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BrianAnderson

Gambling Thread (MLB Version)

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Overall record: 10-6

Daggum Tribe couldn't get bases loaded in, really didn't cash in at all. Sucks, but still take 2-1 on the day & glad i sat out the dodgers game even if they ended up winning in extras because it was closer than the juice was worth based on stats. Sometimes sitting a bet out is the best bet. 

 

Today's Games:

Angels/Rangers: Gibson line drive rate bad, walks, etc. – Gibson even worse of late. Angels hot of late. Good discipline, etc. rangers can’t hit the ball. ML -166 seems kind.

Punt on the Indians – don’t touch that juice. Will the Indians win? probably, but at -200 and their offense of late? they started ticking up, but then started chasing again. i can't put my hard earned money on this team. 

Yankees and Orioles: Geritt cole – not just bad luck, his underlying stats are bad. Tough to get behind him. There may be something here for F5 or full game orioles. This is a sharp game. Orioles offense has actually been good, Yankees are all banged up and have not.  Hard to trust the Orioles, but the name recognition on Cole is driving the juice, I'll sit on the other side and take those odds on a small play. 

Give me the reds over cubs. Alozay walks too many. Reds have been just as bad as the Cubs with the sticks -- so i can see them stranding a lot, but give me Sonny Gray against the Cubs. Reds f5 or low scoring. Haven’t seen a line on this, but likely to play Reds F5. 

Madison bumgarner is bad, really bad – 9% walk, 54% fly ball, 49% hard hit, 20% barrel, EV flyball at 97mph…. hes trash. Trash trash. Ops over .900. his ERA should actually be closer to 10 or 11 …. Dodgers crush lefties. I may just take my paycheck and put it on this game. I’m going to package this game up in many ways. Dodgers TT, dodgers run line, dodgers -2.5 or 3.5

 

In review:

Dodgers 3 different ways, TT, Run Line, juiced run line, Angels over Rangers ML, parlay of both of those? Smaller bets on Reds and Orioles. For the sake of keeping track for overall record that will be 7 bets. Go Dodgers!

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1 hour ago, Soxbadger said:

Here are the 2 easy bets that I have found:

FanDuel:

Chiefs to Beat the Texans on Opening Night - Max Bet $5

ENHANCED OFFER - CHIEFS TO BEAT THE TEXANS ON OPENING NIGHT

$5.00 TOTAL WAGER +2500 ODDS $125.00 MAX WIN

https://il.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sports?RAF=Brian_11577689


Draft Kings:

KC Chiefs +101 Points

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +101 POINT SPREAD (9/10)

Max Bet $50

____

 

Draft Kings also has a NFL Super Bowl winner deal. Its a max bet of $1 but you get 55 to 1 odds on any team.

NFL CHAMPIONSHIP WINNER +5500

Max Bet $1

https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/r/sb/Soxbadger/US-IL-SB

 

I will try and keep people updated on the other "easy" wins. These are mostly teasers to try and get you hooked, but if you can stay disciplined its easy money. 

 

 

 

They had some ridiculous ones last week (between both Fan Duel and Draft Kings). One was like +100 odds for White Sox run line of +45 (lose this bet if they lose by 46 lol).

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Yikes on yesterday. I ended up watching that Dodgers game, and yikes is the only way to describe it. They had 2nd/3rd nobody out, nothing, bases loaded 1 out - DP, 1st and 3rd one out and did a double steal! Thrown out at the plate. Bumgarner served up EIGHT hard hit balls. 9 base runners in 5 ip. fjeoaijfeaiojfweojifa is how i feel. Just terrible luck there. Given the exact same game a day later? I'd do the same bet over again. But that is why gambling is gambling - any given day a perfectly lined up match up runs into a brick wall of bad luck. Didnt help that dustin may was also hit with a comebacker on the first batter of game and it was a bullpen game for dodgers.... eojfaowe

1-5 yesterday.. just awful. how easily though that couldve been 5-1 with a few breaks, but i have to keep the honest total

 

Season record: 11-11 (sad!)

