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Offseason Targets

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1) Do you have any idea how much better a healthy Chris Sale is than Keuchel?  A significant upgrade is in itself a purpose.

2) Adding more SP I already addressed.  By sending out Keuchel's salary we could theoretically also still add another SP this offseason.  IMO Bauer and Stroman both, and also maybe Gausman, are better than Keuchel.  Paxton and Tanaka if healthy are also better.  There are some real options to make 2 improvements over the guy that Keuchel will be in 2021 through 2023.

3) McCann is a FA.  We maybe can have him back if we want him but he's the biggest C target on the FA market IMO, because only Realmuto is better, but because Realmuto is actually great and will want lots of money and years, only a handful of teams will even bother to bid on him, leaving McCann as the best C target available most likely for most teams.  Even if we could sign him back, Vazquez is a most likely a better player on paper, and Vazquez is already on a much better (and cheaper) contract than McCann will get as a FA.

Edited by YourWhatHurts

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2 minutes ago, pcq said:

Chris Sale MLB RIP LOL

What makes you think he will not recover from TJ?

Maybe ptatc could talk about this, or someone who actually has a reason why he wouldn't recover.  Realistically, this org knows him better, and has treated his body better, than anyone else.  If our people thought he would recover then yes it would be a risk, but one that could offer a potentially huge reward. 

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5 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

1) Do you have any idea how much better a healthy Chris Sale is than Keuchel?  A significant upgrade is in itself a purpose.

2) Adding more SP I already addressed.  By sending out Keuchel's salary we could theoretically also still add another SP this offseason.  IMO Bauer and Stroman both, and also maybe Gausman, are better than Keuchel.  Paxton and Tanaka if healthy are also better.  There are some real options to make 2 improvements over the guy that Keuchel will be in 2021.

3) McCann is a FA.  We maybe can have him back if we want him but he's the biggest C target on the FA market IMO, because only Realmuto is better, but because Realmuto is actually great and will want lots of money and years, only a handful of teams will even bother to bid on him, leaving McCann as the best C target available most likely for most teams.  Even if we could sign him back, Vazquez is a most likely a better player on paper, and Vazquez is already on a much better (and cheaper) contract than McCann will get as a FA.

Yes, I do. You're missing my point. We need to acquire more starting pitching. And we can do that without worrying that much about salary; I don't think that's exactly necessary. Trading our literal best for another one is counterproductive; it doesn't address any problems at all. We should be focused on simply adding more pitching, not trading quality starters for other quality starters. It literally does nothing to fix our actual problem.

Aside from that, trading Grandal is a mixed bag possibility. I still think we should try to lock up McCann. If it's established we are trading Grandal, it means McCann gets what he wants, which is a starting position job. This wold be an easily possible scenario. Why trade for anther catcher then? Pitching is what we need.

Edited by KonerkoFan1

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Just now, KonerkoFan1 said:

Yes, I do. You're missing my point. We need to acquire more starting pitching. Trading our literal best for another one is counterproductive; it doesn't address any problems at all. We should be focused on simply adding more pitching, not trading quality starters for other quality starters. It litereally does nothing to fix our actual problem.

Aside from that, trading Grandal is a mixed bag possibility. I still think we should try to lock up McCann. If it's established we are trading Grandal, it means McCann gets what he wants, which is a starting position job. This wold be an easily possible scenario. Why trade for anther catcher then? Pitching is what we need.

Keuchel is getting 56M over the next three years, an AAV of 18.667M per season.  He also likely overachieved last year.  We are basically already hoping he is worth his contract the next three seasons.  His present performance ceiling also is one which is much easier to replace in house than Sale's performance ceiling pre-TJ.  It's not like he's some great SP who isn't already taking up a decent chunk of payroll.  And we're still paying him through his age 35 season.

Again, Vazquez is better than McCann anyway.  And McCann's FA deal is going to be a lot more than he was getting now, and more than Vazquez is signed for as it is.  And who would take Grandal?  I think the Red Sox are one of the few teams would, but most likely, those teams will want to send out salary in the deal.  And I would not just trade Grandal for the sake of it, then have no C, then bid on McCann as a FA, only to get outbid and left overpaying Mike Zunino on a 3 year deal or something like that.  That's a terrible plan.

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3 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

Keuchel is getting 56M over the next three years, an AAV of 18.667M per season.  He also likely overachieved last year.  We are basically already hoping he is worth his contract the next three seasons.  His present performance ceiling also is one which is much easier to replace in house than Sale's performance ceiling pre-TJ.  It's not like he's some great SP who isn't already taking up a decent chunk of payroll.  And we're still paying him through his age 35 season.

