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BrianAnderson

Gambling Thread (MLB Version)

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With gambling now legal in IL, i thought I'd start a MLB only gambling thread. I send my picks out to a group of guys everyday on a text thread, I figure might as well send them here too. (obvious disclaimer, don't take my advice, or do so at your own peril)

 

The way i underwrite my picks is via a number of factors, but mostly focused on things like groundball vs. fly ball, exit velocities, xWoba, etc. etc. It's very stats driven. I've been hitting at a nice clip this year, so figure why not share. I'll try and update daily. Feel free to share your angles and thoughts!

 

Tonights Games: 

Padres/Angels - Heaney has pretty bad splits, don't love what Clevinger has done, walking guys, settled down of late. Angels not hitting of late, near the bottom. Staying away from Clevinger tonight, but really liking the Padres TT. Angels bullpen bad too. Padres Over 4.5TT

Passing on other games, considered the Blue Jays ML - they haven't been hitting well of late, but do very well against Lefties. Sox also hit lefties well. I think we should put some runs on the board tonight, but I don't like chasing the Sox. Maybe game over. But passing there too, just keeping the money in the pocket. 

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4 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Tonight I took the over ✔️and took some HR odds.

Got Merrifield at 700

Franco at 500

Soler at 340

Robert 460 ✔️

Keep em coming 

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16 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Tonight I took the over and took some HR odds.

Got Merrifield at 700

Franco at 500

Soler at 340

Robert 460

Can the Robert one pay +920 based on the distance?

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Just now, BrianAnderson said:

Can the Robert one pay +920 based on the distance?

I wish.  It was insanely hard hit.

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16 hours ago, BrianAnderson said:

With gambling now legal in IL, i thought I'd start a MLB only gambling thread. I send my picks out to a group of guys everyday on a text thread, I figure might as well send them here too. (obvious disclaimer, don't take my advice, or do so at your own peril)

 

The way i underwrite my picks is via a number of factors, but mostly focused on things like groundball vs. fly ball, exit velocities, xWoba, etc. etc. It's very stats driven. I've been hitting at a nice clip this year, so figure why not share. I'll try and update daily. Feel free to share your angles and thoughts!

 

Tonights Games: 

Padres/Angels - Heaney has pretty bad splits, don't love what Clevinger has done, walking guys, settled down of late. Angels not hitting of late, near the bottom. Staying away from Clevinger tonight, but really liking the Padres TT. Angels bullpen bad too. Padres Over 4.5TT

Passing on other games, considered the Blue Jays ML - they haven't been hitting well of late, but do very well against Lefties. Sox also hit lefties well. I think we should put some runs on the board tonight, but I don't like chasing the Sox. Maybe game over. But passing there too, just keeping the money in the pocket. 

Wish I played the ones I kept my money in the pocket & not the Padres. Such is the life of gambling. Clean sweep on the bets in my pocket, 0-1 on the played game

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I bet on the Sox runline every night. Unfortunately, I also do baseball parlays and also bet on soccer and tennis otherwise I would be way up I would think haha

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the parlay. my arch enemy. the rush of winning a 4/5 leg parlay is something that can't be recreated. unfortunately they pay well for a reason. I'm currently trying to be smarter with my bets, keeping the risk tolerance lower. But man do i love parlays lol. 

 

Tonight's games. I'm skipping the DH games, just don't like the risk. I think a lot of the value in games is attacking weak bullpens and DH are just too risky in terms of that and lineup construction. 

 

playing a few games tonight: 

I'm taking our hometown Sox. I keep not betting them because I don't like having it ruin a good thing, but I think tonight is a good opportunity against Singer. He hasn't been terrible but his average exit velocity and some of his underlying stats really plays into the Sox type of play. Add to that the Royals offense has been in the gutter? Sox bullpen has been iffy as of late. taking Sox F5 ML

Lots of runs to be had in the Phillies and Mets game. Porcello and Arrieta are past their prime and both offenses are humming. Mets bullpen actually okay, phillies not so much. Playing F5 over here. 

Lastly, give me the Cubs/Cards under F5. Those are two elite pitchers going today. Maybe there are runs, but Cubs offense chases a lot and Flaherty will have any team chasing. 