Only doing one play today. That game murdered my balance - just want to keep it light and regroup for the weekend. I'm going with the Phillies in the Nola game of the doubleheader. they havent officially announced if it'll be castano or smith, but either or, phillies have a great offense, terrible bullpen, but id think nola should be able to do 6 of the 7 innings and hand it over to workman, or maybe full game. So let's roll & get back on track. 

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Fan Duel Currently running "Spread the Love" bet on  Rams v Dallas. The more people who bet on Rams the higher the spread goes. Currently its sitting at +6, but as more people bet it will keep going higher.

Going to hold off for now, but my guess is once it hits 9+ everyone jumps in and it goes much higher.

https://il.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sports?RAF=Brian_11577689

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1 hour ago, Soxbadger said:

Fan Duel Currently running "Spread the Love" bet on  Rams v Dallas. The more people who bet on Rams the higher the spread goes. Currently its sitting at +6, but as more people bet it will keep going higher.

Going to hold off for now, but my guess is once it hits 9+ everyone jumps in and it goes much higher.

https://il.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sports?RAF=Brian_11577689

It accelerates as you get towards game time.

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12-11 season record (0-4 on one dodgers game FWIW), so individual games not actually bad. 

Todays Games:

Angels TT over at Rox. Freeland has been a bit of an enigma. Great rookie season, terrible second season, and thus far really good on road, awful at home. I just tend to think between him and the Rox bullpen runs will be scored. 

Cardinals ML - Hudson has been very godo this year. keeps the ball down and gets ahead of the count with first pitch strike. like him a lot this year. 

Mets TT over - I don't want to mess with going against the Jays and that offense, so I'm cheering for offense on Mets side. R. Ray on mound. hes awful, throws as many balls as strikes. mets have a good ofense. was a bit scared to bet against ray last time out because it was his first time with the jays after the trade, thought maybe they saw something correctable, however he was just as bad.  

Phillies F5 - stay away from that bullpen, but give me the youngeter howard and that offense against urena for 5 at okay ML. 

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Right now if you have Draftkings and Fan Duel you can place the following bets;

DK Jax + 8 114 $50 max payout of Profit Boost $106.88

Fan Duel Indianapolis -7.5 140 $50 max payout of $120

Not sexy but its free money. 

You can also change the odds to +7.5 for Jax which then pays out 109.38. The first way gave the option if the score ended with Colts winning by 8 you would push. But I think its probably better to just lock in the either $10 or $20.

 

Edited by Soxbadger

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Season record: 14-13 (0-4 on one dodgers game -- still think i have to put that down because outside of that the numbers aren't bad -- and it's not like I'm piling on picks of -180 or -220 to get there. Also I'll die on that sword because it was like the twins game last night where run a simulation 1,000 times and usually the twins are putting up 8 instead of 1 run. very easily that 14-13 record could be 18-9, everything was there, just not the luck. okay last time talking that game... was so bad it had me taking off gambling for much of the past 3-4 days. 

Todays games:

Cubs/Indians F5 under - simply put darvish is on fire, carrasco is hot of late too, both offense leave a lot to be desired

Angels TT over - offense from them has been iffy, on & off, but they take walks, dont strikeout, etc. however what they don't do is elevate the ball and that is bumgarners worst trait this year. he's allow 4HR!! per nine. just getting barreled and shelled with his 86mph fastball. if it wasn't for the groundball/linedrive/flyball splits from the angels offense i'd probably put like 5 units on this game

Cardinals F5 run line -0.5 - flaherty on the mound + cardinals hitting LHP very well this year lines up for a nice game IMO. I can see a 3-1 or 4-1 type score after 5.

Mets and Phillies over. Both bullpens struggling, both offenses hot, both pitchers past their prime, though porcelllo beter of late. almost took the mets here, but just think there should be enough scoring to go around to hit the 10 runs. 

I did do a decent sized parlay on these .... which is dumb. But i really really like flaherty, darvish and dislike bumgarner ... to me, the kicker will be that last game Mets/Phillies that bursts the bubble. But i got like 13:1 odds on it, so lets cross some fingers. being selective on 3 game parlays is usually the way to bolster my pockets, stretching here adding the 4th. may come back & bit me. 

 

 

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So today I started to try and do some in game betting to see if I can work odds to my favor with higher.

