The Hostetler Drafts: A Review

[bmags]

I wanted to put down some thoughts, if you scroll down you see the bolded indicate guys who were drafted since 2016 who made the majors. To avoid quibbling - that is actually a big feat. This review is EARLY, and we will see the full impact. But as of now, we are seeing a number of players contribute on a division contending team with two weeks to go.

My initial take on Hostetler drafts:

I was very negative on this era. I hated the lack of athleticism drafted overall. It was way too college heavy and lacked upside. For years, we saw our only top 100 representatives being our trade acquisitions or top 5 picks who automatically slate there.

His line that he was looking to build up system depth annoyed be since for years he emphasized that he only cared about BPA, which seemed like a contradiction. And my belief was that trying to be safer and build "depth" just meant you were getting guys that were hitting their ceilings in AA instead of the possibility of fizzling out in low-a  - which can happen with younger, higher upside picks.

It's time to revise that opinion.

A look on his drafts (1-10 only just for brevity, though I'll point out guys that made it after like Mendick)

2016 (in order from rounds 1-10)

Zach Collins, Zack Burdi, Alec Hansen, Alex Call, Jameson Fisher, Jimmy Lambert, Luis Corbelo, Bernardo Flores, Nate Nolan, Zach Remillard

Later picks that made it: Ian Hamilton (11), Matt Foster (20) (edit: hat tip to Y2Jimmy!)

2017 (worst draft by far)

Jake Burger, Gavin Sheets, Luis Gonzalez, Lincoln Henzman, Tyler Johnson, Kade McClure, Evan Skoug, Sam Abbot, Craig Dedelow, JB Olson

2018

Nick Madrigal, Steele Walker, Konnor Pilkington, Lency Delgado, Jonathan Stiever, Codi Heuer, Cabera Weaver, Andrew Perez, Gunnar Troutwine, Bennet Sousa

2019

Andrew Vaughn (top 30 prospect), Matthew Thompson, Andrew Dalquist, James Beard, Dan Metzdorf, Avery Weems, Karen Patel, Ivan Gonzalez, Tyson Messer, Pawelczyk, Nate

 

4 drafts, 5 years ago:

11 major leaguers and almost certainly 12 (Vaughn).

That is depth. 

The quibbles: 

- Luis Gonzalez almost certainly a child of circumstance, but he made it to a level where it was possible. That's still good. Not always the case.

- The 2017 draft is just absolute trash.

- A lot of capital was spent on bullpen, and of Ian Hamilton, Johnson and Heuer, only heuer has really shown himself but he's been huge.

 

The still bad:

- His 2nd round picks and paying overslot for college juniors will just always baffle me.

 

Bottom line:

11 is a lot, and yes, he picked a lot. A team similar to us (top picks during the time and didn't get freebie balance picks) is the phillies, who have seen 6 during that time. 

If Hostetler set out to get depth, it appears he did that, and it paid off at the right time in supplementing the sox during a year of competition and high injuries.

I am still a bigger fan of Shirley's style, and think the higher upside picks will be more valuable as trade currency if not impact starters. But the emergence of Stiever, what Lambert showed, and Heuer have made me really reverse myself on how hostetler performed. I'm not going to say he was amazing - he did have tremendous draft resources! - but it was a much better record than I realized in the later rounds in the draft.

And a poster whose name I don't remember pointed out that I was wrong, and he was right, so sorry to that guy if you read this.

[Quin]

40 minutes ago, bmags said:

I wanted to put down some thoughts, if you scroll down you see the bolded indicate guys who were drafted since 2016 who made the majors. To avoid quibbling - that is actually a big feat. This review is EARLY, and we will see the full impact. But as of now, we are seeing a number of players contribute on a division contending team with two weeks to go.

My initial take on Hostetler drafts:

I was very negative on this era. I hated the lack of athleticism drafted overall. It was way too college heavy and lacked upside. For years, we saw our only top 100 representatives being our trade acquisitions or top 5 picks who automatically slate there.

His line that he was looking to build up system depth annoyed be since for years he emphasized that he only cared about BPA, which seemed like a contradiction. And my belief was that trying to be safer and build "depth" just meant you were getting guys that were hitting their ceilings in AA instead of the possibility of fizzling out in low-a  - which can happen with younger, higher upside picks.

It's time to revise that opinion.