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41 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

the parlay. my arch enemy. the rush of winning a 4/5 leg parlay is something that can't be recreated. unfortunately they pay well for a reason. I'm currently trying to be smarter with my bets, keeping the risk tolerance lower. But man do i love parlays lol. 

 

Tonight's games. I'm skipping the DH games, just don't like the risk. I think a lot of the value in games is attacking weak bullpens and DH are just too risky in terms of that and lineup construction. 

 

playing a few games tonight: 

I'm taking our hometown Sox. I keep not betting them because I don't like having it ruin a good thing, but I think tonight is a good opportunity against Singer. He hasn't been terrible but his average exit velocity and some of his underlying stats really plays into the Sox type of play. Add to that the Royals offense has been in the gutter? Sox bullpen has been iffy as of late. taking Sox F5 ML

Lots of runs to be had in the Phillies and Mets game. Porcello and Arrieta are past their prime and both offenses are humming. Mets bullpen actually okay, phillies not so much. Playing F5 over here. 

Lastly, give me the Cubs/Cards under F5. Those are two elite pitchers going today. Maybe there are runs, but Cubs offense chases a lot and Flaherty will have any team chasing. 

I also never parlay the Sox. I just started really getting into betting more last week. I usually do one baseball parlay a day for $10 and pick about 5-6 games. One team has managed to hurt me every day. Early on, it was because they didn't score enough to cover the runline so now I just do moneyline.

Also, my friends just turned me over to Fanduel and Draft Kings a couple of days ago. I love the random promotions they run there. The Sox the other day, you can do a max bet of $23 for a +45 run line, there is a current one for the KC Chiefs for +110 on 9/10, max bet of $50 with a $95 payout, and I got the Lakers tonight for -110 spread, also max bet of 50 for a payout of $95. Free money lol

Edited by soxfan2014

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Not like a whole lot today. too much juice on a lot of these games. 

taking the cardinals over cubs. glasnow k's over. 

 

I really think there may be sneaky value in a marlins, rockies, and maybe, maybe the royals, but not chasing bad baseball. 

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Forgot to add the Glasnow K's to the overall record.

Overall record : 7-2 -- in the words of the late Farmer - let's keep the line moving! I'll have picks probably around noon or early afternoon. 

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2 hours ago, BrianAnderson said:

Forgot to add the Glasnow K's to the overall record.

Overall record : 7-2 -- in the words of the late Farmer - let's keep the line moving! I'll have picks probably around noon or early afternoon. 

For today:

Sox Run Line (as usual) of -1.5 at +102 odds. Potential payout of $40.40.

Today's Parlay:

Run Line Rays at -1.5 against Nationals +104

Money Line Yankees vs Blue Jays +100

Run Line Mets vs O's -1.5 +102

Money Line Rangers vs Angels +106

Run Line Padres vs Rockies -1.5 -120

Run Line Dodgers vs Diamondbacks -2.0 -110

Potential Payout of $445.71.

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Picks: 

Dodgers run line - this is an easy one obviously. its about as big of a mismatch as there can be in baseball... only worries are Buehler's exit velocity and high flyball %. I can see him getting dinged for a 2-3 run homer possibly, but outside of that he's been good. Hopefully when he gives up the homer it's bases empty. Outside of that this should be a rout. weaver has been trash, serving up 11% barrels which is just entirely too high and the dodgers are too good to lose this one. 

Jays over Yanks - value is good here. I think it's a slight edge to the jays here. happ has been better of late, and actually his underlying numbers show he should continue to improve, it's just the jays are top 5 in league in offense. they are taking walks, not chasing, and mashing. while the going is good, got to pile in. 

Indians run line - this one is going to be very, very small. almost in pass territory. --- **** Junis is on mound today, not singer, all about the same though *****but the indians haven't really been very good. they were bottom of the league, now of late are league average. mckenzie on mound has been a rock star in all metrics, however still just his 4th start. that scares me with that juice. paying him like he's done this for years. Royals have been trash without soler and the team is just bad. bullpen is bad. etc. etc. feels like a fools bet to play this too big. but royals are so bad that i think i'll end up small, probably ML too. 