Early I missed on Heat -177 at 10.5 because FanDuel is having problems and wouldnt take my bet.

Now I have Nuggets +10.5 at 180.

Well see how it goes.

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Put another Bet on Nuggets +3.5

I hope the worst case is a scratch, best case I win both.

Edited by Soxbadger
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15-16 :( -- just big yikes yesterday. weird how when gambling is momentum too. Don't get it. Try to stay as neutral as possible, but just didn't see Flaherty getting mauled. Just a rough rough stretch. But onward and upward. 

 

Yankees run line parlayed with Rays run line (the latter scares me a bit, but Voth has been getting mauled)

Yankees TT

Rays TT

Sox ML 

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The one I am sitting on right now is that I got the White Sox at 50:1 to win the World Series.  Also got the Sox at 18:1 to win the AL.  The Sox are currently at 12:1 now for the World Series.

If it happens, I am going to Spring Training next year.

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In case anyone likes free money you have the following opportunity between Fanduel and Draft Kings.

Fanduel offering Giants + 6.5 at +110 

Draftkings offering Bears - 6.5 at +143 (with 25% profit boost)

May bet at fanduel  is $50 so your profit is capped. 

Edited by Soxbadger

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13 hours ago, Soxbadger said:

In case anyone likes free money you have the following opportunity between Fanduel and Draft Kings.

Fanduel offering Giants + 6.5 at +110 

Draftkings offering Bears - 6.5 at +143 (with 25% profit boost)

May bet at fanduel  is $50 so your profit is capped. 

On Draft Kings, they have a promo where you bet $50 on the spread, you get $6 every touch down that is scored in the Bears game. I did well on a few bets the last couple days so I figured I would bet the Bears at -5.5 with a 25% profit boost. Would pay $106.88 if I win plus the additional money for the touchdowns.

I also made a bet in February on the Lightning to win the Stanley Cup so it looks like that bet is still pending (cross my fingers they win!).

And, as usual, put $20 on the Sox runline at +155 odds.

Edited by soxfan2014

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5 hours ago, soxfan2014 said:

On Draft Kings, they have a promo where you bet $50 on the spread, you get $6 every touch down that is scored in the Bears game. I did well on a few bets the last couple days so I figured I would bet the Bears at -5.5 with a 25% profit boost. Would pay $106.88 if I win plus the additional money for the touchdowns.

I also made a bet in February on the Lightning to win the Stanley Cup so it looks like that bet is still pending (cross my fingers they win!).

And, as usual, put $20 on the Sox runline at +155 odds.

Fanduel replaced the Bears one with a KC one, which is actually has a slightly higher payout if you take KC + 8.5 and then SD -8.5 at + boost at Draftkings. I really feel like KC will cover anyway.

Last night during the Browns/Bengals game I was able hit the same spreads at + payouts resulting in a guaranteed win.

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Got a free parlay so I did 49ers, Ravens, KC, Bucs all money line. 

I have Bears plus boost v Giants offset against each other same with KC v Chargers. Maximum gain from both bets is +70% lowest possible gain is 11%. I think Ill make 30% based on what I think real results will be (Bears to cover Giants at 4.5 and KC to cover at 8.5)

The last thing Im going to do is the Vikings at +3. This game I am not offsetting to start so it will have the highest risk. I am going to watch in game and bet accordingly to minimize losses if necessary. I really was tempted to do money line, but for my overall strategy the most important rule is to not minimize potential losses. 

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So I was completely wrong but came out only $4 down. I would have made money, but I offset the parlay for a chargers moneyline late when the game was in doubt. I should have gotten out of the MN game early and salvaged a winning day, but I just didnt expect them to be that horrific.

 

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Been traveling and with geolocating, now gambling for IL. 

I'm on the Dodgers big tonight. Montas has been knocked around and the last few weeks for the A's have been a struggle to get bats on balls. I like this value here too since they're giving Oakland a lot of credit. 

Also on Nola early, and the over in the Marlins/Braves game. Lots of walks to be had in that game, think there will be some runs scored. Marlins actaully been hitting pretty well of late, not power numbers, but doubles. 

 

Let's get back on the right track!

