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Offseason Targets

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54 minutes ago, Baron said:

Herein lies the problem that's been there the entire time. The guy that makes the most sense for this team to acquire (Yes not a free agent) and everyone is balking about what would be a very reasonable asking price. Time to get out of that thinking. Some of these guys won't be spending their careers on the Chicago White Sox. Hate to break it to you. 

 

You have a guy who finished what? 5th in Cy Young voting right? On a cheap contract and is a workhorse. He fits right in at the 2 slot. "Oh god you mean we have to give up something of value to the Rangers for him??!!!!" Yes. Can we take winning seriously please? This is far more realistic than the White Sox shelling about 6-7 years 200+ Million for a top of the rotation pitcher. 

So you waste pieces that could help you in the heart of this run, for a guy who will be gone in a year.  Nah.

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Just now, Flash said:

Its not written in the Bible Lynn can't be extended. 

While very true, I don't want to extend Lynn based on his last two years of performance, mostly because I think they're an outlier. 

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Just now, southsider2k5 said:

So you waste pieces that could help you in the heart of this run, for a guy who will be gone in a year.  Nah.

^^^^^

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Just now, Jack Parkman said:

I don't trust Lynn to keep up that type of production. He had the best years of his career at 32 and 33. That's not likely to continue. If you want Lynn, either get him for your price or wait until 2022 when he's free again, and will take a Charlie Morton type 2 year deal. 

The way Lynn has reinvented himself has me believing that he will be great for at least one more year

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15 minutes ago, bmags said:

Soxtalk player comps continue to just be the bane of my existence.

That's a good one. The cavalier use of the word elite is mine.  

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Just now, southsider2k5 said:

So you waste pieces that could help you in the heart of this run, for a guy who will be gone in a year.  Nah.

Trading for Lynn cannot be considered a waste. 

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27 minutes ago, fathom said:

He was never a huge “stuff” guy

When you compare him to the Cease/Kopech/Crochet segment of the world, he does not stack up.  But he definitely has more "pitchability" than those guys combined have.  Dunning screams 15 year major leaguer to me.

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Lance Lynn 9 year career

ERA: 3.57 FIP: 3.62

Last 2 years:

ERA: 3.49 FIP: 3.66

 

 

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Dunning has a very limited ceiling in my opinion. Sinker ballers are going extinct for a reason. 

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Just now, Orlando said:

The way Lynn has reinvented himself has me believing that he will be great for at least one m.21 Eore year

I think Lynn had like a 4.2 ERA in September while being ridiculous in July/August. I'm just not sure how much you can take from a veteran player's performance in 60 games, whether good or bad. 

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18 minutes ago, Baron said:

There's no guarantee Cease is even good. There's no guarantee Dunning is good. Both of them were spotty. There's no guarantee the sun comes up tomorrow. 

Lance Lynn's arm could also fall off tomorrow if you want to be pedantic about it.

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Just now, Orlando said:

Dunning has a very limited ceiling in my opinion. Sinker ballers are going extinct for a reason. 

I do think he can evolve. His curve flashed as VERY good, but he barely threw it. Nobody on the sox uses their curve. Maybe that changes with new PC.

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1 minute ago, bmags said:

Lance Lynn 9 year career

ERA: 3.57 FIP: 3.62

Last 2 years:

ERA: 3.49 FIP: 3.66

 

 

I'm fine with renting him, but not for Cease or Dunning (and I don't like Cease that much either) 

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Just now, bmags said:

I do think he can evolve. His curve flashed as VERY good, but he barely threw it. Nobody on the sox uses their curve. Maybe that changes with new PC.

Maybe, but do we risk being as good as possible in 2021 hoping he evolves quick enough to factor into the window?

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3 minutes ago, Orlando said:

Trading for Lynn cannot be considered a waste. 

It covers one season, and costs you some amount of capital that can be helping you in years 2-6 of this run.  If I am trading those kinds of guys, I want a difference maker that will be around.