On fence here because of fantasy implications playing with me... but i think you have to take the brewers over tigers. everythign is trending towards a brewers breakout soon. bullpen looking better, offense starting to click, etc. tigers are opposite. they had a nice run for a two week stretch but their offense and bullpen turning back into the tigers. I think i have to play brewers ML here. but another small play. 

 

PASSING ON:

Passing on: Padres - juice is high, clev has been better of late, but his metrics don't support the juice/name recongnition in vegas at this point. rockies on the road aren't great, good names, but they chase too much. I'm waiting to see the k props if it's at 4.5 i'll take a stab at clev on a small bet. 

Passing on our Sox - toyed with a game over, or maybe a sox TT over, but pirates bulpen better of late and not sure what you'll get out of a musgrove. all of his numbers are trash, but i still love him. I'll have fun watching, but with money in my pocket.

Braves/Marlins - marlins f5, however passing on this too. everything lines up right for marlins here. sixto has been on fire, kyle wright should be in AAA if not for terrible pitching out of braves. but marlins offense is really bad of late and braves offense is top 5 as well. pair that wtih sixto's third start overall? meh.. i can see the marlins being up early, but not enough to take my money and play it. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, BrianAnderson said:

Picks: 

Dodgers run line - this is an easy one obviously. its about as big of a mismatch as there can be in baseball... only worries are Buehler's exit velocity and high flyball %. I can see him getting dinged for a 2-3 run homer possibly, but outside of that he's been good. Hopefully when he gives up the homer it's bases empty. Outside of that this should be a rout. weaver has been trash, serving up 11% barrels which is just entirely too high and the dodgers are too good to lose this one. 

Jays over Yanks - value is good here. I think it's a slight edge to the jays here. happ has been better of late, and actually his underlying numbers show he should continue to improve, it's just the jays are top 5 in league in offense. they are taking walks, not chasing, and mashing. while the going is good, got to pile in. 

Indians run line - this one is going to be very, very small. almost in pass territory. --- **** Junis is on mound today, not singer, all about the same though *****but the indians haven't really been very good. they were bottom of the league, now of late are league average. mckenzie on mound has been a rock star in all metrics, however still just his 4th start. that scares me with that juice. paying him like he's done this for years. Royals have been trash without soler and the team is just bad. bullpen is bad. etc. etc. feels like a fools bet to play this too big. but royals are so bad that i think i'll end up small, probably ML too. 

On fence here because of fantasy implications playing with me... but i think you have to take the brewers over tigers. everythign is trending towards a brewers breakout soon. bullpen looking better, offense starting to click, etc. tigers are opposite. they had a nice run for a two week stretch but their offense and bullpen turning back into the tigers. I think i have to play brewers ML here. but another small play. 

 

PASSING ON:

Passing on: Padres - juice is high, clev has been better of late, but his metrics don't support the juice/name recongnition in vegas at this point. rockies on the road aren't great, good names, but they chase too much. I'm waiting to see the k props if it's at 4.5 i'll take a stab at clev on a small bet. 

Passing on our Sox - toyed with a game over, or maybe a sox TT over, but pirates bulpen better of late and not sure what you'll get out of a musgrove. all of his numbers are trash, but i still love him. I'll have fun watching, but with money in my pocket.

Braves/Marlins - marlins f5, however passing on this too. everything lines up right for marlins here. sixto has been on fire, kyle wright should be in AAA if not for terrible pitching out of braves. but marlins offense is really bad of late and braves offense is top 5 as well. pair that wtih sixto's third start overall? meh.. i can see the marlins being up early, but not enough to take my money and play it. 

 

 

Good luck.

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2 hours ago, Soxbadger said:

What book are people using in IL? 

 

I use all Bet Rivers, Fan Duel and Draft Kings since they can have different odds and sometimes cool promotions (like getting the Chiefs for a spread of +101 points for Thursday with a max bet up to 50, payout of 95 so a no-brainer bet really). One of the sites had a run line of +45 for the Sox last week and I think the Lakers at +101 as well, paying out 95. So I look at all 3 apps after deciding what bets I want to make to check the odds. 

