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2021 Offseason Prediction: Who We Lose and What Will Be Our Needs?

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14 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

So long as we acquired another OF and Brantley can be more of a 4th OF/DH/injury replacement, it works alot better.  I like the idea of Nimmo + Brantley.  Brantley can probably be had for an Edwin Encarnacion type deal this offseason.  1/$12-13M with a vesting/club option for $13-14M.  

Nimmo is your everyday RF.  Eloy gets more DH at bats with Brantley in LF occasionally.  Brantley fills in whenever Nimmo and Eloy get hurt, which has been a decent amount in their careers.  Brantley plays everyday until Vaughn arrives. 

Maybe he prefers to find a place he's guaranteed everyday at bats, or maybe he likes a situation like that on an up and coming team.  Worth a look though, IMO.  

Nimmo isn't that expensive, but if we get Nimmo I'd like the rest of our resources pumped into starters/bullpen.

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1 minute ago, bmags said:

Nimmo isn't that expensive, but if we get Nimmo I'd like the rest of our resources pumped into starters/bullpen.

Yeah, I mean, I proposed also adding Bauer/Stroman and acquiring Edwin Diaz with Nimmo in my post earlier.  So I got that covered.  But yeah --- who knows if JR will be willing to rock a $140-150M payroll.  He should be, but I understand many will be skeptical of that.  

Problem with a Eloy/Robert/Nimmo OF is that you can't expect those dudes to play 150+ games.  So a 4th OF that is capable of playing everyday when necessary and also one that can DH and help us push ELoy to DH a little more makes a ton of sense.  But definitely a luxury.  

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Even though I think the best course of action is to keep the young players, if the Mets choose to trade DeGrom after the ownership change, I wonder if we could offer enough without trading Crochet, Vaughn, Kelly, Stiever or Kopech.  If we could trade for DeGrom and sign Stroman, that would be awesome for a lot of reasons, including the fact that we would still have impact SP very close to MLB ready.

Cease + Dunning + Thompson/Dalquist/Vera + Lopez for DeGrom + Familia (salary dump incentive)

Rotation: DeGrom - Giolito - Keuchel - Stroman - Crochet + Bullpen as 5th starter (because we have all these innings eaters now)

AAA Rotation: Kopech - Stiever

A Rotation: Kelly - 2 of Thompson/Dalquist/Vera

When Kopech comes up, he piggybacks Crochet, and then after the season we trade a SP.

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5 hours ago, Perfect Vision said:

The Sox scored 306 runs this year.  That was the 5th most in baseball.  And that was with Mazara and EE getting the bulk of the starts at their positions.  While it might be frustrating to not get upgrades at RF and DH, it's hard to call those positions needs when compared to starting pitching.  Lopez, Cease, and Rodon are as unreliable as starters can get, Kopech hasn't pitched in 2+ years, and Dunning is still very inexperienced and will certainly be on an innings limit next year.  IMO a quality starter is priority 1.  After that, see what your budget looks like.

I agree. With vaughn one of the holes will be filled and one bad spot in the lineup is ok, it just shouldn't be as bad as mazara this year. 

Just get on OK guy who can produce a 100 wrc+ there and the team is fine.

Back of the rotation is the bigger issue, you just can't have 3 starters who regularly only go 4 or any pen will burn out no matter who manages it.

Either some guys step up or you need to get a new guy. I would like to see one good addition so you have a decent 6th guy for depth because there will be injuries too.

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7 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yeah, I mean, I proposed also adding Bauer/Stroman and acquiring Edwin Diaz with Nimmo in my post earlier.  So I got that covered.  But yeah --- who knows if JR will be willing to rock a $140-150M payroll.  He should be, but I understand many will be skeptical of that.  

Problem with a Eloy/Robert/Nimmo OF is that you can't expect those dudes to play 150+ games.  So a 4th OF that is capable of playing everyday when necessary and also one that can DH and help us push ELoy to DH a little more makes a ton of sense.  But definitely a luxury.  

I kinda wonder what Ketel Marte would take for his last year. He should be pretty good in RF defensively and could go back to two years ago.

Pitchers I'd go after Bauer but Stroman scares me. Undersized RH pitcher aging. I'd rather be risky but safer from $$ wise going after Odorizzi who obviously didn't have a year to go after. Tradewise, who knows, maybe Lynn becomes affordable. Maybe Wheeler goes on market, or corbin or some other NL east pitchers.

