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Offseason Targets


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45 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

If you read my post, I said the Cubs chip in $15-20M in cash so its 3/$52-57M and no the Cubs are not getting a decent prospect in that deal. It’s a salary dump and Heyward would be getting paid what he’s worth as a 2 WAR/year RF.

Why in the world would we commit $17M/$18M a year for a 2 win RF?  That would be a horrible use of resources.

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From my calculations we have around 21 spots more or less accounted for at a total cost of around $97M.

  • Lineup (8): Anderson (SS), Moncada (3B), Grandal (C), Abreu (1B), Jiménez (RF), Vaughn (DH), Robert (CF), Madrigal (2B)
  • Bench (3): Mendick (IF), Engel (OF), Garcia (UT)
  • Rotation (4): Giolito (#1), Keuchel (#3), Dunning (#4), Cease / Kopech (#5)
  • Bullpen (6): Bummer (L), Marshall (R), Heuer (R), Foster (R), Fry (L), Cordero (R)

In a normal environment, I’d put a payroll target for us of around $140M.  That means we’d have about $43M to fill five holes.  Here’s how I’d rank the offseason priorities accordingly:

  1. TOR starter
  2. Right field
  3. High leverage reliever
  4. Swingman
  5. Backup catcher
  6. *Oscar Colas*

IMO, Bauer is the one guy who transforms this team, but damn would he eat up the bulk of our budget.  My guess is that on a short-term deal he’s looking for at least an AAV of $35M.  And at that price, you really couldn’t fill your other holes.   If Reinsdorf is willing to push the payroll up to $150M then I’m all-in on Bauer and will find a way to make the rest work.  But my assumption is a hard cap of $140M so we would have to go into a different direction.  At the moment, that direction would be Stroman.  Still on the right side of 30 but coming off injury, he can probably be had for a Dallas Keuchel type contract and would fit our ballpark well.  Let’s assume he can be had for something around 3/$54M.

Switching to RF, to me Joc Pederson should be the guy we target right from the get go.  Coming off a horrible season he should come cheap and only require a one year commitment.  Given my expectations that we end up signing Oscar Colas to be the long-term answer, a Joc/Engel platoon is the perfect stop-gap for a year.  Hard to predict what kind of salary he’d get, but for now let’s assume something around 1/$9M gets it done.

So after those two moves, we’re now down to about $16M to fill our remaining three holes.  Without question the next big move is getting one veteran reliever who can anchor a young bullpen.  I like the young core we have in place and I think that Burdi & Tyler Johnson will be pushing for long-term roles next year and that Crotchet (if healthy) will factor in at some point once he’s built up some innings in the minors.  That being said, the name of the game is depth and I want to start from a position of strength with a legit high leverage arm in the closer role on day one.  People may not love this, but I’d go hard after Kirby Yates on a one year deal.  He lost his 2020 season due to bone chips, but otherwise I believe the stuff was still elite despite some poor numbers.  Offer him the closer role and a 1/$12.5M contract and see if that gets it done.

That leaves about $3.5M for a swingman and backup catcher.  If it’s not painfully obvious by now, there is no chance McCann is coming back and us being able to fill our other holes.  I know it will be unpopular, but I’m going with Collins as my backup catcher to start the 2021 season and letting Grandal a good 120+ games behind the plate next year.  That leaves about $3M for a swingman and Carlos Rodon & Reynaldo Lopez are both options theoretically, but I think I’m ready to move on from them.  With that said, not sure I’m able to identify a perfect option at this time.  A ton of players will likely be non-tendered this offseason, so some interesting options could be in play at a $3M price point.  If healthy, a guy like Collin McHugh could make some sense, but ideally it would be someone younger with a little less bust potential.

TLDR - If Bauer is out of our budget, give me Stroman, Pederson, Yates, and the best possible swing-man possible for $3M.  Add Oscar Colas as an amateur signing & eventual RF successor and call it an offseason.  Kopech starts the year in AAA (to regain extra year of team control) and eventually bumps Cease or Dunning out of the rotation.  Burdi, Johnson, & Crotchet (if healthy) eventually come up as bullpen reinforcements.  All minor league capital is retained and saved for mid-season additions if necessary.  May not be the sexiest offseason, but $43M goes fast and it fills each major hole with a high end talent even if they each come with some question marks.

