Offseason Targets

[bmags]

11 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Austin Jackson's contract didn't cripple the organization for a few years.  That was definitely the better move.  

To be fair, the first contract was fine. It was his next one that crippled them.

[Sox80]

3 minutes ago, maloney.adam said:

From what Hahn said in the end of the year presser there window is open now but I see your point of view. Quite frankly, I would prefer them to sign a right fielder and a pitcher for the back end of the rotation in free agency than trade for a top of the rotation starter after they fill those holes. Possibly for Lynn.

I agree with this post.  I still think the window can be now and the near future as well.   I just don't want to trade  Vaughn,  kopech or crochet.  I know that's what teams want.  I just don't want the sox to blow their wad on a trade.  I understand they need to eventually trade some prospects because everyone will not pan out or they will be blocked.   Again just my opinion . 

[maloney.adam]

14 minutes ago, Sox80 said:

I agree with this post.  I still think the window can be now and the near future as well.   I just don't want to trade  Vaughn,  kopech or crochet.  I know that's what teams want.  I just don't want the sox to blow their wad on a trade.  I understand they need to eventually trade some prospects because everyone will not pan out or they will be blocked.   Again just my opinion . 

I don’t know if you remember from the presser when Hahn mentioned that they are going to explore the market and see what’s out there. The information or the tweets that are out there is a good indication that this is what’s happening. It can be just all pure speculation too but I’m getting the sense that all of this is what Hahn told us he was going to do. 

Edited November 24, 2020 by maloney.adam

[Bob Sacamano]

4 minutes ago, maloney.adam said:

I don’t know if you remember from the presser when Hahn mentioned that they are going to explore the market and see what’s out there. The information or the tweets that are out there is a good indication that this is what’s happening. It can be just all pure speculation too but I’m getting the sense that all of this is what Hahn told us he was going to do. 

Well that's what GMs do. He wouldn't be doing his job haha

[Sox80]

4 minutes ago, maloney.adam said:

I don’t know if you remember from the presser when Hahn mentioned that they are going to explore the market and see what’s out there. The information or the tweets that are out there is a good indication that this is what’s happening. It can be just all pure speculation too but I’m getting the sense that all of this is what Hahn told us he was going to do. 

 That may be true and I don't disagree that it won't happen.  I just don't want them to trade the 3 I was talking about.  Weather that happens we'll see. 

[maloney.adam]

9 minutes ago, Sox80 said:

 That may be true and I don't disagree that it won't happen.  I just don't want them to trade the 3 I was talking about.  Weather that happens we'll see. 

It doesn’t mean that he will trade them. It’s a good possibility he already has a read on the market and already knows how it’s going to play out. 

Edited November 24, 2020 by maloney.adam

[Sox80]

4 minutes ago, maloney.adam said:

Doesn’t mean that he will trade them. It’s a good possibility that he already has a good read on the market and already knows how it’s going to play out. If he has to give up 3 of his top prospects than he won’t pull the trigger. That’s why he was saying what he was saying in the press conference. 

Gotcha.  I'm just eager to see how this plays out like all of us.   

[fathom]

I’m a believer in Portillos again, as Rosenthal is reporting that Sonny Gray is available. Snell and Gray were two guys Portillos mentioned last week as being on the radar.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

I’m a believer in Portillos again, as Rosenthal is reporting that Sonny Gray is available. Snell and Gray were two guys Portillos mentioned last week as being on the radar.

Which means we should be signing Springer by tomorrow 😉

[Sleepy Harold]

 

 

[Chicago White Sox]

 

[iWiN4PreP]

Why is gray available? It makes no sense unless hes damaged goods

[Chicago White Sox]

So right now if you believe Portillo’s and other various rumors, the cost controlled pitchers that seem to be available are:

1. German Marquez | RHP | 26 | 3 yrs + TO | $12.4M AAV | ‘21 ZIPS = 4.4 fWAR
2. Blake Snell | LHP | 28 | 2 yrs + TO | $13.0M AAV | ‘21 ZIPS = 3.3 fWAR
3. Sonny Gray | RHP | 31 | 2 yrs + TO | $10.7M AAV | ‘21 ZIPS = 3.0 fWAR
4. Yu Darvish | RHP | 34 | 3 yrs | $19.7M AAV | ‘21 ZIPS = 3.1 fWAR
5. Joe Musgrove | RHP | 28 | 2 yrs | TBD - Arb | ‘21 ZIPS = 2.9 fWAR 
6. Lance Lynn | RHP | 33 | 1 yr | $8.0M AAV | ‘21 ZIPS = 3.0 fWAR

In terms of potential acquisition cost, that’s exactly how I’d rank them from most to least expensive.  Ignoring those ZIPS projections (which I think are incredibly conservative for everyone but German), I do think Marquez is a tier above the others when it comes to cost due to the fact he’s the youngest pitcher on the list, he’s coming off a very strong 2020 season / could be viewed as an ascending talent, and has an extra year of team control.  I also would expect a big value gap between Snell & Gray vs. Darvish due to both age (due to regression / injury risk) and the big difference in contracts.

