2021 Offseason Prediction: Who We Lose and What Will Be Our Needs?

[caulfield12]

Relying on Rodon or Lopez as a potential closer...Rodon walks WAY too many, and Lopez lacks a true dominating wipeout pitch.

With Bummer and Crochet, they’re absolutely set from the LH side.   That still leaves Heuer, Marshall, Foster, Burdi, Ian Hamilton and Lopez/Rodon/Stiever.  Not to mention Thompson or Dahlquist...?  Tons of options there.   There’s also still a non-zero chance Kopech ends up as the closer.

Maybe they win a championship and then convert Crochet in a legit attempt at a starting role...

[caulfield12]

Pederson/Engel is absolutely fine for the weakest offensive spot...and no reason to believe Pederson would not at least have an 800 ops with the right matchups, except for the fact we said the same about Mazara.  But compare their career fWAR numbers.  Not even close.

Edited September 27, 2020 by caulfield12

[harkness99]

starting pitching is the biggest need.

[Chicago White Sox]

32 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Relying on Rodon or Lopez as a potential closer...Rodon walks WAY too many, and Lopez lacks a true dominating wipeout pitch.

With Bummer and Crochet, they’re absolutely set from the LH side.   That still leaves Heuer, Marshall, Foster, Burdi, Ian Hamilton and Lopez/Rodon/Stiever.  Not to mention Thompson or Dahlquist...?  Tons of options there.   There’s also still a non-zero chance Kopech ends up as the closer.

Maybe they win a championship and then convert Crochet in a legit attempt at a starting role...

Crotchet should begin next year at Birmingham in a starting role.  Once he hits a pre-set innings limit he should get a call-up and resume a setup role with the major league team for the stretch run.  I definitely want to see if we can make him a Chris Sale caliber starter before I settle on him being a Josh Hader type reliever.

[Chicago White Sox]

34 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Pederson/Engel is absolutely fine for the weakest offensive spot...and no reason to believe Pederson would not at least have an 800 ops with the right matchups, except for the fact we said the same about Mazara.  But compare their career fWAR numbers.  Not even close.

100% agree.  I truly believe that Joc will be the addition in RF.  Some people will hate such a move, but he’s the perfect stop-gap if we can add one of the big Cuban free agent outfielders.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Pederson for one year, assuming Colas or Cespedes long term.

Leery of buying high on NL player peaking at that age.   But who knows?   All depends on the ask and how highly SF values him.  If thry make the postseason and he stars, his value is even higher, but he has started to return to earth already.

We can look all point to Cruz, but JD Martinez and EE are both looking dead in the water, at some point soon, he’s going to crash hard.  Vaughn gets that shot, regardless.
 

Still no idea what they’re thinking with Leury Garcia.  He seemed an automatic resign until the injury, bot not so sure anymore with Mendick and Engel, even Yolmer, potentially back in the oicture.

I don't know how anyone can assume Colas or Cespedes will be ready in a year with the pandemic wreakingking havoc on the minor leagues and Latin American programs.. We haven't even officially signed either of them . We need production now for the next 2-3 years at least. You really can't say anything bad about Yastrezmski . His numbers would be superstar numbers this year if it wasn't for the fact he's been around for such a short period of time but he's likely to give you 2 to 3 years of good production which seems ideal to me if anyone is actually counting on guys we haven't even signed yet to actually be productive.

Edited September 27, 2020 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I don't know how anyone can assume Colas or Cespedes will be ready in a year with the pandemic wreakingking havoc on the minor leagues and Latin American programs.. We haven't even officially signed either of them . We need production now for the next 2-3 years at least. You really can't say anything bad about Yastrezmski . His numbers would be superstar numbers this year if it wasn't for the fact he's been around for such a short period of time but he's likely to give you 2 to 3 years of good production which seems ideal to me if anyone is actually counting on guys we haven't even signed yet to actually be productive.

Who are we willing to trade that SF would really want?   He’s the top fWAR guy on their entire team...

It’s not going to be just Stiever as the headliner.  Or Lopez.

 

[YourWhatHurts]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Who are we willing to trade that SF would really want?   He’s the top fWAR guy on their entire team...

It’s not going to be just Stiever as the headliner.  Or Lopez.

 

It's hard to trust a player who only became so useful so late.  Is he more Jayson Werth / Justin Turner etc. or more Alejandro DeAza?

Not that the price would be so small, but that Baretto for Tommy La Stella deal might be a smaller example of the kind of return they could expect.  I would not send Stiever, but Reynaldo + Adolfo maybe.  That's still a lot if you believe in Lopez to become a quality starter.

I really don't want the Sox to give up on their young guys.  The new model should be to let the young guys develop / show their stuff a bit in the Majors first.  The difference in trade value between a guy who is already viewed by the league as a quality 4/5 MLB starter with upside as a #3 for instance, like a Dunning, and a guy who is just a prospect that many simply assume will become that kind of guy, is enormous.  

Look at the Cubs and Red Sox.  Winning consistently doesn't make you better, it makes you worse.  You counter that by **not** giving huge FA contracts, and by extending your own players, and by trading productive veterans with greater than 1 year control (ideally 2+) before FA, and by keeping enough spots open to let your young players have a chance to fill them before you spend prospect capital and/or payroll headroom.  