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On 9/28/2020 at 8:48 AM, BrianAnderson said:

I don't care about high walk rates that much. A walk from Madrigal or a single from Madrigal are the same thing. What they could use is a guy who takes more pitches. But we can't be that choosy. This team needed/s a few more guys who can consistently get on base. Madrigal checked that box very well. Vaughn should do the same for this team. Robert taking the next step will help that. Really a perfect type of RF could be someone like Nick Markakis as a stop gap. Not flashy, but gets on base.

If most of the team isn’t hitting, they’re not getting on base at all it seems like. Grandal can go through a slump with the bat but you can still count on him to take his bases. If you have a lineup with guys like Anderson, Robert, even Madrigal to a degree, you need guys to balance them out so to speak.

8% is considered to be an average walk rate. 10% is consider to be above average. The position players the Sox bring in need to have a walk rate of above 8%. 

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Let’s update the original post now that the 2020 season has come to a conclusion. 

The purpose of this post is to summarize who the Sox lose after this 2020 season and showcase what our needs will be in free agency and/or trades. There’s obviously some obstacles and unknowns, like Rule 5 draft, the 40-man roster and offseason decisions. But I figured I’d try to compile that and ask for feedback, corrections and opinion here. So after 2020, here’s who the Sox lose:

End of Contracts:

C James McCann

BP Alex Colome

BP Ross Detweiler (already gone)

 OF Jarrod Dyson

 

Club Option for 2021:

BP Steve Cishek ($6.75 million - already gone)

DH Edwin Encarnacion ($12 million - not likely picked up)

SP Gio Gonzalez ($7 million - not likely picked up)

FLEX Leury Garcia ($3.5 million)


Late Arbitration Year:

RF Nomar Mazara (last arbitration yr for 2021)

INF Yolmer Sanchez (last arbitration yr)

 SP Carlos Rodon (last arbitration yr, not likely, over $6 million)


So what we return for sure in 2021, and what are our needs are the following:

Catcher: Yasmani Grandal backed by Zack Collins. Maybe Yermin Mercedes as a third C/DH. Considerations to resign McCann. Zavala is fourth depth catcher in organization. Pending Actions: Decide on whether to offer McCann. Decide on backup catchers for 2021 and beyond.

First Base: Jose Abreu returns as starter. Probably much fewer opportunities for Grandal, since he will be more everyday catcher compared to 2020 if McCann is not signed. Feeling like Andrew Vaughn will be the backup first basemen and alternate at DH also with Abreu. I’m thinking Edwin prohibits them development of Vaughn and only gets one year with Sox. Minor league is Gavin Sheets, who would be a likely trade commodity due to Abreu and Vaughn.

Designated Hitter: Sox may take the option on Edwin for another $12 million, but probably not after 2020 debacle. DH could be a rotated position between Vaughn, Abreu, Collins, and maybe Eloy (if Sox land a flexible starting RF that can play LF too). Yermin Mercedes is also third catcher and spots well to the DH position. 

Second base: Cheap position for the Sox and good talent there. No reason to change a thing from Madrigal and Mendick. Seems like Leury Garcia and Yolmer Sanchez may be too expensive an option since there may be cheaper options in the minors (although Yolmer may have a better chance due to 3b). 
 

Shortstop: Tim Anderson and a backup, possibly Mendick and maybe a Yolmer, but they may cut Sanchez for a cheaper option there. Anderson and Mendick may be enough. 
 

Third Base: Yoan Moncada and a backup, Mendick, and maybe another option like Sanchez, or another farm piece. 
 

Outfield: Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert and To Be Determined RF. Mazara has One more arbitration year, but it seems unlikely at this stage that they pursue that with his production. He did play better towards the end of the year, so this may be a wait and see. Will need a starting RF in offseason, preferably left handed bat, and at least average to plus defender and athleticism. Sox lose Dyson, but may keep Engle on for another backup season due to arbitration. Leury Garcia is an option, but Sox should pursue a starter here in the offseason, in my opinion. Micker Adolfo, Blake Rutherford,  and Luis Gonzalez are the farm OF to consider as depth. Not a lot of great free agents out there (Springer, Ozuna, Pederson). May have to consider a trade partner to get exactly what they want.  Pending actions: Decide if we go another season of platoon Mazara and Engle. If not, Sox need to consider FA options or trade partners for one. 
 