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2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why in the world would we commit $17M/$18M a year for a 2 win RF?  That would be a horrible use of resources.

I guess I’m tired of sending negative value guys out there like we have the last three seasons. Unless they’re willing to spend $130M+ for Springer (doubt they are), I don’t see many better RF options (that wouldn’t cost significant prospects in return).

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40 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

From my calculations we have around 21 spots more or less accounted for at a total cost of around $97M.

  • Lineup (8): Anderson (SS), Moncada (3B), Grandal (C), Abreu (1B), Jiménez (RF), Vaughn (DH), Robert (CF), Madrigal (2B)
  • Bench (3): Mendick (IF), Engel (OF), Garcia (UT)
  • Rotation (4): Giolito (#1), Keuchel (#3), Dunning (#4), Cease / Kopech (#5)
  • Bullpen (6): Bummer (L), Marshall (R), Heuer (R), Foster (R), Fry (L), Cordero (R)

In a normal environment, I’d put a payroll target for us of around $140M.  That means we’d have about $43M to fill five holes.  Here’s how I’d rank the offseason priorities accordingly:

  1. TOR starter
  2. Right field
  3. High leverage reliever
  4. Swingman
  5. Backup catcher
  6. *Oscar Colas*

IMO, Bauer is the one guy who transforms this team, but damn would he eat up the bulk of our budget.  My guess is that on a short-term deal he’s looking for at least an AAV of $35M.  And at that price, you really couldn’t fill your other holes.   If Reinsdorf is willing to push the payroll up to $150M then I’m all-in on Bauer and will find a way to make the rest work.  But my assumption is a hard cap of $140M so we would have to go into a different direction.  At the moment, that direction would be Stroman.  Still on the right side of 30 but coming off injury, he can probably be had for a Dallas Keuchel type contract and would fit our ballpark well.  Let’s assume he can be had for something around 3/$54M.

Switching to RF, to me Joc Pederson should be the guy we target right from the get go.  Coming off a horrible season he should come cheap and only require a one year commitment.  Given my expectations that we end up signing Oscar Colas to be the long-term answer, a Joc/Engel platoon is the perfect stop-gap for a year.  Hard to predict what kind of salary he’d get, but for now let’s assume something around 1/$9M gets it done.

So after those two moves, we’re now down to about $16M to fill our remaining three holes.  Without question the next big move is getting one veteran reliever who can anchor a young bullpen.  I like the young core we have in place and I think that Burdi & Tyler Johnson will be pushing for long-term roles next year and that Crotchet (if healthy) will factor in at some point once he’s built up some innings in the minors.  That being said, the name of the game is depth and I want to start from a position of strength with a legit high leverage arm in the closer role on day one.  People may not love this, but I’d go hard after Kirby Yates on a one year deal.  He lost his 2020 season due to bone chips, but otherwise I believe the stuff was still elite despite some poor numbers.  Offer him the closer role and a 1/$12.5M contract and see if that gets it done.

That leaves about $3.5M for a swingman and backup catcher.  If it’s not painfully obvious by now, there is no chance McCann is coming back and us being able to fill our other holes.  I know it will be unpopular, but I’m going with Collins as my backup catcher to start the 2021 season and letting Grandal a good 120+ games behind the plate next year.  That leaves about $3M for a swingman and Carlos Rodon & Reynaldo Lopez are both options theoretically, but I think I’m ready to move on from them.  With that said, not sure I’m able to identify a perfect option at this time.  A ton of players will likely be non-tendered this offseason, so some interesting options could be in play at a $3M price point.  If healthy, a guy like Collin McHugh could make some sense, but ideally it would be someone younger with a little less bust potential.

TLDR - If Bauer is out of our budget, give me Stroman, Pederson, Yates, and the best possible swing-man possible for $3M.  Add Oscar Colas as an amateur signing & eventual RF successor and call it an offseason.  Kopech starts the year in AAA (to regain extra year of team control) and eventually bumps Cease or Dunning out of the rotation.  Burdi, Johnson, & Crotchet (if healthy) eventually come up as bullpen reinforcements.  All minor league capital is retained and saved for mid-season additions if necessary.  May not be the sexiest offseason, but $43M goes fast and it fills each major hole with a high end talent even if they each come with some question marks.