A look on his drafts (1-10 only just for brevity, though I'll point out guys that made it after like Mendick)

2016 (in order from rounds 1-10)

Zach Collins, Zack Burdi, Alec Hansen, Alex Call, Jameson Fisher, Jimmy Lambert, Luis Corbelo, Bernardo Flores, Nate Nolan, Zach Remillard

Later picks that made it: Ian Hamilton (11)

2017 (worst draft by far)

Jake Burger, Gavin Sheets, Luis Gonzalez, Lincoln Henzman, Tyler Johnson, Kade McClure, Evan Skoug, Sam Abbot, Craig Dedelow, JB Olson

2018

Nick Madrigal, Steele Walker, Konnor Pilkington, Lency Delgado, Jonathan Stiever, Codi Heuer, Cabera Weaver, Andrew Perez, Gunnar Troutwine, Bennet Sousa

2019

Andrew Vaughn (top 30 prospect), Matthew Thompson, Andrew Dalquist, James Beard, Dan Metzdorf, Avery Weems, Karen Patel, Ivan Gonzalez, Tyson Messer, Pawelczyk, Nate

 

4 drafts, 5 years ago:

10 major leaguers and almost certainly 11 (Vaughn).

That is depth. 

The quibbles: 

- Luis Gonzalez almost certainly a child of circumstance, but he made it to a level where it was possible. That's still good. Not always the case.

- The 2017 draft is just absolute trash.

- A lot of capital was spent on bullpen, and of Ian Hamilton, Johnson and Heuer, only heuer has really shown himself but he's been huge.

 

The still bad:

- His 2nd round picks and paying overslot for college juniors will just always baffle me.

 

Bottom line:

10 is a lot, and yes, he picked a lot. A team similar to us (top picks during the time and didn't get freebie balance picks) is the phillies, who have seen 6 during that time. 

If Hostetler set out to get depth, it appears he did that, and it paid off at the right time in supplementing the sox during a year of competition and high injuries.

I am still a bigger fan of Shirley's style, and think the higher upside picks will be more valuable as trade currency if not impact starters. But the emergence of Stiever, what Lambert showed, and Heuer have made me really reverse myself on how hostetler performed. I'm not going to say he was amazing - he did have tremendous draft resources! - but it was a much better record than I realized in the later rounds in the draft.

And a poster whose name I don't remember pointed out that I was wrong, and he was right, so sorry to that guy if you read this.

I feel like the biggest second round whiff will always be Alek Thomas. It just seemed...right there. 

I also think the transition to Shirley is coming at a good time. Now is the perfect time to load up on big time talent from within.

[Y2Jimmy0]

50 minutes ago, bmags said:

I wanted to put down some thoughts, if you scroll down you see the bolded indicate guys who were drafted since 2016 who made the majors. To avoid quibbling - that is actually a big feat. This review is EARLY, and we will see the full impact. But as of now, we are seeing a number of players contribute on a division contending team with two weeks to go.

My initial take on Hostetler drafts:

I was very negative on this era. I hated the lack of athleticism drafted overall. It was way too college heavy and lacked upside. For years, we saw our only top 100 representatives being our trade acquisitions or top 5 picks who automatically slate there.

His line that he was looking to build up system depth annoyed be since for years he emphasized that he only cared about BPA, which seemed like a contradiction. And my belief was that trying to be safer and build "depth" just meant you were getting guys that were hitting their ceilings in AA instead of the possibility of fizzling out in low-a  - which can happen with younger, higher upside picks.

It's time to revise that opinion.

A look on his drafts (1-10 only just for brevity, though I'll point out guys that made it after like Mendick)

2016 (in order from rounds 1-10)

Zach Collins, Zack Burdi, Alec Hansen, Alex Call, Jameson Fisher, Jimmy Lambert, Luis Corbelo, Bernardo Flores, Nate Nolan, Zach Remillard

Later picks that made it: Ian Hamilton (11)

2017 (worst draft by far)

Jake Burger, Gavin Sheets, Luis Gonzalez, Lincoln Henzman, Tyler Johnson, Kade McClure, Evan Skoug, Sam Abbot, Craig Dedelow, JB Olson

2018

Nick Madrigal, Steele Walker, Konnor Pilkington, Lency Delgado, Jonathan Stiever, Codi Heuer, Cabera Weaver, Andrew Perez, Gunnar Troutwine, Bennet Sousa

2019

Andrew Vaughn (top 30 prospect), Matthew Thompson, Andrew Dalquist, James Beard, Dan Metzdorf, Avery Weems, Karen Patel, Ivan Gonzalez, Tyson Messer, Pawelczyk, Nate

 

4 drafts, 5 years ago:

10 major leaguers and almost certainly 11 (Vaughn).