Starting Pitchers: Giolito, Keuchel, Cease and Dunning are for sure starters in 2021. Assuming we don’t take the option on a Gio Gonzalez. Rodon is in his last arbitration and he will cost over $5 million per year with no signs of staying healthy. After an awful couple of season and now playoffs, Sox have to move on here. He could be considered for long relief bullpen, but there are probably cheaper, more dependable options there. Reynaldo Lopez is in arbitration 1, and may be on roster. He could compete for that #5 starter next year, but he’s at the end of his leash. Especially, with Kopech possibly getting the promotion to starter sometime next season. Crochet if healthy definitely should figure into the starting pitching role long term. He may need to start out in minors as a starter first if this is the route. Depth at starter in the minors will be Jonathan Stiever, Bernardo Flores Jr. , and Jimmy Lambert.  Free agency looks like Trevor Bauer is top of the line.  Other lesser considerations would be Marcus Stroman, Masahiro Tanaka, Taijuan Walker, Mike Minor, Robbie Ray, Jake Odorizzi, and Jose Quintana. Pending actions: In my mind, Sox have to land at least one top 3 starter for next season as illustrated by playoffs. that would probably only qualify as Bauer and Stroman. That would provide depth, sustain a winning record hopefully and allow some of the youngster to move down to #4 or 5 in rotation. A one year deal to Bauer would look amazing and he’ll our rotation grow up for a season.

Bullpen Pitchers: Losing Colome will be biggest question mark next season on who fills out the closer role. A healthy Aaron Bummer is the likely choice there. Obviously, that leaves a spot open in the set-up role. Returning High performer bullpen pitchers In addition to Bummer will be Matt Foster, Cody Heuer, and Evan Marshall. Crochet looks here but also as a starter, so a decision on him looms. Bullpen arms that need further work and probably return are Jimmy Cordero, Jace Fry and Zack Burdi. Sox farm hands that time may come are Tyler Johnson, or one of the young starters may get a bullpen shot first. Sox definitely have some work in the offseason free agency bolstering their bullpen, especially for a lefty option (right now only Bummer and Fry for 2021). Pending actions: decision on whether to resign Colome. Sign more high leverage arms to add to roster. 
 

In summary: Key free agency and/or trades for 2021 for starting Right Fielder, bullpen arms, another starting pitcher if the Sox. Movement within the organization should provide depth at all the positions not mentioned. 

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On 9/28/2020 at 3:15 PM, YourWhatHurts said:

Even though I think the best course of action is to keep the young players, if the Mets choose to trade DeGrom after the ownership change, I wonder if we could offer enough without trading Crochet, Vaughn, Kelly, Stiever or Kopech.  If we could trade for DeGrom and sign Stroman, that would be awesome for a lot of reasons, including the fact that we would still have impact SP very close to MLB ready.

Cease + Dunning + Thompson/Dalquist/Vera + Lopez for DeGrom + Familia (salary dump incentive)

Rotation: DeGrom - Giolito - Keuchel - Stroman - Crochet + Bullpen as 5th starter (because we have all these innings eaters now)

AAA Rotation: Kopech - Stiever

A Rotation: Kelly - 2 of Thompson/Dalquist/Vera

When Kopech comes up, he piggybacks Crochet, and then after the season we trade a SP.

That would be a wet dream of a trade but I seriously doubt the Mets would bite on that. 

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39 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

 

That would be a wet dream of a trade but I seriously doubt the Mets would bite on that. 

I'm not sure the Mets would trade DeGrom anyway.

It's important to understand though that DeGrom -- as great as he is -- has a contract that a lot teams won't take on regardless.  And new owners especially, but really no owners, want to pay part of a guy's salary to make him go away when they already know they don't have to.  The difference between say the diminished-stuff Greinke deal or the Shields deal, etc. was that the GMs were going to have to pay down the contract anyway just to move him.  With DeGrom, the new owner won't have to, so he probably will not want to, but that contract isn't very team friendly.  He can opt out after 2022 and is guaranteed $71M for 2021-22, and then if he doesn't he's guaranteed at least $103.5M for 2021-23 because it doesn't look like there is a buyout on the last year. 

2021 33 New York Mets $35,500,000    
2022 34 New York Mets $35,500,000   may opt out after 2022 season
2023 35 New York Mets $32,500,000    
2024 36 New York Mets *$32,500,000   $32.5M Team Option

I think he would bring back a haul but it definitely would not be Sale-like.  When you look at a package of Cease + Dunning + Thompson/Dalquist/Vera + Lopez for DeGrom + Familia (salary dump incentive) ... it's hard to imagine another team willing to take on all of that salary even with the opt out both willing and wanting to beat that IMO.