Again, Vazquez is better than McCann anyway.  And McCann's FA deal is going to be a lot more than he was getting now, and more than Vazquez is signed for as it is.  And who would take Grandal?  I think the Red Sox are one of the few teams would, but most likely, those teams will want to send out salary in the deal.  And I would not just trade Grandal for the sake of it, then have no C, then bid on McCann as a FA, only to get outbid and left overpaying Mike Zunino on a 3 year deal or something like that.  That's a terrible plan.

So you want to abandon ship on our best pitcher and assume he will only get worse and make big trades that literally solve none of our problems. I guess you were one who didn't want to sign him in the first place. And Sale might be damaged goods anyway. Why engage in a trade with so much risk activity on both sides?

If this is the case, just trade Grandal and more for pitching, sign McCann to a deal and don't waste resources on a catcher when you don't need one.



Or... just don't do any of this because none of it is really addressing any of our issues, lol.

Payroll should not be that big of a concern right now. We're only going to go backwards. All these gymnastics to attempt to save a few bucks and avoid a potential risk we shouldn't worry about... to take on a possibly much bigger risk?

This is all one big headscratcher.

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13 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

1) Do you have any idea how much better a healthy Chris Sale is than Keuchel?  A significant upgrade is in itself a purpose.

2) Adding more SP I already addressed.  By sending out Keuchel's salary we could theoretically also still add another SP this offseason.  IMO Bauer and Stroman both, and also maybe Gausman, are better than Keuchel.  Paxton and Tanaka if healthy are also better.  There are some real options to make 2 improvements over the guy that Keuchel will be in 2021 through 2023.

3) McCann is a FA.  We maybe can have him back if we want him but he's the biggest C target on the FA market IMO, because only Realmuto is better, but because Realmuto is actually great and will want lots of money and years, only a handful of teams will even bother to bid on him, leaving McCann as the best C target available most likely for most teams.  Even if we could sign him back, Vazquez is a most likely a better player on paper, and Vazquez is already on a much better (and cheaper) contract than McCann will get as a FA.

Sale had Tommy John surgery on March 30. He will not pitch a full season in 2021.

Sale will cost more money in 2021 than Keuchel. That would potentially limit what the Sox could spend on additional pitching.

McCann being a FA is the least of why the Sox will not trade Grandal. Vazquez brings nothing to the table.

And thats not even addressing the Red Sox side of the whole equation.

This trade proposal is not the worst I've ever seen, but it is definitely a strong contender.

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50 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

Crazy but IMO actually sensible deal if the Red Sox want to dump salary:

Sale + Vazquez for Grandal + Keuchel + Lopez + Rodon + Mazara, pre-nontender deadline

Why for Sox:  They are probably looking at trying to dump Rodon and Mazara anyway, and probably looking at least at a change of scenery deal with Lopez.  They effectively swap out Keuchel's spot and contract for Sale's, meaning that there's more risk and more money, but way more upside also.  Vazquez slots in at C and Collins sits behind him.  In reality, Vazquez is an upgrade over Grandal as a C immediately, and he is under control through 2022 with also a chance at a QO if he is worthy for 2023.  Grandal is guaranteed through 2023 so it's almost a wash on control, and Vazquez is more easily extendable for 2023-2024 because his current contract basically would mean that the Sox have him by the balls a bit.  I bet Hahn could extend Vazquez's deal.

Why for Red Sox: They get to dump all of the remaining salary owed to Sale.  Also they can choose whether they want to try to take a shot on Rodon as a SP or closer as a deadline piece, and a shot at Mazara also as a deadline trade piece.  Keuchel gives them rotation certainty at a much more reasonable cost and Grandal really fits the Red Sox as a part time C part time DH with OBP and power.  Lopez is also a reclamation project they have rotation space form, but one they could try to keep if they can fix him.  If the Red Sox wanted they could nontender everyone but Keuchel and Grandal.

Not sure on arb raises but in 2020 salary the Sox send out 18.25M for Grandal + 18M for Keuchel + 4.45M for Rodon + 5.56M for Mazara + 0.605M for Lopez = 46.865M in 2020 salary, and send out 110.75M in guaranteed obligations to Keuchel (56M through 2023) and Grandal (54.75M through 2023).  Meanwhile the Red Sox send out 30M for Sale + 4.2M for Vazquez = 34.2M in 2020 salary and send out 142.25M in guaranteed obligations to Sale (135M through 2025) and Vazquez (6.25M in 2021 with a club option on 2022 for 7M with a 0.25M buyout).  The Sox would take on about 31M more in guaranteed money but would get Sale through 2025 and Vazquez through at least 2022, again with a great chance of keeping him beyond that point.