I've said this before, but I really hope the Sox try to be more like the A's or Rays, but of course still spend money, mostly by extending their own players, and by signing expensive  FA players to 3-4 year max contracts, and by acquiring stars at discounts when the clubs that signed them are trying to get out of those deals, ala Verlander to the Astros.

The Sox will be so good for the next probably 3 to 5 years just off of their core that they really do not have to put the pedal on the gas right away and go for broke ala Cubs and Red Sox.  If they are patient maybe we could turn this whole window into about a 8-10 year window where there is a pretty good shot at a title every year in ST.  

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, YourWhatHurts said:

It's hard to trust a player who only became so useful so late.  Is he more Jayson Werth / Justin Turner etc. or more Alejandro DeAza?

Not that the price would be so small, but that Baretto for Tommy La Stella deal might be a smaller example of the kind of return they could expect.  I would not send Stiever, but Reynaldo + Adolfo maybe.  That's still a lot if you believe in Lopez to become a quality starter.

I really don't want the Sox to give up on their young guys.  The new model should be to let the young guys develop / show their stuff a bit in the Majors first.  The difference in trade value between a guy who is already viewed by the league as a quality 4/5 MLB starter with upside as a #3 for instance, like a Dunning, and a guy who is just a prospect that many simply assume will become that kind of guy, is enormous.  

Look at the Cubs and Red Sox.  Winning consistently doesn't make you better, it makes you worse.  You counter that by **not** giving huge FA contracts, and by extending your own players, and by trading productive veterans with greater than 1 year control (ideally 2+) before FA, and by keeping enough spots open to let your young players have a chance to fill them before you spend prospect capital and/or payroll headroom.  

I've said this before, but I really hope the Sox try to be more like the A's or Rays, but of course still spend money, mostly by extending their own players, and by signing expensive  FA players to 3-4 year max contracts, and by acquiring stars at discounts when the clubs that signed them are trying to get out of those deals, ala Verlander to the Astros.

The Sox will be so good for the next probably 3 to 5 years just off of their core that they really do not have to put the pedal on the gas right away and go for broke ala Cubs and Red Sox.  If they are patient maybe we could turn this whole window into about a 8-10 year window where there is a pretty good shot at a title every year in ST.  

You wouldn’t trade Stiever for Yastrzemski?

[YourWhatHurts]

^To my post above, the difference between a rebuilding team and a contending team is a loss in about 15-25 spots or so in every round of the draft, and a loss of millions in draft pool, and a loss of millions in INTL FA, plus picking at the bottom of the waiver wire and Rule 5 order.  That probably all combines to be a loss of about 2-3 excellent prospects every year.  Teams like the Dodgers can make up the difference in places teams like the Sox have not been able to, but ideally, the Sox will find a way to replace that value of the top prospects lost through other means.  To me that means they need to trade some guys earlier and keep some spots open.

[YourWhatHurts]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You wouldn’t trade Stiever for Yastrzemski?

Absolutely not.  Not a chance in hell.

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, YourWhatHurts said:

Absolutely not.  Not a chance in hell.

Really, for a guy who has put up 4.7 fWAR in his first 160 games and is controllable for another five seasons?  Like I’m not trying to be a dick, but that is absolutely mind-boggling to me.

[flavum]

All the Yaz's?

[YourWhatHurts]

He's a AAAA player with a late career emergence and whatever his numbers are, it is a whole lot easier to replace production in the OF than at the top of a rotation.  I absolutely believe in Stiever and I think he has a shot to be a top-end guy.  He clearly needs a full year in the minors, but there are a lot of signs about him that are very, very good.  He's the guy I hang on to and don't trade.

Don't believe that what you saw in his 2nd MLB start is who this guy really is.  The profile is terrific.  I think he's got a great chance of being one of those Kluber/Clevinger/Plesac/Bieber guys that come totally out of nowhere and end up at the top of a rotation.  He's probably my favorite SP prospect as a mix of ceiling and floor.  I think he is a sure starter, has a very high (#1) ceiling, and a floor of a quality MLB starter.  He's my guy.

Edited September 27, 2020 by YourWhatHurts

[YourWhatHurts]

BTW what about Mitch Haniger?  Dipshito makes trades just to make trades.  He's probably available on the cheap coming off injury.

[black jack]

 Bauer.  He slots everyone down and give us a year to rebuild Kopech.  Instantly makes our rotation a strength, not to mention extremely deep with the young arms knocking at the door.

McCann.  3/33 we have the money and not many needs.

Joc to platoon with Engel if he’s open to a 1-2 year deal.  If not, I’d give all the kids a shot at splitting time with Adam.

[Timmy U]

I think that RF isn’t going to be a huge priority.  Whoever they get is gonna hit 8th, replacing a guy with a wrc+ of 65. A healthy Leury is better than that.  I am intrigued by the progress Getz said that Rutherford has made. He might be an option second half of  the year. I would hate to give a multi year contract to Joc. He’s exactly the mid level free agent type that burns you.