That is depth. 

The quibbles: 

- Luis Gonzalez almost certainly a child of circumstance, but he made it to a level where it was possible. That's still good. Not always the case.

- The 2017 draft is just absolute trash.

- A lot of capital was spent on bullpen, and of Ian Hamilton, Johnson and Heuer, only heuer has really shown himself but he's been huge.

 

The still bad:

- His 2nd round picks and paying overslot for college juniors will just always baffle me.

 

Bottom line:

10 is a lot, and yes, he picked a lot. A team similar to us (top picks during the time and didn't get freebie balance picks) is the phillies, who have seen 6 during that time. 

If Hostetler set out to get depth, it appears he did that, and it paid off at the right time in supplementing the sox during a year of competition and high injuries.

I am still a bigger fan of Shirley's style, and think the higher upside picks will be more valuable as trade currency if not impact starters. But the emergence of Stiever, what Lambert showed, and Heuer have made me really reverse myself on how hostetler performed. I'm not going to say he was amazing - he did have tremendous draft resources! - but it was a much better record than I realized in the later rounds in the draft.

And a poster whose name I don't remember pointed out that I was wrong, and he was right, so sorry to that guy if you read this.

This is all fair. You forgot about Matt Foster (20th round in 2016) though. I'll never understand the strategy in the 2nd round either. Nick Hostetler would tell you that he's more proud of the changes he made to the department than any of the actual players he's responsible for drafting. I think he brought the department out of the stone ages and he passed it off to Mike Shirley and crew at a great time. 

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

This is all fair. You forgot about Matt Foster (20th round in 2016) though. I'll never understand the strategy in the 2nd round either. Nick Hostetler would tell you that he's more proud of the changes he made to the department than any of the actual players he's responsible for drafting. I think he brought the department out of the stone ages and he passed it off to Mike Shirley and crew at a great time. 

Damn that's a big one. Curse of a too generic name scanning through long lists of players 😁

[southsider2k5]

Nice work @bmags  The interesting thing is even besides these bolded guys, there are still others on the list who are pretty good bets to make it. Looking at the 60 man roster as a sort of guidebook as to who the Sox see as their next level guys, you still have Remilard and Burger there, and there might be others I am missing due to a lack of a clear and current 60 man squad roster.

[Quin]

15 minutes ago, bmags said:

Damn that's a big one. Curse of a too generic name scanning through long lists of players 😁

He retired, so you get a mulligan.

[bmags]

19 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Nice work @bmags  The interesting thing is even besides these bolded guys, there are still others on the list who are pretty good bets to make it. Looking at the 60 man roster as a sort of guidebook as to who the Sox see as their next level guys, you still have Remilard and Burger there, and there might be others I am missing due to a lack of a clear and current 60 man squad roster.

I'm sure @Y2Jimmy0 would have best info here.

I'd say:

- Sheets likely to see at least some time in big leagues at his trajectory. Not confident as a starter but he's close and competent.

- Andrew Perez has put up good stats though haven't heard much since his draft. But he's lefty, and at the time threw a mid-90s fb.

- Sousa was up to AA, though he'll be fairly old starting next year.

Then:

Pilkington is a lefty starter, may be up eventually a la Flores. Interesting to see how he performs next year.

Thompson/Dalquist/Beard have high upside. If not on sox, I'm hopeful they become something we can turn into ML assets.

Davis Martin (2018) faded but had some good K stats. Who knows. Maybe that plays more in bullpen.

Jason Bilous same, and was only 21, so he may be on a decent track.

2019 has gladney, glass, and krogman. So some upside guys outside the top ten in addition to the 3 above.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

1 hour ago, Quin said:

I feel like the biggest second round whiff will always be Alek Thomas. It just seemed...right there. 

I also think the transition to Shirley is coming at a good time. Now is the perfect time to load up on big time talent from within.

They didn't wiff on him.  Everyone involed thought it was best for Alec to establish himself in another organaization where he didn't have the added pressure of being the hometown kid and playing in an organization where his father was an employee.  They did him a solid by not drafting him.  

[bmags]

16 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

They didn't wiff on him.  Everyone involed thought it was best for Alec to establish himself in another organaization where he didn't have the added pressure of being the hometown kid and playing in an organization where his father was an employee.  They did him a solid by not drafting him.  

I get the bolded, but kinda laugh at there being pressure to being a white sox.

