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southsider2k5

Sox playoff chances sit at 100%, 3rd in AL for WS odds

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If Stiever stays in the rotation and the Sox push Giolito and Keuchel each past the Cincinnati series they can line both up to face Cleveland and be ready for the first round on regular rest.

Something along these lines:

9/14 - Cease
9/15 - Dunning
9/16 - Giolito 
9/17 - Keuchel 
 
Cincinnati
9/18 - Gio Gonzalez?
9/19 - Stiever
9/20- Lopez?
 
Cleveland
9/21 - Cease
9/22 - Dunning
9/23 - Giolito
9/24 - Keuchel
 
Cubs
9/25 - Stiever 
9/26 - Cease
9/27 - Dunning
 
1st Round
9/29 - Giolito
9/30 - Keuchel
10/1 - Cease*
Edited by SouthWallace

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Or 

Minnesota 
9/14 - Cease
9/15 - Dunning
9/16 - Giolito
9/17 - Keuchel
 
Cincinnati
9/18 - Stiever
9/19 - Cease
9/20 - Lopez?
 
Cleveland
9/21 - Dunning
9/22 - Giolito
9/23 - Keuchel
9/24 - Cease
 
Cubs
9/25 - Stiever 
9/26 - Dunning
9/27 - Lopez
 
1st Round
9/29 - Giolito
9/30 - Keuchel
10/1 - Cease*
Edited by SouthWallace
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What metrics are being used by Fangraphs to give them the idea that the Twins have the highest chance to win the world series of any AL team?  I'm not here to say they cant, but they are pushing them as the most likely AL team and the Sox as the 3rd least likely of the 8 AL teams

qIsNFO6.jpg

Edited by joesaiditstrue

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Making a separate post for my own analysis on this

I thought it might be based on each teams record vs .500 teams

Sox: 7-11 (.389)

Rays: 21-9 (.700)

A's: 1-2 (.333) <-- wtf lol

Twins: 14-6 (.700)

Jays: 11-11 (.500)

Astros: 4-13 (.235)

Yanks: 7-14 (.333)

Tribe: 9-12 (.429)

So based off of this alone, it would look like

Rays/Twins > Blue Jays > Tribe > Sox > As/Yanks > Astros

Of course there are other data points to consider I'm sure.

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2 hours ago, joesaiditstrue said:

Making a separate post for my own analysis on this

I thought it might be based on each teams record vs .500 teams

Sox: 7-11 (.389)

Rays: 21-9 (.700)

A's: 1-2 (.333) <-- wtf lol

Twins: 14-6 (.700)

Jays: 11-11 (.500)

Astros: 4-13 (.235)

Yanks: 7-14 (.333)

Tribe: 9-12 (.429)

So based off of this alone, it would look like

Rays/Twins > Blue Jays > Tribe > Sox > As/Yanks > Astros

Of course there are other data points to consider I'm sure.

Funny thing about this stat is that the Tigers are under .500 because of our dominance against them. If we would have lost 3 more times against them, we’d be 6-4 against them, they’d be a .500 team, and our record against .500 teams would actually improve. Hell, even the Royals are .500 against the rest of baseball. 

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1 hour ago, SoxBlanco said:

Funny thing about this stat is that the Tigers are under .500 because of our dominance against them. If we would have lost 3 more times against them, we’d be 6-4 against them, they’d be a .500 team, and our record against .500 teams would actually improve. Hell, even the Royals are .500 against the rest of baseball. 

When the Tigers were last .500 our record was like 13 and 9 or something like that. 

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17 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

When the Tigers were last .500 our record was like 13 and 9 or something like that. 

I’m not sure what point you are trying to make here. 

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4 hours ago, joesaiditstrue said:

Making a separate post for my own analysis on this

I thought it might be based on each teams record vs .500 teams

Sox: 7-11 (.389)

Rays: 21-9 (.700)

A's: 1-2 (.333) <-- wtf lol

Twins: 14-6 (.700)

Jays: 11-11 (.500)

Astros: 4-13 (.235)

Yanks: 7-14 (.333)

Tribe: 9-12 (.429)

So based off of this alone, it would look like

Rays/Twins > Blue Jays > Tribe > Sox > As/Yanks > Astros

Of course there are other data points to consider I'm sure.

it's basically a lesson in matchups.

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25 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

I’m not sure what point you are trying to make here. 

The point is that record against. .500 teams is misleading in this season. When Detroit was last. 500, our record against .500 teams was 13 and 9 against .500 teams. Like what was mentioned, had we gotten swept by Detroit, our record against .500 teams would be better and our odds of winning a title would go up according to fangraphs. 

Edited by SonofaRoache

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1 hour ago, SonofaRoache said:

The point is that record against. .500 teams is misleading in this season. When Detroit was last. 500, our record against .500 teams was 13 and 9 against .500 teams. Like what was mentioned, had we gotten swept by Detroit, our record against .500 teams would be better and our odds of winning a title would go up according to fangraphs. 

Its also misleading because Detroit and KC are literally over .500 on the season when they don't play the White Sox. 

Theyre 2-18 combined vs the Sox. They're 38-36 against everyone else. 

The narrative of "beating good teams" has always been absurd in baseball given the way the game matches up and runs in spurts. The twins got swept by KC and Detroit.

Sox have dominated. Period eos.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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28 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Its also misleading because Detroit and KC are literally over .500 on the season when they don't play the White Sox. 

Theyre 2-18 combined vs the Sox. They're 38-36 against everyone else. 

The narrative of "beating good teams" has always been absurd in baseball given the way the game matches up and runs in spurts. The twins got swept by KC and Detroit.

