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southsider2k5

Sox playoff chances sit at 100%, 3rd in AL for WS odds

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8 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

6th  Astros 82.2%

 

7th  White Sox  69.4%

8th  Red Sox 37.1%

9th  Angels 34.5%

10th Tigers 33.2%

Are you seriously going to standings watch for every game? Better buy stock in TUMS.

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1 minute ago, ptatc said:

Are you seriously going to standings watch for every game? Better buy stock in TUMS.

Southsider2k5 did it too, lol.

Seriously, despite that 1-5 slide, providing this "statistical prediction" on a regular basis can at least validate that we're on the right trajectory for making the playoffs.

(For example, at the time of the James Shields trade in 2016, the odds at that time were closer to 33%.)

Of course, adding 3 teams in each league changes the equation pretty dramatically.

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5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Southsider2k5 did it too, lol.

Seriously, despite that 1-5 slide, providing this "statistical prediction" on a regular basis can at least validate that we're on the right trajectory for making the playoffs.

(For example, at the time of the James Shields trade in 2016, the odds at that time were closer to 33%.)

Of course, adding 3 teams in each league changes the equation pretty dramatically.

I get it. But with a team this young and beat up it's going to be a rollercoaster all year. So buy stock in TUMS and enjoy the games and the ride.

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Are the 2nd place teams getting seeded 4-5-6 no matter what, or is it just record past 3, but must include 2nd place teams?

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16 minutes ago, flavum said:

Are the 2nd place teams getting seeded 4-5-6 no matter what, or is it just record past 3, but must include 2nd place teams?

I’ll answer my own question. 2nd place teams are seeded 4, 5, and 6.  Another mistake by MLB.

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By record, the Sox are top 8. By playoff format, the Sox aren’t in the playoffs because head-to-head with Cleveland. 
 

The Rangers would be the 6-seed with an 8-9 record.

Edited by flavum

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48 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Ptac?

Yep. TUMS all around. At least this one is on an off day when there really isn't much else to post.

Edited by ptatc

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This hasn't been talked about much so far with the offensive misery, but the defense for the Sox has been a huge positive this year.  They currently rank 4th in MLB in defensive runs saved

 

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7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

This hasn't been talked about much so far with the offensive misery, but the defense for the Sox has been a huge positive this year.  They currently rank 4th in MLB in defensive runs saved

 

They've made a lot of good plays and if they can just clean up the awful ones this would be an elite defense with all the speed and arms scattered throughout.  Getting Mazara out of RF would be a big boost.  Between him and Eloy not even Robert can cover those gaps.

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2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Sox now sitting at 73.8% playoff chance according to fangraphs, still 7th in AL.

Toronto took a huge hit with Bichette likely missing at least a month.

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1 minute ago, fathom said:

Toronto took a huge hit with Bichette likely missing at least a month.

The really good thing for us is the remainder of our schedule is pretty low.  Ours is .518, while Cleveland is .543 and Minnesota is .555.  We have a real shot at a top 2 slot in the division still, especially if Clevinger and Pleasac are gone for.

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