For me it wasn't a simple "drafted this guy instead of this guy" with the 2nd rounders, it was the strange use of the pool. They probably missed out on guys we would have liked, but I like the more recent home run approach (even if 2020 was not the year I'd go for a play like that considering its depth).

[ChiSoxJon]

Noticed this the other day, as big as our top talent has been, it's finds like these that are pretty big themselves

[Dominikk85]

I also don't like the college second and third round picks. Better get a toolsy HS guy with a bad swing or control problems there who might bust in low A ball rather than taking the polished but limited college guy who performs in the low minors but then runs out of talent  and the best case you get is like a 4th outfielder.

I don't think the first round picks were that bad. Collins was a very good hitter in college and had some chance to become a non terrible catcher.  Hasn't worked in the pros so far as collins walked and hit a few bombs but struck out a ton and didn't make many defensive strides.

I don't think burger was that bad either, he raked in college and you can't plan injuries.

Madrigal and vaughn both look at least like average major leaguers (2 war) with a good chance to be 3 WAR players.

Crochet and kelly are hard to judge yet but there is potential.

[bmags]

4 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

I also don't like the college second and third round picks. Better get a toolsy HS guy with a bad swing or control problems there who might bust in low A ball rather than taking the polished but limited college guy who performs in the low minors but then runs out of talent  and the best case you get is like a 4th outfielder.

I don't think the first round picks were that bad. Collins was a very good hitter in college and had some chance to become a non terrible catcher.  Hasn't worked in the pros so far as collins walked and hit a few bombs but struck out a ton and didn't make many defensive strides.

I don't think burger was that bad either, he raked in college and you can't plan injuries.

Madrigal and vaughn both look at least like average major leaguers (2 war) with a good chance to be 3 WAR players.

Crochet and kelly are hard to judge yet but there is potential.

Don't forget Mike Shirley took over his role for this draft.

2017 is mostly unfortunate just due to missing out on a tremendous top 10 that falls off a cliff when the sox pick. Aside from maybe Evan White, there isn't much to be excited about the rest of the first round. But the three picks ahead of the sox were Addell, Hiura and Haseley. Haseley isn't amazing or anything, but 3 mlb producing players just ahead of them, and basically meh the next 20 picks if I'm being generous. Pretty crappy pool of talent that year.

[y2chae]

22 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

They didn't wiff on him.  Everyone involed thought it was best for Alec to establish himself in another organaization where he didn't have the added pressure of being the hometown kid and playing in an organization where his father was an employee.  They did him a solid by not drafting him.  

While I get that hometown pressure can be a thing if the Sox took him off their draft board because his dad is part of the organization and he went to Mount Carmel, that's not very smart.  

[GreenSox]

You have a generous definition of a major leaguer.  Way too many high picks were wasted under Hostetler.  Overall, there is one major league starter (Madrigal, top 5 pick), one possible major league starting pitcher (Stiever),  a few relievers and some guys hanging on to the bottom of expanded rosters.
I remain unconvinced that Hostelter's drafts were even average, much less quality.

Edited September 15, 2020 by GreenSox

[bmags]

12 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

You have a generous definition of a major leaguer.  Way too many high picks were wasted under Hostetler.  Overall, there is one major league starter (Madrigal, top 5 pick), one possible major league starting pitcher (Stiever),  a few relievers and some guys hanging on to the bottom of expanded rosters.
I remain unconvinced that Hostelter's drafts were even average, much less quality.

Not really.

[southsider2k5]

23 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

You have a generous definition of a major leaguer.  Way too many high picks were wasted under Hostetler.  Overall, there is one major league starter (Madrigal, top 5 pick), one possible major league starting pitcher (Stiever),  a few relievers and some guys hanging on to the bottom of expanded rosters.
I remain unconvinced that Hostelter's drafts were even average, much less quality.

The answer is literally in the title.

[Dominikk85]

26 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

You have a generous definition of a major leaguer.  Way too many high picks were wasted under Hostetler.  Overall, there is one major league starter (Madrigal, top 5 pick), one possible major league starting pitcher (Stiever),  a few relievers and some guys hanging on to the bottom of expanded rosters.
I remain unconvinced that Hostelter's drafts were even average, much less quality.

Shouldn't vaughn be mentioned as he very likely is a major leaguer?