I'll update the fantasy a bit:

DeGrom - Giolito - Bauer/Stroman - Keuchel - Rodon / FA project as a bridge to Kopech

Edited by YourWhatHurts

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On 9/28/2020 at 3:15 PM, YourWhatHurts said:

Even though I think the best course of action is to keep the young players, if the Mets choose to trade DeGrom after the ownership change, I wonder if we could offer enough without trading Crochet, Vaughn, Kelly, Stiever or Kopech.  If we could trade for DeGrom and sign Stroman, that would be awesome for a lot of reasons, including the fact that we would still have impact SP very close to MLB ready.

Cease + Dunning + Thompson/Dalquist/Vera + Lopez for DeGrom + Familia (salary dump incentive)

Rotation: DeGrom - Giolito - Keuchel - Stroman - Crochet + Bullpen as 5th starter (because we have all these innings eaters now)

AAA Rotation: Kopech - Stiever

A Rotation: Kelly - 2 of Thompson/Dalquist/Vera

When Kopech comes up, he piggybacks Crochet, and then after the season we trade a SP.

If another team had Cease Dunning and Lopez, I wouldn't take that package for Gio, let alone DeGrom. Even with salary considerations. 

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38 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

If another team had Cease Dunning and Lopez, I wouldn't take that package for Gio, let alone DeGrom. Even with salary considerations. 

And that’s why DeGrom is unlikely to be moved. With that contract he isn’t bringing back Luis Robert, and the Mets shouldn’t move him for a middling offer without a great headliner or two:

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1 hour ago, YourWhatHurts said:

I'm not sure the Mets would trade DeGrom anyway.

It's important to understand though that DeGrom -- as great as he is -- has a contract that a lot teams won't take on regardless.  And new owners especially, but really no owners, want to pay part of a guy's salary to make him go away when they already know they don't have to.  The difference between say the diminished-stuff Greinke deal or the Shields deal, etc. was that the GMs were going to have to pay down the contract anyway just to move him.  With DeGrom, the new owner won't have to, so he probably will not want to, but that contract isn't very team friendly.  He can opt out after 2022 and is guaranteed $71M for 2021-22, and then if he doesn't he's guaranteed at least $103.5M for 2021-23 because it doesn't look like there is a buyout on the last year. 

2021 33 New York Mets $35,500,000    
2022 34 New York Mets $35,500,000   may opt out after 2022 season
2023 35 New York Mets $32,500,000    
2024 36 New York Mets *$32,500,000   $32.5M Team Option

I think he would bring back a haul but it definitely would not be Sale-like.  When you look at a package of Cease + Dunning + Thompson/Dalquist/Vera + Lopez for DeGrom + Familia (salary dump incentive) ... it's hard to imagine another team willing to take on all of that salary even with the opt out both willing and wanting to beat that IMO.

I'll update the fantasy a bit:

DeGrom - Giolito - Bauer/Stroman - Keuchel - Rodon / FA project as a bridge to Kopech

With the new Mets ownership, I don't see them needing to dump contracts.  They already rescinded their paycuts for personnel.

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3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

And that’s why DeGrom is unlikely to be moved. With that contract he isn’t bringing back Luis Robert, and the Mets shouldn’t move him for a middling offer without a great headliner or two:

Exactly. But if I'm spending 32 million it is for Bauer while keeping good prospects, or using them to get a RF. Obviously Bauer is no DeGrom, but he is good enough for what we need. 

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4 hours ago, soxfan2014 said:

Who would you offer a QO to? I would think Colome is the only one who gets one.

Do we know how much a QO will be this year?

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Do the Sox sign or trade for a new closer? Colome certainly had some luck and that was not sustainable but that near perfect Era and saves record will be hard to replace next year whether you bring him back or someone else. 

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EE, Rodon, Yolmer, Mazara, & McCann gone.  

FO makes a good offer to McCann but he finds a starting job elsewhere. 

Colome returns on 2/$25ish.  (Reliable, team is on the verge, he knows the org.) 

Stroman & Quintana added to the rotation.  (Gio, DK, Stroman, Dunning, Q)

Quality defensive back up catcher is signed.  

Cease, Stiever, Lopez, Collins, Mendick & Rutherford are all shopped hard for a LH RH, but are ultimately traded for cost controlled pitching depth. 