If I were our GM, I’d throw some lines in the Marquez, Snell, & Gray waters, but ultimately I’d be focusing my efforts on Darvish or Lynn due to potential cost.  I really struggle with a Darvish valuation because it’s so uncertain what kind of pitcher you are getting.  If you’re getting the 2020 version, his contract is an absolute steal and he’s easily the best of the six pitchers available.  But if you look at that ZIPS projection, it’s very possible most clubs think last year was an outlier based on their own projection systems even if they are a bit more bullish on him than a 3.1 win forecast.  I don’t know what his price would be, but I don’t see him netting a true blue chipper like Vaughn or Kopech and that’s what we should be trying to avoid at this stage of the rebuild.  The same applies to Lynn, although I think his cost would be even less given teams generally don’t like overpaying for older pitchers on one year deals even if theoretical surplus value shakes out to be about even.  Regardless, I’m looking for a quantity of quality package and trying to hold onto my high-end prospects if at all possible.

Edited November 24, 2020 by Chicago White Sox

[smellysox]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So right now if you believe Portillo’s and other various rumors, the cost controlled pitchers that seem to be available are:

1. German Marquez | RHP | 26 | 3 yrs + TO | $12.4M AAV | ‘21 ZIPS = 4.4 fWAR
2. Blake Snell | LHP | 28 | 2 yrs + TO | $13.0M AAV | ‘21 ZIPS = 3.3 fWAR
3. Sonny Gray | RHP | 31 | 2 yrs + TO | $10.7M AAV | ‘21 ZIPS = 3.0 fWAR
4. Yu Darvish | RHP | 34 | 3 yrs | $19.7M AAV | ‘21 ZIPS = 3.1 fWAR
5. Lance Lynn | RHP | 33 | 1 yr | $8.0M AAV | ‘21 ZIPS = 3.0 fWAR

In terms of potential acquisition cost, that’s exactly how I’d rank them from most to least expensive.  Ignoring those ZIPS projections (which I think are incredibly conservative for everyone but German), I do think Marquez is a tier above the others when it comes to cost due to the fact he’s the youngest pitcher on the list, he’s coming off a very strong 2020 season / could be viewed as an ascending talent, and has an extra year of team control.  I also would expect a big value gap between Snell & Gray vs. Darvish due to both age (due to regression / injury risk) and the big difference in contracts.

If I were our GM, I’d throw some lines in the Marquez, Snell, & Gray waters, but ultimately I’d be focusing my efforts on Darvish or Lynn due to potential cost.  I really struggle with a Darvish valuation because it’s so uncertain what kind of pitcher you are getting.  If you’re getting the 2020 version, his contract is an absolute steal and he’s easily the best of the five pitchers available.  But if you look at that ZIPS projection, it’s very possible most clubs think last year was an outlier based on their own projection systems even if they are a bit more bullish on him than a 3.1 win forecast.  I don’t know what his price would be, but I don’t see him netting a true blue chipper like Vaughn or Kopech and that’s what we should be trying to avoid at this stage of the rebuild.  The same applies to Lynn, although I think his cost would be even less given teams generally don’t like overpaying for older pitchers on one year deals even if theoretical surplus value shakes out to be about even.  Regardless, I’m looking for a quantity of quality package and trying to hold onto my high-end prospects if at all possible.

You dont believe the Musgrove stuff? Someone asked him (I believe yesterday) of all the names being mentioned in trades who do you think the Sox acquire? His opinion -Musgrove. 28, 2 yrs of control.  Probably take. Thompson, Miker Aldofo, and Gladney or something equivalent. The Pittsburgh regime's comfortable with high school talent. 

Darvish is the one I struggle the most with. He had a great year but it's a year that consists of only 2 months. I know that's the way it was for everyone. My point is, the previous year he was good for only the last 2 or 3 months. Can he string together a good 6 mo season? And at 34, 35, 36?

Edited November 24, 2020 by smellysox

[Jnooch]

Heres a long shot for our RF hole. Sox Aquire J Heyward and his gold glove for a very low level prospect or 2 if Cubs eat 35 of his remaining 

65 million dollar contract. He could slide right into the 8 hole and could bolster our defense and add a ton of speed to the bottom of the order. Robert, Hayward and Madrigal at the bottom with TA and Yoan at the top ...... would bolster team defense and team speed.

[Wisebri224]

19 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

We'll have to see about 25% capacity. Covid is just getting worse and worse. People routinely ignore precautions . I don't usually watch TMZ but I left the TV on after a football game and watch reports and film footage of people partying in a strip club with a rapper throwing around his money with people jam packed together and one person with a mask on. I know this isn't typical behavior but it is illuminating that people can be so stupid. Party and looking pretty vs your health and the health of others ? Let's party !