[Harold's Leg Lift]

1 hour ago, GreenSox said:

You have a generous definition of a major leaguer.  Way too many high picks were wasted under Hostetler.  Overall, there is one major league starter (Madrigal, top 5 pick), one possible major league starting pitcher (Stiever),  a few relievers and some guys hanging on to the bottom of expanded rosters.
I remain unconvinced that Hostelter's drafts were even average, much less quality.

The term you're looking for is low impact.  They drafted a lot of low impact players.  Vaughn and Stiever are the only ones on that list with a very good chance to be high impact players.  The high impact players on this team (other than Tim) were acquired thru trade or free agency which tells you everything you need to know about how they felt about their ability to draft and develop players.  

[Chicago White Sox]

On 9/14/2020 at 12:27 PM, Harold's Leg Lift said:

They didn't wiff on him.  Everyone involed thought it was best for Alec to establish himself in another organaization where he didn't have the added pressure of being the hometown kid and playing in an organization where his father was an employee.  They did him a solid by not drafting him.  

The first time the organization avoids nepotism the player is actually worth a damn.

[Chicago White Sox]

On 9/14/2020 at 10:12 AM, bmags said:

I wanted to put down some thoughts, if you scroll down you see the bolded indicate guys who were drafted since 2016 who made the majors. To avoid quibbling - that is actually a big feat. This review is EARLY, and we will see the full impact. But as of now, we are seeing a number of players contribute on a division contending team with two weeks to go.

My initial take on Hostetler drafts:

I was very negative on this era. I hated the lack of athleticism drafted overall. It was way too college heavy and lacked upside. For years, we saw our only top 100 representatives being our trade acquisitions or top 5 picks who automatically slate there.

His line that he was looking to build up system depth annoyed be since for years he emphasized that he only cared about BPA, which seemed like a contradiction. And my belief was that trying to be safer and build "depth" just meant you were getting guys that were hitting their ceilings in AA instead of the possibility of fizzling out in low-a  - which can happen with younger, higher upside picks.

It's time to revise that opinion.

A look on his drafts (1-10 only just for brevity, though I'll point out guys that made it after like Mendick)

2016 (in order from rounds 1-10)

Zach Collins, Zack Burdi, Alec Hansen, Alex Call, Jameson Fisher, Jimmy Lambert, Luis Corbelo, Bernardo Flores, Nate Nolan, Zach Remillard

Later picks that made it: Ian Hamilton (11), Matt Foster (20) (edit: hat tip to Y2Jimmy!)

2017 (worst draft by far)

Jake Burger, Gavin Sheets, Luis Gonzalez, Lincoln Henzman, Tyler Johnson, Kade McClure, Evan Skoug, Sam Abbot, Craig Dedelow, JB Olson

2018

Nick Madrigal, Steele Walker, Konnor Pilkington, Lency Delgado, Jonathan Stiever, Codi Heuer, Cabera Weaver, Andrew Perez, Gunnar Troutwine, Bennet Sousa

2019

Andrew Vaughn (top 30 prospect), Matthew Thompson, Andrew Dalquist, James Beard, Dan Metzdorf, Avery Weems, Karen Patel, Ivan Gonzalez, Tyson Messer, Pawelczyk, Nate

 

4 drafts, 5 years ago:

11 major leaguers and almost certainly 12 (Vaughn).

That is depth. 

The quibbles: 

- Luis Gonzalez almost certainly a child of circumstance, but he made it to a level where it was possible. That's still good. Not always the case.

- The 2017 draft is just absolute trash.

- A lot of capital was spent on bullpen, and of Ian Hamilton, Johnson and Heuer, only heuer has really shown himself but he's been huge.

 

The still bad:

- His 2nd round picks and paying overslot for college juniors will just always baffle me.

 

Bottom line:

11 is a lot, and yes, he picked a lot. A team similar to us (top picks during the time and didn't get freebie balance picks) is the phillies, who have seen 6 during that time. 

If Hostetler set out to get depth, it appears he did that, and it paid off at the right time in supplementing the sox during a year of competition and high injuries.

I am still a bigger fan of Shirley's style, and think the higher upside picks will be more valuable as trade currency if not impact starters. But the emergence of Stiever, what Lambert showed, and Heuer have made me really reverse myself on how hostetler performed. I'm not going to say he was amazing - he did have tremendous draft resources! - but it was a much better record than I realized in the later rounds in the draft.

And a poster whose name I don't remember pointed out that I was wrong, and he was right, so sorry to that guy if you read this.

Technically Hostetler ran the 2015 draft after our 1st round pick.  We didn’t have 2nd or 3rd picks but he did select Mendick in the 22nd round!