Sox have dominated. Period eos.

I also believe that if you cannot beat teams that suck consistently, you are in trouble as a playoff favorite. I think this field is very evenly matched and we will need to get better this offseason for sure to be a favorite next season. Thankfully, not much needs to be added to the roster and player development will boost us as well. 

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Guys...I just think it's amazing that...whatever you think about where the Sox stand or how they match up...WE ARE HAVING FREAKING CONVERSATIONS ABOUT THE CHICAGO WHITE SOX IN THE PLAYOFFS.

Oh my soul, how long it has been 😭😭😭 

This will literally be the first time in my adult life I will see the Sox in the postseason. I'm 26.

AND I CAN'T EVEN FRICKIN BE THERE 🤬🤬🤬

Edited by ScooterMcGee
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2 hours ago, SonofaRoache said:

The point is that record against. .500 teams is misleading in this season. When Detroit was last. 500, our record against .500 teams was 13 and 9 against .500 teams. Like what was mentioned, had we gotten swept by Detroit, our record against .500 teams would be better and our odds of winning a title would go up according to fangraphs. 

Ah, gotcha.  My bad.  So you were agreeing with me there.  I misread what you were trying to say. Thanks for clarifying.

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FG = 100% playoff odds, 48.9% at winning the division, 5.6% at WS championship.

Bref = >99.9% playoff odds, 55.6% at winning the division, 3.8% at WS championship.

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1 hour ago, ScooterMcGee said:

Guys...I just think it's amazing that...whatever you think about where the Sox stand or how they match up...WE ARE HAVING FREAKING CONVERSATIONS ABOUT THE CHICAGO WHITE SOX IN THE PLAYOFFS.

Oh my soul, how long it has been 😭😭😭 

This will literally be the first time in my adult life I will see the Sox in the postseason. I'm 26.

AND I CAN'T EVEN FRICKIN BE THERE 🤬🤬🤬

I remember when I was 21 in 2005 and how exciting that was. I was a die hard fan since I was 8 and was disappointed with the strike, white flag trade, and how 2000 ended. It just felt like I'd never experience a Sox winner. After 2005, that disappointment came back with how we finished 2006 and the dread of 2007 and drafting bust Beckham. Understand this though, this will be the first ever great run for this team. We need to enjoy this decade as it is a once in a lifetime opportunity and chance to be a baseball juggernaut. I am so happy for our older Sox fans who get a last Harrah and the younger ones who get to taste success for the first time. 

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2 hours ago, ScooterMcGee said:

Guys...I just think it's amazing that...whatever you think about where the Sox stand or how they match up...WE ARE HAVING FREAKING CONVERSATIONS ABOUT THE CHICAGO WHITE SOX IN THE PLAYOFFS.

Oh my soul, how long it has been 😭😭😭 

This will literally be the first time in my adult life I will see the Sox in the postseason. I'm 26.

AND I CAN'T EVEN FRICKIN BE THERE 🤬🤬🤬

I was a senior in college. I wouldn't meet my wife for another three years. My oldest child wouldn't be born for seven, my youngest not for almost a decade. My company, with whom I just hit my eleven year anniversary, didn't know anything about me because I hadn't even applied yet.

Neither my own family nor any coworker I've ever had has met Dallas-Kong-Who-Is-Emotionally-Invested-In-Playoff-Baseball.

Crazy.

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48 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

I remember when I was 21 in 2005 and how exciting that was. I was a die hard fan since I was 8 and was disappointed with the strike, white flag trade, and how 2000 ended. It just felt like I'd never experience a Sox winner. After 2005, that disappointment came back with how we finished 2006 and the dread of 2007 and drafting bust Beckham. Understand this though, this will be the first ever great run for this team. We need to enjoy this decade as it is a once in a lifetime opportunity and chance to be a baseball juggernaut. I am so happy for our older Sox fans who get a last Harrah and the younger ones who get to taste success for the first time. 

Thank you. I needed someone to tell me this.

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Still getting a 2000 vibe from this squad. They have two plus weeks to firm up the staff and hope LuRob goes binging.  

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17 minutes ago, pcq said:

Still getting a 2000 vibe from this squad. They have two plus weeks to firm up the staff and hope LuRob goes binging.  

This wouldn’t be a bad thing. Many of the teams to do recent rebuilds had to lose a playoff series before they came back and won it all. Cubs, Astros, Royals. So if we don’t win it all this year we still come out more experienced at playoff atmospheres and maybe more motivated next year.

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23 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

FG = 100% playoff odds, 48.9% at winning the division, 5.6% at WS championship.

Bref = >99.9% playoff odds, 55.6% at winning the division, 3.8% at WS championship.

The win last night pushed the division odds up over 10 percentage points

FG at 64.7% for the division and 5.4% for the world series.  The wild thing is that Minnesota while having a 32.2% chance at the division, have a 8.3% chance at winning  the world series.

Bref now 67.3% for the division, and 3.5% for the world series win .  The Twins are showing a 4.4% chance at winning it all, and with Cleveland it is 5.4%

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19 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

This wouldn’t be a bad thing. Many of the teams to do recent rebuilds had to lose a playoff series before they came back and won it all. Cubs, Astros, Royals. So if we don’t win it all this year we still come out more experienced at playoff atmospheres and maybe more motivated next year.

Totally agree with this. But also...Bauer, Kopech, Vaughn and whomever our new RF and backup catchers are will be pretty motivated for back-to-back championships...

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7 minutes ago, Leonard Zelig said:

How can the playoff odds be 100% when they haven’t clinched yet?

they have enough wins based on the lower seeds current wins and projections for rest of season.  Sox are in. 

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