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Offseason Targets


soxfan49
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5 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'm on the fence.

On one side, I think I would pay a lot for a young, proven, cost controlled starter like Marquez who has top-notch stuff and has shown immense durability.

On the other side, I am concerned about trading Kopech because his ceiling is possibly higher than Marquez. Cease, I would be more willing to listen and a package built around Cease/Madrigal (even though I like Big sticks) couldn't potentially hurt you as much as putting Kopech in a trade could. The odds that Cease is as good as Marquez is not all that high - it's possible, but just not likely - and Madrigal is a really nice piece IF you are a team who can't spend money. If the Sox want to start spending, and they want to replace Madrigal with a veteran who costs 10 times as much that's fin with me.

In general, I'd trade likely anyone but Vaughn/Kopech in the deal to the Rockies. Marquez is one of my favorite arms in all of baseball, so I am a bit bias on this one but I'd give up A LOT to get Marquez under the roof for the next 4 years.

I'd put Crochet in the untouchable category. LHP that throw 101 and have decent command don't grow on trees.

I'd move Vaughn in the *Right* deal. Like for Kyle Tucker. 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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Just now, bmags said:

I obviously like the talent, but I just don't think the sox are at a point where they need to pay out of depth for the exhorbitant talent price for cost-control.

I think by giving up the cost control for Madrigal and replacing it with a cost controlled arm you do two things:

1. You lock in a rotation spot without spending a ton of money; even if Jerry is willing to open up the pocketbook a bit this off-season I just don't see a big money pitcher with him in charge; ever. He has a reluctance to go to 4-5 years with any pitcher, and after the John Danks fiasco I think it just cemented his archaic view on not giving pitchers big long term money. 

2. You allow yourself to spend more money on the position side because your owner feels more comfortable giving out big money on that side of the ball.

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Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I think by giving up the cost control for Madrigal and replacing it with a cost controlled arm you do two things:

1. You lock in a rotation spot without spending a ton of money; even if Jerry is willing to open up the pocketbook a bit this off-season I just don't see a big money pitcher with him in charge; ever. He has a reluctance to go to 4-5 years with any pitcher, and after the John Danks fiasco I think it just cemented his archaic view on not giving pitchers big long term money. 

2. You allow yourself to spend more money on the position side because your owner feels more comfortable giving out big money on that side of the ball.

This is using that madrigal assumption but I just can't imagine the rockies seeing Nick Madrigal as a prize. Obviously at the right price, marquez is one of the best pitchers we could get, control or not. But I just have a hard time believing that's what the rox would want.

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1 minute ago, sox71 said:

I am not for trading Vaughn, Madrigal, or any of the three high school pitching studs.  No way any of these are worth it for one year of Lynn either.  We have waited a long time for this and free agency is the main route to go.  Kenny/Rick just need to convince Jerry to spend.   

Would you trade Vaughn for Kyle Tucker? 

Serious question. 

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Just now, bmags said:

This is using that madrigal assumption but I just can't imagine the rockies seeing Nick Madrigal as a prize. Obviously at the right price, marquez is one of the best pitchers we could get, control or not. But I just have a hard time believing that's what the rox would want.

Agree, but we're talking about the Rockies. Dan Szymborski's been reminding me - I feel like daily - for years that the Rockies don't operate as a normal team because they're full of complete morons and trying to evaluate anything logically when discussing them is pointless. Ian Desmond; the 10 reliever off-season and on and on. 

Madrigal had a high batting average, and was a top prospect, and the Rockies very well may view him as a superstar in the making. Or better yet, maybe they love someone that we don't. You never know.

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4 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

So they'd have to trade 2.5 Clevingers for 1 Marquez??? Yeah... When are you going to stop babling about surplus value

When it stops being the key data point in trades. If you have another/better way to weigh trade values other than the mental masturbation of offering hypotheticals from among lesser valued players because you aren't interested in parting with players of similar value, enjoy. 

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1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Agree, but we're talking about the Rockies. Dan Szymborski's been reminding me - I feel like daily - for years that the Rockies don't operate as a normal team because they're full of complete morons and trying to evaluate anything logically when discussing them is pointless. Ian Desmond; the 10 reliever off-season and on and on. 

Madrigal had a high batting average, and was a top prospect, and the Rockies very well may view him as a superstar in the making. Or better yet, maybe they love someone that we don't. You never know.

Madrigal getting to hit in that gigantic OF would probably hit .350 and have 30 triples a season.  All of that space to play with and his bat control?  It would be fun to watch.

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1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Madrigal getting to hit in that gigantic OF would probably hit .350 and have 30 triples a season.  All of that space to play with and his bat control?  It would be fun to watch.

I think Nick is going to be a nice player; I'm a little more down on him than I was going into last off-season because of the baserunning and defensive miscues. I want to give him a pass due to the unique nature of his debut season, but his decision making isn't something that should really waver as you advance and the defensive miscues were shocking - frankly - given how sure handed he was in college and beyond.