True but at a point we need to realize that people being tested 2-3 times and counting their positives as 3 separate cases increases numbers.  We also need to realize the survival rate for people that get COVID under the age of 65 is 99.994%.  I think business owners will start to realize this as well as start getting pushy.  Like I said, 25% is a start.  Not 100% but having no fans at this point doesn't make a lot of sense to me, but to each their own:)

[Wisebri224]

10 hours ago, Sox80 said:

I agree with this post.  I still think the window can be now and the near future as well.   I just don't want to trade  Vaughn,  kopech or crochet.  I know that's what teams want.  I just don't want the sox to blow their wad on a trade.  I understand they need to eventually trade some prospects because everyone will not pan out or they will be blocked.   Again just my opinion . 

The issue here is how do you trade for a TOR starter without moving one of those guys?  This isn't a video game:).  Either Jerry has to spend money (eat bad contracts to get good players), we bargain basement shop, or we move prospects.  I am a fan of going after Lynn because of the short contract.  It gives you a chance to see if the kids pan out for one more year before you decide if you need to pay big bucks for one more starter.  

[Chicago White Sox]

16 minutes ago, smellysox said:

You dont believe the Musgrove stuff? Someone asked him (I believe yesterday) of all the names being mentioned in trades who do you think the Sox acquire? His opinion -Musgrove. 28, 2 yrs of control.  Probably take. Thompson, Miker Aldofo, and Gladney or something equivalent. The Pittsburgh regime's comfortable with high school talent. 

Whoops, don’t dropped the ball on him.  I’ll add him to the list as he should be included.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

27 minutes ago, smellysox said:

You dont believe the Musgrove stuff? Someone asked him (I believe yesterday) of all the names being mentioned in trades who do you think the Sox acquire? His opinion -Musgrove. 28, 2 yrs of control.  Probably take. Thompson, Miker Aldofo, and Gladney or something equivalent. The Pittsburgh regime's comfortable with high school talent. 

Darvish is the one I struggle the most with. He had a great year but it's a year that consists of only 2 months. I know that's the way it was for everyone. My point is, the previous year he was good for only the last 2 or 3 months. Can he string together a good 6 mo season? And at 34, 35, 36?

Just so we are clear.. Darvish was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball after the first two months in 2019.  He continued it in 2020.

[bmags]

Good thing about musgrove trade - I imagine Cherington will want younger assets. Have to imagine it would need to be recently drafted ones, though, since it would be so hard to have scouting of others.

[maloney.adam]

 

[iWiN4PreP]

11 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I'll just address the not signing Bauer part. More than likely you are correct. But it all depends on if top dollar is the key for him. In the past he has talked about 1 year contracts in order to get the chance to play with a contender every year. With the year he had the 1 year deal is probably history. If the team he signs with doesn't contend then at least 1 opt out in his contract would be wise.

So what else does he think is important ? Pitching every 4th day. In a Covid shortened season I think this can be accomplished. I'm not sure it's wise in a full length season. I'm sure if teams ask him for specific reasons why he thinks he can pitch every 4th day he can give them sound reasons based on his own data. The willingness of a team to do this may play an important role in his decision. This would seem to me to be in the Sox favor since they have so many young arms with so few innings pitched. The more Bauer pitches the less innings Kopech, Crochet, and Dunning will pitch. If Bauer wants to carry a heavy load, let him.

Of course this has to be balanced with concerns that overworking him may increase the chance of getting less value from him should he overload his arm after a Covid shortened season and the chance for another one which would be 2 years straight that all starting pitchers are pitching a lot less innings and once you get back into the full schedule any pitcher going 200+ innings is going to be almost non-existent .

Most of the pundits think the Mets will blow the roof off most offers for Bauer . If he can be had in the $150M range I'd say the Sox have a shot if and only if they let him pitch every 4th day and put some opt outs in his contract. If the Mets offer him $200M I doubt the Sox go that high.

My friend, the sox are not the type of organization to do this stuff. Bauer and his personality do not mesh with thus organization. There is just no chance it happens. I appreciate your optimism tho

[Quin]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

 

Does Sonny Gray really command this price?

This is a genuine question by the way. I might be too clouded by his Yankees days, but I feel like Portillos likes to throw the biggest possible package on the table.

[Tnetennba]

14 minutes ago, Quin said:

Does Sonny Gray really command this price?

This is a genuine question by the way. I might be too clouded by his Yankees days, but I feel like Portillos likes to throw the biggest possible package on the table.

His guesses feel off to me too.  I don't think I could include Heuer or Bummer in such a deal. 

Edited November 24, 2020 by SouthWallace

[scs787]

Is there a reason there's been no talk about Bauer lately? Did I miss something or are we just tired of talking about him.