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2021 Offseason Prediction: Who We Lose and What Will Be Our Needs?

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Potentially open 40 man spots of now (at 42 currently):

Free Agency: Colome, Gio Gonzalez, McCann, Dyson

Likely Buyouts: EE

Potential Buyouts: Leury

Likely Outrights: McRae

Likely Nontenders: Mazara, Yolmer

Potential Nontenders: Rodon, Cordero

Likely on the edge of the roster due to talent level/performance/options/salary, etc.: Flores, Lopez, Ruiz, Yermin, Zavala, Adolfo, Luis Gonzalez

I count up to 16 possible spots given that we are at 42 ATM.  I expect a couple of small trades just to clear roster space.  We will have to add some players to protect them from the Rule-5 but we will probably have a lot of room to work even after that.

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They need a DH, a RF and another SP.

 

-DH will come from internal (Vaughn)

-SP could come from internal (kopech) but depending on the number of innings he can throw and the development of cease another guy might be needed.

Ideally you have giolito, keuchel, dunning, cease and kopech being the guys but kopech could be limited to about 120 innings and we don't know how much cease can improve the command. They sox just don't have much pitching depth

-RF has to come from outside the org. There is no standout prospect for the OF in the org and mazara doesn't seem like the answer even if some health issues are resolved. Engel has done a good job but he isn't an everyday corner outfielder.

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On 9/26/2020 at 5:04 PM, Joshua Strong said:

I’m talking about guys with high walk rates, walk rates that are close to 10%. I don’t see Madrigal ever having a walk rate in that area. The Sox need to take more walks. 

I don't care about high walk rates that much. A walk from Madrigal or a single from Madrigal are the same thing. What they could use is a guy who takes more pitches. But we can't be that choosy. This team needed/s a few more guys who can consistently get on base. Madrigal checked that box very well. Vaughn should do the same for this team. Robert taking the next step will help that. Really a perfect type of RF could be someone like Nick Markakis as a stop gap. Not flashy, but gets on base.

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On 9/27/2020 at 6:47 AM, GreatScott82 said:

I think it’s safe to say EE’s option will he declined. That’s an easy fix- Vaughn and Abreu will fill the DH/1B role in 2021. 
 

i personally think the starting pitching addition is an easy fix too. Sign Trevor Bauer. 
 

However, this right field dilemma is really standing out for most of us. I think it’s safe to say we are tired of platoons and stop gaps etc... Many of us were hoping Mookie hit free agency with the Sox having a seat at the table. And last year we were hoping for a Bryce Harper signing. But this off-season will be unique as it appears as if RF is the final position player puzzle piece. I don’t want Springer... he was heavily involved in the cheating scandal. And I really want Bauer and we know how he feels about the Astros. lol. Ozuna’s defense scares me, but that dude can still mash. But do they want more one sided players?  is there a team on the midst of a rebuild that has a complete CF/RF that may be available via trade? I’m still at a loss here. 
I do think the Sox will end up re-signing McCann. He holds tremendous value for this lineup and hopefully he is open to take less playing time to stay here.
 

This will be a very important and interesting offseason for Hahn and his staff. He has a lot of trade pieces and not too many holes to fill. A position I haven’t seen this organization be in since the early 2000’s.

I still wonder how a negotiated sign and trade would work in MLB. Let McCann set his market in FA, match what he was going to get, and then trade him to the few teams he was considering. It's zero risk. Someone will take him and we should at least get a mid level prospect back. 

I mean I think very realistically he could net you a David Dahl and/or Garrett Hampson. Solves a UTIL guy and RF (although be it stop gap ala Mazara)

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2 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

I don't care about high walk rates that much. A walk from Madrigal or a single from Madrigal are the same thing. What they could use is a guy who takes more pitches. But we can't be that choosy. This team needed/s a few more guys who can consistently get on base. Madrigal checked that box very well. Vaughn should do the same for this team. Robert taking the next step will help that. Really a perfect type of RF could be someone like Nick Markakis as a stop gap. Not flashy, but gets on base.

Walks don't drive in runs unless the bases are loaded.  I hate it when people act like walks are the same as a base hit.  They are not.

The contact from Madrigal is very nice when the ball gets through.