Personally I would chance it with Sale if the medical staff and pitching coaches could look at him.  The contract lessens in value over time, down to 27.5M then 20M in 2025 for his age 36 season.  We would be betting on a successful return from TJ and paying for his age 32, 33, 34, 35, and 36 seasons, probably hoping we get some help in the second half of 2021, an ace in 2022-23, maybe a #3 in 2024, and a #5 or reliever in 2025.  

**Edit: I like this deal because it redirects 2 contracts that I think are going to be at least somewhat regretful in 2022-23 anyway, and allows us a chance to put a legit #1 and a LHP at the top of our rotation (again) while making a defensive upgrade at C for our playoff window.  And hopefully it would keep enough salary available to still go after Stroman/Bauer/etc. this offseason.  I really am not a huge fan of Grandal behind the plate overall and as a leader of the pitching staff and defense, and I also don't like him taking DH ABs from Eloy who should be there now and Abreu who should be there pretty soon.  And additionally I still think Keuchel is more likely to be a #3-#5 than the top-end guy he pitched like this season, and the guy who once won a Cy Young.

Your what hurts?

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Whatever.  I was throwing it out there.  I'm not going to argue with you fools.

If Sale is healthy that trade is an absolute raping of the Red Sox, leveraging their fear of guaranteed money and need to rebuild or retool against them and to our benefit.  

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1 minute ago, YourWhatHurts said:

Whatever.  I was throwing it out there.  I'm not going to argue with you fools.

If Sale is healthy that trade is an absolute raping of the Red Sox, leveraging their fear of guaranteed money and need to rebuild or retool against them and to our benefit.  

Us "fools" clearly explained why this proposal is silly.

If your whole proposal is based on an "If Sale is healthy" it only proves our point more.

Let this one go. There's no point to it and there's a lot of better directions to go in.

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1 hour ago, YourWhatHurts said:

Sale + Vazquez for Grandal + Keuchel + Lopez + Rodon + Mazara, pre-nontender deadline

This is what hurts.

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11 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

Whatever.  I was throwing it out there.  I'm not going to argue with you fools.

If Sale is healthy that trade is an absolute raping of the Red Sox, leveraging their fear of guaranteed money and need to rebuild or retool against them and to our benefit.  

Lol

 

i know what’s hurting on you!

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11 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

Whatever.  I was throwing it out there.  I'm not going to argue with you fools.

If Sale is healthy that trade is an absolute raping of the Red Sox, leveraging their fear of guaranteed money and need to rebuild or retool against them and to our benefit.  

Sale was dealing with shoulder and elbow issues ala Rodon but I only play a doctor on Facebook. I would just be leery. 

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Bauer and Springer- make it rain Reinsdorf.

If he is unable or worse unwilling after almost 40 years to turn this organization into the major market juggernaut it should have always been,  then it's time to let it go to an affluent group of hungry sportsmen.

Chicago is only major market that would have stood for this nonsense for this long.

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Bashing JR never gets old. It's his toy like it or not. 

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FWIW Merkin did a mailbag today and was asked about pitching. 
 

Will the White Sox look to add a number two/three type pitcher or a back end guy and hope either Dylan Cease/Dane Dunning orMichael Kopech can fill the three spot?
-- Jon, Grafton, Wis., @chisoxjon

Add a couple of solid starters and slot them in where needed, as opposed to worrying about adding a one, two or three. Think along the lines of a starter such as Jake Odorizzi.

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2 hours ago, YourWhatHurts said:

Whatever.  I was throwing it out there.  I'm not going to argue with you fools.

If Sale is healthy that trade is an absolute raping of the Red Sox, leveraging their fear of guaranteed money and need to rebuild or retool against them and to our benefit.  

Chris Sale is not healthy though and we would never be able to sign a premier free agent again if we made this trade.

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5 hours ago, YourWhatHurts said:

Crazy but IMO actually sensible deal if the Red Sox want to dump salary:

Sale + Vazquez for Grandal + Keuchel + Lopez + Rodon + Mazara, pre-nontender deadline

Been spending too much time on MLB the Show, ehh?

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23 minutes ago, whitesoxbrad said:

Thank you Orlando for always giving us this type of interesting info, it is much appreciated.

My pleasure. I spend too much time in Twitter lol

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42 minutes ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

If only we had traded for Mookie~

And given him a 318 million dollar deal. Yea, those things were sure to happen.

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