Leury's option is picked up, he and Engel platoon in RF.  I'm 50/50 on Mazara returning if no upgrade is found.  Yolmer is non-tendered but could return before spring training. 

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52 minutes ago, SouthWallace said:

EE, Rodon, Yolmer, Mazara, & McCann gone.  

FO makes a good offer to McCann but he finds a starting job elsewhere. 

Colome returns on 2/$25ish.  (Reliable, team is on the verge, he knows the org.) 

Stroman & Quintana added to the rotation.  (Gio, DK, Stroman, Dunning, Q)

Quality defensive back up catcher is signed.  

Cease, Stiever, Lopez, Collins, Mendick & Rutherford are all shopped hard for a LH RH, but are ultimately traded for cost controlled pitching depth. 

Leury's option is picked up, he and Engel platoon in RF.  I'm 50/50 on Mazara returning if no upgrade is found.  Yolmer is non-tendered but could return before spring training. 

Depressing

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10 hours ago, soxfan2014 said:

Who would you offer a QO to? I would think Colome is the only one who gets one.

No one.  Colome is not going to be worth something like $18 million a year in a covid world.

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4 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

Do the Sox sign or trade for a new closer? Colome certainly had some luck and that was not sustainable but that near perfect Era and saves record will be hard to replace next year whether you bring him back or someone else. 

Even if he regressed to his historic norm, which are still pretty good, he allows to you utlize guys like Bummer, Marshall, and Heuer in earlier innings.  This allows you to still have great pens for games where our young starters blow up early.

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1 hour ago, SouthWallace said:

EE, Rodon, Yolmer, Mazara, & McCann gone.  

FO makes a good offer to McCann but he finds a starting job elsewhere. 

Colome returns on 2/$25ish.  (Reliable, team is on the verge, he knows the org.) 

Stroman & Quintana added to the rotation.  (Gio, DK, Stroman, Dunning, Q)

Quality defensive back up catcher is signed.  

Cease, Stiever, Lopez, Collins, Mendick & Rutherford are all shopped hard for a LH RH, but are ultimately traded for cost controlled pitching depth. 

Leury's option is picked up, he and Engel platoon in RF.  I'm 50/50 on Mazara returning if no upgrade is found.  Yolmer is non-tendered but could return before spring training. 

Leury isn’t good against RHP, so that would be a pretty terrible RF platoon.  Shouldn’t be that hard to find a better option for cheap this coming offseason.

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10 hours ago, soxfan2014 said:

Who would you offer a QO to? I would think Colome is the only one who gets one.

Colome won't come close.  Sox will make a solid offer of maybe 12 or 13 per season for probably two years.

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1 hour ago, SouthWallace said:

EE, Rodon, Yolmer, Mazara, & McCann gone.  

FO makes a good offer to McCann but he finds a starting job elsewhere. 

Colome returns on 2/$25ish.  (Reliable, team is on the verge, he knows the org.) 

Stroman & Quintana added to the rotation.  (Gio, DK, Stroman, Dunning, Q)

Quality defensive back up catcher is signed.  

Cease, Stiever, Lopez, Collins, Mendick & Rutherford are all shopped hard for a LH RH, but are ultimately traded for cost controlled pitching depth. 

Leury's option is picked up, he and Engel platoon in RF.  I'm 50/50 on Mazara returning if no upgrade is found.  Yolmer is non-tendered but could return before spring training. 

The people you're trading for pitching depth are your pitching depth. They just need to actually develop.

Trading Mendick and Collins makes no sense when you lose Yolmer and McCann.

Unless you're bringing in a left handed rightfielder, trading those young pieces makes very little sense based on the small sample size of 2020.

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47 minutes ago, Quin said:

The people you're trading for pitching depth are your pitching depth. They just need to actually develop.

Trading Mendick and Collins makes no sense when you lose Yolmer and McCann.

Unless you're bringing in a left handed rightfielder, trading those young pieces makes very little sense based on the small sample size of 2020.

I dont foresee coaching changes this winter, so my hopes that those arms do develop is very low.  Cease & Lopez both need some tutelage outside of Don Cooper IMO, IE Giolito.

I don't believe that they see Collins as a viable catching option.  Nor do they see Mendick as anything but a 2B.  I'm basing these assessments on how they were or weren't used this season.  I firmly believe they bring in a cheap vet C to replace McCann.  It won't be Collins.

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