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14 hours ago, YourWhatHurts said:

Potentially open 40 man spots of now (at 42 currently):

Free Agency: Colome, Gio Gonzalez, McCann, Dyson

Likely Buyouts: EE

Potential Buyouts: Leury

Likely Outrights: McRae

Likely Nontenders: Mazara, Yolmer

Potential Nontenders: Rodon, Cordero

Likely on the edge of the roster due to talent level/performance/options/salary, etc.: Flores, Lopez, Ruiz, Yermin, Zavala, Adolfo, Luis Gonzalez

I count up to 16 possible spots given that we are at 42 ATM.  I expect a couple of small trades just to clear roster space.  We will have to add some players to protect them from the Rule-5 but we will probably have a lot of room to work even after that.

This is a great post. Like the Padres making all these recent trades - at some point - and with no help from no minor league season - we're going to have a roster crunch for the 40 man & have to make some tougher decisions. 

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1 minute ago, BrianAnderson said:

I still wonder how a negotiated sign and trade would work in MLB. Let McCann set his market in FA, match what he was going to get, and then trade him to the few teams he was considering. It's zero risk. Someone will take him and we should at least get a mid level prospect back. 

I mean I think very realistically he could net you a David Dahl and/or Garrett Hampson. Solves a UTIL guy and RF (although be it stop gap ala Mazara)

How does this help the player at all?  IMO there's zero chance something like this makes it into the new CBA.

They need to add trading of draft picks and revamp the QO system.  I would do something like this, and make multiple QOs:

#1 SP QO (e.g. $28M / worth 2 sandwich picks between 1st & 2nd); #3/mid rotation QO (e.g. $15M / worth 2 sandwich picks between 2nd & 3rd); #5 starter QO (e.g. $5M / worth 1 sandwich pick between 3rd & 4th); an all-star position player QO (e.g. $28M / worth 2 sandwich picks between 1st & 2nd), a starting position player QO (e.g. $15M / worth 2 sandwich picks between 2nd & 3rd), a bench player QO (e.g. $3M / worth 1 sandwich pick between 4th & 5th), a closer QO (e.g. $15M / worth 2 sandwich picks between 2nd & 3rd), a setup man QO (e.g. $7M / worth 1 sandwich pick between 3rd & 4th and 1 between 4th & 5th), and a middle reliever QO (e.g. $3M / worth 1 sandwich pick between 4th & 5th)

As long as a team losing a player offered the appropriate QO and the player declined, that team would get a pick plus bonus pool cash.  This adds more money to the draft as well which is good.  But then no team ever loses a pick, so no matter what the team is or what the record is, no signing team ever loses a draft pick.  That is what needs to happen.

Also the arbitration system needs to change quite a bit as well.

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13 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

This is a great post. Like the Padres making all these recent trades - at some point - and with no help from no minor league season - we're going to have a roster crunch for the 40 man & have to make some tougher decisions. 

We will have it a lot easier now (in a bad way) than it would have been.

Burr had TJ and he was looking good.  Hamilton got hurt.  Medeiros failed so far.  Etc. a bunch of our relievers didn't work.  Then Basabe was DFAs etc.  The original roster crunch was a lot scarier because we were thinking there would be more guys on the 40 man.  We are still looking at one though, but IMO probably not until the 2021-2022 offseason.  I'm not sure how many players we will need to protect this year though. 

What's interesting about our 40 man is that so many of the guys on it are real strong contributors already.  Usually 40 man rosters have a ton of weakness on them.  We could probably take about 3/4 of our 40 man roster and compare it to the rest of the league, and in terms of both quality and youth, we have to have one of the top strongest rosters in baseball.

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The Sox scored 306 runs this year.  That was the 5th most in baseball.  And that was with Mazara and EE getting the bulk of the starts at their positions.  While it might be frustrating to not get upgrades at RF and DH, it's hard to call those positions needs when compared to starting pitching.  Lopez, Cease, and Rodon are as unreliable as starters can get, Kopech hasn't pitched in 2+ years, and Dunning is still very inexperienced and will certainly be on an innings limit next year.  IMO a quality starter is priority 1.  After that, see what your budget looks like.

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47 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

I still wonder how a negotiated sign and trade would work in MLB. Let McCann set his market in FA, match what he was going to get, and then trade him to the few teams he was considering. It's zero risk. Someone will take him and we should at least get a mid level prospect back. 