I still think you're looking at a solid MLB starter for a long time - with a sprinkle of 1 or 2 potential AS appearances if things go right - but I was definitely disappointed in the decision making and mental errors from a guy who really shouldn't make any.

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

6 years of control and unestablished at the big leagues for 5 years of control and established? Yes.

Tucker is a better overall player; if the decision was, Vaughn/Springer or Tucker/Rotating DH I'd go Vaughn/Springer. If the DH or 1B spot was filled with quality, I'd go Tucker. 

The Astros on the other hand, would never do that deal.

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FanGraphs pegs WS 2021 payroll at @$104M w/o Rodon and Mazara. Not sure whats going to happen w/revenue in this environment but adding $30M/yr. seems reasonable, assuming no disaster scenarios. You can contemplate several interesting combinations of targets for $30-35M.

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8 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Agree, but we're talking about the Rockies. Dan Szymborski's been reminding me - I feel like daily - for years that the Rockies don't operate as a normal team because they're full of complete morons and trying to evaluate anything logically when discussing them is pointless. Ian Desmond; the 10 reliever off-season and on and on. 

Madrigal had a high batting average, and was a top prospect, and the Rockies very well may view him as a superstar in the making. Or better yet, maybe they love someone that we don't. You never know.

I used to laugh at them but then their insane decisions still ended up netting them more playoff appearances than the sox during the 2010s (not hard).

 

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5 minutes ago, Flash said:

FanGraphs pegs WS 2021 payroll at @$104M w/o Rodon and Mazara. Not sure whats going to happen w/revenue in this environment but adding $30M/yr. seems reasonable, assuming no disaster scenarios. You can contemplate several interesting combinations of targets for $30-35M.

If they are only willing to add 30 million in payroll this team is NOT serious about winning a world series and going for it. IF they can get Springer and a good starter that entire budget is gone. it's gotta be more realistic in the 35-45 mil range. 

Edited by EloyJenkins
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9 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I think Nick is going to be a nice player; I'm a little more down on him than I was going into last off-season because of the baserunning and defensive miscues. I want to give him a pass due to the unique nature of his debut season, but his decision making isn't something that should really waver as you advance and the defensive miscues were shocking - frankly - given how sure handed he was in college and beyond.

I still think you're looking at a solid MLB starter for a long time - with a sprinkle of 1 or 2 potential AS appearances if things go right - but I was definitely disappointed in the decision making and mental errors from a guy who really shouldn't make any.

I know I have said it before, but he looked like a kid trying to do too much.  He didn't just forget his baseball IQ, it really felt like someone who was trying to make an impression and win a job all in one play.

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26 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Thank goodness for that; have no desire in watching fly ball after fly ball sore out of the park. One of the huge draws to Marquez for me is his GB%; being in the top 10 amongst starters workers and plays well at our ballpark.

Yeah, I mean Odorizzi would be fine back up option on a 1 year prove it deal, but he's not a great fit for Sox Park. He's likely to sign elsewhere, IMO.  I know the Twins want to retain him and have a bid on the table.  

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27 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Would you trade Vaughn for Kyle Tucker? 

Serious question. 

I probably would.  Means we can sign someone like Brantley for LF and move Eloy to DH most of the time where he belongs.  Much better fit for our team in the near time, and slugging 1B/DH can almost always be found on the FA market.  

Not sure why the Astros make that deal though.  

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12 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I probably would.  Means we can sign someone like Brantley for LF and move Eloy to DH most of the time where he belongs.  Much better fit for our team in the near time, and slugging 1B/DH can almost always be found on the FA market.  

Not sure why the Astros make that deal though.  

Probably? You absolutely do that and enjoy the best outfield in baseball. And honestly it allows you to resign McCann and shuffle DH between Abreu, McCann and Eloy, which would keep them all fresh. I would HATE losing vaughn, but this is a no brainer type deal as with the money saved on OF you go hard after Bauer or 2 starters like Paxton/Kluber/Quintana. 

Edited by EloyJenkins
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32 minutes ago, Flash said:

FanGraphs pegs WS 2021 payroll at @$104M w/o Rodon and Mazara. Not sure whats going to happen w/revenue in this environment but adding $30M/yr. seems reasonable, assuming no disaster scenarios. You can contemplate several interesting combinations of targets for $30-35M.

Somethin is f***ed up here. Fangraphs shows Robert getting $3.5 million this year, B-R shows him getting $7.83 million. Their contract totals are shown different. 

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28 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I know I have said it before, but he looked like a kid trying to do too much.  He didn't just forget his baseball IQ, it really felt like someone who was trying to make an impression and win a job all in one play.

I agree he doesn't provide the things that the modern game looks for and as such may press to show what his talent is.

I also do not think the Sox will get the value back in a trade.  Nothing jumps off the page so it appears to some that he brings nothing to the team that is not easily replaced.

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2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Somethin is f***ed up here. Fangraphs shows Robert getting $3.5 million this year, B-R shows him getting $7.83 million. Their contract totals are shown different. 

Yoan is about to get 6.8 million, so I would bet on the lower number being right.  Considering the initial term is 6/43, the 3.5 million seems right.

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