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The George Springer Paradox


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Of all the players I want the Sox to sign this off-season, George Springer ranks #1. That said, I don't think anyone will be effected more by this off-season than him.

Springer didn't have a chance to play a full season this year, and he was coming off speculation surrounding the Astros cheating scandal. In addition to that, Springer hasn't exactly been a beacon of consistency and/or health throughout his career. 

Each of the past three years, he dealt with nagging injuries that kept him out for some time; playing a high of 140 games in those three seasons. In addition, Springer has seen fluctuation in his production:

889, 780, 974, 798 being his OPS' each of the past four seasons. When Springer is good, he's great - posting a 6.5 fWAR in 122 games in 2019, but he's also capable of being just a nice player. Pair that with the speculation surrounding the Astros cheating and how players would bounce back, his age (he'll be 32 next season) and his lack of consistent elite production and what do you get? A player who is going to have to overcome some obstacles to get that huge long payday in an off-season effected mightily by COVID.

You have to figure teams are already going to cut back spending, and that will start first with free agents. What contract can you expect Springer to get? 

3 years, 90 million? 3 years 80 million? Does he get a 4th year? 

Regardless, the Nomar Mazara experiment can't be what the White Sox expected, and unless they were committed to two years from the day they got him, or unless he gets on one torrid streak here to finish the season, you have to figure he's on his way out.

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30 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Of all the players I want the Sox to sign this off-season, George Springer ranks #1. That said, I don't think anyone will be effected more by this off-season than him.

Springer didn't have a chance to play a full season this year, and he was coming off speculation surrounding the Astros cheating scandal. In addition to that, Springer hasn't exactly been a beacon of consistency and/or health throughout his career. 

Each of the past three years, he dealt with nagging injuries that kept him out for some time; playing a high of 140 games in those three seasons. In addition, Springer has seen fluctuation in his production:

889, 780, 974, 798 being his OPS' each of the past four seasons. When Springer is good, he's great - posting a 6.5 fWAR in 122 games in 2019, but he's also capable of being just a nice player. Pair that with the speculation surrounding the Astros cheating and how players would bounce back, his age (he'll be 32 next season) and his lack of consistent elite production and what do you get? A player who is going to have to overcome some obstacles to get that huge long payday in an off-season effected mightily by COVID.

You have to figure teams are already going to cut back spending, and that will start first with free agents. What contract can you expect Springer to get? 

3 years, 90 million? 3 years 80 million? Does he get a 4th year? 

Regardless, the Nomar Mazara experiment can't be what the White Sox expected, and unless they were committed to two years from the day they got him, or unless he gets on one torrid streak here to finish the season, you have to figure he's on his way out.

I also am a big fan of bringing in Springer.  He is likely my #1 FA choice as well.  I agree with everything you've said. I was nervous to watch the seasons of ALL Astros hitters and Springer and Altuve specifically have taken a large hit.. You now have to wonder if this is who they are if they don't know what pitch is coming. It certainly makes you more nervous and contemplate your decision more.  I think he for sure gets a 4th year.  I'll go 4 years - 100 million.

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13 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

Springer gets either 2/40 or 3/55 this off-season. No one is breaking bank for him at his age and scandal level. Look how hard it was for Castellanos to get signed. Springer could even get less than his yearly amount and that makes him very appealing even if he is a cheater.

Agreed . Maybe a contract like Keuchel got , maybe even less. Certainly not $30M or not even $20M per year at his age and other factors.

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5 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Of all the players I want the Sox to sign this off-season, George Springer ranks #1. That said, I don't think anyone will be effected more by this off-season than him.

Springer didn't have a chance to play a full season this year, and he was coming off speculation surrounding the Astros cheating scandal. In addition to that, Springer hasn't exactly been a beacon of consistency and/or health throughout his career. 

Each of the past three years, he dealt with nagging injuries that kept him out for some time; playing a high of 140 games in those three seasons. In addition, Springer has seen fluctuation in his production:

889, 780, 974, 798 being his OPS' each of the past four seasons. When Springer is good, he's great - posting a 6.5 fWAR in 122 games in 2019, but he's also capable of being just a nice player. Pair that with the speculation surrounding the Astros cheating and how players would bounce back, his age (he'll be 32 next season) and his lack of consistent elite production and what do you get? A player who is going to have to overcome some obstacles to get that huge long payday in an off-season effected mightily by COVID.

You have to figure teams are already going to cut back spending, and that will start first with free agents. What contract can you expect Springer to get? 

3 years, 90 million? 3 years 80 million? Does he get a 4th year? 

