a similar strategy, but I'm not convinced they'll do it with a high school bat.

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David M.

As always, love your draft and prospect coverage. Who do you see as the best pure hitter in the draft - and the best hit/power combo?

Keith Law

@David M. You know, that's a tough question this year, but I wonder if McLain is really the guy with the best hit tool after all. I know he's hurt now, but between mid-March and the injury he looked like a different player - more and better contact, a little thump, and the best reports I've ever gotten on his defense. House seems to have the most power.

 

Edited May 13, 2021 by DirtySox