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Which career would you pick?


southsider2k5
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Which career would you pick?  

69 members have voted

  1. 1. Which career would you pick?

    • Eloy Jimenez
      3
    • Yoan Moncada
      15
    • Luis Robert
      51
    • Lucas Giolito
      0
    • Other, post your pick
      0


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Lots of guys fall off in the middle of what should be their primes after starting HOF tracks.  The Sox have Eloy, Yoan, Robert and Vaughn that I could all see starting that HOF track.  Vaughn's overall game might have the best staying power to accumulate seasons and counting stats.  He would be my vote as a result but he's not on the list.

Edited by HollywoodTim
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1 hour ago, GermanSoxFan said:

I am going to pick Moncada. Robert is special, but Yoan with his more refined approach will be more consistent. He also doesn‘t have to rely that heavily on his speed or athleticism, 

Yoan did not come up with a refined approach. Yoan's approach when he came up was so bad he set the record for strikeouts in a season. He showed flashes of being a great player in his exit velocity, but pitchers had a way to get him out, by going to the places in the strike zone he couldn't defend.

Robert has those same weaknesses right now, too aggressive, pitchers can fool him into swings and misses. And yet...Robert is doing way more damage than Moncada could do at that point in his career, and Robert's approach is already more refined than Moncada's was at that point, and look at the damage he's doing. As he learns how big league pitchers attack him, and adapts to that...OMG.

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I picked Moncada just because I think whereas Robert might have an 8 WAR year in him, he probably has a couple 2.5 WAR years in him as well.  Moncada I just feel is going to put up 6 WAR or so until age 31 or so.  His eye is too consistent.

That said, I feel like I'm shorting AAPL here wrt to Robert.  I already lost a bunch of money last week doing that.  Inverse myself it's probably Robert with the best career, ugh.

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1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I picked Moncada just because I think whereas Robert might have an 8 WAR year in him, he probably has a couple 2.5 WAR years in him as well.  Moncada I just feel is going to put up 6 WAR or so until age 31 or so.  His eye is too consistent.

That said, I feel like I'm shorting AAPL here wrt to Robert.  I already lost a bunch of money last week doing that.  Inverse myself it's probably Robert with the best career, ugh.

I love Moncada as a player, I really do....given the way they started their careers, I have no idea how you pick Robert here. Moncada has way more swing and miss in his game than Robert does. 

 

As others have said, Moncada has top 15 in the game potential, while Robert has #1 potential. 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

As others have said, Moncada has top 15 in the game potential, while Robert has #1 potential. 

The difference, though, is that Moncada already is a top 15 position player in the game. It's not potential with him, it's right now

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10 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I picked Moncada just because I think whereas Robert might have an 8 WAR year in him, he probably has a couple 2.5 WAR years in him as well.  Moncada I just feel is going to put up 6 WAR or so until age 31 or so.  His eye is too consistent.

That said, I feel like I'm shorting AAPL here wrt to Robert.  I already lost a bunch of money last week doing that.  Inverse myself it's probably Robert with the best career, ugh.

I see you’re coming around to my preseason statement that Robert will be a better version of Acuna 😉

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There's definitely going to be recency bias here. Ask this a year before or a year from now and i think the answers would be skewed different ways. Hell, even after a few back to back O-fers for Robert. Pitchers will make adjustments like they do with all rookies and the test will be if he can make them back. Thus far it seems like it. That being said - even after watching a few games it's crazy how good the kid is.. he makes Yoan and Eloy look just like regular players. Robert has the talent to be in the categories with Acuna and Trout. I think Acuna is probably his best comp currently. He's Frank Thomas territory talent - while guys like Eloy are Paulie. Robert is HOF talent, while Yoan and Eloy are All-Stars. 

 

It's not all free sailing ahead though - Robert has a long history of injuries. If he can stay healthy though he's going to be a monster. Hopefully he can do so over the next 5-7 years. Would be fun to watch. 

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2 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

There's definitely going to be recency bias here. Ask this a year before or a year from now and i think the answers would be skewed different ways. Hell, even after a few back to back O-fers for Robert. Pitchers will make adjustments like they do with all rookies and the test will be if he can make them back. Thus far it seems like it. That being said - even after watching a few games it's crazy how good the kid is.. he makes Yoan and Eloy look just like regular players. Robert has the talent to be in the categories with Acuna and Trout. I think Acuna is probably his best comp currently. He's Frank Thomas territory talent - while guys like Eloy are Paulie. Robert is HOF talent, while Yoan and Eloy are All-Stars. 

 

It's not all free sailing ahead though - Robert has a long history of injuries. If he can stay healthy though he's going to be a monster. Hopefully he can do so over the next 5-7 years. Would be fun to watch. 

I'm not even sure what adjustments they can make, right out the gate he was seeing nothing but sliders low and away, one of the lowest FB% and highest SL% in baseball, looking at the numbers this morning I think they've started to adjust a bit as his FB% is increasing but if the adjustment is to throw more fastballs I don't see how that's going to work with his bat speed. I'm just not sure what they can do differently to get him out.

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My guess is he's going to start seeing a lot more fastballs up in the zone. That .143 batting average you see below is the sliders low and away, the .500 and .400 batting average are those that caught a bit of the plate, he's making them pay dearly when they miss their spot even a bit low in the zone.

image.png

One more chart to illustrate where they're pitching him currently:

image.png

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On 8/2/2020 at 6:03 AM, Balta1701 said:

Yoan did not come up with a refined approach. Yoan's approach when he came up was so bad he set the record for strikeouts in a season. He showed flashes of being a great player in his exit velocity, but pitchers had a way to get him out, by going to the places in the strike zone he couldn't defend.

Robert has those same weaknesses right now, too aggressive, pitchers can fool him into swings and misses. And yet...Robert is doing way more damage than Moncada could do at that point in his career, and Robert's approach is already more refined than Moncada's was at that point, and look at the damage he's doing. As he learns how big league pitchers attack him, and adapts to that...OMG.

Moncada was different than robert tough. Moncada always had decent patience but he would be too passive and thus falling in many 2 strike counts because he would just swing down the pipe early in the count and sometimes even late in the count when he took pitches at the edges with 2 strikes.

Robert is more like too aggresive and chases quite a bit but he is also not getting cheated on balls in the zone thus doing more damage.

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