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Just now, Orlando said:

Maybe, but do we risk being as good as possible in 2021 hoping he evolves quick enough to factor into the window?

I don't. But obviously the ideal is keeping the higher level depth of kopech/dunning/cease/stiever and swapping out lower-level potential. Stiever would be first to go, obviously.

 

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Just now, Orlando said:

Maybe, but do we risk being as good as possible in 2021 hoping he evolves quick enough to factor into the window?

That's why you buy talent instead of trading for it. I'd trade Cease or Dunning(but not both) for Darvish, even though he's expensive because he has a long track record of being a legit #2 with ace stretches. He still has TOR stuff as well. 

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32 minutes ago, bmags said:

I'm not sure I believe in Q producing much anymore. Quintana without excellent home run suppression has been just average. His FB velo has tailed off. His changeup looks like it could become a new weapon.

He's gone from the fastball away, curveball, ride 2-seamer in to the high fb/curveball craze. And when he gets his fastball up it does kinda work, he gets a lot of swing and miss that way. But I wonder if when he's missing, he's missing low, as his basehits used to be on outside corner (where he located everything) with his fastball to now thigh-high all over the plate. His barrel% is a lot higher. It's just not working as well and one thing with Q is we knew he always had less margin for error.

Love the guy, and that's probably fine for a #4/5 guy, but I could see it being "Ivan Nova first half with sox" kinda bad.

 

yeah, I think him being a #5 by end of season with kopech slotting into the playoff rotation would be my expectation and good case scenario. 
Gio/Lynn/Keuchel/Kopech could be a pretty great playoff rotation if they all are clicking. 

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12 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't trust Lynn to keep up that type of production. He had the best years of his career at 32 and 33. That's not likely to continue. If you want Lynn, either get him for your price or wait until 2022 when he's free again, and will take a Charlie Morton type 2 year deal. 

That’s my issue too. We wouldn’t necessarily be buying Lynn’s previous production at this age. Furthermore, another year removed from surgery, it’s possible Dunning takes another step forward.

In sports it’s never as simple as extrapolating past performance.

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13 minutes ago, Orlando said:

2021 is so much more important for the Sox right now and I know Giolito, Lynn and Keuchel is a real playoff top 3. 

Not it isn't.  There is nothing that makes 2021 an "all in" year.

And if Lynn is a top 5 pitcher in baseball (or even if he isn't, which he isn't) then sign him next year

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2 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Not it isn't.  There is nothing that makes 2021 an "all in" year.

And if Lynn is a top 5 pitcher in baseball (or even if he isn't, which he isn't) then sign him next year

The "all in" year is 2023 if they can't extend Giolito. 

What threw the timing off a bit was Kopech and Dunning going down to TJS when they did. It just sucked. They were both ready to make the jump to MLB. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

The "all in" year is 2023 if they can't extend Giolito. 

I’m going to have to disagree. Our window is open now and we are in win now mode.

Edited by maloney.adam

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3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

The "all in" year is 2023 if they can't extend Giolito. 

There should be no "all-in" years from where the Sox are now. Every year for the foreseeable future should be a playoff team, with a chance to win (unless they decide to resume their 2014-16 clown show).

The Sox had a losing record against playoff teams last year...playoff teams that went 1-12 in the playoffs.  The Sox aren't 1 or 2 players away from being WS favorites (which is darn well where you need to be if you are going "all in").

Edited by GreenSox

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Just now, maloney.adam said:

I’m going to have to disagree. Our window is open now and we are in win now mode.

This is the first offseason in which the window is officially open. Be patient and see what you have in your guys before making moves. 

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Just now, Jack Parkman said:

The "all in" year is 2023 if they can't extend Giolito. 

The Cubs rebuild went very similar...and they had a "suprise" good team a year early and won the world series the next season. Sox had their surprise year in 2020 and 2021 should be all in with one more starter, right? What is holding them back since every position player is basically locked in. 

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