I mean I think very realistically he could net you a David Dahl and/or Garrett Hampson. Solves a UTIL guy and RF (although be it stop gap ala Mazara)

There is zero reason for McCann to go along with that nor the other team to do it. They were willing to sign McCann at X price, not X price + prospect. If he suddenly signs with sox for the same price they offered, and sox immediately try to shop him back, it's not likely to work.

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Robert is built like a corner outfielder and he is only going to box out physically with age.  I don't want to see him diving for line drives in both alleys and risking injury.  Therefore, I would minimize that and put him in RF, then  look for a CF or settle for an improved Adam Engel as everyday CF.   Also, Robert's arm would play in RF more than it does in CF.

In my view, he is the perfect RFer.

Edited by tray
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I am back in this thread to say Bauer needs to wear White Sox. His breakdown of Gio's no no and stab at Timmy shows that he is playing hard to get. He wants us to come after him and woo him. Let's do this dance. 

Edited by SonofaRoache
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38 minutes ago, bmags said:

There is zero reason for McCann to go along with that nor the other team to do it. They were willing to sign McCann at X price, not X price + prospect. If he suddenly signs with sox for the same price they offered, and sox immediately try to shop him back, it's not likely to work.

If you give McCann an extra million and the guarantee you're trading him to the team he wants to go to? I don't see the downside. 

The other team very much so would still pay. if you're giving ... 3 years, $33mm to McCann you will definitely give 3 years, $34mm plus an arm like a Heuer, a pick like Gavin Sheets, Steele Walker, Stiever, Burdi, Alec Hansen, Jake Burger etc. Those meh, maybe, okay, might make a difference, might find it, might fade out prospects. Just enough shine to see the light types. 

 

It's not conventional thinking for baseball, but very normal in NBA. There's definitely a market for McCann, and that market will still be there in the age of NL DH + scarcity at catcher. 

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IMO I'd be happy if we:

Resign Colome

Resign McCaan (but i think we lose him and Collins becomes the back up)

We fill in DH with Vaughn/Abreu

We sign Cespedes and/or Colas and we grab a stop gap for 2021. Brantley, Markakis, etc? someone in that level.

We sign a SP. Hoping for Bauer but I would not hold my breath. Never know though.

Keep Leury/Mendick/ for the bench

Sign a LR pitcher

 

I think unless Rodon shows something this post-season (good luck w/ that) we cut our ties. I think we try Lopez in the BP on a short leash.

Pray that Cease and Dunning progress next year. That Kopech comes back w/ his stuff knowing he will have limited innings.

 

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31 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

If you give McCann an extra million and the guarantee you're trading him to the team he wants to go to? I don't see the downside. 

The other team very much so would still pay. if you're giving ... 3 years, $33mm to McCann you will definitely give 3 years, $34mm plus an arm like a Heuer, a pick like Gavin Sheets, Steele Walker, Stiever, Burdi, Alec Hansen, Jake Burger etc. Those meh, maybe, okay, might make a difference, might find it, might fade out prospects. Just enough shine to see the light types. 

 

It's not conventional thinking for baseball, but very normal in NBA. There's definitely a market for McCann, and that market will still be there in the age of NL DH + scarcity at catcher. 

If they have All-Star seasons under their belt at a notoriously thin position, sure.

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Priority #1: Sign Bauer. If you can't, sign Stroman.  

Priority #2: Acquire a RF.  Trade Dylan Cease, Zack Collins, Bernando Flores and Luiz Gonzalez for Brandon Nimmo and Edwin Diaz. 

Priority #3: Sign another left handed hitting OF for Nimmo/Eloy/Vaughn insurance and bench piece.  Michael Brantley would be nice. He can't play much defense anymore, but do you really need it with Engel/Leury on the bench

Priority $4: Backend SP on cheaper deal.  Quintana would be great.  Wouldn't put him in this category, but I'd nontender Rodon and try to get him back on a super cheap 1 year deal as well.  

SS Anderson, 3B Moncada, DH/1B Abreu,  Eloy LF/DH, Grandal C, Robert CF, Vaughn 1B/DH, Nimmo RF, Madrigal 2B

BN: Brantley, Engel, Leury, FA Backup Catcher/Mercedes

Rotation: Giolito, Bauer/Stroman, Keuchel, Dunning, Quintana with Kopech arriving in June.  Maybe Crochet later in the year.  Maybe Rodon as further insurance.

