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hi8is

Nick Madrigal

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36 minutes ago, Madrigal Mystery Tour said:

2021 will be the actually genesis of the "Madrigal Mystery Tour". Can't wait to see him perform over a 162 game season

I am very jealous of you coming up with this. Great name. Great graphic. Bravo.

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Nicky Two Strikes is what Jason is pushing for a nick name on game broadcasts. Who thought of that here?

Seems like Benitti reads soxtalk.  😆

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3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

They did it with Bummer, Santos and other relievers, I have no doubt they have been to both Nick and Andrew Vaughn to try to get deals done.  It is the Rick Hahn way.

Closers benefit from the arbitration process as currently constructed though.

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2 hours ago, fathom said:

At least I know I will have one person who supports this, but advanced metrics say Mendick has been a better player.  Madrigal is a good fit on a superstar team as the 9 hitter, but it’s going to be hard for him to ever put up big WAR numbers, IMO. He’s not someone that is going to break the bank in arbitration.

Advanced metrics are penalizing Madrigal for a handful of dumb plays in the field and on the bases in an incredibly small sample.  I seriously doubt any projection model would project Mendick as the superior player when he’s worse than Nick with the bat, the glove, and on the bases.

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16 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Advanced metrics are penalizing Madrigal for a handful of dumb plays in the field and on the bases in an incredibly small sample.  I seriously doubt any projection model would project Mendick as the superior player when he’s worse than Nick with the bat, the glove, and on the bases.

And if any teams out there think Mendick is the superior player, I would love to make a deal with them that reflects Danny' status as a projected 2B starter in the majors.

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Sorry, I still don't by WAR  and fWAR as be all end all.  My question is whether or not Nick gets those stats reduced because he was thrown out twice on the bases.  I don't know.  If the answer is yes, then the stat is really flawed.  He ran the bases properly, probably followed coach's signal, and they required perfect plays by defense, especially on the one at home against KC, I believe.

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15 minutes ago, oldsox said:

Sorry, I still don't by WAR  and fWAR as be all end all.  My question is whether or not Nick gets those stats reduced because he was thrown out twice on the bases.  I don't know.  If the answer is yes, then the stat is really flawed.  He ran the bases properly, probably followed coach's signal, and they required perfect plays by defense, especially on the one at home against KC, I believe.

Yes, his baserunning rating is heavily affecting his WAR, and no, he wasn't following the coach's signal, he ran through stop signs multiple times and was thrown out every time

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1 hour ago, oldsox said:

Sorry, I still don't by WAR  and fWAR as be all end all.  My question is whether or not Nick gets those stats reduced because he was thrown out twice on the bases.  I don't know.  If the answer is yes, then the stat is really flawed.  He ran the bases properly, probably followed coach's signal, and they required perfect plays by defense, especially on the one at home against KC, I believe.

There is no inherent flaw with that stat, but rather how one is drawing conclusions from it.  Taking a tiny sample and saying analytics don’t like a player is completely disingenuous and reflects a bias against said player.  Full stop, we know Madrigal isn’t a terrible base-runner or fielder and so far analytics think he is an above average hitter based on his quality of contact.  I’d wager large sums of money he’ll have some 3 win projections next year.

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28 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

There is no inherent flaw with that stat, but rather how one is drawing conclusions from it.  Taking a tiny sample and saying analytics don’t like a player is completely disingenuous and reflects a bias against said player.  Full stop, we know Madrigal isn’t a terrible base-runner or fielder and so far analytics think he is an above average hitter based on his quality of contact.  I’d wager large sums of money he’ll have some 3 win projections next year.

There is an inherent flaw. What exactly is a replacement level player? According to WAR the Sox would have only 1.8 less wins if the player played for the Sox instead of Robert. He looks to be a great deal better than a player who can be replaced by a readily found player. So  currently Engel is .5. If the Sox sit Robert and play Engel in CF they should expect to be only 1 game different now? I don't think so.

 

Take it to another level. Mazara is .2 and Engel is .5 with only 3 games difference in games played. Does Mazara look essential the same value as Engel this year?