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On 9/17/2020 at 5:13 PM, southsider2k5 said:

The one I am sitting on right now is that I got the White Sox at 50:1 to win the World Series.  Also got the Sox at 18:1 to win the AL.  The Sox are currently at 12:1 now for the World Series.

If it happens, I am going to Spring Training next year.

To add on to this. with 16 teams in the playoffs, and a 2 wins needed for a team to advance, I got on and explored the odds for the playoff teams to win it all.  As of yesterday there were 6 of the 16 teams who were 25:1 or higher.  I put money on all six.  We saw a flukey regular season, and with an opening round best of 3, I see no reason why that won't continue over the next month.  Call it a lottery ticket.

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Alright, today's action. I'm on, in order of confidence: Jays/Rays over, Giolito over 6.5K's, White Sox ML, Astros/Twins under 2.5 F3 innings

 

Astros/Twins: I have to look up the record of Twins without Buxton. Was crazy last year, and this year too. I don’t think it’s just a coincidence. Both pitchers aren’t going to walk many and will strikeout their fair share. Both offenses are struggling, Astros specifically. But overall the Twins are overrated when it comes to their offense – they hit home runs and live and die by the homer. Greinke isn’t a guy who historically lets up fly balls, he keeps the ball low, grounders, though that does lead to baserunners, and thus his 4.03 ERA. Greinke line drive rate high – Also his numbers 2nd and 3rd time through the order are bad. Really bad 3rd time through. Probably plays well for a playoff series though. Both guys don’t do well later in their outings. Maybe F5 under. Also all that being said, -172 is a lot on the Twins. I get that Maeda is better & the Astros aren’t great this year, but still seems like a lot of juice. Also no Josh Donaldson today. Between no him or Buxton? Last year went 48-23 with buxton and 13-15 w/out him. Overall they have .564 winning percentage with him, and a .453 w/out him.

Maybe F3 under? 

I’ll go 4-3 Twins Final.

WHite Sox/A’s: I’ll start saying that the Sox are 14-0 in games where they oppose a starting lefty. A’s are also pitching a rookie … albeit a very good rookie. He’s raw though, got nasty stuff, but very much liable to let up runs … he’s let up 3 or more runs in 5 of his last 8 starts. And one of those good starts came against the Dbacks who are just terrible. I like runs from the Sox. Likewise, Giolito making his first playoff start too. He’s been good, but since that no hitter? 29IP, 15 runs scored, which is like a 4.75ERA or so. Oakland offense has been struggling very much so the last 10 days. And the Sox also. But I think 7.5 for a game total is low. I’ll also test my bias & hope the Sox go 15-0 against lefties this year, especially at -110.

Giolito is not going to let up hard contact, low and slow. Giolito can go 6ip+. Giolito on road, ERA is 2.50. Sox offense has been just terrible, even against lefties in last 300 PA. A’s struggling just as much. That scares me. I think the lean has to almost be Sox. Sox bullpen not doing great of late either. A’s bullpen of late really bad too. Hmmm…..

I’ll go with a 6-3 final, White Sox and Gio getting his K's. 

 

Jays/Rays: Jays have been one of the most potent offenses this year and Bo Bichette is back. Blake Snell has not pitched more than 5.2 innings this year… he’s also let up multiple runs in 5 of his last 7 games. Shoemaker isn’t going more than 5IP either, making only one start since an injury he had in August. Between rust and just being an okay pitcher, I’d say 4ip, 2er is probably a good guess. Shoemaker allows a ton of hard hit and elevation. Then it’s a bullpen game. 7.5 just seems really low. Flip side +175 also seems like a good value, maybe a F5 +1.5 for Jays?  Jays offense is doing great, underlying stats not so much. Rays offense is struggling. K’s a lot. Yuck on offense. Rays bullpen has been on fire of late. Jays bullpen real bad of late. F5 Tor +1.5? Still think 7.5 over

Over 7.5 

Best guess:

Rays 6, Jays 4

Yanks/Cleveland: I’ll just pass entirely. No reason to get involved in a game like this. Some ducksnort will drop and an errant throw and the final ends up 2-1 some team. Don’t feel like betting that game. Though at even money, and dependent on how the early slate goes, if forced, give me that Yankees offense all day over Cleveland offense. 

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