I think there‘s a chance they reup Mazara cuz it’s just one year.  Don’t know. As many have said, not a lot of lefty hitting RF candidates out there.

[hi8is]

21 minutes ago, black jack said:

McCann.  3/33 we have the money and not many needs.

 

Another good reason to sign McCann is that if he continues to preform and Yaz does his thing, we eventually will have some trade bait.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Who are we willing to trade that SF would really want?   He’s the top fWAR guy on their entire team...

It’s not going to be just Stiever as the headliner.  Or Lopez.

 

1st you were leery of an NL player peeking at his age now all of a sudden he's worth a lot ? I have no idea what SF would want for him. He's just going to be wasted there in the coming few years as near future value is indeterminable.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, Timmy U said:

I think that RF isn’t going to be a huge priority.  Whoever they get is gonna hit 8th, replacing a guy with a wrc+ of 65. A healthy Leury is better than that.  I am intrigued by the progress Getz said that Rutherford has made. He might be an option second half of  the year. I would hate to give a multi year contract to Joc. He’s exactly the mid level free agent type that burns you.

I think there‘s a chance they reup Mazara cuz it’s just one year.  Don’t know. As many have said, not a lot of lefty hitting RF candidates out there.

RF is not going to be a huge priority?  What are the priorities then?  And we said the same thing last year after getting epically bad production out of RF and then ended up with Nomar Mazara.  It’s time to stop fucking around and at least get a two to three win player for RF.  If we’re relying on guys like Leury and Rutherford to be the answer then we’re fucked from the get-go.

[bmags]

Dead weight to cut from the roster that I never want to see play in sox uniform again:

Lopez

Rodon

Mazara

Make it happen. 
 

There have to be no other people on earth that are left handed throw upper 90s with one of the best sliders on earth that could have put together a worse baseball career than Rodon.

[Two-Gun Pete]

9 hours ago, YourWhatHurts said:

1. First priority is a Giolito extension. 

2. I'm not on board with trading for any of the Mets OFers.  I think we need to be patient.  A Joc/Engel platoon is just fine, and people complaining are overthinking it entirely.  Don't piss away all of your payroll room and prospect capital at once. 

On #1, I agree completely. This should be a top priority, IMO.

On #2, I also agree. Trading for a RF upgrade would be a foolish waste of resources, IMO. This system is talented, but shallow. Rankings.

Once you get past the first few names, there really isn't a lot of value that can be traded without harming the org in the future. Especially, since 5 of the Top 10 are "already here" [Robert/Madrigal/Crochet/Dunning/Stiever], and another 2 are likely to be in the 25 man roster at some point next season [Kopech/Vaughn]. If you trade for a RF upgrade, we could be looking at a system where Micker Adolfo is the #1 "prospect," or worse. In other words, there would be little capital left for future trades, or for depth.

Fortunately, I believe that salaries will be depressed this offseason in FA, as many clubs will have endured financial losses this [and possibly next] season. I'd rather go the FA route to fill most holes, rather than losing depth and capital for future moves.

 

In general, I think this team needs SP depth, since Lopez, Cease, Rodon, and Kopech all have questionable abilities to regularly and reliably locate their fastballs. Sadly, if we get 1 reliable MLB SP out of this group, we should be lucky. To me, that means that Bauer ALONE won't fully fill the need for ~500+ IP in 2021 that the #s 3/4/5 SPs need to give a competitive team. I'd be OK with Quintana + another SP signed in FA.

After the SP question, for the RF role, I'd prefer a Joc + Colas/Cespedes or Puig + Colas/Cespedes solution for the RF position. In other words, a stopgap + a longer term solution.

[YourWhatHurts]

Potentially open 40 man spots of now (at 42 currently):

Free Agency: Colome, Gio Gonzalez, McCann, Dyson

Likely Buyouts: EE

Potential Buyouts: Leury

Likely Outrights: McRae

Likely Nontenders: Mazara, Yolmer

Potential Nontenders: Rodon, Cordero

Likely on the edge of the roster due to talent level/performance/options/salary, etc.: Flores, Lopez, Ruiz, Yermin, Zavala, Adolfo, Luis Gonzalez

I count up to 16 possible spots given that we are at 42 ATM.  I expect a couple of small trades just to clear roster space.  We will have to add some players to protect them from the Rule-5 but we will probably have a lot of room to work even after that.

[Tnetennba]

What will they need?  Staring pitcher, RF, inning eating vet long man, New Manager, New Pitching Coach. 

[Dominikk85]

They need a DH, a RF and another SP.

 

-DH will come from internal (Vaughn)

-SP could come from internal (kopech) but depending on the number of innings he can throw and the development of cease another guy might be needed.

Ideally you have giolito, keuchel, dunning, cease and kopech being the guys but kopech could be limited to about 120 innings and we don't know how much cease can improve the command. They sox just don't have much pitching depth

-RF has to come from outside the org. There is no standout prospect for the OF in the org and mazara doesn't seem like the answer even if some health issues are resolved. Engel has done a good job but he isn't an everyday corner outfielder.