Edited by ptatc

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3 hours ago, ptatc said:

There is an inherent flaw. What exactly is a replacement level player? According to WAR the Sox would have only 1.8 less wins if the player played for the Sox instead of Robert. He looks to be a great deal better than a player who can be replaced by a readily found player. So  currently Engel is .5. If the Sox sit Robert and play Engel in CF they should expect to be only 1 game different now? I don't think so.

 

Take it to another level. Mazara is .2 and Engel is .5 with only 3 games difference in games played. Does Mazara look essential the same value as Engel this year?

I do think that is correct. People overestimate the effect of a single player. Mike trout gets about 2.6 bases per game (TB+HPB+BB) and an average player hits for about 1.9 bases (did that research a couple weeks ago). 

That means trout gives you about 0.7 bases more per game than an average hitter (100wrc+) which is worth about 0.4 runs or so.

0.4 runs per game is about 65 per sesson or about 6.5 wins at a 10 run per win conversion which is generally believed to be about correct.

However of course a replacement level player is worse than a 100 wrc+ (more like 80 or so depending on the position) so the extra value is a bit higher.

Baseball is not basketball and you only get like 4 ABs a game no matter how good you are and that just limits impact.

Also consider this is a short season, so you can basically almost multiply by 3 to get whole season effect.

 

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4 hours ago, ptatc said:

There is an inherent flaw. What exactly is a replacement level player? According to WAR the Sox would have only 1.8 less wins if the player played for the Sox instead of Robert. He looks to be a great deal better than a player who can be replaced by a readily found player. So  currently Engel is .5. If the Sox sit Robert and play Engel in CF they should expect to be only 1 game different now? I don't think so.

 

Take it to another level. Mazara is .2 and Engel is .5 with only 3 games difference in games played. Does Mazara look essential the same value as Engel this year?

The bigger issue is the defensive contribution to WAR.  Its why you sometimes get huge differences in WAR between bWAR and fWAR.  
 

oWAR or OFF is typically a good measure of the players offensive value though and is more consistent between the two sites

 

as someone else noted above madrigals values are really weighed down by his baserunning blunders right now

Edited by ChiSox1917
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Those baserunning blunders weighing more heavily due to the short sample size. Running into an out just has a very negative value (like minus a run or so) but over a 162 game season that is not so big. But this is a short season plus madrigal was called up later and missed time with an injury so he did not have much time to compensate for the blunders.

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Great link. Nick breathes nothing but baseball. Love it.

 

" It would start the night before, with Madrigal laying out his uniform and massaging his glove with oil."

I have a very similar routine but something else I oil up.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, DoUEvenShift said:

I have a very similar routine but something else I oil up.

You really don't feel good about yourself, do you. If you ever need someone to talk to - let me know. I've been through the wringer and lived to tell the tale.

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3 minutes ago, Green Line said:

He needs to start hitting more than singles.  If not, bye bye

Hit two doubles a couple games ago. His OPS was near .800 last I checked. Hit a scoreboard while rehabbing his separated shoulder.

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/sports/nbcsports/white-sox-injuries-rehabbing-nick-madrigal-homers-off-schaumburg-scoreboard/2328103/

He'll be fine and "if not, bye bye" is as naive a statement as one couple probably make. Keep following along brother, you'll learn and grow with us... hopefully.

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9 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Hit two doubles a couple games ago. His OPS was near .800 last I checked. Hit a scoreboard while rehabbing his separated shoulder.

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/sports/nbcsports/white-sox-injuries-rehabbing-nick-madrigal-homers-off-schaumburg-scoreboard/2328103/

He'll be fine and "if not, bye bye" is as naive a statement as one couple probably make. Keep following along brother, you'll learn and grow with us... hopefully.

I peaked a decade ago.

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7 minutes ago, Green Line said:

I peaked a decade ago.

Hence the issue? Anyhow, carry on then fellow.

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8 hours ago, Green Line said:

He needs to start hitting more than singles.  If not, bye bye

Not in this line up.  Turning over the order, seeing some pitches, distracting pitchers on the basepaths and playing good defense give a different stress to the other team than anyone else on the team causes. 

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