I agree w your assessment of the situation. 

As Sox fans let’s play would you rather...

 

A. would you rather have Bauer, resign Colome (or someone less expensive), live with Collins as backup C, bring back Mazara or grab another left handed hitter from the expected DFA scrap heap 

OR

B. would you rather have Stroman, Colome (or someone Hahn deems better) Joc P and a better backup catcher? 
 

i’d rather have Option A w Bauer. I’m sick of the second tier signings consistently disappointing. 

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48 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

From my calculations we have around 21 spots more or less accounted for at a total cost of around $97M.

  • Lineup (8): Anderson (SS), Moncada (3B), Grandal (C), Abreu (1B), Jiménez (RF), Vaughn (DH), Robert (CF), Madrigal (2B)
  • Bench (3): Mendick (IF), Engel (OF), Garcia (UT)
  • Rotation (4): Giolito (#1), Keuchel (#3), Dunning (#4), Cease / Kopech (#5)
  • Bullpen (6): Bummer (L), Marshall (R), Heuer (R), Foster (R), Fry (L), Cordero (R)

In a normal environment, I’d put a payroll target for us of around $140M.  That means we’d have about $43M to fill five holes.  Here’s how I’d rank the offseason priorities accordingly:

  1. TOR starter
  2. Right field
  3. High leverage reliever
  4. Swingman
  5. Backup catcher
  6. *Oscar Colas*

IMO, Bauer is the one guy who transforms this team, but damn would he eat up the bulk of our budget.  My guess is that on a short-term deal he’s looking for at least an AAV of $35M.  And at that price, you really couldn’t fill your other holes.   If Reinsdorf is willing to push the payroll up to $150M then I’m all-in on Bauer and will find a way to make the rest work.  But my assumption is a hard cap of $140M so we would have to go into a different direction.  At the moment, that direction would be Stroman.  Still on the right side of 30 but coming off injury, he can probably be had for a Dallas Keuchel type contract and would fit our ballpark well.  Let’s assume he can be had for something around 3/$54M.

Switching to RF, to me Joc Pederson should be the guy we target right from the get go.  Coming off a horrible season he should come cheap and only require a one year commitment.  Given my expectations that we end up signing Oscar Colas to be the long-term answer, a Joc/Engel platoon is the perfect stop-gap for a year.  Hard to predict what kind of salary he’d get, but for now let’s assume something around 1/$9M gets it done.

So after those two moves, we’re now down to about $16M to fill our remaining three holes.  Without question the next big move is getting one veteran reliever who can anchor a young bullpen.  I like the young core we have in place and I think that Burdi & Tyler Johnson will be pushing for long-term roles next year and that Crotchet (if healthy) will factor in at some point once he’s built up some innings in the minors.  That being said, the name of the game is depth and I want to start from a position of strength with a legit high leverage arm in the closer role on day one.  People may not love this, but I’d go hard after Kirby Yates on a one year deal.  He lost his 2020 season due to bone chips, but otherwise I believe the stuff was still elite despite some poor numbers.  Offer him the closer role and a 1/$12.5M contract and see if that gets it done.

That leaves about $3.5M for a swingman and backup catcher.  If it’s not painfully obvious by now, there is no chance McCann is coming back and us being able to fill our other holes.  I know it will be unpopular, but I’m going with Collins as my backup catcher to start the 2021 season and letting Grandal a good 120+ games behind the plate next year.  That leaves about $3M for a swingman and Carlos Rodon & Reynaldo Lopez are both options theoretically, but I think I’m ready to move on from them.  With that said, not sure I’m able to identify a perfect option at this time.  A ton of players will likely be non-tendered this offseason, so some interesting options could be in play at a $3M price point.  If healthy, a guy like Collin McHugh could make some sense, but ideally it would be someone younger with a little less bust potential.