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2 hours ago, Soxbadger said:

What book are people using in IL? 

 

I just used Rivers. No real thought put into it. Might not be a bad idea to open a few just to utilize the bonuses as they are all clamoring to build that client list. I know personally i got the $250 rivers bonus and there were no strings attached - or not many when comparing to other gambling sites. Only downside on that one so far is they're still developing the app, so it's via the website, not great, but not ideal. 

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I joined Draft Kings to start. Well see how it goes and its mainly for fun. 

I did the KC bet seeing as Im sure the point is to try and get you addicted. 

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30 minutes ago, Soxbadger said:

I joined Draft Kings to start. Well see how it goes and its mainly for fun. 

I did the KC bet seeing as Im sure the point is to try and get you addicted. 

yah, its just another way to give a bonus - Rivers does a match bonus based on money deposited, others will do deals like the Chiefs game which is essentially $100 free - just different angles for the free money. One is more engaging I guess? Marketing at the end of the day. 

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Overall record: 8-5

Rough day out there, but glad to minimize damage by playing small on Indians and Brewers. Upset I didn't get a chance to hammer the Brewers again today - was late to research ... that 14-0 lead is what i was aiming for yesterday. But oh well.  Dodgers game is just a bad beat... to be up 10-6 in the bottom 10 and to serve up 3 with that bullpen is unfortunate, especially being my large play of the day. Things went about what I thought with Clev, just shaky, but that Padres offense, damn they swing the stick. Also glad on stuck it in the pocket on the Sox - had some opportunities, but Musgrove had them in his pocket. 

Onward and upward, let's go!

Indian TT - i'm on the edge here if i want to play the indians full game or indians TT. I think the TT pays better, think this will be my play of the day. 

Cubs and Reds under - I mean, if this was sitting at 7.5 or 8 I'd be hammering it. Maybe I'll take the option to do so, but at 6.5 it just makes me think there is almost no room for error. Still think I'll play the F5 under or maybe tease that 6.5 to 7.5 and take less juice. 

Kershaw - I mean he's doing well, but exit velocities, hard hit, and barrels are pretty bad. ONly at a 25% clip though, so not hitting them up that much.  Almost like Buehler last night - doesn't make a ton of mistakes, but when he does they've been homers, so i can see him letting up 1 or 2 just like buehler did last night, the hope being that they can be solo shots rather than 2-3 run jacks. On teh flip side clarke for the snakes ins't realy that bad with good metrics underneath. scares me in the sense that i think it can be a 1-1 game through 4-5 innings before they take off.. not sure if I'll play this because of that, or maybe wait and play it live if the odds drop.

Sox - not sure what I want here either.  a lot of waffling today ... I trust the kid Dunning, and think Brubaker is a 1 time through the order, maybe 1.5 times through type of guy. don't see him going more than 3/4 innings then its to the pirates bullpen that has been pretty good. pirates are so bad, I can see dunning doing 6ip. overall I think we see a bounce back game but i'm usually timid batting my home team. 

So all that said - going with Indians TT, Sox ML, small bet on Cubs/reds under and probably just sitting out the dodgers who are in a bit of a funk, not woth chasing that juice. 

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Here are the 2 easy bets that I have found:

FanDuel:

Chiefs to Beat the Texans on Opening Night - Max Bet $5

ENHANCED OFFER - CHIEFS TO BEAT THE TEXANS ON OPENING NIGHT

$5.00 TOTAL WAGER +2500 ODDS $125.00 MAX WIN

https://il.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sports?RAF=Brian_11577689


Draft Kings:

KC Chiefs +101 Points

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +101 POINT SPREAD (9/10)

Max Bet $50

____

 

Draft Kings also has a NFL Super Bowl winner deal. Its a max bet of $1 but you get 55 to 1 odds on any team.

NFL CHAMPIONSHIP WINNER +5500

Max Bet $1

https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/r/sb/Soxbadger/US-IL-SB

 

I will try and keep people updated on the other "easy" wins. These are mostly teasers to try and get you hooked, but if you can stay disciplined its easy money. 

 

 

 

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