Pen: Diaz, Bummer, Heuer, Marshall, Foster, Fry, Lopez with Cordero, Burdi, Ruiz, Johnson or perhaps Rodon battling it out for the last spot.  

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2 hours ago, BrianAnderson said:

If you give McCann an extra million and the guarantee you're trading him to the team he wants to go to? I don't see the downside. 

The other team very much so would still pay. if you're giving ... 3 years, $33mm to McCann you will definitely give 3 years, $34mm plus an arm like a Heuer, a pick like Gavin Sheets, Steele Walker, Stiever, Burdi, Alec Hansen, Jake Burger etc. Those meh, maybe, okay, might make a difference, might find it, might fade out prospects. Just enough shine to see the light types. 

 

It's not conventional thinking for baseball, but very normal in NBA. There's definitely a market for McCann, and that market will still be there in the age of NL DH + scarcity at catcher. 

It's normal in the NBA because of the salary cap. NBA allows teams to re-sign their own players at higher amounts and past their salary cap in ways teams cannot with free agents. Sign and trade is enticing to players because they can earn more, and allows teams losing the players to get back an asset.

In baseball...the other team would just sign them to the higher amount and not part with a prospect for no reason.

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1 hour ago, bmags said:

It's normal in the NBA because of the salary cap. NBA allows teams to re-sign their own players at higher amounts and past their salary cap in ways teams cannot with free agents. Sign and trade is enticing to players because they can earn more, and allows teams losing the players to get back an asset.

In baseball...the other team would just sign them to the higher amount and not part with a prospect for no reason.

I was thinking... I don't think that you can do that in baseball...

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1 hour ago, bmags said:

It's normal in the NBA because of the salary cap. NBA allows teams to re-sign their own players at higher amounts and past their salary cap in ways teams cannot with free agents. Sign and trade is enticing to players because they can earn more, and allows teams losing the players to get back an asset.

In baseball...the other team would just sign them to the higher amount and not part with a prospect for no reason.

Yep, this is exactly correct.

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I still wouldn't mind taking a flyer on Puig in RF in 2021 if he can be a team player.

He and Abreu seem to have gotten along fine as teammates in Cuba.

 

 

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Going into next season

1.) Starting Pitching (Bauer or Quintana) 

2.) Right Field - Brantley or a trade candidate maybe someone like Bryan Reynolds with the Pirates with change of scenery swap for pitching (Lopez comes to mind).

3.) Manager

4.) Catcher - Do they re-sign McCann or do they let Collins get his crack at it.

DH will sort it self out with Vaughn stepping into a rotation at 1B/DH with Abreu and Grandal, The pen could use additional veteran presence but thats what the deadline is for. 

DH - Abreu
C - Grandal#
1B - Vaughn
2B - Madrigal
SS - Anderson
3B - Moncada#
LF - Jimenez
CF - Robert
RF - FA (Brantley*)

C - FA (McCann) or Collins*
UT - Garcia#
UT - Mendick
OF - Engel

SP - Giolito
SP - Keuchel*
SP - FA (Bauer or Quintana*)
SP - Dunning
SP - Cease or Lopez or Rodon*

CL - Bummer*
SU - Heuer
SU - Foster
SU - Marshall
MR - Cordero
MR - Fry*
RP - Burdi
LR - Crochet*

Stiever & Kopech as depth in the minors. 
 

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I like the type of bat that Brantley brings but damn if I'm not scared of constantly signing the guy the year after their last competent one before they retire.

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16 minutes ago, bmags said:

I like the type of bat that Brantley brings but damn if I'm not scared of constantly signing the guy the year after their last competent one before they retire.

So long as we acquired another OF and Brantley can be more of a 4th OF/DH/injury replacement, it works alot better.  I like the idea of Nimmo + Brantley.  Brantley can probably be had for an Edwin Encarnacion type deal this offseason.  1/$12-13M with a vesting/club option for $13-14M.  

Nimmo is your everyday RF.  Eloy gets more DH at bats with Brantley in LF occasionally.  Brantley fills in whenever Nimmo and Eloy get hurt, which has been a decent amount in their careers.  Brantley plays everyday until Vaughn arrives. 

Maybe he prefers to find a place he's guaranteed everyday at bats, or maybe he likes a situation like that on an up and coming team.  Worth a look though, IMO.  

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