TLDR - If Bauer is out of our budget, give me Stroman, Pederson, Yates, and the best possible swing-man possible for $3M.  Add Oscar Colas as an amateur signing & eventual RF successor and call it an offseason.  Kopech starts the year in AAA (to regain extra year of team control) and eventually bumps Cease or Dunning out of the rotation.  Burdi, Johnson, & Crotchet (if healthy) eventually come up as bullpen reinforcements.  All minor league capital is retained and saved for mid-season additions if necessary.  May not be the sexiest offseason, but $43M goes fast and it fills each major hole with a high end talent even if they each come with some question marks.

Yates is a lot like Marshall.

He got on a huge roll in 2019, but not sure he can ever repeat that.   He was terrible in the early going in 2020, although obviously part of that was injury-related and partly a loss of confidence...an inter-related combination.

And I’m not sure he will have sunk all the way from the “best” or at least most effective NL reliever for the majority of 2019 all the way down to a $3 million Make good contract if you look at the money for guys like Herrera or even Cishek.   Thinking at least $5-6 million with the possibility of doubling that number with achievable incentives.

Like Colome, he can quite frequently be a tightrope reliever...the second half of last season and early this year, he was more like late career Bobby Jenks.  

Of course, as noted, Rosenthal and especially Hendriks will get significantly more.

 

Glad to see more and more are now on the Gausman bandwagon, though.

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57 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

From my calculations we have around 21 spots more or less accounted for at a total cost of around $97M.

  • Lineup (8): Anderson (SS), Moncada (3B), Grandal (C), Abreu (1B), Jiménez (RF), Vaughn (DH), Robert (CF), Madrigal (2B)
  • Bench (3): Mendick (IF), Engel (OF), Garcia (UT)
  • Rotation (4): Giolito (#1), Keuchel (#3), Dunning (#4), Cease / Kopech (#5)
  • Bullpen (6): Bummer (L), Marshall (R), Heuer (R), Foster (R), Fry (L), Cordero (R)

In a normal environment, I’d put a payroll target for us of around $140M.  That means we’d have about $43M to fill five holes.  Here’s how I’d rank the offseason priorities accordingly:

  1. TOR starter
  2. Right field
  3. High leverage reliever
  4. Swingman
  5. Backup catcher
  6. *Oscar Colas*

IMO, Bauer is the one guy who transforms this team, but damn would he eat up the bulk of our budget.  My guess is that on a short-term deal he’s looking for at least an AAV of $35M.  And at that price, you really couldn’t fill your other holes.   If Reinsdorf is willing to push the payroll up to $150M then I’m all-in on Bauer and will find a way to make the rest work.  But my assumption is a hard cap of $140M so we would have to go into a different direction.  At the moment, that direction would be Stroman.  Still on the right side of 30 but coming off injury, he can probably be had for a Dallas Keuchel type contract and would fit our ballpark well.  Let’s assume he can be had for something around 3/$54M.

Switching to RF, to me Joc Pederson should be the guy we target right from the get go.  Coming off a horrible season he should come cheap and only require a one year commitment.  Given my expectations that we end up signing Oscar Colas to be the long-term answer, a Joc/Engel platoon is the perfect stop-gap for a year.  Hard to predict what kind of salary he’d get, but for now let’s assume something around 1/$9M gets it done.

So after those two moves, we’re now down to about $16M to fill our remaining three holes.  Without question the next big move is getting one veteran reliever who can anchor a young bullpen.  I like the young core we have in place and I think that Burdi & Tyler Johnson will be pushing for long-term roles next year and that Crotchet (if healthy) will factor in at some point once he’s built up some innings in the minors.  That being said, the name of the game is depth and I want to start from a position of strength with a legit high leverage arm in the closer role on day one.  People may not love this, but I’d go hard after Kirby Yates on a one year deal.  He lost his 2020 season due to bone chips, but otherwise I believe the stuff was still elite despite some poor numbers.  Offer him the closer role and a 1/$12.5M contract and see if that gets it done.