Regardless, the Nomar Mazara experiment can't be what the White Sox expected, and unless they were committed to two years from the day they got him, or unless he gets on one torrid streak here to finish the season, you have to figure he's on his way out.

I'm confused. Why is a guy who is inconsistent, limited by injuries, coming off a scandal, and the most expensive RF free agent option your #1 of all the people you want to sign this off season? You make a much better case above about exactly why we shouldn't sign him.

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7 minutes ago, MeanJoeCrede said:

I'm confused. Why is a guy who is inconsistent, limited by injuries, coming off a scandal, and the most expensive RF free agent option your #1 of all the people you want to sign this off season? You make a much better case above about exactly why we shouldn't sign him.

Because guys who drop 6.5 fWAR seasons in 122 games don't grow on trees. Springer's ceiling is mesmerizing and always has been. When he's at his best, he's one of the better players in the game. 

I actually think the perfect storm of questions is a blessing for the Sox and any team interested. He could easily outperform his contract. 

I want to sign him because he fits perfectly with this team and roster. He is the final piece to an elite offense. Springer could be the 800 OPS player he's "struggled" as this year and he'd still be a damn good piece.

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He's still on pace for a 4 fWAR season even in a down year and his Statcast numbers are all encouraging. MAYBE he signs a 1 year deal because of all the uncertainty with how teams will spend money this off-season, but at 30 he can't afford to take a middling two or three year deal. He is an excellent all-around ball player, this isn't going to be a Castellanos or Ozuna situation.

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36 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Because guys who drop 6.5 fWAR seasons in 122 games don't grow on trees. Springer's ceiling is mesmerizing and always has been.  When he knows what pitch is coming.. When he's at his best, he's one of the better players in the game. When he knows what pitch is coming

I actually think the perfect storm of questions is a blessing for the Sox and any team interested. He could easily outperform his contract. When he knows what pitch is coming

I want to sign him because he fits perfectly with this team and roster. When he knows what pitch is coming.  He is the final piece to an elite offense.  When he knows what pitch is coming. Springer could be the 800 OPS player he's "struggled" as this year and he'd still be a damn good piece. When he knows what pitch is coming

fify

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Just now, turnin' two said:

fify

He still has a 120 wRC+ this year despite not knowing what pitches are coming. Along with some terrible BABIP luck. He's still a solid player. I just don't know if we can afford a reasonable deal for him given the financial situation. 

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1 hour ago, EloyJenkins said:

Springer gets either 2/40 or 3/55 this off-season. No one is breaking bank for him at his age and scandal level. Look how hard it was for Castellanos to get signed. Springer could even get less than his yearly amount and that makes him very appealing even if he is a cheater.

Castellanos couldn't field and had 2 months of productivity.  I'd call that a real bad comp

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3 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Not really a “paradox,” (maybe a conundrum). In any event Springer would be a nice addition at the right price, but I hope they address the rotation before worrying about further strengthening an already-strong lineup.   

But apart from Bauer there really is no one in the rotation that would be great additions... Sure some nice guys, but none that "put us over the top" for playoffs

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At the price he's probably going to be going... Hell yeah I'm in!

Market for these slightly older OFrs has been BAAADDD, couple in with him having a down year and he can be had for a great price. He's a player that produces near an MVP type level if he is on point. I'm in!

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If the offseason consists of signing Bauer and Springer I'm incredibly happy, though I don't know how Bauer would like playing with two former Astros. I'd prefer this to the trade route except for the bullpen where hopefully we can trade some spare parts/blocked players for bullpen help.

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Personally, I would pass on paying a lot for another RH bat.  He’s better than Mazara or any minor league options, but there’s redundancy in his skill set. I would rather have Bauer (though I think that is unlikely). I would probably spend the money in a very unsexy way, lock up Giolito.

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1 minute ago, almagest said:

If the offseason consists of signing Bauer and Springer I'm incredibly happy, though I don't know how Bauer would like playing with two former Astros. I'd prefer this to the trade route except for the bullpen where hopefully we can trade some spare parts/blocked players for bullpen help.

It might make you happy but you are dreaming if you think there is even an outside shot at the White Sox signing both. Maybe one, and that is a big maybe. But it would be bold. Reclamation projects seem to be the way the Sox usually go, even after their other total rebuild in the late 80s. I wouldn’t be surprised if they went after Kluber for a reclimation price. I know I am in the huge minority, but Mazara is actually hitting fairly well now except for power which we all know he has. I am sure his illness zapped that. Hopefully he gets it back because It is more likely than not if they replace him next season, it will be with a player that has just as many warts.

 

 

 

 

 

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