That leaves about $3.5M for a swingman and backup catcher.  If it’s not painfully obvious by now, there is no chance McCann is coming back and us being able to fill our other holes.  I know it will be unpopular, but I’m going with Collins as my backup catcher to start the 2021 season and letting Grandal a good 120+ games behind the plate next year.  That leaves about $3M for a swingman and Carlos Rodon & Reynaldo Lopez are both options theoretically, but I think I’m ready to move on from them.  With that said, not sure I’m able to identify a perfect option at this time.  A ton of players will likely be non-tendered this offseason, so some interesting options could be in play at a $3M price point.  If healthy, a guy like Collin McHugh could make some sense, but ideally it would be someone younger with a little less bust potential.

TLDR - If Bauer is out of our budget, give me Stroman, Pederson, Yates, and the best possible swing-man possible for $3M.  Add Oscar Colas as an amateur signing & eventual RF successor and call it an offseason.  Kopech starts the year in AAA (to regain extra year of team control) and eventually bumps Cease or Dunning out of the rotation.  Burdi, Johnson, & Crotchet (if healthy) eventually come up as bullpen reinforcements.  All minor league capital is retained and saved for mid-season additions if necessary.  May not be the sexiest offseason, but $43M goes fast and it fills each major hole with a high end talent even if they each come with some question marks.

Really well thought out. Would love to add Bauer but am not optimistic. I'm skeptical of Pedersons interest in leaving the west coast and would rather we target Benintendi or Tauchman in trade, either of whom would be far less expensive and play better defense. Guessing we could put together a trade package for either that preserves our best young pitchers (something like Lopez plus Rutherford). Of course our pitching needs will be somewhat influenced by the health of Crochet. I've seen enough of his stuff to be convinced he can be a big help in 2021 in a variety of roles. I also wouldn't throw up if we somehow came away with Lance Lynn.

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I wouldn’t be too surprised if they stuck with a Mazara/Engel/Leury platoon. I know Mazara had a bad year, but he was sick and never recovered. The season ended on what basically would have been June 1, over 100 fewer games than normal, and he was starting to show signs of coming out of it. You just have to be ignorant to think he doesn’t have more power than he provided. If you think Engel’s offense is real, and Vaughn is going to be with the team, a platoon in RF makes some sense because as long as Eloy and Robert are healthy, there isn’t much playing time in the OF. 
 

I don’t know why you want to pay Joc. How much better was he than Mazara in 2020 if 2020 stats are the end all?

 

That said, this might be a crazy offseason. I read there might be over 300 non tenders. If JR is willing to spend money, there are probably guys available we wouldn’t think are available.

Edited by Dick Allen
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My targets: 

Scenario A-Jerry is willing to spend to put the team over the top

1. Bauer

2. Conforto(trade) 

3. Hendriks 

4. Brantley for DH

5. Quintana 

Go to war with this

 

Scenario B: Sox are staying out of the top of the FA market, but winning to spend a little bit 

1. Gallen or Woodruff (Trade) 

2. Nimmo (Trade) 

3. Odorizzi

4. Brantley for DH

5. Benintendi for Lopez

 

Scenario C  Minimal spending

1. Gallen or Woodruff (Trade) 

2. Benintendi for Lopez

3. Brantley for DH

4. Odorizzi or Quintana if they're willing to spend there 

 

Gallen or Woodruff would probably take Cease and Dunning and I'm fine with that. 

Nimmo is interesting...he has 2 years left. I'd be willing to trade Madrigal + and go sign a 2B stopgap to acquire him. 

 

Prospects I don't want to trade: 

Vaughn

Kopech

Crochet

Kelley

Anyone else is available, including Madrigal, Cease and Dunning. 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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27 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Joc just seems like a guy that would bust with the Sox and make it 4 straight seasons of a negative value player starting in RF. Surely we can do better?

I don’t know what makes you say that.  Dude has proven to be a high-end hitter against RHP and is only 28 years old.  Yes, his shitty 2020 season is a concern, but we’re not talking about some mid 30’s free agent at the tail-end of his career.

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35 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Yates is a lot like Marshall.

He got on a huge roll in 2019, but not sure he can ever repeat that.   He was terrible in the early going in 2020, although obviously part of that was injury-related and partly a loss of confidence...an inter-related combination.

And I’m not sure he will have sunk all the way from the “best” or at least most effective NL reliever for the majority of 2019 all the way down to a $3 million Make good contract if you look at the money for guys like Herrera or even Cishek.   Thinking at least $5-6 million with the possibility of doubling that number with achievable incentives.

Like Colome, he can quite frequently be a tightrope reliever...the second half of last season and early this year, he was more like late career Bobby Jenks.  

Of course, as noted, Rosenthal and especially Hendriks will get significantly more.

 

Glad to see more and more are now on the Gausman bandwagon, though.

I said to sign Yates to a 1/$12.5M role with the opportunity to be our opening day closer.

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22 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I wouldn’t be too surprised if they stuck with a Mazara/Engel/Leury platoon. I know Mazara had a bad year, but he was sick and never recovered. The season ended on what basically would have been June 1, over 100 fewer games than normal, and he was starting to show signs of coming out of it. You just have to be ignorant to think he doesn’t have more power than he provided. If you think Engel’s offense is real, and Vaughn is going to be with the team, a platoon in RF makes some sense because as long as Eloy and Robert are healthy, there isn’t much playing time in the OF. 
 

I don’t know why you want to pay Joc. How much better was he than Mazara in 2020 if 2020 stats are the end all?

 

That said, this might be a crazy offseason. I read there might be over 300 non tenders. If JR is willing to spend money, there are probably guys available we wouldn’t think are available.

Who thinks 2020 stats are the end all?  

And Joc posted a 140 wRC+ over the 2018 & 2019 seasons against RHP while Mazara has more or less be league average or slightly above against RHP.  These two players aren’t even comparable in terms of production and despite both coming off horrible seasons, I’m going to take the player with an actual track record of success than the one who has consistently underperformed over the course of their career.

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5 minutes ago, fathom said:

Gallen or Woodruff would cost a ton...more than anyone would be comfortable with 

I think Cease and Dunning as the centerpieces would be enough. 

I'm not particularly high on either guy but 99 mph and + command are things that teams look for. 

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32 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I don’t know what makes you say that.  Dude has proven to be a high-end hitter against RHP and is only 28 years old.  Yes, his shitty 2020 season is a concern, but we’re not talking about some mid 30’s free agent at the tail-end of his career.

Sorry, guess I have lost faith in the low batting average, high strikeout, platoon player making the move from the NL to AL coming off a bad year bounce back guys. Certainly seems like a recipe for another negative WAR starter in RF in 2021 to me. We should aim higher.

Edited by JUSTgottaBELIEVE
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5 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

If you read my post, I said the Cubs chip in $15-20M in cash so its 3/$52-57M and no the Cubs are not getting a decent prospect in that deal. It’s a salary dump and Heyward would be getting paid what he’s worth as a 2 WAR/year RF.

They're 100% going to ask for a decent prospect in the deal if they're chipping in $5 - $6.3 million a year for a guy who would put up ~2 WAR. They'd be stupid not to.

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24 minutes ago, almagest said:

They're 100% going to ask for a decent prospect in the deal if they're chipping in $5 - $6.3 million a year for a guy who would put up ~2 WAR. They'd be stupid not to.

Then you pass. But I’m not a fan of signing Joc so what other realistic options are there for RF? I don’t consider Springer a realistic option.

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54 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Sorry, guess I have lost faith in the low batting average, high strikeout, platoon player making the move from the NL to AL coming off a bad year bounce back guys. Certainly seems like a recipe for another negative WAR starter in RF in 2021 to me. We should aim higher.

Why does it matter if a position player moves from the NL to the AL?

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1. New Manager, 2. Completely new coaching staff...especially a new pitching coach...Don Cooper is worthless. 4. Get rid of hitters Encarnacion and Mazara. 5. Find a solid DH ( hopefully Andrew Vaughn is ready for that slot) and find a productive power hitting right fielder. 6. Lose pitchers Cordero, Fry and Gonzalez in the bullpen. Other than these obvious moves, the most important move is to get a new manager with an excellent coaching staff. some of our young pitchers are ultra talented and just need a real coach to work on their pitches and mechanics. The same goes on the hitting side. We need to have someone fine tune our hitters so they learn to be more patient at the plate and not swing at so many pitches outside the zone.  

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